QTTC MR - LOC PDF

CHNG 1: KHI QUT V TCDN
KHI NIM
- Ti chnh doanh nghip l tng hp cc mi quan

h kinh t pht sinh trong qu trnh to lp v s
dng cc ngun qu trong doanh nghip.
I. Khi nim
II. Chc nng ca ti chnh doanh nghip
- Qun tr ti chnh l vic huy ng, phn b v

qun l cc ngun lc ca cng ty nhm ti a ho
gi tr ca cng ty.
III. Mc tiu ca qun tr ti chnh doanh nghip

IV. Vai tr ca gim c ti chnh
CHC NNG CA TI CHNH DN
MC TIU CA QUN TR TI CHNH

Mc tiu ca doanh nghip: Ti a ho li nhun
Mc tiu ca cc ch s hu: ti a ho gi tr TS
Huy ng cc ngun qu (quyt nh ti tr)

S dng cc ngun qu (quyt nh u t)
=> Ti a ho gi tr ti sn ca ch s hu
Ti a ho li nhun sau thu
Ti a ho EPS
Ti a ho gi tr c phiu:
Yu t thi gian ca thu nhp

Yu t ri ro ca thu nhp
3
VAI TR CA GIM C TI CHNH
m bo ngun ti chnh cho doanh nghip

Huy ng vn vi chi ph thp nht
S dng hiu qu cc ngun vn
Phn tch tnh hnh ti chnh
CHNG 2: PHN TCH BO CO

TI CHNH
BNG CN I K TON
(1)
NI DUNG CH YU
Ti sn
Khi qut cc bo co ti chnh ca cng ty
Ti sn ngn hn
Phn tch cc t s ti chnh
Tin v cc khon tng ng tin
Phn tch ti chnh bng s Dupont
Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn

Cc khon phi thu
Hng tn kho
Ti sn ngn hn khc
1
BNG CN I K TON
(2)
NGUN VN
N phi tr
Ti sn di hn
Cc khon phi thu di hn
N ngn hn
Ti sn c nh
N di hn
Bt ng sn u t
Vn ch s hu
Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn
Vn ch s hu
Ti sn di hn khc
Ngun kinh ph v qu khc

3
BO CO KT QU HOT NG SN XUT
KINH DOANH (1)
BO CO KT QU HOT NG SN XUT
KINH DOANH (2)
Doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v
Chi ph qun l doanh nghip
Cc khon gim tr doanh thu
Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh
Doanh thu thun v bn hng v cung cp dch v
Thu nhp khc
Gi vn hng bn
Chi ph khc
Li nhun gp v bn hng v cung cp dch v
Li nhun khc
Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh
Tng li nhun k ton trc thu
Chi ph ti chnh
Thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Chi ph bn hng
Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip

5
BO CO LU CHUYN TIN T
(CASH FLOW)
PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNH

DOANH NGHIP L G?
Phn nh s thay i v tin mt do cc hot ng

sn xut kinh doanh gy ra
Ni dung:
Phn tch bo co ti chnh ca doanh nghip l vic

s dng s liu trong cc bo co ti chnh nh gi
hot ng ca doanh nghip.
Dng tin t hot ng sn xut kinh doanh
Thng tin phn tch cc t s ti chnh l t:
Dng tin t hot ng u t
- Bng cn i k ton
Dng tin t hot ng ti chnh
- Bo co kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh
Tin mt u nm
Tin mt cui nm
7
TI SAO PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNH

LI CN THIT?
PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

(1)
Gip cc nh qun l doanh nghip phn tch, nh

gi, trn c s ra cc quyt nh ci thin hiu
qu hot ng ca doanh nghip
Cc t s thanh khon (thanh ton)
Gip cc nh cung cp tn dng nh gi kh nng tr

n ca cng ty
RC =
Gip cc nh u t nh gi li nhun, ri ro v
trin vng pht trin ca cng ty
T s thanh ton hin thi (Rc)

Ti sn lu ng
Cc khon n ngn hn
RC (2005) =
761
486
= 1,57
10

(2)

(3)
Cc t s hot ng
T s thanh ton nhanh (RQ)

Ti sn lu ng - Hng ha tn kho
RQ =
Cc khon n ngn hn
RQ (2005) =
761 - 269
486
T s vng quay hng tn kho (RI)
RI =
= 1,01
Gi vn hng bn
Hng ha tn kho (bnh qun)
RI (2005) =
11
1.655
(269 + 280)/2
= 6,03
12

(4)

(5)
K thu tin bnh qun (RT)
Hiu qu s dng TSC
Cc khon phi thu bnh qun

RT =
Doanh thu thun

RF =
Doanh thu bnh qun mt ngy
Hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn
(294 + 270)/2
RT =
Tng gi tr TSC (bnh qun)
= 45,5 ngy
Doanh thu thun
2.260/365
RA =
Tng gi tr ti sn (bnh qun)
13

(6)

(7)
Cc t s v n cn n
Hiu qu s dng TSC
2.262
RF (2005) =
T s n trn ti sn (RD)
Tng s n
RD =
Tng ti sn
= 2,10
(1.118 + 1.035)/2
Hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn
T s n trn vn ch s hu (RE)
Tng s n
RE =
Vn ch s hu
2.262
RA (2005) =
14
= 1,25
(1.879 + 1.742)/2
15
16

(8)

(9)
T s kh nng thanh ton li vay (RP)
RD (2005) =
1.074
1.879
1.074
RE (2005) =
805
EBIT
= 0,57
RP =
= 1,33
Chi ph li vay
RP (2005) =
219
49
= 4,47
17

(10)

(11)
Cc t s v li nhun
T s li nhun rng trn tng ti sn (ROA)
T s li nhun rng trn doanh thu (ROS)
ROA =
Li nhun rng
ROS =
Li nhun rng
Tng ti sn bnh qun
T l li nhun rng trn vn ch s hu (ROE)
Doanh thu thun

86
ROS (2005) =
18
ROE =
= 0,038 (3,8%)
2.262
19
Li nhun rng
Vn ch s hu bnh qun
20

(12)
ROA (2005) =
ROE (2005) =
Cc t s gi th trng
86
(1.879 + 1.742)/2
86
(805 + 725)/2

(13)
= 4,8 %
T s gi trn thu nhp (P/E)

Gi c phiu
P/E =
Li nhun trn c phiu
= 11,2 %
T s gi th trng trn gi s sch (M/B)

Th gi ca c phiu
M/B =
Mnh gi ca c phiu
21
PHN TCH TI CHNH DOANH NGHIP
So snh cc t s ti chnh ca doanh nghip vi ch

s bnh qun chung ca ngnh
So snh cc t s ti chnh qua cc nm thy
c xu hng tt hn hay xu i
Phn tch c cu xc nh xu hng thay i ca
tng khon mc
23
22

BNG S DUPONT
Trnh by mi quan h gia ROE, ROA, ROS v cc
b phn c lin quan
nh gi tc ng ca tng b phn n t s ny
Li nhun rng
ROA =
Doanh thu thun

x
Doanh thu thun
Tng ti sn
ROA = ROS x Vng quay tng ti sn

24

BNG S DUPONT
Li nhun rng
ROE =
Tng ti sn
x
Tng ti sn
Vn ch s hu
ROE = ROA x H s vn ch s hu
Li nhun rng
ROE =
Doanh thu
x
Doanh thu
Tng ti sn
x
Tng ti sn
Vn CSH
25
CHNG 3: GI TR THI GIAN CA

TIN T
LI N, LI KP
Li n (Simple interest)
NI DUNG
Li n l s tin li ch tnh trn s tin gc m

khng tnh trn s tin li do s tin gc sinh ra.
Li n, li kp
Gi tr tng lai ca mt khon tin hin ti
SI = P0 (i) (n)
Gi tr hin ti ca mt khon tin trong tng lai
Li kp (Compound interest)
Gi tr tng lai ca mt dng tin
Li kp l s tin li khng ch tnh trn s tin

gc m cn tnh trn s tin li do s tin gc sinh
ra.
Gi tr hin ti ca mt dng tin

Li sut danh ngha, li sut hiu dng
1
GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON

TIN HIN TI (1)
GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON

TIN HIN TI (2)
V d: Nu bn gi vo ngn hng 10 triu ng

ngy hm nay, vi li sut 8%/nm, th sau 2 nm
bn s c bao nhiu tin?
PV: Gi tr ca mt khon tin hin ti

i: Li sut ca mt k hn tnh li
n: S k hn; FV: Gi tr tng lai
8%
FV1: PV + PV (i) = PV(1+i)

FV2: PV(1+i) + PV(1+i)i = PV(1+i)(1+i) = PV(1+i)2
10.000.000
FV3: PV(1+i)2 + PV(1+i)2i = PV(1+i)2(1+i) = PV(1+i)3

FV
=> FVn = PV (1 + i)n = PV x FVIFi,n

3
GI TR HIN TI CA MT KHON TIN

TRONG TNG LAI (1)
Bn phi gi vo ngn hng bao nhiu tin ngy
hm nay (li sut 9%/nm) sau 10 nm na bn
s c 50.000.000?
0
9%
GI TR HIN TI CA MT KHON TIN

TRONG TNG LAI (2)
FVn = PV (1 + i) n
PV =
FV n
1
=
FV
= FV n ( PVI Fi, n )
n
(1 + i ) n
(1 + i ) n
PV =
FV10
50.000.000
=
= 21.123.785
(1 + 9%)10
1,0910
10
50.000.000
PV0
5
XC NH YU T LI SUT
XC NH YU T K HN
(1)
Bn chi ra 10 triu ng mua mt chng khon c

thi hn l 8 nm. Sau 8 nm bn s nhn c 30 triu
ng. Vy li sut ca chng khon ny l bao nhiu?
FVn = PV (1 + i)n = PV x FVIFi,n
(1 + i)8 = FVIFi,8 = 30/10 = 3
Tnh nhm
Dng bng tnh
Rt cn
(1 + i) = 31/8 = 1,1472 => i = 14,72%
7
Bn gi vo ngn hng 10 triu ng ngy hm nay, vi

li sut kp hng nm l 10% th sau bao lu bn s
c 50 triu ng?
(1 + 10%)n = FVIF10,n = 5
Tnh nhm
Dng bng tnh
Ly ln 2 v:
nln(1,1) = ln(5) => n = ln(5)/ln(1,1) = 16,89 nm
8
XC NH YU T K HN
NGUYN TC 72
GI TR TNG LAI CA DNG TIN U

(1)
Bn gi vo ngn hng 30 triu ng ngy hm nay,

vi li sut kp hng nm l 6%, 8%, 12% th sau bao
lu bn s c gp i s tin ban u?
Cch tnh nhanh Nguyn tc 72
n = 72/i
i = 6% => n = 72/6 = 12 nm
i = 8% => n = 72/8 = 9 nm
i = 12% => n = 72/12 = 6 nm
9

(2)
S tin
Cui nm t
Gi tr tng lai cui nm n
...
...
...
n-1
7%
$1,000
$1,000
Cui mi nm
$1,000
$1,070
$1,145
Bn cho thu nh vi gi 1.000 USD/nm

USD/nm,,
thanh ton vo ngy 31/12 hng nm trong $3,215 = FVA3
thi hn 3 nm.
nm. Ton b tin cho thu c
gi vo ngn hng vi li sut 7%/nm. Sau 3
nm tng s tin bn c c l bao nhiu?
nhiu?
FVA3 = $1,000(1.07)2 + $1,000(1.07)1 + $1,000(1.07)0 = $3,215

(3)
S tin
u nm t
FV1 = P(1+i)n-1
FV1 = P(1+i)n
FV2 = P(1+i)n-2
FV2 = P(1+i)n-1
...
...
...
FVn-1= P(1+i)1
n-1
FVn-1= P(1+i)2
FVn= P(1+i)0
FVn= P(1+i)1
FVAn = P [(1+i)n-1 + (1+i)n-2 + . . . + (1+i)1 + (1+i)0]

FVAn = P (FVIFi,n-1+ FVIFi,n-2 + . . . FVIFi,1 + FVIFi,0) = P(FVIFAi,n)
11
10
FVAn = P(FVIFAi,n)(1+i)
12
GI TR TNG LAI CA DNG TIN

KHNG U (2)
GI TR TNG LAI CA DNG TIN

KHNG U (1)
0
Cui mi nm
7%
$1,000
$1,100
$1,210
$1,177
$1,145
$3,532 = FVA3
Bn cho thu nh vi gi 1.000 USD trong nm u,

u, sau
tng u 10% cho cc nm tip theo.
theo. Thi hn cho thu l 3
nm.
nm. S tin cho thu c thanh vo ngy 31/12 hng.
hng. Ton
b tin cho thu c gi vo ngn hng vi li sut 7%/nm.
Sau 3 nm tng s tin bn c c l bao nhiu?
nhiu?
S tin
Cui nm t
P1
FV1 = P1(1+i)n-1
P2
FV2 = P2(1+i)n-2
...
...
...
Pn-1
n-1
FVn-1= Pn-1(1+i)1
Pn
FVn= Pn (1+i)0 = Pn
FVMn = P1(1+i)n-1 + P2(1+i)n-2 + . . . + Pn-1(1+i)1 + Pn
13
GI TR HIN TI CA DNG TIN U

(1)

(2)
Cui mi nm
0
7%
$934,58
$873,44
$816,30
$1.000
$1.000
14
3
$1.000
$2,624.32 = PVA3
S tin
Cui nm t
Gi tr hin ti
PV0 = P/(1+i)1
PV0 = P/(1+i)2
...
...
...
n-1
PV0 = P/(1+i)n-1
PV0 = P/(1+i)n
PVAn = P [1/(1+i)1 + 1/(1+i)2 + . . . + 1/(1+i)n-1 + 1/(1+i)n]

PVAn = P(PVIFAi,n)
15
16

(3)
S tin
u nm t
Gi tr hin ti
PV0 = P/(1+i)0 = P
PV0 =
...
...
...
n-1
PV0 =
PVAn = P [1/(1+i)1 + 1/(1+i)2 + . . . + 1/(1+i)n-1 + 1/(1+i)n] (1)

(1+i)PVAn = P [1 + 1/(1+i)1 + . . . + 1/(1+i)n-2 + 1/(1+i)n-1] (2)
P/(1+i)1
Ly (2) (1), ch
chng ta c
c:
(1+i)PVAn - PVAn = P [1 - 1/(1+i)n]
P/(1+i)n-2
PVA
PV0 = P/(1+i)n-1
PVAn = P [1/(1+i)0 + 1/(1+i)1 + . . . + 1/(1+i)n-2 + 1/(1+i)n-1]
PVAn = P(PVIFAi,n)(1+i)
Thi im t
P1
PV0 = P1/(1+i)1
P2
PV0 = P2/(1+i)2
...
...
...
Pn-1
n-1
PV0 = Pn-1/(1+i)n-1
Pn
1
1
= P
n
i i (1 + i )
PVA n =
P
i
17
GI TR HIN TI CA DNG TIN

KHNG U
S tin

V HN
18
XC NH LI SUT CA DNG TIN U

ng A mun c mt s tin l 145 triu ng xy
nh trong 10 nm ti. ng dng s tin tit kim hng
nm ca mnh l 10 triu ng gi vo ngn hng.
Vi li sut ngn hng l bao nhiu sau 10 nm ng
A c c s tin ni trn?
Gi tr hin ti
FVAn = P(FVIFAi,n) = 10(FVIFAi,10) = 145 triu
PV0 = Pn/(1+i)n
FVIFAi,10 = 14,5 => i = 8%

PVMn = P1/(1+i)1 + P2/(1+i)2 + . . . + Pn-1/(1+i)n-1 + Pn/(1+i)n
19
20
XC NH K HN CA DNG TIN U
Anh B l mt sinh vin mi ra trng v d nh khi
no tch lu s tin l 60 triu ng s ci v. Nu
s tin tit kim c hng nm ca anh B l 10 triu
ng c gi ht vo ngn hng v vi li sut ngn
hng l 9%/nm th sau bao nhiu nm anh B s c
c s tin trn ci v?
FVAn = P(FVIFAi,n) = 10(FVIFA9,n) = 60 triu
CC KHON N TR DN
(CHO VAY TR GP)
Bn vay 100 triu ng, li sut 8%/nm (li kp) v
trong thi hn 5 nm. Nu tr dn hng nm (vn v
li) th mi nm bn phi tr bao nhiu tin?
PVAn = P(PVIFAi,n) = P(PVIFA8,5) = P(3,9927)
100 triu = P(3,9927) => P = 25.046.000 ng
FVIFA9,n = 6 => n = 5 nm
21
22
GI TR TNG LAI CA MT KHON TIN

KHI GHP LI NHIU LN TRONG NM
LI SUT DANH NGHA V LI SUT

HIU DNG
Li sut danh ngha: Li sut c cng b hoc
nim yt
FVn = PV [1+ (i / m)]
mn
i: Li sut/nm
m: S ln ghp li trong nm
V d: Bn gi vo ngn hng 100 triu ng vi li
sut 8%/nm trong thi hn 3 nm. Hi sau 3 nm
bn s c c s tin l bao nhiu nu ngn hng
tnh li kp: (a) theo bn nin, (b) theo qu, (c) theo
thng?
23
Li sut hiu dng (effective interest rate): Li sut

danh ngha c iu chnh theo s ln ghp li trong
k.
FVn PV PV [1 + (i / m)] PV
mn
=
= [1 + (i / m)] 1
PV
PV
mn
re =
24
LI SUT DANH NGHA V LI SUT

