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Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright
Nin kha 2011-2013
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Ch. 7: Gii thiu v ri ro, li nhun,
v chi ph s dng vn c hi
Chng 7
GII THIU V RI RO, LI NHUN V CHI PH

S DNG VN C HI
Chng ta i qua su chng trc m khng cp trc tip n vn ri ro, nhng by gi
n lc phi cp. Chng ta khng th hi lng vi cc cu pht biu khng r rng nh
chi ph s dng vn c hi ph thuc vo ri ro ca d n. Chng ta cn phi bit ri ro
c nh ngha nh th no, mi lin kt gia ri ro v chi ph s dng vn c hi l g, v nh
qun l ti chnh x l vn ri ro trong cc tnh hung thc t nh th no.
Trong chng ny, chng ti s tp trung vo vn u tin trong ba vn trn v cc
chng 8, 9 s gii quyt hai vn cn li. Chng ti bt u bng cch tng kt mc li tc
ca th trng chng khon trong gn 70 nm. Sau chng ti s xem xt s b ri ro u t v
chng minh lm th no m a dng ha danh mc u t c th lm gim ri ro. Chng ti s
gii thiu vi bn h s beta, s o ri ro chun cho tng chng khon ring bit.
Cc im chnh trong chng ny l ri ro ca danh mc u t, ri ro ca chng khon v
a dng ho. Hu ht trong chng ny, chng ti s ng trn quan im ca nh u t c
nhn. Nhng cui chng, chng ti s xem xt li vn v tr li cu hi liu a dng ho
c ngha ra sao trong mc tiu ca cng ty.
7.1 LCH S 69 NM CA TH TRNG CHNG KHON TRONG MT BI HC
N GIN.
Cc nh phn tch ti chnh thng c cung cp mt khi lng d liu khng l v gi v
sut sinh li ca chng khon. V d, trung tm nghin cu gi chng khon ca i hc
Chicago pht trin mt tp tin v gi v c tc cho tng thng t nm 1926 cho tng loi
chng khon c nim yt ti S giao dch chng khon New York (New York Stock Exhange
- NYSE). Cc tp tin khc s cung cp cc d liu v chng khon c giao dch ti S giao
dch chng khon Hoa K (American Stock Exchange) v th trng giao dch qua quy (th
trng phi tp trung, Over-the-counter), d liu cho cc tri phiu, quyn chn , vv Nhng v
gi nh y l mt bi hc n gin, chng ta s tp trung vo nghin cu ca Ibbotson
Associates vi cc s liu qu kh ca nm tp danh mc u t chng khon:
1. Mt tp danh mc u t cc tn phiu Kho bc, tc l cc giy n ca nh nc Hoa K c
thi gian o hn di 1 nm.
2. Mt tp danh mc u t cc tri phiu di hn ca nh nc Hoa K.
3. Mt tp danh mc u t cc tri phiu di hn ca cc cng ty.1
4. Ch s tng hp Standard and Poor (S&P 500), i din cho mt tp danh mc u t cc c
phiu thng ca 500 cng ty ln (mc d n ch l mt phn nh trong s 7000 cc cng ty
Hai tp danh mc u t tri phiu c xem li hng nm gi thi gian o hn khng i.
Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Hiu nh: T nh Khi, Cao Ho Thi
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

c giao dch rng ri publicly traded companies c a vo trong danh sch S&P.
Cc cng ty ln ny chim khong 70% gi tr giao dch ca cc chng khon.)
5. Mt danh mc u t cc c phiu thng ca cc cng ty nh.
Hnh 7.1 u t 1 USD vo u nm 1926 pht trin nh th no, bng cch gi s ti u t tt c cc c tc v

li tri phiu. (ngun: Ibbotson Associates, Inc., Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 1995 Yearbook, Chicago 1995;
t y tr v sau trong chng ch ghi tt l the 1995 Yearbook.)
Cc u t ny c ri ro khc nhau. Tri phiu Kho bc c coi l u t khng ri ro

