60%

High
Introduce the Product Globally

2000000 1150000
-850000

530000

40%
Low
450000 -400000

Keep Sales Only in North America

200000

0
50%
High

2
1139000

30%
Low

Market Globally

2000000

2
0

425000

-600000

425000

50%
Low
450000

Drop Product
Evaluate in North American Test Market

-200000

-200000 1139000
Keep Sales Only In North America
1200000 1000000
90%
High
70%
High

Market Globally

2000000

2
0 1445000

-200000 1445000

10%
Low
450000

Drop Product
=

-200000

1150000

Risk Profile
Terminal Analysis
Global Marketing Response
Global Marketing Response
Global Marketing Response
Global Marketing Response

Column1
Column2
Net Revenue
Probability
$1,200,000.00
-$350,000.00
$1,600,000.00
$50,000.00

High (After Low Response in NAT)

Low (After Low Response in NAT)
High (After High Response in NAT)
Low (After High Response in NAT)

-400000

0
Sensitivity Analysis
P(North American Test Market Response High)

1200000
1200000

-350000
-350000

-200000

1000000

1600000
1600000

50000
50000

-200000

Expected Value
Decision
1139000 Evaluate in NAT
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
0.90

0.15
0.15
0.63
0.07