HIU DNG
V d: Ngn hng A cng b li sut cho cc khch
hng ca mnh l 8%/nm, tr li hng qu. Hi li
sut hiu dng (li thc) m cc khch hng c
hng hng nm l bao nhiu?
re = [1 + (i / m)] 1 = [1 + (8% / 4)] 1 = 8,2%

mn
25
CHNG 4: LI NHUN V RI RO
LI NHUN CA MT C PHIU
NI DUNG
Rt =
Li nhun v ri ro ca mt c phiu
Hip phng sai v tng quan
Li nhun v ri ro ca danh mc u t
Pt P0 + Ct
P0
Rt: Li nhun ca c phiu trong k t
Danh mc u t hiu qu
Pt: Gi c phiu thi im t
Cn bng th trng
P0: Gi c phiu thi im 0
M hnh nh gi ti sn vn (CAPM)
Ct: Tin mt nhn c t c phiu trong giai on 0-t
M hnh APT
1
LI NHUN K VNG CA MT C PHIU

(1)
n
R = p1r1 + p2r2 + ...+ pnrn = pi ri
LI NHUN K VNG CA MT C PHIU

(2)
- Li nhun k vng ca CP A:
i =1
Tnh trng nn KT
Khng hong
Suy thoi
Bnh thng
Cc thnh
LN ca CP A
LN ca CP B
-20%
10%
30%
50%
5%
20%
-12%
9%
RA =
0,2 + 0,1 + 0,3 + 0,5

= 0,175 = 17 ,5%
4
- Li nhun k vng ca CP B:
RB =
3
0,05 + 0,20 + 0,12 + 0,09

= 0,055 = 5,5%
4
4
RI RO CA MT C PHIU
(1)
RI RO CA MT C PHIU
(2)
Khi nim
- Ri ro l mt nguy c c th gy ra cc tn tht cho
ngi phi gnh chu n.
- Ri ro i vi cc nh u t CK l kh nng dn
n LN thc t ca CK thp hn LN k vng ca n.
o lng ri ro ca mt c phiu
n
VARi =
(R
t =1
R )2
i =
(R
t =1
R )2
Phng sai ( lch chun) ca CP A

Tnh trng nn
KT
Khng hong
Suy thoi
R At
R At R A
-20%
10%
-0,375
-0,075
0,140625
0,005625
Bnh thng
Cc thnh
30%
50%
0,125
0,325
0,015625
0,105625
Tng
( R At R A ) 2
0,267500
n
5
RI RO CA MT C PHIU
(3)
RI RO CA MT C PHIU
(4)
Phng sai ( lch chun) ca CP B
VARA =
Tnh trng nn
KT
Khng hong
Suy thoi
R At
R At R A
5%
20%
-0,005
0,145
0,000025
0,021025
Bnh thng
Cc thnh
-12%
9%
-0,175
0,035
0,030625
0,001225
Tng
( R At R A ) 2
0,2675
= 0,066875
4
A = 0,066875 = 0,2586 = 25,86%

VARB =
0,0529
= 0,013225
4
B = 0,013225 = 0,1150 = 11.50%
0,052900
7
HIP PHNG SAI V TNG QUAN

(1)

(2)
Cov( RA , RB ) =
R Bt
Khng hong -20%
-0,375
5%
-0,005
0,001875
Suy thoi
10%
-0,075
20%
0,145
-0,010875
Bnh thng
30%
0,125
-12%
-0,175
-0,021875
Cc thnh
50%
0,325
9%
0,035
0,011375
(RAt RA )(RBt RB )
t =1
Corr ( R A , RB ) =
Cov
SD ( R A ) xSD ( RB )
RBt RB ( R At R A )( R Bt R B )
RAt RA
Tnh trng
nn KT
R At
Tng
-0,0195
10
LI NHUN V RI RO CA DANH MC
(1)

(3)
Trng hp danh mc gm 2 loi c phiu
0,0195
Cov( RA , RB ) =
= 0,004875
4
Corr ( RA , RB ) =
Li nhun ca danh mc
RP = X A R A + X B RB
0,004875
= 0,1639
0,2586 * 0,1150
Phng sai ca danh mc:
VarP = X A2 A2 + 2 X A X B A, B + X B2 B2
11
12
(2)
V d: Ga s mt ngi u t 100 triu vo mt danh
mc gm 2 loi c phiu: A v B (60 triu vo CP A v
40 triu vo CP B). Li nhun v phng sai ( lch
chun) ca danh mc ny s l:
R p = ( 0,60 * 17,5%) + ( 0, 40 * 5,5%) = 12, 7%
VarP = 0,36 * 0,066875 + 2[0,6 x 0, 4 * ( 0,004875 ) ]
(3)
Tnh phng sai danh mc bng ma trn
A
X A2
X A XB A,B
X A XB A,B
2
A
X B2 B2
+ 0,16 * 0,013225 = 0,023851
P = SD P = Var P = 0,1544 = 15 , 44 %
13
14
(4)
Tnh phng sai ca danh mc bng ma trn
Trng hp danh mc gm nhiu loi CP

- Li nhun ca danh mc:
CP
1
i =1
XiR
- Phng sai ca danh mc:

n
VarP = X +
i =1
2
i
2
i
X X Cov( R , R )
i =1 j =1, j i
(5)
1
X
2
1
2
2
1
X 1 X 2Cov( R1 , R2 ) X 1 X 3Cov( R1 , R3 )
X 2 X 1Cov( R2 , R1 )
X 3 X 1Cov( R3 , R1 ) X 3 X 2Cov( R3 , R2 )
X n X 1Cov( Rn , R1 ) X n X 2Cov( Rn , R2 ) X n X 3Cov( Rn , R3 )
X 22 22
X 2 X 3Cov( R2 , R3 )
X 32 32
n
X 1 X nCov( R1 , Rn )
X n2 n2
15
16
DANH MC U T HIU QU
(1)
DANH MC U T HIU QU
(2)
Trng hp danh mc gm 2 loi c phiu
Trng hp danh mc gm n loi c phiu
17
DANH MC U T HIU QU
(3)
18
DANH MC U T HIU QU
(4)
Danh mc gm 1 tri phiu chnh ph v 1 CP
T l u t: 35% : 65%
V d: ng Phc ang xem xt u t vo c phiu ca

Cng ty X v tri phiu Chnh ph. Li nhun k vng v
ri ro ( lch chun) ca 2 chng khon ny nh sau:
Li nhun = 0,35x14 + 0,65x10 = 11,4%
C phiu X
Tri phiu CP
Li nhun
14%
10%
lch chun
0,20
= 0,35 2 x 0, 20 2 = 0,07 = 7%
T l u t: 120% : -20%
Li nhun = 1,20x14 + -0,20x10 = 14,8%

= 1, 20 2 x ( 0 , 20 ) 2 = 0 , 24 = 24 %
19
20
DANH MC U T HIU QU
(5)
Li nhun k vng
ca danh mc (%)
DANH MC U T HIU QU
(6)
Danh mc gm mt tri phiu chnh ph v n c phiu
120% u t vo c phiu
-20% u t vo tri phiu
Li nhun k vng
ca danh mc
ng II
ng th trng vn
5
10 = RF
35% u t vo c phiu
65% u t vo tri phiu
20
RF
lch chun ca li
nhun danh mc (%)
th 5.3: Li nhun v ri ro ca danh mc gm 1 tri phiu v mt c phiu
ng
I
- 40% tri phiu

35% tri phiu 140% c phiu
70% tri phiu 65% c phiu
i din bi Q
30% c phiu i din bi Q
i din bi Q
I
Ri ro ca danh
mc ( lch chun)
21
RI RO H THNG V RI RO
PHI H THNG (1)
22
PHI H THNG (2)
- Ri ro h thng (systematic risk)

Ri ro chung cho tt c cc loi chng khon c gy ra
bi cc yu t v m.
Ri ro h thng khng th gim thiu bng cch a dng
ho danh mc u t
- Ri ro phi h thng (unsystematic risk)
Ri ro ro xy ra i vi mt hoc mt s chng khon m
khng nh hng n ton b th trng
Ri ro phi h thng c th c loi tr bng cch a
dng ho danh mc u t.
23
R i = R i + ui
R i: Li nhun thc t ca c phiu i
R i : Li nhun k vng ca c phiu i
u i : Kt qu ca cc bin c khng tin on c
Ri = Ri + ui = Ri + mi + i
mi : Ri ro h thng (ri ro th trng) ca c phiu i
i : Ri ro phi h thng ca c phiu i

24
PHI H THNG (3)
CN BNG TH TRNG
(1)
Danh mc cn bng th trng
Ri ro ()
- Mi c nhn c th c mt c lng khc nhau v

li nhun k vng, phng sai cho tng c phiu.
- Cc c lng ny c th khng c khc bit ln nu
cc nh u t c c thng tin nh nhau.
- Gi thuyt s k vng thun nht (homogeneous
expectations): c mt th trng m tt c cc
nh u t u c nhng c lng ging nhau v li
nhun k vng, phng sai v hip phng sai.
Ri ro phi h thng
Ri ro h thng
S lng c phiu
25
CN BNG TH TRNG
(2)
26
CN BNG TH TRNG
(3)
- Vi gi thuyt s k vng thun nht, tt c cc nh

u t nn nm gi danh mc bao gm cc CK ri ro
c th hin bi im A trn th 5.4.
- Cc nh u t khng thch mo him c th kt hp
danh mc A vi cc chng khon phi ri ro t
c im 4.
- Vi cc nh u t thch mo him, h c th vay
thm tin u t vo danh mc A nhm t c
im 5.
27
- Nu tt c cc nh u t la chn cng mt danh

mc cc chng khon ri ro th danh mc ny l g?
- Danh mc chnh l danh mc tnh theo t trng
gi tr th trng ca tt c c phiu hin hu
(market-value-weighted portfolio).
=> Danh mc ny c gi l danh mc th trng
(market portfolio).
- Ch s ca mt lng ln CP l i din rt tt cho
danh mc gm nhiu CP ca cc nh u t.
28
CN BNG TH TRNG
(4)
CN BNG TH TRNG
(5)
Ri ro th trng ca mt c phiu
- Ri ro th trng ca mt CP trong danh mc ln
c o lng bng h s beta ca CP .
- H s beta c nh ngha nh l mt ch tiu o
lng s phn ng ca mt CP i vi s thay i
ca danh mc th trng.
- V d: H s beta ca Cng ty Y l 1,5, iu ny c
ngha l khi li nhun th trng tng 1% th li
nhun k vng ca cng ty s tng 1,5%.
i =
Cov ( R i , R M )
2 (RM )
: Ri ro th trng ca c phiu i
Cov ( R i , R M ) : Hip phng sai
2 (RM ) : Phng sai ca li nhun th trng
M : Ri ro ca c th trng
n
M = X i i = 1
i =1
i : Ri ro th trng ca c phiu i
Xi : T l u t vo c phiu i
29
CN BNG TH TRNG
(6)
30
M HNH NH GI TI SN VN - CAPM
(1)
Xc nh beta bng phng php hi quy
Ri
Ri = + i Rm +
ng th trng vn
Ri: Li nhun k vng ca c phiu i
RM
Rm: Li nhun th trng
RF
i: Ri ro th trng ca c phiu i
1
31
i
32
(2)
R = RF + ( R M RF )
- Nu = 0 R = RF : Li nhun k vng ca c phiu

bng vi li nhun ca chng khon phi ri ro.
- Nu = 1 R = RM : Li nhun k vng ca c phiu
bng vi li nhun ca th trng.
(3)
V d: C phiu ca Cng ty Q-mart c h s beta l
1,5. H s beta ca Cng ty Zebra l 0,8. Li sut ca
tri phiu chnh ph (chng khon phi ri ro) l 7%.
Li nhun k vng ca th trng l 15%. Li nhun k
vng ca 2 loi c phiu ny c tnh nh sau:
LN k vng ca Q-mart = 7% + 1,5(15% - 7%) = 19%
LN k vng ca Zebra = 7% + 0,8(15% - 7%) = 13,4%
33
M HNH 3 NHN T CA FAMA V

FRENCH
34
L THUYT TRN LCH GI APT

(ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY)
- Fama v French (1992) kt lun rng beta khng

phi l bin duy nht gii thch li nhun ca mt c
phiu nh trong m hnh CAPM.
- Trong m hnh 3 nhn t Fama-French (FamaFrench Three-Factor Model) li nhun ca mt c
phiu c xc nh trong mi tng quan vi: (1)
li nhun th trng, (2) quy m cng ty, (3) gi tr
s sch so vi gi tr th trng.
35
- ATP l m hnh s dng nhiu yu t xc nh

mi quan h gia li nhun k vng v ri ro ca
mt c phiu bng cch gi nh rng li nhun c
mi quan h tuyn tnh vi nhiu yu t ri ro.
- M [9-10]
hnh ny c da trn nguyn tc: 2 ti sn
ging ht nhau khng th bn vi 2 gi khc nhau.
36
L THUYT TRN LCH GI APT

(ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY)
Li nhun k vng trong trng hp c k yu t
ri ro c xc nh nh sau:
R i = r + i1 R F1 r + L + ik R Fk r
K
R i = r + j R Fj r
j =1
CAPM c xem nh l mt trng hp c bit

ca APT khi ch c duy nht mt nhn t (LN
khng tin on c ca danh mc th trng)
37
CHNG 5: CHI PH VN
KHI NIM
Khi nim v chi ph vn
- Chi ph vn l s tin m ngi s dng vn phi tr

c c quyn s dng trong mt khong thi gian
nht nh.
Chi ph vn vay
Chi ph vn c phn u i
- Mi ngun vn c mt chi ph s dng khc nhau v

c gi l chi ph vn thnh phn.
Chi ph li nhun gi li
Chi ph vn c phn thng mi pht hnh
- Chi ph vn cho c d n u t thng c xc nh

da theo phng php chi ph vn bnh qun trng s
(WACC).
Chi ph vn bnh qun trng s (WACC)

Chi ph vn bin t
1
CHI PH VN VAY
CHI PH VN C PHN U I
rD = rDA rDAT = rDA (1 T )
rP =
V d: Cng ty TNHH Thnh Long vay vn ngn hng

vi li sut 14%/nm, thu sut thu thu nhp doanh
nghip 28%. Chi ph vn vay ca cng ty Thnh Long
trong trng hp ny l:
rD = 14%(1 0,28) = 10,08%
DP
DP
=
PN PP (1 F )
Cng ty TNHH Hong Long pht hnh CP u i vi

mnh gi ca mi CP l 100.000 ng, tin li phi tr
cho mi CP l 10.000 ng. Chi ph pht hnh (bo lnh
pht hnh) m cng ty phi chu l 2,5% trn mnh gi
ca CP. Chi ph vn c phn u i ca Hong Long l:
10.000
rP =
= 10,3%
100.000(1 2,5%)
4
CHI PH LI NHUN GI LI
(1)
(2)
- Chi ph LN gi li l t sut LN m cc c ng yu
cu vn c c t LN gi li.
- Chi ph LN gi li chnh l chi ph c hi ca vn
- Chi ph LN gi li c th c xc nh bng cc
phng php:
(1) M hnh nh gi ti sn vn (CAPM);
(2) Chit khu dng tin (DCF).
Phng php m hnh nh gi ti sn (CAPM)
rs = rF + (rM rF ) i
V d: Gi s li sut tri phiu Chnh ph l 8%, t sut
li nhun k vng ca th trng l 15%, ri ro th
trng ca c phiu A l 0,75. T sut li nhun k vng
ca c phiu A c tnh nh sau:
rs = 8% + (15% 8%) * 0,75 = 13,25%
(3)
CHI PH C PHN THNG MI PHT HNH
Phng php chit khu dng tin (DCF)

D
rS = 1 + g
P0
rE =
V d: Gi s CP ca Cng ty ABC c bn vi gi
50.000 ng/CP, c tc thanh ton cho nm va qua l
1.000 ng/CP, mc tng trng c tc hng nm n
nh mc 10%.
1.000(1 + 10%)1
rS =
+ 10% = 12,2%
50.000
7
D1
+g
P0 (1 F )
V d: Cng ty ABC pht hnh thm CP huy ng vn

cho mt d n u t. Gi bn ca CP mi c xc nh
l 50.000 ng. Chi ph pht hnh CP mi l 8%, c tc
thanh ton cho nm va qua l 1.000 ng/CP, mc tng
trng c tc hng nm c k vng n nh mc 10%.
rS =
1.000 * (1 + 10%)1
+ 10% = 12,4%
50.000 * (1 8%)
8
CHI PH VN BNH QUN TRNG S

WACC = wD rD + wP rP + wS rS + wE rE
V d: Cng ty C&D c tng ngun vn l 10.000 triu
ng, trong vn vay l 4.500 triu ng, vn CP u i
l 500 triu ng, vn CP thng l 5.000 triu ng. Vn
vay cng ty phi tr li 10%/nm. C tc phi tr cho CP
u i l 12%. Vn CP thng c chi ph l 15%. Thu
sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip 28%.
WACC = 0,45 *10%(1 28%) + 0,05 *12% + 0,5 *15% = 11,34%
CHI PH VN BIN
(1)
- Chi ph vn bin t l chi ph cho vic tng thm mt
ng vn trong cng ty.
- WACC ca C&D l 11,34%
- Nu mi ng vn tng thm ca C&D m bo c
cu 45% vn vay, 5% vn c phn u i v 50% vn
c phn thng th WACC ca C&D s duy tr mc
11,34%.
- Liu Cng ty C&D c th tng thm vn v hn vi
chi ph vn khng i?
CHI PH VN BIN
(2)
10
CHI PH VN BIN
(3)
Gi s Cng ty C&D cn tng thm mt lng vn nht
nh v gi nguyn c cu: vn vay 45%, CP u i 5%
v CP thng 50%. Cng ty C&D c th vay thm ngn
hng vi li sut nh sau:
- T 0 450 triu ng, li sut: 10%
- Trn 450 triu 675 triu, li sut: 12%
- Trn 675 triu ng, li sut: 14%
WACC (%)
11,34
Vn mi tng thm
11
Vi lng vn tng thm l bao nhiu th WACC ca