m bn c th thc hin. Khng c ri ro ph sn v thi gian o hn ngn c ngha l gi ca
tri phiu kho bc s tng i n nh. Thc vy, mt nh u t mun cho vay tin, trong 3
thng chng hn, c th chc chn c li nu mua tri phiu kho bc o hn trong 3 thng. Tuy
nhin, nh u t cng khng th hon ton nhn c mt li sut thc: Vn cn mt t ri ro
lin quan n lm pht.
Bng cch chuyn sang tri phiu nh nc di hn, nh u t s nhn c mt ti sn m
gi ca n s dao ng khi lm pht thay i. (Gi tri phiu gim khi li sut tng v tng khi
li sut gim.) Mt nh u t mun chuyn t tri phiu nh nc sang tri phiu cng ty s
phi chp nhn thm ri ro ph sn. Mt nh u t chuyn t tri phiu cng ty sang c phiu
thng phi san s trc tip cc ri ro ca cng ty.
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Hnh 7.2 u t 1 USD vo u nm 1826 s pht trin gi tr thc nh th no, bng cch gi nh rng ti u t
tt c c tc v li tri phiu. So snh vi hnh 7.1, v hy ghi nhn nh hng ca lm pht ln sc mua ca li
nhun ca nh u t nh th no. (Source: Ibbotson Associates, Inc., 1995 Yearbook.)
Hnh 7.1 cho thy tin ca bn s tng trng nh th no nu bn u t 1$ vo u nm

1926 v ti u t tt c c tc hay li tri phiu nhn c t danh mc u t. 2 Hnh 7.2 cng
ging nh vy nhng n m t s tng trng theo gi tr tht s ca tp danh mc u t. y
chng ta s tp trung vo gi tr danh ngha.
Mc sinh li ca cc tp danh mc u t trng vi nhn thc v ri ro theo trc gic ca
chng ta. Mt la u t vo loi u t an ton nht, tri phiu Kho bc, s tng ln 12$ vo
nm 1994, ch va cho lm pht. u t vo tri phiu Kho bc di hn s to ra c 26$, v
tri phiu cng ty s cao hn mt t. C phiu thng thuc mt nhm khc. Mt nh u t b 1
$ mua c phiu ca cc cng ty ln ca Hoa k s nhn c 811$. Tuy nhin, nhng ngi thu
li nhiu nht l nhng nh u t vo cc cng ty nh, h nhn c 2843$ cho mi la u
t.
Ibbotson Associates cng tnh ton sut sinh li t cc tp danh mc u t ny cho tng
nm t nm 1926 n nm 1994. Sut sinh li ny phn nh c tin thu c tc c tc hay li
tri phiu v mc tng hay gim gi trong nm. Mc trung bnh ca 69 sut sinh li hng nm
cho mi tp danh mc u t c biu din trong bng 7.1.
T nm 1926, tri phiu Kho bc (ngn hn) cho sut sinh li trung bnh t nht 3.7% hng
nm theo gi tr danh ngha v 0.6% theo gi tr thc. Ni cch khc, gi tr trung bnh ca lm
pht trong thi k ny khong trn 3% mt nm. C phiu thng cng li l ngi chin thng.
C phiu thng ca cc cng ty ln s cho sut sinh li c b p ri ro trung bnh khong
2
Gi tr ca tp danh mc u t c v trn thang o logarit. Nu khng, th cc gi tr cui ca hai tp danh mc u t c

phiu thng s ra khi giy v.
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
8,4% nm, cao hn sut sinh li ca tri phiu Kho bc. C phiu thng ca cc cng ty nh
cn c mc li cao hn na.
BNG 7.1
Sut sinh li trung bnh ca tn phiu Kho bc, tri phiu nh nc di hn, tri phiu cng ty v
c phiu thng, 1926 1994 (s theo % hng nm)
Sut sinh li trung bnh

hng nm
Tp danh mc u t
Danh ngha
Thc
B p ri ro trung
bnh (phn chnh lch
gia li tc vi li tc
tri phiu Kho bc
ngn hn)
Tri phiu Kho bc ngn hn

3,7
0,6
0
Tri phiu chnh ph di hn
5,2
2,1
1,4
Tri phiu cng ty
5,7
2,7
2,0
C phiu thng (S&P 500)
12,2
8,9
8,4
C phiu thng cng ty nh
17,4
13,9
13,7
(Ngun: Ibbotson Associates, Inc., 1995 Yearbook)
Bn c th t hi ti sao chng ti phi nhn li mt khong thi gian di nh vy tnh
ton gi tr ca sut sinh li trung bnh hng nm. L do l sut sinh li hng nm ca cc c
phiu thng dao ng nhiu n mc nu ch ly trung bnh trong mt thi gian ngn th con s
s tr nn v ngha. Hy vng duy nht ca chng ta khi phi nhn su vo gi tr lch s ca sut
sinh li l nhn trong mt thi gian di.3
Sut sinh li Trung bnh S hc v Sut sinh li hng nm kp

Hy lu l gi tr trung bnh din t trong bng 7.1 ch l cc s trung bnh s hc. Ni cch
khc, Ibbotson Associates ch cng mt cch n gin 69 sut sinh li hng nm v chia cho 69.
Sut sinh li trung bnh s hc s cao hn sut sinh li hng nm kp (compound annual return)
trong cng thi on. Sut sinh li hng nm kp ca ch s S&P trong 69 nm l 10,2%.4
Vic s dng ng sut sinh li kp v trung bnh s hc t cc u t trong qu kh thng
b hiu lm. V vy, chng ta hy b ra mt t thi gian lm r v d sau.
3
Ngay c vi s liu ca 69 nm, chng ta cng khng th chc rng thi k ny c mang tnh i din tht s hay khng v gi
tr trung bnh khng b bp mo bng mt vi sut thu li cao hay thp bt thng. tin cy ca mt c tnh thng c o
bng sai s chun: v d, sai s chun ca c tnh ca chng ta v b p ri ro trung bnh trn c phiu thng l 2,5%. C
kh nng 95% l trung bnh tht s nm trong khong cng tr 2 sai s chun ca s c tnh 8,4%. Hay ni cch khc, nu bn
ni l tr trung bnh tht s nm trong khong 3,5 n 13,4%, bn c c hi ng l 95% (ghi ch k thut: sai s chun ca tr
trung bnh bng lch chun chia cho cn bc hai ca s ln quan st. Trong trng hp ca chng ta, lch chun l
20,6 / 69 2,5 .)
(1 r ) 811 , vi gi nh r = 0,102 (ghi ch k thut: i vi cc sut thu li theo phn phi log
20,6%, v v vy sai s chun l

4
69
S ny c tnh t
chun, sut thu li hng nm bng trung bnh s hc tr mt na phng sai. V d, lch chun hng nm ca th trng Hoa
K l khong 0,20, hay 20%. V vy phng sai bng 0,20 2, hay 0,04. Sut thu li hng nm bng 0,04 / 2 = 0,02 hay 2% t hn
trung bnh s hc).
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

V d: Gi s gi c phiu thng ca Big Oil l 100$. Xc sut gi vo cui nm ca c

phiu ny bng 90$, 100$ v 130$ th bng nhau. V vy, sut sinh li c th l -10%, +10% hay
+30%. (chng ta hy gi nh l Big Oil khng tr c tc.) Li tc k vng l 1/3(-10 + 10 + 30)
= +10%.
Nu chng ta thc hin qu trnh ny ngc li v chit khu ngn lu k vng bng sut
sinh li k vng ta s nhn c gi tr ca c phiu Big Oil:
PV = 110 / 1.10 = 100$
Sut sinh li k vng 10% l sut chit khu ng chit khu ngn lu k vng ca c
phiu Big Oil. y cng chnh l chi ph s dng vn c hi cho cc u t c cng ri ro vi
Big Oil.
By gi, gi s chng ta quan st sut sinh li ca c phiu Big Oil trong nhiu nm. Nu
khng c g thay i, sut sinh li s l 10% trong 1/3 s nm, +10% trong 1/3 s nm v 30%
trong 1/3 s nm cn li. Trung bnh s hc ca cc sut sinh li hng nm ny l:
10 10 30
10%
3
V vy, gi tr trung bnh s hc ca cc sut sinh li cng phn nh chnh xc chi ph s
dng vn c hi cho cc u t c ri ro bng vi c phiu ca Big Oil.
Sut sinh li hng nm kp ca c phiu Big Oil l:
(0,9 x 1,1 x 1,3)1/3 1 = 0,088 hay 8.8%
nh hn chi ph s dng vn c hi. Nh u t s khng mun u t vo mt d n c sut
sinh li 8,8% trong khi h c th nhn c mt sut sinh li k vng l 10% ti th trng
chng khon. Gi tr hin ti thun ca d n nh vy s l:
NPV = 100 + 108,8/1,1 = -1,1
Nhc nh: nu gi s dng vn c c tnh t cc sut sinh li hay cc mc b p ri ro
trong qu kh, hy s dng trung bnh s hc, khng dng sut sinh li hng nm kp.
S dng cc S kin Qu kh nh gi Chi ph S dng Vn hm nay

Gi s c mt d n u t m bn bit xin ng hi ti sao c cng ri ro nh ch s tng
hp Standard and Poor. Chng ta s ni l n c cng mc ri ro vi tp danh mc u t th
trng (market portfolio), mc d iu ny c v khng cht ch, v ch s tng hp ny khng
bao gm tt c cc chng khon ri ro. Bn s s dng sut sinh li no chit khu ngn lu
d kin ca d n ny?
R rng l bn nn dng sut sinh li k vng hin ti ca tp danh mc u t th trng;
ngha l sut sinh li m nh u t phi b khi u t vo d n c ngh. Chng ta hy gi
sut sinh li th trng ny l rm. