Rupiah, ringgit poised

best weekly gains

for

The rupiah and the ringgit on Friday headed for their best weekly gains
since 2001 and 1998 respectively as Indonesia and Malaysia benefited
from rallying share markets, rebounding commodity prices and signs the
Federal Reserve wont raise interest rates this year.
The rupiah jumped 3.8% to 13,371 a dollar as of 12.22pm in Jakarta,
taking its advance this week to 9.5%, prices from local banks show. The
ringgit surged 2.9% on Friday and 7.3% since Oct 2 to 4.1165. This weeks
rally came after the Malaysian and Indonesian currencies lost 14% and
9%, respectively, last quarter.
Disappointing US jobs data that pushed back expectations for when the
worlds largest economy would raise borrowing costs spurred gains in
emerging-market stocks and currencies this week and that was reinforced
by the overnight release of minutes from the Feds September meeting.

Resurgent oil and commodity prices have also benefited Malaysia and
Indonesia, and traders have been unwinding bets that the nations
currencies would keep falling through the end of the year.
What were seeing is that people are continuing to cover their short
positions in the two currencies, said Divya Devesh, Standard Chartered
Plcs Asian foreign-exchange-strategist in Singapore. Its going to be
critical to watch China data because that could be the turning point and
the rally isnt supported by fundamentals, he said.
Dead-Cat Bounce
The benchmark share gauge in Kuala Lumpur has gained 5% this week
and the Jakarta Composite Index has surged 9.4%. Foreign funds bought a
net $148 million of Indonesian stocks in the first four days of the week, set
for the biggest inflow since April, exchange data show.
Brent crude is up 12% this week, while a Bloomberg index of raw
materials has risen 3.6%. Malaysia, Asias only major net oil exporter,
derives about 22% of state revenue from crude, while Indonesias
economy is dependent on exports of coal, palm oil and metals.
The reliance on commodities has contributed to Malaysia and Indonesia
being among the worst-affected Asian economies this year as growth in
China slowed and the United States moved toward raising interest rates.
Indonesian exports fell for 11 consecutive months through August, while
investor confidence in Malaysia has been shaken by allegations of
corruption against Prime Minister Najib Razak.
What were having is a magnificent dead-cat bounce, said Michael
Every, the Hong Kong-based head of financial markets research at
Rabobank Group. The underlying problems have not gone away in any
way, shape or form. We had maybe gone too bearish too quickly before
but now were getting too bullish too fast.
Fed Concerns
The Feds September minutes showed officials are concerned about
Chinas slowdown and the risk of the strengthening dollar weighing on US
exports.
Indonesian bonds have rallied this week, pushing the yield on the notes
due September 2026 down 62 basis points to 8.76%, according to the
Inter Dealer Market Association. The 10-year Malaysian yield was steady
at 4.13%, prices from Bursa Malaysia show.

The ringgit is still the worst-performing currency in Asia this year with a
15% decline, while the rupiah has dropped 7.6%. Overseas investors
pulled around $2 billion from Indonesian stocks and local-currency
sovereign bonds last quarter. Foreign funds have sold a net 18.3 billion
ringgit ($4.4 billion) of Malaysian shares this year.
Investors are rushing in to buy emerging-market assets that saw the
biggest losses, said David Sumual, Jakarta-based chief economist at PT
Bank Central Asia. The gains have been too fast and too steep, so some
are bracing for an equally dramatic turn if sentiment were to turn for the
worse.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asean/724872/rupiah-ringgit-poised-for-bestweekly-gains
Rupiah dan ringgit pada hari Jumat menuju kenaikan mingguan terbaik mereka
sejak tahun 2001 dan 1998 masing-masing sebagai Indonesia dan Malaysia
manfaat dari rally pasar saham, rebound harga komoditas dan tanda-tanda
Federal Reserve tidak akan menaikkan suku bunga tahun ini.
Rupiah melonjak 3,8% ke 13.371 dolar per 12:22 di Jakarta, mengambil muka
pekan ini menjadi 9,5%, harga dari bank lokal menunjukkan. Ringgit melonjak
2,9% pada hari Jumat dan 7,3% sejak 2 Oktober untuk 4,1165. Reli minggu ini
terjadi setelah mata uang Malaysia dan Indonesia kehilangan, 14% dan 9%
masing-masing, kuartal terakhir.
Mengecewakan data pekerjaan AS yang mendorong kembali harapan untuk
ketika ekonomi terbesar dunia akan menaikkan biaya pinjaman memacu
keuntungan di saham emerging-market dan mata uang minggu ini dan yang
diperkuat oleh rilis semalam menit dari pertemuan September Fed.
Harga minyak dan komoditas bangkit juga memiliki manfaat Malaysia dan
Indonesia, dan pedagang telah unwinding taruhan bahwa mata uang negaranegara 'akan tetap jatuh melalui akhir tahun.
"Apa yang kita lihat adalah bahwa orang-orang terus menutup posisi pendek
mereka dalam dua mata uang," kata Divya Devesh, Asia valuta asing-strategi
Standard Chartered Plc di Singapura. "Ini akan menjadi penting untuk menonton
Data China karena itu bisa menjadi titik balik" dan reli tidak didukung oleh
fundamental, katanya.
'Mati-Cat Bounce'
Benchmark saham pengukur di Kuala Lumpur telah mendapatkan 5% minggu ini
dan IHSG telah melonjak 9,4%. Dana asing membeli bersih $ 148.000.000 saham
Indonesia dalam empat hari pertama minggu itu, ditetapkan untuk inflow
terbesar sejak April, pertukaran data menunjukkan.
Minyak mentah Brent naik 12% minggu ini, sementara indeks Bloomberg bahan
baku telah meningkat 3,6%. Malaysia, hanya eksportir minyak bersih utama di

Asia, berasal sekitar 22% dari penerimaan negara dari minyak mentah,
sementara perekonomian Indonesia tergantung pada ekspor batubara, minyak
sawit dan logam.
Ketergantungan pada komoditas telah memberikan kontribusi ke Malaysia dan
Indonesia menjadi salah satu negara Asia yang terkena dampak terburuk tahun
ini karena pertumbuhan di Cina melambat dan Amerika Serikat bergerak menuju
menaikkan suku bunga.
Ekspor Indonesia turun selama 11 bulan berturut-turut sampai Agustus,
sementara kepercayaan investor di Malaysia telah terguncang oleh tuduhan
korupsi terhadap Perdana Menteri Najib Razak.
"Apa yang kami memiliki adalah megah mati-kucing bouncing," kata Michael
Setiap, kepala berbasis di Hong Kong penelitian pasar keuangan di Rabobank
Group. "Masalah yang mendasari belum pergi dengan cara apapun, bentuk atau
bentuk. Kami telah mungkin sudah terlalu bearish terlalu cepat sebelum tapi
sekarang kita sudah terlalu bullish terlalu cepat. "
Kekhawatiran Fed
The Fed menit September menunjukkan para pejabat prihatin
perlambatan China dan risiko penguatan dolar membebani ekspor AS.

tentang

Obligasi Indonesia telah rally minggu ini, mendorong hasil pada catatan karena
September 2026 turun 62 basis poin menjadi 8,76%, menurut Inter Dealer
Market Association. 10-tahun yield Malaysia stabil di 4,13%, harga dari Bursa
Malaysia menunjukkan.
Ringgit masih mata uang dengan performa terburuk di Asia tahun ini dengan
penurunan 15%, sedangkan rupiah telah turun 7,6%. Investor luar negeri
menarik sekitar $ 2 miliar dari saham dan obligasi Indonesia berdaulat mata
uang lokal kuartal terakhir. Dana asing telah menjual bersih 18,3 miliar ringgit ($
4,4 milyar) saham Malaysia tahun ini.
"Investor bergegas untuk membeli aset emerging-market yang melihat kerugian
terbesar," kata David Sumual, kepala ekonom yang berbasis di Jakarta di PT Bank
Central Asia. "Keuntungan telah terlalu cepat dan terlalu curam, sehingga
beberapa yang menguatkan untuk giliran sama dramatis jika sentimen yang
mengubah menjadi buruk."