C&D s thay i (im gy)?
12
CHI PH VN BIN
(4)
CHI PH VN BIN
(5)
- im gy u tin trn ng MCC ca C&D:
- im gy th hai trn ng MCC ca C&D:
0,45 XD = 450 triu ng
0,45 XD = 675 triu ng
=> XD = 450/0,45 = 1.000 triu ng
=> XD = 675/0,45 = 1.500 triu ng
Nu Cng ty gia tng vn nhiu hn 1.000 triu ng th

WACC ca Cng ty s l:
Nu Cng ty gia tng vn nhiu hn 1.500 triu ng th

WACC ca Cng ty s l:
WACC = 0,45*12%(1 28%) + 0,05*12% + 0,50 *15% = 11,99%
WACC = 0,45*14%(1 28%) + 0,05*12% + 0,50*15% = 12,64%
13
CHI PH VN BIN
(6)
WACC (%)
WACC3
12,64
WACC2
11,99
11,34
WACC1
1.000
1.500
Vn mi tng thm
15
14
CHNG 6:
NH GI TRI PHIU V C PHIU
NH GI TRI PHIU
(1)
Tri phiu v cng c n khng tnh li
FV n
PB =
(1 + r ) n
nh gi tri phiu
Tri phiu v cng c n khng tnh li
Tri phiu c thi hn c hng li nh k
nh gi c phiu
V d: Mt cng ty quyt nh vay tin trn th trng

bng cch pht hnh mt t tri phiu thi hn 5 nm,
mi tri phiu s c mnh gi l 1.000.000 ng, t l
chit khu l 10%. Vy tri phiu trn s c bn ra
vi mc gi bao nhiu?
C phiu u i
C phiu thng
NH GI TRI PHIU
(3)
NH GI TRI PHIU
(2)
Tri phiu c thi hn c hng li nh k

n
PB = INT
t =1
Gi s rng li sut ca tri phiu chnh ph pht

hnh ti thi im ngy 21/10/2006 l 10%. Gi ca
tri phiu ny ti thi im 21/10/2006 l bao nhiu?
3
1
F
+
t
(1 + r ) (1 + r )n
V d: Nh u t A ang xem xt vic mua tri

phiu ca cng ty X c pht hnh cch y 10 nm
nhng thi hn cn li ca tri phiu l 5 nm, mi
tri phiu c mnh gi l 1 triu ng, t l chit
khu l 10%, li sut ghi trn tri phiu l 9%/nm.
4
NH GI TRI PHIU
(3)
NH GI TRI PHIU
(4)
Phn tch s thay i gi tri phiu
Tri phiu v thi hn c hng li nh k
PB =
Bn nhn t c th nh hng n gi tri phiu:
I
r
V d: Nh u t B ang xem xt vic mua tri phiu

v thi hn ca chnh ph c mnh gi l 1.000.000
ng vi li sut ghi trn tri phiu l 10%/nm. Nu
Nh u t B k vng nhn c mc li sut l
8%/nm th ng ta s chp nhn mua tri phiu ny vi
gi l bao nhiu?
INT: Li hng nm ca tri phiu
F: Mnh gi
n: S k hn cn phi thanh ton ca tri phiu
r : T l chit khu (li nhun k vng)
NH GI TRI PHIU
(5)
NH GI TRI PHIU
(6)
Mt s nguyn tc:
T sut sinh li ca tri phiu
Li sut th trng = li sut tri phiu => Gi tri

phiu = Mnh gi
T sut li nh k: Li c hng nh k theo

mnh gi
Li sut th trng < li sut tri phiu => Gi tri

phiu > Mnh gi
T sut li trn vn: Li c hng do s thay i

gi ca tri phiu
Li sut th trng > li sut tri phiu => Gi tri

phiu < Mnh gi
Gi th trng s tin dn n mnh gi khi n tin
dn n ngy o hn.
7
T sut sinh li = T sut li nh k + T sut li

trn gi
NH GI TRI PHIU
(7)
NH GI TRI PHIU
(8)
962.072=
T sut sinh li lc tri phiu o hn (YTM)

Gi s rng bn mua mt tri phiu c mnh gi
1.000.000 ng, thi hn 5 nm v c hng li sut
hng nm l 9% vi gi 962.072 ng. Bn s gi tri
phiu ny cho n khi o hn, t sut sinh li ca tri
phiu ny la bao nhiu?
90.000 90.000 90.000 90.000 90.000 1.000.000

+
+
+
+
+
(1+ r)1 (1+ r)2 (1+ r)3 (1+ r)4 (1+ r)5 (1+ r)5
r = 10,0%
r=
I+
(F PB )
n
(F + 2 PB ) =
3
1.000 .000 962 .072

5
1.000 .000 + 2 x962 .072
3
90.000 +
r = 10,0%
9
10
NH GI C PHIU
(1)
NH GI C PHIU
(2)
C phiu thng
C phiu u i
C phiu u i ca cng ty A c mnh gi 100.000

ng, c tc 10%. Nu bn k vng nhn c li
sut 8%, th bn s chp nhn mua c phiu ny vi
gi l bao nhiu?
PP =
DP 10.000
=
= 125.000
rP
8%
P0 =
t =1
)t
M hnh khng tng trng
P0 =
11
Dt
(1 + r
D
rs
12
NH GI C PHIU
(3)
NH GI C PHIU
(4)
M hnh tng trng n nh

P0 =
D0 (1 + g ) D0 (1 + g ) 2
D0 (1 + g )
+
+
...
+
(1 + re )
(1 + re ) 2
(1 + re )
Ly (2) (1), ta c:
(1)
Nhn 2 v ca (1) vi (1+re)/(1+g), ta c:

D (1 + g )
D (1 + g ) 2
D0 (1 + g )
P0 = D0 + 0
+ 0
+
...
+
(1 + re )
(1 + re )
(1 + re ) 2
(2)
P0 (1 + re )
D 0 (1 + g )
P0 = D 0
(1 + g )
(1 + re )
(1 + re )
D1
(1 + g ) 1 P0 = D0 P0 = r g
13
NH GI C PHIU
(5)
NH GI C PHIU
(6)
V d: Bn ang chun b u t vo c phiu ca

cng ty A. Nm qua cng ty chia c tc cho mi c
phiu l 2.000 ng. T thng tin trn th trng, bn
c tnh c tc/c phiu s tng theo mt t l khng
i l 5%/nm. Nu t sut li nhun m bn k vng
l 15%, th bn s chp nhn mua gi c phiu ny vi
gi ti a la bao nhiu?
P0 =
14
D1
2.000 (1 + 5%)
=
= 21 .000
re g
15 % 5%
15
M hnh tng trng nhiu giai on

V d: Bn ang chun b u t vo c phiu ca
cng ty B. Nm qua cng ty chia c tc cho mi c
phiu l 1.500 ng. T thng tin trn th trng,
bn c tnh c tc/c phiu ca cng ty s tng
8% trong 3 nm ti v 10% cho cc nm tip theo.
Nu t sut li nhun m bn k vng l 15%, th
bn s chp nhn mua gi c phiu ny vi gi ti
a la bao nhiu?
16
NH GI C PHIU
(7)
n
P0 =
t =1
NH GI C PHIU
(8)
Xc nh g
Dn +1
Dt
+
PV
(1 + rs ) t
( re g l )
D4
1.500(1 + 8%)t
1
+
P0 =
x
t
3
(1 + 15%)
(1 + 15%) (15% 10%)
t =1
Da vo tc tng c tc trong qu kh
Da vo tc tng trng li nhun trong qu

kh
Da vo li nhun ti u t v t sut li nhun

tng lai
P0 = 27.310
g = b x ROE
b: T l li nhun gi li ti u t
17
18
NH GI C PHIU
(9)
NH GI C PHIU
(10)
V d: Trng hp BBC
2004
2005
2006
ROE (%)
11,39
13,42
11,40
LN/CP ()
1.642
2.194
2.713
C tc ()
1.200
1.200
1.200
b (%)
26,92
45,31
55,77
r = 8%
44.274
Gi CP thc t
(31/01/07)
51.500
r = 12%
18.420
51.500
r = 15%
12.810
51.500
r = 20%
8.497
51.500
Gi CP theo m hnh
TB
12,07
42,66
g (%)
5,15
D1
1.262
19
20
CHNG 7: PHN TCH TI CHNH D N
CC LOI D N U T TRONG CNG TY
Cc loi d n u t trong cng ty

Quy trnh phn tch v ra quyt nh u t
c lng dng tin
Cc ch tiu nh gi d n
Cn c vo mc ch:
Hin gi thun NPV
Cn c vo mi quan h:
T sut li nhun ni b - IRR
D n c lp
Thi gian hon vn PP
D n ph thuc
Ch s li nhun PI
D n loi tr
D n u t m rng
D n u t thay th
D n an ton lao ng/bo v mi trng
QUY TRNH PHN TCH V RA QUYT NH

U T
C LNG DNG TIN

(1)
Ti sao dng tin c s dng?
Dng tin l bng d ton thu chi trong sut thi gian tui
th ca d n
Li nhun khng phn nh chnh xc thi im thu v
chi tin ca d n.
V d: Chi ph u t (TSC) vo mt d n l 900 triu,
doanh thu c to ra t d n l 1.000 triu, chi ph bng
tin mi nm 500 triu, khu hao TSC trong 3 nm, thu
sut thu TNDN l 30%, kt qu kinh doanh v dng tin
to ra t d n nh sau:
C LNG DNG TIN

(2)
Nm
C LNG DNG TIN

(3)
3
Tng
Nm
Tng
DT bng tin
1.000
1.000
1.000
3.000
DT bng tin
1.000
1.000
1.000
3.000
CP bng tin
500
500
500
1.500
CP bng tin
500
500
500
1.500
KH
300
300
300
900
Mua ti sn
LN trc thu
200
200
200
600
Dng tin rng trc thu
Thu TNDN
60
60
60
180
Thu TNDN
LN sau thu
140
140
140
420
900
Dng tin rng sau thu
-900
-900
900
500
500
500
600
60
60
60
180
440
440
440
420
C LNG DNG TIN

(4)
C LNG DNG TIN

(5)
X l cc bin s ca dng tin (Incremental cash

flows)
Nhu cu vn u t thun
T thun = TSC + VL cn thit - Thu nhp t bn TSC
Nu thi gian u t trn mt nm th chi ph u t tnh
bng hin gi nm 0 vi li sut chit khu bng vi chi
ph s dng vn.
Chi ph c hi
Chi ph chm
V d: u t thun ca mt d n l 100.000$ trong nm 0,

30.000$ trong nm 1 v 20.000$ trong nm 2. Vi chi ph s
dng vn l 10% th hin gi ca u t thun s l
143.790$.
7
C LNG DNG TIN

(6)
TIU CHUN HIN GI THUN NPV

(1)
NPV l tng gi tr rng ca dng tin vi li sut chit
khu thch hp.
Dng tin hot ng thun

NCF = OEAT + Dep - NWC
Nm
Dng tin
NCF: Dng tin hot ng thun

OEAT: Li nhun sau thu
0
-CF0
NPV = CF0 +
Dep: Khu hao TSC

NWC: Vn lun chuyn rng
1
CF1
...
...
n
CFn
CFn
CF1
CF2
+
+ ... +
2
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
(1 + r ) n
n
NPV = CF0 +
t =1
2
CF2
CFt
(1 + r ) t
10

(2)

(3)
V d: Cng ty X c k hoch u t i mi thit b sn

xut. C 2 phng n ang c xem xt: A v B. Chi ph
u t v dng tin to ra mi nm c d tnh nh sau:
NPV = 0 => T sut sinh li ca d n = Li sut chit

khu ca d n (chi ph c hi ca vn u t) => c
th chp nhn d n
NPV > 0 => T sut sinh li ca d n > Li sut chit
khu ca d n => Chp nhn d n
NPV < 0 => T sut sinh li ca d n < Li sut chit
khu ca d n => Khng chp nhn d n
Trong trng hp cc d n loi tr ln nhau, d n
no c NPV dng v ln nht s c chn.
Nm
-1.000
300
450
450
200
-1.000
350
350
350
350
Vi LS chit khu l 10%, tnh NPV ca 2 phng n trn.

11
12
(4)
u im ca NPV:
T SUT LI NHUN NI B IRR

(1)
C tnh n yu t thi gian ca tin t
Khi nim: IRR l t l chit khu NPV ca d n

bng 0
Xem xt ton b dng tin ca d n
Cch tnh:
n gin v c tnh cht cng
NPV = - CF0 +
C th so snh gia cc d n
t =1
CFt
=0
(1 + IRR) t
CF0: Chi ph u t
Nhc im ca NPV:
Li sut chit khu nh hng n NPV. Li sut chit
khu khng ph hp => NPV khng chnh xc
CFt: Dng tin thun ca d n nm t
13
T SUT LI NHUN NI B IRR

(2)
I RR = r1 + (r 2 - r1 )
NPV 1
NPV 1 + NPV
r1: T l chit khu tm c NPV1 > 0 v nh nht
14
THI GIAN HON VN - PP

(1)
Thi gian hon vn l thi gian cn thit dng tin
thun ca d n b p vn u t ban u.
Thi gian hon vn khng chit khu
r2: T l chit khu tm c NPV2 < 0 v ln nht
PP = n +
Nguyn tc la chn d n:
IRR Chi ph s dng vn => Chp nhn d n
IRR < Chi ph s dng vn => Khng chp nhn d n
15
| CFt |
t =0
CFn +1
n: S nm dng tin tch lu ca d n < 0 v dng

tin tch lu s > 0 khi n nm n+1
16
THI GIAN HON VN - PP

(2)
CH S LI NHUN - PI
(PROFITABILITY INDEX)
Thi gian hon vn c chit khu

- Thi gian hon vn c chit khu: C tnh n yu t
thi gian ca tin t.
- Cch tnh thi gian hon vn c chit khu: Tng t
vi phng php thi gian hon vn khng chit khu
n
CFt
t
t = 0 (1 + r )
PP = n +
CFn +1
(1 + r ) n +1
Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin thun

PI =
Gi tr hin ti ca chi ph u t
Hin gi thun (NPV)
PI =
D n s c chp nhn khi PI 1
17
S DNG CH TIU NO QUYT NH

U T?
+1
Gi tr hin ti ca chi ph u t
18
LA CHN D N TRONG IU KIN

GII HN NGN SCH
Nn kt hp 3 ch tiu: NPV, IRR v PP
Nn s dng ch tiu PI
NPV: Cho bit d n c sinh li hay khng nhng

khng cho bit t l sinh li
Trnh t la chn:
- Tnh ton ch s PI cho tt c cc d n
IRR c th b sung cho NPV trong quyt nh u t
- Sp xp cc d n theo th t PI gim dn
C NPV v IRR li khng cho bit bao lu th vn u

t ban u s c thu hi
- Chn la cc d n theo th t u tin PI t cao n

thp cho n khi ngn sch vn u t c s dng
ht.
PP s b sung cho cho 2 ch tiu trn

19
20
SO SNH CC D N C CHU K
KHC NHAU
SO SNH CC D N C CHU K
KHC NHAU
1. Phng php chui thay th

Vng i ca d n di phi l bi s ca d n ngn
2. Phng php khon thanh ton hng nm tng

ng (EAA Equivalent annual annuity)
Vn u t vo d n c vng i ngn s c tip

tc ti u t v mc sinh li l khng i.
Da vo NPV ca tng d n tnh cc khon thanh

ton hng nm tng ng (EAA)
=> iu chnh cc d n c vng i khc nhau v cng

mt khong thi gian nh nhau.
D n no c NPV (sau khi iu chnh) cao hn s
c la chn
21
Gi nh d n to ra dng tin u (EAA) v hn

EAAi
NPVi =
r
D n no c NPV (sau khi iu chnh) cao hn s
c la chn
22
CHNG 8:
L THUYT TH TRNG HIU QU
Khi nim th trng hiu qu (market efficiency)
Cc mc ca th trng hiu qu (forms of
efficient market hypothesis)

Su bi hc ca th trng hiu qu
KHI NIM TH TRNG HIU QU

"Mt th trng c xem l hiu qu nu gi c ca
hng ho phn nh tt c cc thng tin sn c lin quan
n hng ho " (Fama, 1970)
Pt+1 = Pt + t+1
=> Cc nh u t khng th kim c li nhun bt
thng nu th trng hiu qu.
CC MC CA TH TRNG HIU QU
CC MC CA TH TRNG HIU QU
(1)
(2)
Mc yu (weak form)
=> Cc nh u t khng th kim c li nhun bt
Ga c phn nh tt cc thng tin trong qu kh.
thng bng cch phn tch cc bo co thng nin

hoc cc thng tin c cng b rng ri.
=> Khng th s dng gi c trong qu kh d bo

gi cho tng lai
Mc kh mnh (semi-strong form)
Gi c phn nh tt c cc thng tin c cng b trn

th trng (chnh sch tin t, t gi, li sut, cc thng
bo v c tc, chia tch c phiu)
Mc mnh (strong form)
Gi c phn nh tt cc cc thng tin sn c, bao gm

cc thng tin c cng b rng ri v cc thng tin
bn trong cng ty.
SU BI HC CA TH TRNG HIU QU
Th trng khng c b nh
Hy tin vo gi
Khng c o tng i vi cc phng php tnh

ton ti chnh
Hy t lm ly
Nhn mt c phiu phi thy c th trng
Phi thng xuyn thu thp thng tin
CHNG 9: N BY HOT NG V
N BY TI CHNH
NI DUNG
N BY HOT NG
(OPERATING LEVERAGE)
n by l g (Leverage)?
n by hot ng (operating leverage)
n by ti chnh (Financial leverage)
n by tng hp (Total/combined leverage)
N BY (LEVERAGE) L G?
N BY HOT NG
(1)
- n by l vic s dng chi ph c nh khch i

li nhun tim nng cho cng ty.
- Chi ph c nh bao gm:
Chi ph hot ng c nh (fixed operating costs)
Chi ph ti chnh c nh (fixed financial costs)
- n by hot ng o lng mc s dng chi

ph hot ng c nh ca cng ty.
- by hot ng (Degree of Operating Leverage
DOL) o lng s thay i ca EBIT/li nhun hot
ng trc s thay i ca doanh thu.
DOL =
EBIT / EBIT
Q / Q
(9.1)
N BY HOT NG (3)
N BY HOT NG
(2)
Cng ty A
Phn tch ho vn
Q BE
F
=
P V
Units
Sold
(9.2)
0
20,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
P: Gi bn
V: Bin ph
F: nh ph
P V: S d m ph (contribution margin)
QBE: S lng ho vn
Total
Variable
Costs
$
0
16,000
32,000
40,000
48,000
64,000
80,000
Fixed
$Costs
Total
$Costs
60,000
60,000
60,000
60,000
60,000
60,000
60,000
60,000
76,000
92,000
100,000
108,000
124,000
140,000
Total
Revenue
$
0
40,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Operating
Income
$ (loss)
(60,000)
(36,000)
(12,000)
0
12,000
36,000
60,000
N BY HOT NG (4)
N BY HOT NG (5)
Total
Revenue
Revenues and costs ($ thousands)
Cng ty B
200
Units
Sold
Profit
160
120
100
80
60
40
Total
costs
BE
Variable costs
Loss
20
Fixed
costs
40 50 60
80
100
120
Units produced and sold (thousands)

Fixed costs ($60,000)
Price ($2) Variable costs per unit ($0.80)
Total
Variable
Costs
Fixed
Costs
0
$
32,000
48,000
64,000
96,000
128,000
160,000
Total
Revenue
$
0
20,000
30,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Total
Costs
12,000
12,000
12,000
12,000
12,000
12,000
12,000
12,000
44,000
60,000
76,000
108,000
140,000
172,000
0
40,000
60,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Operating
Income
(loss)
$
(12,000)
(4,000)
0
4,000
12,000
20,000
28,000
.
N BY HOT NG (6)
N BY HOT NG
(7)
Total
Revenue
Revenues and costs ($ thousands)

200
Profit
EBIT = PQ (VQ +F) = Q(P-V) + F
Total
costs
Q ( P V )
EBIT / EBIT Q ( P V ) F
=
DOLQ =
Q
Q / Q
Q
160
120
80
BE
Variable costs
40
Loss
20
40
60
80
100
DOL Q =
Fixed
costs
120
Q(P V )
Q(P V ) F
(9.3)
Units produced and sold (thousands)

Fixed costs ($12,000) Price ($2) Variable costs per unit ($1.60)
10
N BY HOT NG
(8)
N BY HOT NG
(9)
LN hot ng ca cng ty A v B cc mc Q khc nhau:
Chia t s v mu s ca (9.3) cho (P-V), ta c:
Q(P V )
Q
(P V )
DOLQ =
=
(9.4)
Q ( P V ) F Q QBE
P V
Q( P V )
S V
EBIT + F
(9.5)
DOLS =
=
=
Q( P V ) F S V F
EBIT
11
Cng ty A
Cng ty B
0
20.000
- 60.000
- 36.000
- 12.000
- 4.000
40.000
60.000
- 12.000
12.000
4.000
12.000
80.000
36.000
20.000
100.000
60.000
28.000
12
N BY HOT NG
(10)
DOL ca cng ty A cc mc Q = 60.000:

DOL 60 .000 =
60 .000 ( 2 0,8)
=6
60 .000 ( 2 0,8) 60 .000
N BY TI CHNH
(FINANCIAL LEVERAGE)
DOL ca cng ty B cc mc Q = 60.000:

DOL 60 .000 =
60 .000 ( 2 1,6 )
=2
60 .000 ( 2 1,6) 12 .000
13
MI QUAN H GIA EBIT V EPS

(1)

(2)
Cty C&T c VCSH hin hnh l 10 triu USD (200.000

CP). Cty cn huy ng thm 5 triu USD m rng
SXKD. Cty xem xt 3 phng n huy ng vn: (1) Pht
hnh CP thng, (2) pht hnh tri phiu vi li sut 12%
v (3) pht hnh CP u i vi c tc 11%. EBIT hng
nm ca Cty hin ti l 1,5 triu USD, nhng nu m rng
SXKD Cty k vng EBIT s tng n 2,7 triu USD.
Thu thu nhp cng ty 40%. Nu s dng phng th
nht Cty s pht hnh thm 100.000 CP (50 USD/CP).
Tnh EPS cho 3 phng n trn?
15
EP S =
(EBIT - I)(1 - t) - PD
NS
I: Li phi tr hng nm
t: Thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty
PD: C tc phi tr cho CP u i
NS: S lng c phiu thng
16

(3)

(4)
Phng n ti tr
Ch tiu
CP thng
EBIT
2.700.000
Tri phiu
2.700.000
600.000
CP u i
2.700.000
-
EBT
2.700.000
2.100.000
2.700.000
Thu thu nhp cng ty
1.080.000
840.000
1.080.000
LN sau thu
1.620.000
1.260.000
1.620.000
PD
LN dnh cho CP thng

NS
550.000
1.620.000
1.260.000
1.070.000
300.000
200.000
200.000
5,40
6,30
5,35
EPS
C tn ti mt gi tr EBIT no cho EPS ca cc

phng n ti tr bng nhau?
im c gi l im bng quan (Indifference
hoc Financial leverage break-even point)
EBIT1,2 = im bng quan gia 2 PA 1 v 2
I1, I2: Li phi tr hng nm ng vi PA 1 v 2
PD1, PD2: C tc CP u i ng vi PA 1 v 2
t: Thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty
NS1, NS2: S CP thng ng vi PA 1 v 2
17
18

(5)

(3)
Phng n ti tr
( EBIT1, 2 I1 )(1 t ) PD1

NS1
( EBIT1, 2 0)(1 0,4) 0

300.000
Ch tiu
( EBIT1, 2 I 2 )(1 t ) PD2
EBIT
NS2
I
EBT
( EBIT1, 2 600.000)(1 0,4) 0
Thu thu nhp cng ty
200.000
LN sau thu
PD
EBIT1,2 = 1.800.000 USD
LN dnh cho CP thng

NS
EPS
19
CP thng
1.800.000
-
Tri phiu
1.800.000
600.000
CP u i
2.700.000
-
1.800.000
1.200.000
2.700.000
720.000
480.000
1.080.000
1.080.000
720.000
1.620.000
550.000
1.080.000
720.000
1.070.000
300.000
200.000
200.000
3,60
3,60
5,35
20
N BY TI CHNH
(1)

(6)
im bng quang = Tng ti sn x Li phi tr
Nu EBIT thp hn im bng quang => Phng n
ti tr bng c phiu thng to ra EPS cao hn
phng n ti tr bng n
Nu EBIT vt qua im bng quang => Phng n
ti tr bng n mang li EPS cao hn phng n ti
tr bng c phiu thng
- n by ti chnh o lng mc s dng n ca

mt cng ty.
- by ti chnh (Degree of Financial Leverage
DFL) o lng s thay i ca EPS trc s thay
i ca EBIT.
DFL =
EPS / EPS
EBIT / EBIT
(9.6)
21
22
N BY TI CHNH
(2)
N BY TI CHNH
(3)
- DFL trong trng hp cu trc vn gm CP thng,

n v CP u i.
EBIT
DFL=
EBIT I PD/(1 t)
DFL2.700.000 =
(9.7)
- DFL trong trng hp cu trc vn gm CP thng,

v n.
EBIT
DFL =
EBIT I
- DFL ca phng n ti tr bng CP u i.
2.700.000
= 1,51
2.700.000 550.000 /(1 0,4)
- DFL ca phng n ti tr bng n.

DFL 2.700 .000 =
(9.8)
23
2.700 .000
= 1,29
2.700 .000 600 .000
24
BY TNG HP - DTL
(1)
by tng hp o lng nh hng ca thay i
doanh thu hoc sn lng n EPS.
DTL = DOLxDFL
(9.9)
DTLQ =
Q( P V )
Q( P V ) F I [PD /(1 t )]
(9.10)
DTL S =
EBIT + F
EBIT I [PD /(1 t ) ]
(9.11)
25
Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2006-2007
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
N BY HOT NG V N BY TI CHNH
Trong c hc chng ta quen thuc vi khi nim n by nh l cng c khuch i lc nhm
bin mt lc nh thnh mt lc ln hn tc ng vo vt th chng ta cn dch chuyn. Trong kinh
doanh ngi ta mn thut ng n by m ch vic s dng chi ph c nh (fixed costs) gia
tng kh nng sinh li ca cng ty. Trong bi ny chng ta s khm ph nhng nguyn l s dng
n by trong kinh doanh, bao gm n by hot ng (operating leverage) v n by ti chnh
(financial leverage).
1. n by hot ng
1.1 Phn tch nh hng ca n by hot ng
n by hot ng (operating leverage) l mc s dng chi ph hot ng c nh ca cng ty.
y chng ta ch phn tch trong ngn hn bi v trong di hn tt c cc chi ph u thay i.
Chi ph c nh l chi ph khng thay i khi s lng thay i. Ch ph c nh c th k ra
bao gm cc loi chi ph nh khu hao, bo him, mt b phn chi ph in nc v mt b phn chi
ph qun l.
Chi ph bin i l chi ph thay i khi s lng thay i, chng hn chi ph nguyn vt liu,
lao ng trc tip, mt phn chi ph in nc, hoa hng bn hng, mt phn chi ph qun l hnh
chnh.
Trong kinh doanh, chng ta u t chi ph c nh vi hy vng s lng tiu th s to ra
doanh thu ln trang tri chi ph c nh v chi ph bin i. Ging nh chic n by trong c
hc, s hin din ca chi ph hot ng c nh gy ra s thay i trong s lng tiu th khuch
i s thay i li nhun (hoc l). minh ho iu ny chng ta xem xt v d cho bng 8.1
trang 2.
Kt qu phn tch nh hng ca n by hot ng th hin phn B. i vi mi cng ty
u c doanh thu v chi ph bin i tng 50% trong khi chi ph c nh khng thay i. Tt c cc
cng ty u cho thy c s nh hng ca n by hot ng th hin ch doanh thu ch tng 50%
nhng li nhun tng vi tc ln hn, c th l 400, 100 v 330% ln lt i vi cng ty F, V v
cng ty 2F.
Bng 8.1: Anh hng ca n by hot ng ln li nhun
Cng ty F
Phn A: Trc khi thay i doanh thu
Doanh thu
10.000$
Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph c nh
7.000
Chi ph bin i
2.000
Li nhun hot ng (EBIT)
1.000
T s n by hot ng
Chi ph c nh/ tng chi ph
0,78
Chi ph c nh/ doanh thu
0,70
Phn B: Sau khi doanh thu tng 50% trong nhng nm k tip
Doanh thu
15.000$
Chi ph hot ng
Chi ph c nh
7.000
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Cng ty V
Cng ty 2F
11.000$
19.500$
2.000
7.000
2.000
14.000
3.000
2.500
0,22
0,18
0,82
0,72
16.500$
29.250$
2.000
14.000
11/06/02
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Chi ph bin i
Phn trm thay i EBIT
(EBITt EBITt -1)/ EBITt -1
3.000
5.000
400%
Bi ging 8
10.500
4.000
100%
4.500
10.750
330%
1.2 Phn tch ho vn

Phn tch ho vn l k thut phn tch mi quan h gia chi ph c nh, chi ph bin i, li nhun
v s lng tiu th. minh ha k thut phn tch ho vn, chng ta ly v d sau y: Gi s cng
ty sn xut xe p c n gi bn l 50$, chi ph c nh hng nm l 100.000$ v chi ph bin i l
25$/ n v. Chng ta s phn tch quan h gia tng chi ph hot ng v tng doanh thu. Hnh 8.1
(trang 3) m t quan h gia tng doanh thu, tng chi ph hot ng v li nhun tng ng vi tng
mc sn lng v s lng tiu th. Cn lu , y chng ta ch quan tm n chi ph hot ng
nn li nhun y c xc nh l li nhun hot ng trc thu. Nh vy, li n vay v c tc
u i khng lin quan khi phn tch n by hot ng. Tuy nhin khi phn tch n by ti chnh
(phn sau) chng ta s xem xt vn ny.
Hnh 8.1: Phn tch ho vn

Doanh thu v chi ph (1000$)
Doanh thu
300
250
Tng chi ph
200
150
Bin ph
100
nh ph
50
S lng sn xut v tiu th
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Trn hnh 8.1, im giao nhau gia hai ng thng tng doanh thu v chi ph l im ho vn
(break-even point) v im ny doanh thu bng chi ph v, do , li nhun bng 0. Trn hnh v 8.1
im ho vn chnh l im c sn lng l 4000. V mt ton hc, tm im ho vn chng ta
thc hin nh sau:
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
t EBIT = li nhun trc thu v li (li nhun hot ng)

P = n gi bn
V = bin ph n v
(P V) = li gp
Q = s lng sn xut v tiu th
F = nh ph
QBE = s lng ho vn
im ho vn th doanh thu bng chi ph v EBIT bng 0. Do :
PQBE = VQBE + F
(P V)QBE = F
QBE = F/ (P V)
(8.1)
v d trn nu p dng cng thc (8.1), chng ta s c sn lng ho vn QBE = 100.000/ (50 25)
= 4.000 n v. Nu s lng tiu th vt qua im ha vn (4000 n v) th s c li nhun, ngc
li nu s lng tiu th di mc ho vn th cng ty b l.
im ho vn QBE nh va xc nh trn y th hin sn lng ho vn. Mun bit doanh
thu ho vn, chng ta ly sn lng ho vn nhn vi n gi bn. Trong v d trn sn lng ho
vn QBE = 4000 v n gi bn P = 50$, do doanh thu ho vn s l 50 x 4000 = 200.000$.
1.3 by hot ng (DOL)
Nh phn tch phn trc, chng ta thy rng di tc ng ca n by hot ng mt s thay
i trong s lng hng bn a n kt qu li nhun (hoc l) gia tng vi tc ln hn. o
lng mc tc ng ca n by hot ng, ngi ta s dng ch tiu by hot ng (degree of
operating leverage DOL). by hot ng (DOL) c nh ngha nh l phn trm thay i ca
li nhun hot ng so vi phn trm thay i ca sn lng (hoc doanh thu). Do :
by hot ng
=
(DOL) mc sn
lng Q (doanh thu S)
DOL =
Phn trm thay i li

nhun hot ng (8.2)
Phn trm thay i sn
lng (hoc doanh thu)
EBIT / EBIT
Q / Q
Cn lu rng by c th khc nhau nhng mc sn lng (hoc doanh thu) khc nhau. Do ,
khi ni n by chng ta nn ch r by mc sn lng Q hoc mc doanh thu S no .
Cng thc (8.2) trn y rt cn thit nh ngha v hiu c by hot ng nhng rt
kh tnh ton trn thc t do kh thu thp c s liu EBIT. d dng tnh ton DOL, chng ta
thc hin mt s bin i. Bit rng li gp bng doanh thu tr chi ph, ta c:
EBIT = PQ (VQ + F) = PQ VQ F = Q(P V) F
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
Bi v n gi bn P v nh ph F l c nh nn EBIT = Q(P V). Nh vy:
EBIT
Q( P V )
=
EBIT
Q( P V ) F
Thay vo cng thc (8.2), ta c:
Q( P V )
Q( P V )
Q( P V ) F Q( P V ) Q
=
DOLQ =
=
Q
Q( P V ) F Q Q( P V ) F
Q
DOLQ =
Q( P V )
Q( P V ) F
(8.3)
Chia t v mu ca (8.3) cho (P V), cng thc (8.3) c th vit li thnh:
Q( P V )
Q
(P V )
DOLQ =
=
Q( P V ) F Q QBE
(P V )
(8.4)
Cng thc (8.3) v (8.4) dng tnh by hot ng theo sn lng Q. Hai cng thc ny ch thch
hp i vi nhng cng ty no m sn phm c tnh n chic, chng hn nh xe hi hay my tnh.
i vi cng ty m sn phm a dng v khng th tnh thnh n v, chng ta s dng ch tiu
by theo doanh thu. Cng thc tnh by theo doanh thu nh sau:
Nguyen Minh Kieu
DOLS =
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
S V
EBIT + F
=
S V F
EBIT
trong S l doanh thu v V l tng chi ph bin i.

Vn dng cng thc (8.4) vo v d chng ta xem xt t u bi n gi, chng ta c:
Nh vy by hot ng mc sn lng Q = 5000 bng 5. iu ny c ngha l g? N c ngha
DOL5000 =
5000
Q
=
=5
Q QBE 5000 4000
DOL6000 =
6000
Q
=
=3
Q QBE 6000 4000
(8.5)
l t mc sn lng tiu th l 5000 n v, c mi phn trm thay i sn lng tiu th th li

nhun hot ng s thay i 5 phn trm. Ngoi ra cn lu rng, khi sn lng tng t 5000 ln
6000 n v th by hot ng gim t 5 xung 3, ngha l t mc sn lng l 6000 n v, c
mi phn trm thay i sn lng tiu th th li nhun hot ng thay i 3 phn trm. Do , k t
im ho vn nu sn lng cng tng th by cng gim.
1.4 Quan h gia by hot ng v im ho vn
thy c mi quan h gia by hot ng v im ho vn chng lp bng tnh li nhun v
by hot ng nhiu mc sn lng khc nhau. Bng 8.2 di y cho chng ta thy li
nhun v by hot ng nhng mc sn lng khc nhau.
Bng 8.2: Li nhun v by hot ng nhng mc sn lng khc nhau
by hot ng (DOL)
(Q)
0
- 100.000
0,00
1000
- 75.000
- 0,33
2000
- 50.000
- 1,00
3000
- 25.000
- 3,00
QBE= 4000
0
Khng xc nh
5000
25.000
5,00
6000
50.000
3,00
7000
75.000
2,33
8000
100.000
2,00
Bng 8.2 cho thy rng nu sn lng di chuyn cng xa im ho vn th li nhun hot ng hoc
l s cng ln, ngc li by hot ng (DOL) cng nh. Quan h gia sn lng tiu th v li
nhun hot ng l quan h tuyn tnh nh thy trn hnh v 8.1. Hnh 8.2 di y s din t quan
h gia sn lng tiu th v by hot ng.
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
Hnh 8.2: Quan h gia sn lng tiu th v by hot ng

by hot ng
5
3
2
1
0
-1
2000 3000
4000 5000 6000
8000
-3
Hnh 8.2 cung cp cho chng ta mt s nhn xt nh sau:
by hot ng tin n v cc khi s lng sn xut v tiu th tin dn n im ho

vn.
Khi s lng sn xut v tiu th cng vt xa im ho vn th by s tin dn n 1.
1.5 Quan h gia by hot ng v ri ro doanh nghip

Ri ro doanh nghip l ri ro do nhng bt n pht sinh trong hot ng ca doanh nghip khin cho
li nhun hot ng gim. Cn ch rng by hot ng ch l mt b phn ca ri ro doanh
nghip. Cc yu t khc ca ri ro doanh nghip l s thay i hay s bt n ca doanh thu v chi ph
sn xut. y l hai yu t chnh ca ri ro doanh nghip, cn n by hot ng lm khuch i s
nh hng ca cc yu ny ln li nhun hot ng ca doanh nghip. Tuy nhin bn thn n by
hot ng khng phi l ngun gc ca ri ro, bi l by cao cng chng c ngha g c nu nh
doanh thu v c cu chi ph c nh. Do , s sai lm nu nh ng ngha by hot ng vi ri
ro doanh nghip, bi v ci gc l s thay i doanh thu v chi ph sn xut, tuy nhin, by hot
ng c tc dng khuch i s thay i ca li nhun v, do , khuch i ri ro doanh nghip.
T gic ny, c th xem by hot ng nh l mt dng ri ro tim n, n ch tr thnh
ri ro hot ng khi no xut hin s bin ng doanh thu v chi ph sn xut.
1.6 ngha ca by hot ng i vi qun tr ti chnh
Sau khi nghin cu v n by hot ng, chng ta th t ra cu hi: Hiu bit v by hot ng
ca cng ty c ch li th no i vi gim c ti chnh? L gim c ti chnh, bn cn bit trc
xem s thay i doanh thu s nh hng th no n li nhun hot ng. by hot ng chnh l
cng c gip bn tr li cu hi ny. i khi bit trc by hot ng, cng ty c th d dng hn
trong vic quyt nh chnh sch doanh thu v chi ph ca mnh. Nhng nhn chung, cng ty khng
thch hot ng di iu kin by hot ng cao bi v trong tnh hung nh vy ch cn mt s
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
st gim nh doanh thu cng d dn n l trong hot ng. iu ny c minh chng ni bt nht
bi trng hp ca American Airlines sau s kin khng b ngy 11/09. Chng ta bit ngnh hng
khng l ngnh c by hot ng cao do c th ca ngnh ny l chi ph c nh rt ln. Bi vy,
khi s kin 11/09 xy ra by cao khuch i ri ro doanh nghip ln cc khin cho doanh
nghip phi thua l rt ln v lm vo tnh trng ph sn.
2. n by ti chnh
n by hot ng lin quan n vic s dng chi ph c nh trong hot ng ca cng ty, nh
xem xt trong phn 1. Trong phn 2 ny chng ta s nghin cu n by ti chnh. n by ti chnh
(financial leverage) lin quan n vic s dng cc ngun ti tr c chi ph c nh. n by ti chnh
c nh ngha nh l mc theo cc chng khon c thu nhp c nh (n v c phiu u i)
c s dng trong c cu ngun vn ca cng ty.
C mt iu khc bit l th gia n by hot ng v n by ti chnh l cng ty c th
la chn n by ti chnh trong khi khng th la chn n by hot ng. n by hot ng do
c im hot ng ca cng ty quyt nh, chng hn cng ty hot ng trong ngnh hng khng v
luyn thp c n by hot ng cao trong khi cng ty hot ng trong ngnh dch v nh t vn v
du lch c n by hot ng thp. n by ti chnh th khc. Khng c cng ty no b p buc phi
s dng n v c phiu u i ti tr cho hot ng ca mnh m thay vo cng ty c th s
dng ngun vn t vic pht hnh c phiu thng. Th nhng trn thc t t khi c cng ty no
khng s dng n by ti chnh. Vy, l do g khin cng ty s dng n by ti chnh?
Cng ty s dng n by ti chnh vi hy vng l s gia tng c li nhun cho c ng
thng. Nu s dng ph hp, cng ty c th dng cc ngun vn c chi ph c nh, bng cch pht
hnh tri phiu v c phiu u i, to ra li nhun ln hn chi ph tr cho vic huy ng vn c
li tc c nh. Phn li nhun cn li s thuc v c ng thng. iu ny s c th hin r hn
khi chng ta phn tch quan h gia li nhun trc thu v li (EBIT) v li nhun trn c phn
(EPS).
2.1 Phn tch quan h EBIT v EPS
Phn tch quan h EBIT-EPS l phn tch s nh hng ca nhng phng n ti tr khc nhau i
vi li nhun trn c phn. T s phn tch ny, chng ta s tm mt im bng quan (indifferent
point), tc l im ca EBIT m cc phng n ti tr u mang li EPS nh nhau. minh ho
phn tch quan h EBIT-EPS, chng ta xem xt v d sau y:
Cng ty CTC c ngun vn di hn 10 triu USD hon ton t ngun vn c phn thng thng.
Cng ty cn huy ng thm 5 triu USD cho vic m rng sn xut kinh doanh. Cng ty xem xt 3
phng n huy ng vn: (1) pht hnh c phiu thng, (2) pht hnh tri phiu vi li sut 12%,
hoc (3) pht hnh c phiu u i vi c tc 11%. Li nhun trc thu v li (EBIT) hng nm ca
cng ty hin ti l 1,5 triu USD nhng nu m rng sn xut kinh doanh cng ty k vng EBIT s
tng n 2,7 triu USD. Thu thu nhp cng ty l 40% v cng ty hin c 200.000 c phn. Nu s
dng phng n th nht, cng ty c th bn thm 100.000 c phn vi gi 50USD/c phn huy
ng thm 5 triu USD.
Mc tiu ca chng ta l phn tch tm ra im bng quan, tc l im m cc phng
n ti tr u mang li EPS nh nhau. Trc ht, chng ta xc nh EPS theo cng thc sau:
EPS =
( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD
NS
Nguyen Minh Kieu
(8.6)
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
Trong I = li sut hng nm phi tr

PD = c tc hng nm phi tr
t = thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty
NS = s lng c phn thng thng
xc nh EPS ca cng ty theo ba phng n ti tr, chng ta lp bng tnh ton 8.3 di y:
Bng 8.3: Bng tnh EPS theo 3 phng n ti tr
Li nhun trc thu v li (EBIT)
Li sut (I)
Li nhun trc thu (EBT)
Thu thu nhp (EBT x t)
Li nhun sau thu (EAT)
C tc c phiu u i (PD)
Li nhun dnh cho c ng thng
S lng c phn (NS)
Li nhun trn c phn (EPS)
C phiu thng
2.700.000$
2.700.000
1.080.000
1.620.000
1.620.000
300.000
5.40
Phng n ti tr
N
C phiu u i
2.700.000$
2.700.000$
600.000
2.100.000
2.700.000
840.000
1.080.000
1.260.000
1.620.000
550.000
1.260.000
1.070.000
200.000
200.000
6.30
5.35
Da vo kt qu bng tnh ton trn y chng ta c th xc nh im bng quan bng mt trong hai
phng php: phng php hnh hc v phng php i s.
Xc nh im bng quan bng phng php hnh hc
S dng th biu din quan h gia EBIT v EPS chng ta c th tm ra c im bng quan, tc
l im giao nhau gia cc phng n ti tr EBIT theo bt k phng n no cng mang li
EPS nh nhau. lm iu ny chng ta xy dng th nh trn hnh v 8.3 (trang 10). i vi mi
phng n, chng ta ln lt v ng thng phn nh quan h gia EPS vi tt c cc im ca
EBIT.
Trc ht trn th hnh 8.3 chng ta chn cc im c honh l 2,7 v tung ln lt
l 5,40; 6,30 v 5,35 (5,40 v 5,35 gn nhau nn trn th chng gn nh trng nhau). K n chng
ta tm im th hai bng cch ln lt cho EPS = 0 tm ra EBIT tng ng.
Vi phng n ti tr bng c phiu thng
(EBIT I)(1 t) PD = 0
(EBIT 0)(1 0,4) 0 = 0
(EBIT)0,6 = 0
EBIT = 0
Ni hai im c to (0, 0) v (2,7, 5,4) chng ta c c ng thng phn nh EPS theo phng
n ti tr bng c phiu thng thng.
Vi phng n ti tr bng n
(EBIT 600.000)(1 0,4) 0 = 0
(EBIT)0,6 360.000 = 0
EBIT = 360.000/0,6 = 600.000$
Ni hai im c to (0,6, 0) v (2,7, 6,3) chng ta c c ng thng phn nh EPS theo
phng n ti tr bng n.
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
Vi phng n ti tr bng c phiu u i

(EBIT 0)(1 0,4) 550.000 = 0
(EBIT)0,6 550.000 = 0
EBIT = 550.000/0,6 = 916.667$
Ni hai im c to (0,916, 0) v (2,7, 5,35) chng ta c c ng thng phn nh EPS theo
phng n ti tr bng c phiu u i.
Hnh 8.3: th xc nh im bng quan theo 3 phng n
EPS ($)
N
CP u i
CP
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
EBIT (triu $)
0
1
Trn hnh v 8.3, hai im ct nhau gia ng thng c phiu thng vi ng thng n v c
phiu u i cho chng ta hai im bng quan v im cc phng n ti tr u em li cng
EPS.
Xc nh im bng quan bng phng php i s
V mt i s, chng ta c th xc nh im bng quan bng cch p dng cng thc (8.6) tnh EPS
theo EBIT cho mi phng n, sau thit lp phng trnh cn bng nh sau:
( EBIT1, 2 I 1 )(1 t ) PD1

NS1
( EBIT1, 2 I 2 )(1 t ) PD2
(8.7)
NS 2
Trong EBIT1,2 = EBIT bng quan gia hai phng n ti tr 1 v 2
Nguyen Minh Kieu
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
I1, I2 = li phi tr hng nm ng vi phng n ti tr 1 v 2

PD1, PD2 = c tc phi tr hng nm theo phng n ti tr 1 v 2
t = thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty
NS1, NS2 = s c phn thng thng ng vi phng n 1 v 2
Trong v d ang xem xt, chng ta tm im bng quan gia hai phng n ti tr bng n v c
phiu thng nh sau:
Ti tr bng c phiu thng
( EBIT1, 2 0)(1 0,4) 0

300.000
Ti tr bng n
( EBIT1, 2 600.000)(1 0,4) 0

200.000
(EBIT1,2)(0,6)(200.000) = (EBIT1,2)(0,6)(300.000) (0,6)(600.000)(300.000)

(EBIT1,2)(60.000) = 108.000.000.000
EBIT1,2 = 1.800.000$
Thc hin tng t, chng ta c th tm c im bng quan gia hai phng ti tr bng c phiu
thng v c phiu u i l 2,75 triu USD.
ngha ca im bng quan
T phng php hnh hc cng nh phng php i s chng ta tm thy im bng quan gia hai
phng n ti tr bng n v c phiu thng l 1,8 triu USD. iu ny c ngha g? Nu EBIT thp
hn im bng quan th phng n ti tr bng c phiu thng to ra c EPS cao hn phng n
ti tr bng n, nhng nu EBIT vt qua im bng quan th phng n ti tr bng n mang li
EPS cao hn phng n ti tr bng c phiu thng.
Tng t im bng quan gia hai phng n ti tr bng c phiu thng v c phiu u i
l 2,75 triu USD. Nu EBIT nm di im ny th phng n ti tr bng c phiu thng to ra
EPS cao hn phng n ti tr bng c phiu u i, nhng nu EBIT vt qua im bng quan th
phng n ti tr bng c phiu u i mang li EPS cao hn phng n ti tr bng c phiu
thng.
2.2 by ti chnh
by ti chnh (degree of financial leverage DFL) l mt ch tiu nh lng dng o lng
mc bin ng ca EPS khi EBIT thay i. by ti chnh mt mc EBIT no c xc
nh nh l phn trm thay i ca EPS khi EBIT thay i 1 phn trm. Do :
by ti chnh (DFL) mc =
EBIT $
DFLEBIT =
Phn trm thay i ca EPS

Phn trm thay i ca EBIT
EPS / EPS
%EPS
=
%EBIT EBIT / EBIT
T cng thc (8.6), chng ta bit EPS = [(EBIT I)(1 t) PD]/ NS v v I v PD l hng s nn
I v PD bng 0.
Nguyen Minh Kieu
10
EPS =
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
(EBIT I )(1 t ) PD EBIT (1 t )

=
NS
NS
EBIT (1 t )
EPS
EBIT (1 t )
NS
=
=
( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD ( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD
EPS
NS
DFLEBIT
EBIT (1 t )
EBIT
EBIT (1 t )
EBIT (1 t )
( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD
=
=
=
EBIT
( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD EBIT ( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD
EBIT
Chia c t v mu s cho (1 t), ta c:
Trng hp c bit ch xt by ti chnh khi s dng phng n ti tr bng n th PD = 0. Khi
DFLEBIT =
EBIT
EBIT I [ PD /(1 t )]
(8.8)
DFLEBIT =
EBIT
EBIT I
(8.9)
Trong v d chng ta ang xem xt, by ti chnh xc nh theo cng thc (8.8) nh sau:
Dng phng n ti tr bng n
DFLEBIT = 2.700.000 =
EBIT
2.700.000
=
= 1,29
EBIT I 2.700.000 600.000
Dng phng n ti tr bng c phiu u i
DFLEBIT = 2.700.000 =
EBIT
2.700.000
=
= 1,51
EBIT I [ PD /(1 t )] 2.700.000 [550.000 /(1 0,4)]
Nh vy, by ti chnh ca phng n ti tr bng n l 1,29 cn phng n ti tr bng c phiu

i l 1,51. C 2 cu hi t ra y:
Nguyen Minh Kieu
11
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
by ti chnh ca phng n dng c phiu u i ln hn by ti chnh ca phng n

dng n, iu ny c ngha g?
Khi no by ti chnh ca phng n dng c phiu u i ln hn by ti chnh ca
phng n dng n?
by ti chnh ca phng n dng c phiu u i (DFL = 1,51) ln hn by ti chnh ca

phng n dng n (DFL = 1,29) c ngha l mc bin ng ca EPS khi EBIT bin ng i vi
phng n ti tr bng c phiu u i cao hn mc bin ng ca EPS khi EBIT bin ng i vi
phng n ti tr bng n. Khi no by ti chnh ca phng n dng c phiu u i ln hn hay
nh by ti chnh ca phng n dng n? iu ny ph thuc vo vn tit kim thu do s
dng n so vi chi ph tr c tc.
Nu chi ph tr c tc (PD) ln hn phn chnh lch gia li v tit kim thu do s dng n
(1 - t)I, ta c:
PD
PD
> I => EBIT +
> EBIT + I
(1 t )
(1 t )
PD
EBIT I > EBIT
1 t
EBIT
EBIT
=> DFL (n) < DFL (Cp u i)
<
PD
EBIT I
EBIT
1 t
PD > (1 t ) I =>
Nu chi ph tr c tc (PD) nh hn phn chnh lch gia li v tit kim thu do s dng n (1 - t)I,
ta c:
PD
PD
< I => EBIT +
< EBIT + I
(1 t )
(1 t )
PD
EBIT I < EBIT
1 t
EBIT
EBIT
=> DFL (n) > DFL (Cp u i)
>
PD
EBIT I
EBIT
1 t
PD < (1 t ) I =>
2.3 by ti chnh v ri ro ti chnh

Ri ro ti chnh l ri ro bin ng li nhun trn c phn kt hp vi ri ro mt kh nng chi tr pht
sinh do cng ty s dng n by ti chnh. Khi cng ty gia tng t trng ngun ti tr c chi ph c
nh trong c cu ngun vn th dng tin t c nh chi ra tr li hoc c tc cng gia tng. Kt
qu l xc sut mt kh nng chi tr tng theo. minh ho iu ny, chng ta xem xt hai cng ty A
v B u c EBIT l 80.000$. Cng ty A khng s dng n trong khi cng ty B c pht hnh
200.000$ tri phiu vnh cu vi li sut 15%. Nh vy hng nm cng ty B phi tr 30.000$ tin li.
Nu EBIT ca hai cng ty gim xung cn 20.000$ th cng ty B lm vo tnh trng mt kh nng chi
tr trong khi cng ty A th khng.
Nguyen Minh Kieu
12
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
By gi chng ta s xem xt ri ro do s bin ng ca EPS. Gi s EBIT ca cng ty A v B

l bin ngu nhin c gi tr k vng l 80.000$ vi lch chun l 40.000$. Cng ty A khng s
dng n nhng c 4.000 c phn vi mnh gi 10$/c phn cng ty B c n pht hnh tri phiu tr
gi 200.000$ v 2.000 c phn vi mnh gi 10$/c phn. Bng 8.4 phn tch nh hng ca n by
ti chnh n EPS ca hai cng ty.
Bng 8.4: nh hng ca n by ti chnh ln EPS
Cng ty A
Phn A: D bo thng tin v thu nhp
Li nhun trc thu v li k vng [E(EBIT)]
Li (I)
Li nhun trc thu k vng [E(EBT)]
Thu k vng [E(EBT)xt]
Li nhun k vng dnh cho c ng thng [E(EACS)]
Li nhun trn c phn k vng [E(EPS)]
Phn B: Cc b phn ri ro
lch chun ca li nhun trn c phn (EPS)1
H s bin i ca EBIT [EBIT/E(EBIT)]
DFLE(EBIT)=80.000 E(EBIT)/[E(EBIT) I PD /(1-t)]
H s bin i ca EPS [EPS/E(EPS)]
Cng ty B
$80.000
80.000
32.000
48.000
12
$80.000
30.000
50.000
20.000
30.000
15
6
0,50
1,00
0,50
12
0,50
1,60
0,80
Cn lu cch tnh lch chun ca EPS. Chng ta bit rng:
EPS =
( EBIT I )(1 t ) PD
PD (1 t )
=
+
EBIT
NS
NS
NS
EPS =
(1 t )
(1 0,4)
EBIT =
40000 = 12
NS
2000
Nhn vo bng 8.4 chng ta thy rng do s dng ngun ti tr t n v EBIT vt qua im bng
quan nn cng ty B c EPS cao hn cng ty A nhng n by ti chnh cng lm cho cng ty B ri ro
hn cng ty A. iu ny th hin ch cng ty B c lch chun ca EPS, by ti chnh v h
s bin i ca EPS u cao hn cng ty A.
3. Tng hp n by hot ng v n by ti chnh
Khi n by ti chnh c s dng kt hp vi n by hot ng chng ta c n by tng hp
(Combined or total leverage). Nh vy, n by tng hp l vic cng ty s dng kt hp c chi ph
hot ng v chi ph ti tr c nh. Khi s dng kt hp, n by hot ng v n by ti chnh c
tc ng n EPS khi s lng tiu th thay i qua hai bc. Bc th nht, s lng tiu th thay
i lm thay i EBIT (tc ng ca n by hot ng). Bc th hai, EBIT thay i lm thay i
EPS (tc ng ca n by ti chnh). o lng mc bin ng ca EPS khi s lng tiu th
thay i ngi ta dng ch tiu by tng hp (degree of total leverage DTL).
1
Nh rng vi bt k bin ngu nhin X th (a +bx) = bx
Nguyen Minh Kieu
13
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi ging
Bi ging 8
by tng hp ca cng ty mc sn lung (hoc doanh thu) no bng phn trm thay
i ca EPS trn phn trm thay i ca sn lng (hoc doanh thu).
by tng hp mc sn
=
lng Q n v (hoc S ng)
Phn trm thay i ca EPS

Phn trm thay i ca sn lng
(hoc doanh thu)
V mt tnh ton, by tng hp (DTL) chnh l tch s ca by hot ng vi by ti chnh:

DTLQ n v hoc S ng = DOL x DFL
(8.10)
Thay cng thc (8.4 ), (8.5) v (8.8 ) vo (8.10) chng ta c c:
DTLQ =
DTLS =
Q( P V )
Q( P V ) F I [ PD /(1 t )]
EBIT + F
EBIT I [ PD /(1 t )]
(8.11)
(8.12)
V d cng ty sn xut xe p c n gi bn l 50$, chi ph bin i n v l 25$ v chi ph c nh

l 100.000$. Gi s thm rng cng ty s dng ngun ti tr t n vay 200.000$ vi li sut 8%/nm
v thu sut thu thu nhp ca cng ty l 40%. by tng hp mc sn lng 8000 chic l:
DTL8000 =
8000(50 25)
= 2,38
8000(50 25) 100.000 16.000
Nguyen Minh Kieu
14
CHNG 10:
CU TRC VN (CAPITAL STRUCTURE)
- t vn
TI SAO XEM XT CU TRC VN CNG TY?
thy nh hng ca cu trc vn n:
- Cc l thuyt v cu trc vn
- Chi ph s dng vn
L thuyt cu trc vn ti u
- Gi tr cng ty
L thuyt li nhun hot ng rng (NOI)
- Gi c phiu
L thuyt M&M
CC VN T RA KHI NGHIN CU CU
TRC VN CNG TY
- Gi tr cng ty c ph thuc vo cu trc vn?
- Chi ph s dng vn thay i nh th no khi cng
ty thay i cu trc vn?
- Chi ph s dng VCSH c quan h th no n cu
trc vn?
- C 3 l thuyt v vn ny:
L thuyt cu trc vn ti u
L thuyt li nhun hot ng rng
L thuyt M&M
3
L THUYT CU TRC VN TI U
(1)
- C mt cu trc vn ti u, :
WACC mc thp nht
Gi tr cng ty v gi c phiu t mc ti a
- Cng ty c th s dng n by ti chnh to ra
cu trc vn ti u.
- Quyt nh cu trc vn ti u l quyt nh cu trc
vn sao cho cn i c gia ri ro v li nhun v
do ti a ho c gi tr cng ty.
4
L THUYT CU TRC VN TI U
(2)
L THUYT LN HOT NG RNG (NOI)
C cu vn mc tiu l s kt hp gia n, vn c
phn u i v c phn thng trong tng ngun vn
ca cng ty theo mc tiu ra.
S dng nhiu n lm gia tng ri ro
S dng nhiu n dn n li nhun k vng cao
- Li nhun yu cu trn vn ch s hu (chi ph s

dng vn ch s hu) c tng quan t l thun vi t
s n.
- T sut li nhun chung (WACC) khng ph thuc
vo cu trc vn.
- Tng gi tr doanh nghip khng b nh hng bi
cu trc vn.
- Khng tn ti mt cu trc vn ti u
NHNG GI NH CA L THUYT M&M
L THUYT M&M (MODIGLIANI &

MILLER) V CU TRC VN CNG TY
Khng c thu thu nhp doanh nghip/C thu

thu nhp doanh nghip
Khng c chi ph giao dch
Khng c chi ph khn kh v ti chnh
Th trng ti chnh l hon ho
MNH M&M I (KHNG C THU)

(1)
CC MNH M&M
Ga s Cng ty A hin l cng ty khng c vay n.

Cng ty ang xem xt pht hnh tri phiu mua
li c phiu ca cng ty nhm thay i c cu vn.
Tnh hnh ti sn v ngun vn ca cng ty hin ti
v sau khi pht hnh tri phiu mua li c phiu
c trnh by bng 1.
Mnh M&M I: Xem xt mi quan h gia

gi tr cng ty v cu trc vn
Mnh M&M II: xem xt mi quan h gia
chi ph s dng vn ch s hu v cu trc vn.

(2)

(3)
Bng 1: Cu trc vn ca Cng ty A

Ti sn ($)
N ($)
Vn ch s hu ($)
Li sut (%)
Gi th trng ca CP ($)
S c phiu hin hu
10
Hin ti
8.000
ngh
8.000
0
8.000
10
20
400
4.000
4.000
10
20
200
11
Bng 2: Kt qu HKD ng vi c cu vn hin ti

ROA (%)
Li nhun rng ($)
ROE (%)
EPS ($)
Suy thoi K vng Tng trng

5
15
25
400
5
1
1.200
15
3
2.000
25
5
12

(4)

(5)
Bng 3: Kt qu HKD ng vi c cu vn ngh

ROA (%)
Li nhun rng ($)
Li vay ($)
LN sau khi tr li vay
ROE (%)
EPS ($)
Suy thoi K vng Tng trng

5
25
15
- Nu nh thc t xy ra nh k vng, s dng n

by l c li cho cc c ng bi v EPS ln hn so
vi trng hp khng s dng n by.
400
-400
0
1.200
-400
800
2.000
-400
1.600
- Nu kinh t suy thoi s dng n by ti chnh s

gy ra ri ro cho cc c ng (EPS thp hn so vi
trng hp khng s dng n).
0
0
20
4
40
8
- Liu thay i cu trc vn c tt hn cho cc c

ng?
13

(6)
14

(7)
- Modigliani v Miller tranh lun thuyt phc

rng cng ty khng th thay i gi tr cng ty bng
cch thay i cu trc vn.
- Ni mt cch khc, khng c cu trc vn no
c xem l ti u.
- Mnh M&M 1 - Gi tr cng ty: Trong iu kin

khng c thu TNDN, gi tr Cty c vay n (VL) bng
gi tr Cty khng c vay n (VU). Ni mt cch khc:
Gi tr cng ty khng ph thuc vo cu trc vn.
Khng c cu trc vn no c xem l ti u.
- y l ni dung chnh ca mnh M&M 1
15
16

(8)

(9)
Bng 4: Kt qu u t ca 2 phng n
- chng minh cho mnh 1, chng ta xem xt 2

phng n u t sau:
Suy thoi
K vng
Tng trng
Phng n A
Phng n A: Mua 100 CP ca cng ty c vay n

(cng ty c s dng n by ti chnh)
EPS ca cng ty c vay n
Li nhun t u t vo 100 CP
400
800
Phng n B: Vay 2.000 USD cng vi 2.000

USD t c mua 200 CP ca cng ty khng c vay
n mc gi 200 USD (n by t to homemade
leverage).
2.000
2.000
2.000
Phng n B
Vn u t
EPS ca cng ty khng vay n
Li nhun t u t vo 200 CP
Tr li vay (10%)
Li nhun rng
Vn u t = 200*20 2.000
200
600
1.000
-200
-200
-200
400
800
2.000
2.000
2.000
17

(10)
18
MNH M&M II (KHNG C THU)

(1)
- Li nhun k vng trn vn ch s hu c quan h
Kt lun
t l thun vi n by ti chnh hay t s n.
Vic ti cu trc vn khng nh hng n gi tr

cng ty.
Nh u t khng nhn c bt k li ch g t
n by ti chnh cng ty th cng chng nhn
c g t n by t to.
rS = r0 +
B
( r0 rB )
S
- rS: Li nhun k vng trn vn ch s hu

- rB: Li sut n vay hay chi ph s dng n
- r0: Chi ph s dng vn nu Cty s dng 100% VCSH
- B: Gi tr cc khon n
- S: Gi tr vn ch s hu
19
20

(2)
rWACC =

(3)
B
S
rB +
rS
B+S
B+S
T kt lun trn, ta c: rWACC = r0

B
S
rWACC =
rB +
rB = r0
B+S
B+S
- i vi cng ty khng vay n (bng 2)

0
8.000
rWACC =
10% +
15% = 15%
0 + 8.000
0 + 8.000
Nhn 2 v ca biu thc trn vi (B+S)/S, ta c:

B
B+S
rB + rS =
r0
S
S
- i vi cng ty c vay n (bng 3)
rWACC =
4.000
4.000
10% +
20% = 15%
4.000 + 4.000
4.000 + 4.000
- Kt lun: Trong iu kin khng c thu, WACC
khng ph thuc vo cu trc vn

21
MNH M&M I (C THU TNDN)
B
B
rB + rS = r0 + r0
S
S
B
rS = r0 + (r0 rB )
S
22
CHNG MINH MNH M&M I (C THU)

(1)
Trong trng hp c thu thu nhp doanh nghip, gi

tr cng ty c vay n bng gi tr cng ty khng vay
n cng vi hin gi ca l chn thu.
V L = VU + TC B
Cng ty WP c EBIT hng nm l 1 triu USD.

Thu sut thu TNDN m cng ty phI chu l 35%.
Ton b lI nhun sau thu u c s dng tr
c tc cho c ng. Cng ty xem xt la chn 2
phng n v cu trc vn:
Phng n 1: Khng s dng n trong c cu vn
Phng n 2: Vay 4 triu USD vi li sut 10%
23
24

(2)
Bng 5: Dng tin cho cc c ng v tri ch
Phng n 1 Phng n 2
EBIT
1.000.000
1.000.000
Li vay (rB=10%)
0
-400.000
Li nhun trc thu
1.000.000
600.000
Thu TNDN
-350.000
-210.000
Li nhun sau thu
650.000
390.000
Dng tin dnh cho c ng v
650.000
790.000
tri ch

(3)
- Dng tin sau thu ca cng ty khng vay n:
EBIT x (1 TC)
- Gi tr cng ty khng vay n:
VU =
EBITx (1 TC )
r0
25

(4)
- Dng tin sau thu ca cng ty c vay n:
(EBIT rBB) x (1 TC) + rBB = EBIT x (1 TC) + rBBTC
- Gi tr cng ty c vay n:
VL =
EBITx (1 TC ) rB BTC
+
r0
rB
26
MNH M&M II (C THU TNDN)
Trong trng hp c thu thu nhp doanh nghip, li

nhun k vng trn vn ch s hu cng c quan h
t l thun vi n by ti chnh, nhng mi quan h
ny c iu chnh bi yu t thu nh sau:
rS = r0 +
V L = VU + TC B
27
B
x (1 TC ) x ( r0 rB )
S
28
CHNG MINH MNH M&M II (C THU)

(1)
Theo mnh M&M I trong trng hp c thu thu
nhp doanh nghip th:
V L = VU + TC B VU + TC B = B + S
Dng tin k vng ca v bn tri:

(2)
SrS + BrB = VU r0 + TC BrB

Chia 2 v ca phng trnh trn cho S, sau chuyn
v, ta c:
rS =
VU r0 + TC BrB
VU
Br
r0 (1 TC ) B
S
S
Theo mnh M&M 1, chng ta c:
Dng tin k vng ca cc tri ch v c ng:
SrS + BrB
VU + TC B = B + S VU = S + (1 TC ) B
29

(3)
rS =
S + (1 TC ) B
Br
r0 (1 TC ) B
S
S
rS = r0 +
(1 TC ) B
Br
r0 (1 TC ) B
S
S
rS = r0 +
B
x (1 TC ) x ( r0 rB )
S
30
TM TT L THUYT M&M
(Trng hp khng c thu TNDN)
- Mnh M&M I: Gi tr cng ty c vay n bng
gi tr ca cng ty khng c vay n, ngha l:
VU = V L
- Li nhun k vng trn vn ch s hu c quan h
t l thun vi n by ti chnh hay t s n.
rS = r0 +
31
B
( r0 rB )
S
32
TM TT L THUYT M&M
(Trng hp c thu thu nhp doanh nghip)
Mnh M&M I: Gi tr cng ty c vay n bng gi
tr cng ty khng vay n cng vi hin gi ca l
chn thu.
V L = VU + TC B
Mnh M&M II: Mi quan h gia LN k vng v
n by ti chnh c th hin bng cng thc sau:
rS = r0 +
B
x (1 TC ) x ( r0 rB )
S
33

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
L THUYT M&M V CU VN CA CNG TY

Mc iu:
Bi ny xem xt chi tit hn v l thuyt M&M nhm b sung cho bi 9. Trong bi ny
cc gi nh ca l thuyt M&M s ln lt c tho b xem xt tc ng ca cc
yu t thu, chi phi ph sn, chi ph khn kh ti chnh nh th no n c cu vn. c
xong bi ny bn s hiu c y hn ni dung ca l thuyt hin i (M&M) v c
cu vn, thy c gi tr cng ty v chi ph s dng s thay i th no theo l gii ca
M&M khi cc gi nh ln lt c tho b.
1. CC GI NH V MNH CA L THUYT M&M
L thuyt M&M v c cu vn ca cng ty c Modigliani v Miller a ra t nm
1958. n nay gn na th k tri qua nhng nhiu th h sinh vin vn b ng v t
ra rt kh hiu khi bn v l thuyt M&M. V l , phn ny tm tt cc gi nh v
mnh quan trng ca l thuyt M&M nhm gip cho bn d dng hn khi tip cn vi
l thuyt M&M, trc khi i su vo chi tit. L thuyt M&M da trn nhng gi nh
quan trng sau y:
-
Gi nh v thu
Gi nh v chi ph giao dch
Gi nh v chi ph khn kh ti chnh
Gi nh v th trng hon ho.
V ni dung, l thuyt M&M c pht biu thnh hai mnh quan trng. Mnh th
nht (I) ni v gi tr cng ty. Mnh th hai (II) ni v chi ph s dng vn. Cc mnh
n ny ln lt s c xem xt trong hai trng hp ng vi hai gi nh chnh: c
thu v khng c thu.
2. L THUYT M&M TRONG TRNG HP KHNG C THU
y l trng hp n gin nht khi xem xt l thuyt M&M. Trong trng hp ny tt
c cc gi nh ca M&M u c tun th nhm n gin ha vn cn nghin cu.
Cc gi nh y ca l thuyt M&M bao gm:
-
Khng c thu thu nhp doanh nghip v thu thu nhp c nhn
Khng c chi ph giao dch
Khng c chi ph ph sn v chi ph kh khn ti chnh
C nhn v cng ty u c th vay tin mc li sut nh nhau
Th trng vn l th trng hon ho.
Vi nhng gi nh nh trn, ni dung ca l thuyt M&M c pht biu thnh hai

mnh nh sp c trnh by di y.

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
2.1 Mnh I Gi tr cng ty

Trong iu kin khng c thu, gi tr cng ty c vay n (VL) bng gi tr ca cng ty
khng c vay n (VU), ngha l VU = VL. Mnh ny c th pht biu theo cch khc l
trong iu kin khng c thu, gi tr cng ty c vay n v khng vay n l nh nhau, do
, c cu n/vn (B/S) khng c nh hng g n gi tr cng ty. V vy, khng c c
cu vn no l ti u v cng ty cng khng th no tng gi tr bng cch thay i c
cu vn.
minh ha cho mnh I chng ta xem xt v d nh sau1: Gi s gi tr th
trng ca cng ty JSC l 1.000$. Cng ty hin ti khng c vay n v gi mi c phn
ca cng ty mc 10$. Gi s rng JSC d nh vay 500$ tr thm c tc 5$ cho mi
c phn. Sau khi vay n cng ty tr thnh cng ty c vay n (levered) so vi trc kia
khng c vay n (unlevered). C v s kh nng xy ra i vi gi tr cng ty, nhng
nhn chung c th tm tt thnh mt trong ba kh nng xy ra sau khi vay n: (1) Gi tr
cng ty s ln hn gi tr ban u, (2) Gi tr cng ty vn nh gi tr ban u, v (3) Gi
tr cng ty nh hn gi tr ban u. Gi s sau khi lin h ngn hng u t, cc nh t
vn uy tn khng nh rng chnh lch gi tr sau khi vay n ti a bng 250$. Bng 9.1
di y trnh by gi tr cng ty theo ba tnh hung.
Bng 9.1: Gi tr cng ty khi c v khng vay n.
Gi tr cng ty khi
Gi tr cng ty sau khi vay n tr c tc
khng c n
I
II
III
N
0
500
500
500
Vn ch s hu
1.000
750
500
250
Gi tr cng ty
$1.000
$1.250
$1.000
$1.000
Chng ta bit rng li ch ca nh u t hay c ng khi mua c phiu cng ty l c
hng c tc v li vn. Sau khi ti cu trc cng ty JSC, gim c ti chnh khng bit
tnh hung no s xy ra, nhng ni chung c ba tnh hung ng vi ba tnh hung thay
i gi tr cng ty nh xt bng 9.1. Li ch ca c ng th hin ty theo cc tnh
hung nh sau (Bng 9.2):
Bng 9.2: Li ch ca c ng sau khi ti cu trc cng ty
Tnh hung
Li vn (+)/l vn (-)
C tc
Li/l rng
I
- 250
500
$250
II
- 500
500
$0
III
- 750
500
- $250
Ross, S.A, Westerfield, R.W., Jaffe, J., (2005), Corporate Finance, McGraw-Hill

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
Nu ban gim c tin rng tnh hung I xy ra th nn ti cu trc cng ty v khi

y c li cho c ng.
Nu ban gim c tin rng tnh hung III xy ra th khng nn ti cu trc cng ty
v ti cu trc s tn hi cho c ng.
Nu tnh hung II xy ra th ti cu trc chng c ngha g, n khng mang li
li ch cng khng lm thit hi cho c ng.
T v d minh ha trn y cho chng ta hai nhn xt: (1) Thay i c cu vn ch c li

cho c ng nu v ch nu gi tr cng ty tng ln, (2) Ban gim c nn chn c cu
vn sao cho gi tr cng ty cao nht, bi v c cu vn c li nht cho c ng.
Tuy nhin, v d ny cha cho chng ta bit c cu vn no c li nht cho c ng, bi
v n cha th ni tnh hung no trong ba tnh hung phn tch trn y s xy ra.
tr li cu hi ny chng ta phi xem xt tc ng ca n by ti chnh, thng
qua v d th hai nh sau: Gi s cng ty Trans Am hin l cng ty khng c vay n.
Cng ty ang xem xt pht hnh tri phiu mua li c phiu ca cng ty nhm thay i
c cu vn. Tnh hnh ti sn v n ca cng ty ng vi c cu vn hin ti v c cu vn
ngh c trnh by bng 9.3.
Bng 9.3: C cu ti chnh ca cng ty Trans Am
Ti sn
N
Vn
Li sut
Gi th trng ca c phn
S c phn ang lu hnh
Hin ti
$8000
0
8000
10%
$20
400
ngh
$8000
4000
4000
10%
$20
200
Kt qu hot ng ca cng ty ty thuc vo tnh hnh ca nn kinh t, ng vi ba tnh

hung xy ra: suy thoi, k vng, v tng trng. Nu s dng c cu vn nh hin ti
th kt qu hot ng ca cng ty ng vi ba tnh hung c trnh by bng 9.4.
Bng 9.4: Kt qu hot ng ca cng ty ng vi c cu vn hin ti
Suy thoi
K vng
Li nhun trn ti sn (ROA)
5%
15%
Li nhun
$400
$1200
Li nhun trn vn c phn (ROE) =
5%
15%
Li nhun/Vn
$1,00
$3,00
Tng trng
25%
$2000
25%
$5,00
Nu thay i c cu vn nh ngh th kt qu hot ng ca cng ty ng vi ba tnh

hung c trnh by bng 9.5.

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bng 9.5: Kt qu hot ng ca cng ty ng vi c cu vn ngh

Suy thoi
K vng
Li nhun trn ti sn (ROA)
5%
15%
Li nhun
$400
$1200
Li vay (=4000 x 10%)
- 400
- 400
Li nhun sau khi tr li
0
800
Li nhun trn vn c phn (ROE) =
0
20%
Li nhun sau li/Vn
$0
$4,00
Bi ging 9bis
Tng trng
25%
$2000
- 400
1600
40%
$8,00
So snh bng 9.4 v 9.5 chng ta thy rng nh hng ca n by ti chnh ph thuc
vo li nhun trc li. Nu li nhun trc li l 1200$ th li nhun trn vn (ROE)
ng vi c cu vn ngh cao hn v ngc li nu li nhun trc li ch c 400$ th
li nhun trn vn (ROE) ng vi c cu vn hin ti cao hn. Vn tc ng ca n
by ti chnh c xem xt k trong bi 8.
Nu chn tnh hung k vng xem xt v so snh EPS ng vi c cu vn hin
ti v EPS ng vi c cu vn ngh, chng ta d nhn thy rng s dng n by l c
li cho c ng bi v EPS = 4$ nu cng ty c vay n, trong khi nu khng vay n th
EPS = 3. Tuy nhin, n by ti chnh cng to ra ri ro, th hin ch nu tnh hnh
kinh t suy thoi th cng ty khng vay n c EPS = 1$, trong khi cng ty vay n th EPS
= 0. Nh vy, liu thay i c cu vn c tt hn cho c ng hay khng?
Modigliani v Miller tranh lun thuyt phc rng cng ty khng th thay i
gi tr cng ty bng cch thay i cu trc vn. Ni khc i, gi tr cng ty vn nh vy
d cu trc vn khc i. Ni mt cch khc na, i vi c ng, khng c cu trc vn
no tt hn cu trc vn no. y chnh l ni chung ca mnh M&M s I. chng
minh cho mnh ny chng ta xem xt v so snh hai chin lc u t nh sau:
-
Chin lc A: Mua 100 c phn ca cng ty c vay n

Chin lc B: Vay 2000$ t ngn hng cng vi 2000$ ring c (cho 4000$
nh cng ty i vay) mua 200 c phn ca cng ty khng c vay n mc gi
20$.
Lu chin lc A, bn mua c phn ca cng ty c vay n, ngha l mua c phn ca

cng ty c s dng n by. chin lc B, bn vay tin u t vo cng ty khng c
vay n, vic bn i vay n cng xem nh s dng n by nhng y l n by t to
(homemade leverage). Kt qu u t ca hai chin lc c trnh by bng 9.6.
Bng 9.6: Li ch v chi ph ca c ng theo hai c cu vn v hai chin lc
Tnh hung
Chin lc A: Mua 100 c phn ca cng ty c Suy thoi K vng Tng trng
vay n
EPS ca cng ty c vay n (Bng 9.5)
$0
$4
$8
Li nhun u t 100 c phn
$0
$400
$800
Chi ph = 100@$20 = 2000$

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Chin lc B: n by t to
EPS ca cng ty khng vay n (Bng 9.4)
Li nhun u t 200 c phn
Tr li vay (vay 2000 vi li sut 10%)
Li nhun rng
Chi ph = 200@$20 2000 (n vay) = 2000$
Bi ging 9bis
$1
200
- 200
$0
$3
600
- 200
$400
$5
1000
- 200
$800
Kt qu tnh ton bng 9.6 cho thy rng c hai chin lc u c chi ph nh nhau
(2000$) v em li li nhun rng cho c ng nh nhau: 0; 400 v 800$ ng vi mi
tnh hung. T chng ta c th kt lun rng bng vic ti cu trc vn, cng ty Trans
Am khng lm li cng khng lm hi cho c ng. Ni khc i, nh u t no khng
nhn bt c th g t n by ti chnh cng ty th cng chng nhn c g theo cch
ring ca h.
Tr li bng 9.2 chng ta thy rng, gi tr cng ty khng c vay n l VU = Vn
+ N = 8000 + 0 = 8000$, trong khi gi tr ca cng ty c vay n l VL = Vn + N =
4000 + 4000 = 8000$. Nu v l do g lm cho VL > VU, do , chin lc A tn chi
ph u t hn chin lc B. Nh u t no pht hin iu ny s thch chin lc B, tc
l t mnh i vay tin v u t vo cng ty khng c vay n, v u t theo chin lc B
nh u t b ra t chi ph hn, nhng vn c cng mt mc li nhun nh u t vo
cng ty c vay n. Sm mun g cc nh u t khc cng nhn ra s chnh lch gi ny
v th trng vn l hon ho v nh u t bnh ng v thng tin. Khi y, c nhiu nh
u t dn vo mua cng ty khng vay n khin cho gi tr cng ty khng vay n tng
ln. Qu trnh tip din cho n khi no gi tr cng ty khng vay n tng ln bng gi tr
cng ty c vay n, ngha l VU = VL.
2.2 Mnh II Chi ph s dng vn
Nh phn tch phn trc, n by ti chnh c tc dng khuch i EPS nhng
ng thi lm cho phm vi bin ng ca EPS cng ln hn. iu ny cho thy n by
ti chnh lm cho vn c phn tr nn ri ro hn. Nh vy li nhun yu cu ca vn c
phn phi tng ln. Chng hn nu li nhun th trng l 15% th li nhun yu cu ca
c ng phi ln n 20%. Nhn xt a n mnh M&M s II. Mnh M&M s II
pht biu rng li nhun yu cu trn vn c phn c quan h cng chiu vi mc s
dng n by ti chnh hay t s n. V mt ton hc, mnh M&M s II c th c
biu din bi cng thc:
rs =r 0 +(r0 rB )
B
, trong :
S
rs = li nhun yu cu hay li nhun k vng trn vn c phn

rB = li sut vay hay chi ph s dng n
r0 = chi ph s dng vn nu cng ty s dng 100% vn c phn
B = gi tr ca n hay tri phiu ca cng ty pht hnh
S = gi tr ca vn c phn ca cng ty.

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
chng minh mnh M&M s II, chng ta nh li cch tnh chi ph s dng vn
trung bnh trnh by trong bi 7. Trong bi 7, chng ta bit chi ph s dng vn
trung bnh (rWACC) c xc nh bi cng thc2:
rWACC =
B
S
rB +
rS
B+S
B+S
Vn dng cng thc ny, chng ta tnh c chi ph s dng vn trung bnh ca cng ty
trong hai trng hp: cng ty c vay n v cng ty khng c vay n.
i vi cng ty khng vay n, xt tnh hung k vng bng 9.4, chng ta c li nhun
sau li l 1200 v vn c phn l 8000, do , t sut li nhun trn vn c phn l rS =
1200/8000 = 15%. Thay vo cng thc tnh chi ph s dng vn trung bnh, ta c:
0
8000
rWACC =
x 10% +
15% = 15%
0 + 8000
0 + 8000
i vi cng ty c vay n, xt tnh hung k vng bng 9.5, chng ta c li nhun sau
li l 800 v vn c phn l 4000, do , t sut li nhun trn vn c phn l rS =
800/4000 = 20%. Thay vo cng thc tnh chi ph s dng vn trung bnh, ta c:
4000
4000
rWACC =
x 10% +
20% = 15%
4000 + 4000
4000 + 4000
T kt qu ny cho chng ta kt lun rng, trong iu kin khng c thu, chi ph s dng
vn trung bnh khng i bt chp c cu vn thay i nh th no.
By gi chng ta xt chi ph s dng vn ca cng ty c 100% vn c phn (r0).
i vi cng ty Trans Am, r0 c xc nh nh sau:
r0 =
Li nhuan ky vong cua cong ty khong vay n 1200

=
= 15%
8000
Von co phan cua cong ty khong vay n
Do chi ph s dng vn trung bnh rWACC khng i bt chp t s n thay i nh th

no nn chng ta c th thit lp cn bng: rWACC = r0. Thay biu thc rWACC vo phng
trnh trn chng ta c:
B
S
rB +
rS = r0
B+S
B+S
Nhn hai v ca phng trnh ny vi (B+S)/S, ta c:
rWACC =
B
B+S
B
rB + rS =
r0 = r0 + r0
S
S
S
t B/S ra lm tha s chung v sp xp li cng thc trn, ta c:
y chng ta gi nh rng khng c thu thu nhp cng ty nn T = 0, do , c th b qua (1 T) trong
cng thc tnh chi ph s dng vn trung bnh
2

Nin kho 2006-07
rS =
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
B
B
(r0 rB ) + r0 = r0 + (r0 rB )
S
S
y chnh l cng thc din t ni dung mnh M&M s II. D thy rng cng thc
mnh M&M s II c dng hm s bc nht y = a + bx, trong n s x chnh l t s
n B/S. th biu din hm s ny c dng nh trn hnh 9.1.
By gi chng ta th ng dng mnh M&M s II xc nh chi ph s dng
vn ca c ng i vi cng ty Trans Am. Sau khi ti cu trc cng ty c n vay l
4000$ vi li sut 10% v vn ch s hu l 4000$. Chi ph s dng vn s hu trc
khi ti c cu l 15%. Sau khi ti cu trc, chi ph s dng vn ch s hu:
rS = r0 + (r0 rB )
B
4000
= 15% + (15 10%)
= 20%
S
4000
Hnh 9.1: Mnh M&M s II khi khng c thu
Chi phi s dng vn
rS
rWACC
r0
rB
T s n-vn (B/S)
3. L THUYT M&M TRONG TRNG HP C THU
T u mn hc cng nh ri rc trong cc bi 7 v 8 chng ta thng xuyn cp v

nhn mnh li vay nh l mt yu t c khu tr v gip cng ty tit kim c thu.
By gi chng ta xem xt xem tit kim thu c li g cho cng ty ni chung v cho c
ng ni ring. iu ny cng c gii thch chi tit bi l thuyt M&M trong trng
hp c thu. phn 2, chng ta xem xt l thuyt M&M vi gi nh l khng c thu
thu nhp cng ty. iu ny ch ng trong mt s t trng hp chng hn nh khi cng
7

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
ty mi thnh lp hay nh Vit Nam l cng ty mi c c phn ha c min thu

trong 3 nm u. i a s l trng hp cng ty phi np thu thu nhp. Do , s
khng thc t lm nu gi nh cng ty hot ng trong mi trng khng c thu.
3.1 Mnh s I Gi tr cng ty trong trng hp c thu
Mnh M&M s I xem xt xem gi tr cng ty s thay i th no khi thay i t s n

trn vn (B/S) hay cn gi l t s n by. thy c s thay i ny, l thuyt
M&M xem xt gi tr cng ty trong trng hp khng vay n hay c ti tr bng 100%
vn ch s hu (VU) v gi tr ca cng ty khi c vay n (VL). Ngoi ra, d c vay n
hay khng vay n cng ty vn phi np thu thu nhp vi thu sut l TC. Nu c vay n
(B) bng cch pht hnh tri phiu cng ty s phi tr li sut vay l rB. Nu khng vay
n hay ti tr hot ng cng ty bng 100% vn ch s hu (S) th chi ph s dng vn
ch s hu l r0. Mnh M&M s I pht biu nh sau:
Trong trng hp c thu thu nhp cng ty, gi tr cng ty c vay n bng gi tr
cng ty khng c vay n cng vi hin gi ca l chn thu. V mt ton hc, mnh
M&M s I trong trng hp c thu c din t bi cng thc: VL = VU + TCB.
chng minh cho mnh ny chng ta va xem xt v d minh ha3 va s dng mt
s l lun v bin i i s. V d cng ty WP c thu sut thu thu nhp cng ty l 35%
v li nhun trc thu v li (EBIT) hng nm l 1 triu $. Ton b li nhun sau thu
u c s dng tr c tc cho c ng. Cng ty ang xem xt hai phng n c cu
vn. Theo phng n 1, cng ty khng s dng n trong c cu vn ca mnh. Theo
phng n 2, cng ty vay 4 triu $ n (B) vi li sut, rB, l 10%. Gim c ti chnh tnh
ton dng tin dnh cho c ng v tri ch (bondholders) nh sau:
Bng 9.7: Dng tin dnh cho c ng v tri ch
Li nhun trc thu v li (EBIT)

Li vay (rBB = 4 triu x 10%)
Li nhun trc thu (EBT=EBIT - rBB)
Thu (TC = 35%)
Li nhun sau thu (EAT = (EBIT - rBB)(1 TC)
Dng tin dnh cho c ng v tri ch
(EBIT - rBB)(1 TC) + rBB= EBIT(1 TC) + TCrBB
Phng n 1
$1.000.000
0
1.000.000
- 350.000
650.000
650.000
Phng n 2
$1.000.000
- 400.000
600.000
- 210.000
390.000
790.000
Bng 9.7 cho thy dng tin hng nm dnh cho c ng v tri ch l EBIT(1 TC) +
TCrBB. Cn lu dng tin y l dng tin u mi mi. Chng ta bit rng gi tr ca
cng ty chnh l hin gi ca dng tin vi sut chit khu thch hp. Vi phng n
khng vay n, li sut rB = 0 v dng tin dnh cho c ng chnh l li nhun sau thu.
Chng ta s chit khu dng tin ny sut chit khu r0 c c gi tr cng ty trong
trng khng c vay n:
3
Ross, S.A, Westerfield, R.W., Jaffe, J., (2005), Corporate Finance, McGraw-Hill

Nin kho 2006-07
VU = PV [ EBIT (1 TC )] =
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
EBIT (1 TC )
r0
Vi phng n c vay n, dng tin ca cng ty s gm c hai phn. Phn th nht bng
dng tin ca cng ty khng c vay n, (EBIT(1 TC) v phn th hai chnh l TCrBB.
B phn th hai ny c gi l l chn thu. Do , gi tr cng ty bng hin gi ca b
phn dng tin th nht chit khu sut chit khu l r0 v hin gi ca b phn dng
tin th hai chit khu sut chit khu rB4.
VL = PV [ EBIT (1 TC ) + TC rB B] = PV [ EBIT (1 TC ) + PV (TC rB B) =

=
EBIT (1 TC ) TC rB B
+
r0
rB
EBIT(1 - TC )
+ TC B = VU + TC B
r0
Cng thc ny cho chng ta kt lun, trong trng hp c thu, gi tr cng ty c vay n
bng gi tr cng ty khng c vay n cng vi hin gi ca l chn thu (TCB). y chnh
l ni dung mnh M&M s I.
3.2 Mnh s II Chi ph s dng vn trong trng hp c thu
Trong phn 2, chng ta lm quen vi mnh M&M s II chi ph s dng vn trong

trng hp khng c thu. Nu khng c thu thu nhp cng ty, li nhun yu cu trn
vn c phn c quan h cng chiu vi mc s dng n by ti chnh hay t s n.
Trong trng hp c thu th sao ? Mnh M&M s II gip chng ta tr li cu hi ny.
Trong trng hp c thu, li nhun yu cu trn vn c phn c quan h cng chiu vi
mc s dng n by ti chnh hay t s n nhng mi quan h ny c din t bi
cng thc :
rs =r 0 +(r0 rB )(1 TC )
B
S
Cng thc ny c th c suy ra t mnh M&M s I. Trong trng hp c thu, gi
tr ca cng ty c vay n bng gi tr cng ty khng c vay n cng vi hin gi ca l
chn thu. Do , chng ta c th biu din bng cn i ti sn ca cng ty c vay n
nh sau :
VU = Gi tr cng ty khng vay n
TCB = Hin gi l chn thu
B = N
S = Vn c phn
Ngoi ra, chng ta bit quan h gia gi tr cng ty v dng tin c th hin qua cng
thc chung :
Chng ta xem l chn thu c cng mc ri ro nh n

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
Gi tr cng ty = PV(dng tin) = Dng tin/ Chi ph s dng vn

(v y l dng tin u mi mi)
T y chng ta c th suy ra dng tin k vng bn tri ca bng cn i k ton s l :
VUr0 + TCBrB. Tng t, dng tin rng bn tay phi ca bng cn i k ton l BrB +
SrS. Theo nguyn tc k ton, tng ti sn bng tng ngun vn v bi v dng tin xem
xt y l dng tin u mi mi v ton b dng tin to ra u c tr c tc nn
dng tin bn ti sn ca cng ty thuc v c ng, do , chng ta c th thit lp cn
bng :
BrB + SrS = VUr0 + TCBrB
Chia hai v phng trnh ny cho S, sau chuyn v, ta c:
rS =
VU r0 TC BrB BrB VU
Br
+
=
r0 (1 TC ) B
S
S
S
S
S
Theo mnh M&M s I, chng ta c gi tr cng ty : VL = VU + TCB = B+S. T y suy

ra VU = S + (1 TC)B. Thay gi tr ca VU vo biu thc tnh rS, ta c :
rS =
VU
S + (1 TC ) B
(1 TC ) B
Br
B
B
r0 (1 TC ) B =
r0 (1 TC ) rB = r0 +
r0 (1 TC ) rB
S
S
S
S
S
S
t (1 TC)B/S ra lm tha s chung, chng ta c :

rS = r0 +
(1 TC ) B
B
(r0 rB ) = r0 + (r0 rB )(1 TC )
S
S
y chnh l cng thc din t ni dung mnh M&M s II cn chng minh.

3.3 V d minh ha ng dng l thuyt M&M
Phn 3.1 v 3.2 xem xt l thuyt M&M vi hai mnh s I v s II trong trng
hp c thu thu nhp cng ty. By gi gip bn hiu thm l thuyt M&M hot ng
nh th no trong thc tin, chng ta cng xem v d minh ha nh sau :
Cng ty DA hin ti l cng ty khng c vay n. Cng ty k vng kim c li
nhun trc thu v li (EBIT) mc 138,89 t ng ko di mi mi. Thu sut
thu thu nhp cng ty l 28% v ton b li nhun sau thu u c dng tr
li. Cng ty ang xem xt ti cu trc vn, theo cng ty s vay n 200 t ng
vi li sut vay l 10%. Cng ty khng c vay n trong cng ngnh vi cng ty
DA c chi ph s dng vn c phn l 20%. Gi tr cng ty DA sau khi ti cu
trc l bao nhiu ?
Theo mnh M&M s I, gi tr cng ty DA sau khi ti cu trc s bng :
10

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
EBIT(1 - TC )
138,89(1 0,28)
+ TC B =
+ 0,28(200) = 500 + 56 = 556 t ng. Gi tr
r0
0,20
ny ln hn gi tr ca cng ty khi khng vay n l 56 t ng. Bi v gi tr cng ty
bng ngun vn nn ta c VL = B+S = 556. Suy ra gi tr ca vn S = 556 200 = 356 t
ng.
VL =
Theo mnh M&M s II, ta c chi ph s dng vn c phn sau khi cng ty vay n l
rS = r0 + (r0 rB )(1 TC )
B
200
= 20 + (20 10)(1 0,28)
= 24,04%
S
356
Chng ta bit dng tin dnh cho c ng chnh l li nhun sau thu v li c cng thc
tnh l (EBIT rBB)(1 TC). S dng sut chit khu rs va xc nh chng ta c th tm
li c gi tr vn c phn nh sau :
( EBIT rB B )(1 TC ) [138,89 200(10%)](1 0,28)
=
= 356 t ng. Kt qu ny ph
0,2404
rS
hp vi kt qu va tnh ton trn y.
S=
Trong bi 7 chng ta bit cng thc tnh chi ph s dng vn trung bnh trong trng
hp cng ty c vay n v c thu thu nhp bng :
rWACC =
B
S
200
356
(1 TC )rB + rS =
(1 0,28)10 +
24,04 = 17,98%
VL
VL
556
556
Ngoi ra chng ta bit gi tr cng ty c vay n bng hin gi ca dng tin rng sau thu
vi sut chit khu bng chi ph s dng vn trung bnh. S dng rWACC va tnh ton
c lm sut chit khu chng ta c gi tr cng ty khi c vay n bng :
EBIT (1 TC ) 138,89(1 0,28)

=
= 556 t ng. Kt qu ny ph hp vi kt qu va
rWACC
0,1798
tnh ton trn y khi p dng mnh M&M s I. Hn na, kt qu ny cn l gii v
sao trong bi 6 khi tnh NPV ca d n u t theo quan im tng u t chng ta phi
s dng chi ph s dng vn trung bnh lm sut chit khu trong khi tnh NPV, theo
quan im ch u t chng ta phi s dng chi ph s dng vn ch s hu l sut chit
khu. Vn ny chng ta tm chp nhn trong bi 6 ch n khi hc xong l
thuyt M&M mi c th gii thch c.
V d minh ha trn y cn cho thy s tc ng ca n by ti chnh ln chi
ph s dng vn. Ni chung vay n gip cng ty tit kim thu nn lm cho chi ph s
dng vn trung bnh (rWACC) gim. Mt khc n by ti chnh lm gia tng ri ro i vi
vn c phn nn chi ph s dng vn c phn (rs) tng ln khi cng ty gia tng t s n.
iu ny c minh ha trn hnh 13.2.
VL =
11

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
Hnh 13.2: Anh hng cua on bay tai chnh len chi ph s dung khi co thue
Chi ph s du ng von: r
(%)
rS = r0 +
rS = r0 +
B
(r0 rB )
SL
B
(1 TC ) (r0 rB )
SL
r0
rWACC =
B
SL
rB (1 TC ) +
rS
B+SL
B + SL
rB
Ty so n (B/S)
4. NH HNG CA THU V CHI PH KHN KH TI CHNH LN GI

TR CNG TY V CHI PH S DNG VN
Nh trnh by trong phn 3, Modigliani v Miller cho rng, trong trng hp c thu,
gi tr cng ty tng ln v chi ph s dng vn trung bnh gim xung khi cng ty gia tng
t s n. iu ny ng rng cng ty nn s dng n cng nhiu cng tt. L thuyt
M&M khng tnh n ng thi ca cng ty trn thc t. Mt s tc gi khc phn bc
li rng trn thc t khng phi gi tr cng ty tng mi khi t s n gi tng, bi v khi t
s n gia tng lm pht sinh mt loi chi ph, gi l chi ph khn kh ti chnh (financial
distress costs), lm gim i s gia tng gi tr ca cng ty c vay n. n mt im no
ca t s n, chi ph khn kh ti chnh s vt qua li ch ca l chn thu, khi y gi
tr cng ty c vay n bt u gim dn. L lun tng t, chi ph s dng vn trung bnh
ca cng ty bt u tng ln. iu ny c minh ha trn hnh 13.3
Hnh 13.3 cho thy khi gia tng lng n s dng, cng ty c c li ch bng
hin gi ca l chn thu. Chnh li ch ny lm cho gi tr cng ty c vay n tng ln.
Mt khc, cng vi s gia tng ca lng n s dng, chi ph khn kh ti chnh cng
tng theo. Chnh chi ph ny lm gim i li ch ca l chn thu. Khi lng n tng ln
n im B*, hin gi chi ph khn kh ti chnh bng ng hin gi ca l chn thu.
im B* c gi l im ti u, gi tr cng ty t mc ti a v chi ph s dng
vn trung bnh ca cng ty t mc ti thiu. Nu cng ty tip tc gia tng s dng n th
hin gi chi phi khn kh ti chnh s vt qua hin gi l chn thu. Khi y gi tr cng
ty s bt u gim.
12

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
Hnh 13.3: Tac o ng ong thi cua thue va chi ph kho n kho tai chnh
Gia tr cong ty (V)
Gia tr cua co ng ty
theo MM khi co thue
va n
Hien gia cua

la chan thue
VL = VU + TCB
Hien gia cua
chi ph khon kho
tai chnh
Gia tr
cao nhat
V = Gia tr thc cua cong ty
VU = Gia tr cua cong ty khong co n
N (B)
0
B*
Lng n toi u
Vn t ra l chi ph khn kh ti chnh l nhng chi ph g v lm th no xc

nh ? Tht ra khi nim chi ph khn kh ti chnh l khi nim l thuyt. Trn thc t
rt kh quan st v xc nh c loi chi ph ny. Tuy nhin, ngi ta c th lit k v
phn loi chi ph khn kh ti chnh thnh chi chi ph khn kh ti chnh trc tip v gin
tip. Chi ph trc tip c th xc nh v quan st c nh l chi ph tr cho lut s gii
quyt ph sn, chi ph tr cho k ton v nhn vin qun tr cng ty trong qu trnh ch
ph sn. Cn cc chi ph khn kh ti chnh gin tip nh l chi ph do mt khch hng
v nh cung cp, mt nhn vin gii, hay chi ph mt i do ban qun l bn tm vo
nhng kh khn ti chnh ca cng ty, th rt kh quan st v xc nh c c th.
Tm tt
L thuyt M&M v c cu vn c xem l l thuyt hin i l gii c quan h gia

gi tr cng ty, chi ph s dng vn v mc s dng n ca cng ty. Modigliani v
Miller a ra hai mnh v xem xt trong hai trng hp c thu v khng c thu.
Trong trng hp khng c thu, gi tr cng ty c vay n v gi tr cng ty
khng c vay n l nh nhau. Do , gi tr cng ty khng thay i khi c cu vn ca
cng ty thay i. Hay ni khc i, vic thay i c cu vn khng mang li li ch g cho
c ng. y chnh l ni dung mnh M&M s I. Mnh M&M s II cho rng, chi
ph s dng vn trung bnh khng i trong khi chi ph s dng vn c phn tng ln khi
cng ty gia tng t s n.
Trong trng hp c thu, gi tr cng ty c vay n bng gi tr cng ty khng
vay n cng vi hin gi ca l chn thu do s dng n. Nhu vy, vic s dng n hay
s dng n by ti chnh lm gia tng gi tr cng ty. y chnh l ni dung mnh
M&M s I trong trng hp c thu. Mnh M&M s II trong trng hp c thu cho
13

Nin kho 2006-07
Phn tch Ti chnh
Bi ging 9bis
rng chi ph s dng vn trung bnh gim trong khi chi ph s dng vn c phn tng ln
khi cng ty gia tng t s n.
Tuy nhin, l thuyt M&M cha xem xt tc ng ca mt s chi ph khc khin
cho li ch ca l chn thu b gim dn v i n trit tiu khi cng ty gia tng t s n.
chnh l tc ng ca chi ph khn kh ti chnh. Khi cng ty gia tng s dng n lm
cho ri ro ca cng ty tng theo. iu ny lm pht sinh chi ph khn kh ti chnh tc
ng ng thi vi li ch ca l chn thu. n mt im no th chi ph khn kh ti
chnh s vt qua li ch ca l chn thu. im , gi l im c cu vn ti u, gi
tr cng ty t cc i v chi ph s dng vn trung bnh t cc tiu. Khi cng ty tip tc
gia tng s dng n, cng ty s vt qua im ti u, gi tr cng ty bt u gim v
chi ph s dng vn trung bnh ca cng ty bt u tng. Li ch ca l chn thu khng
b p cho chi ph khn kh v ti chnh.
Tic rng khi nim chi ph khn kh v ti chnh l khi nim ch c gi tr l
thuyt. Trn thc tin rt kh quan st v xc nh c tt c cc loi chi ph c lin
quan n chi ph khn kh ti chnh. Ch c nhng loi chi ph khn kh ti chnh trc
tip nh chi ph lut s, k ton theo di v gii quyt ph sn mi c th quan st v xc
nh c, cn cc loi chi ph khn kh ti chnh gin tip khc nh chi ph do mt
khch hng, mt nh cung cp, mt nhn vin gii, mt thi gian v cng sc ca ban
qun l vo vic i ph vi kh khn ti chnh th rt kh quan st v xc nh c th.
14

QTTC MR - LOC PDF

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QTTC MR - LOC PDF

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CHNG 1: KHI QUT V TCDN

- Ti chnh doanh nghip l tng hp cc mi quan

- Qun tr ti chnh l vic huy ng, phn b v

III. Mc tiu ca qun tr ti chnh doanh nghip

CHC NNG CA TI CHNH DN

MC TIU CA QUN TR TI CHNH

Huy ng cc ngun qu (quyt nh ti tr)

Ti a ho li nhun sau thu

Yu t thi gian ca thu nhp

VAI TR CA GIM C TI CHNH

m bo ngun ti chnh cho doanh nghip

CHNG 2: PHN TCH BO CO

Khi qut cc bo co ti chnh ca cng ty

Phn tch cc t s ti chnh

Tin v cc khon tng ng tin

Phn tch ti chnh bng s Dupont

Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn

Cc khon phi thu di hn

Ngun kinh ph v qu khc

Doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v

Chi ph qun l doanh nghip

Cc khon gim tr doanh thu

Li nhun thun t hot ng kinh doanh

Doanh thu thun v bn hng v cung cp dch v

Thu nhp khc

Li nhun gp v bn hng v cung cp dch v

Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh

Tng li nhun k ton trc thu

Thu thu nhp doanh nghip

Li nhun sau thu thu nhp doanh nghip

PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNH

Phn nh s thay i v tin mt do cc hot ng

Phn tch bo co ti chnh ca doanh nghip l vic

Dng tin t hot ng sn xut kinh doanh

Thng tin phn tch cc t s ti chnh l t:

Dng tin t hot ng u t

Dng tin t hot ng ti chnh

- Bo co kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh

TI SAO PHN TCH BO CO TI CHNH

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

Gip cc nh qun l doanh nghip phn tch, nh

Cc t s thanh khon (thanh ton)

Gip cc nh cung cp tn dng nh gi kh nng tr

T s thanh ton hin thi (Rc)

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

T s thanh ton nhanh (RQ)

T s vng quay hng tn kho (RI)

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

K thu tin bnh qun (RT)

Hiu qu s dng TSC

Cc khon phi thu bnh qun

Doanh thu thun

Doanh thu bnh qun mt ngy

Hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn

Tng gi tr TSC (bnh qun)

Doanh thu thun

Tng gi tr ti sn (bnh qun)

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

PHN TCH CC T S TI CHNH

Hiu qu s dng TSC

Hiu qu s dng ton b ti sn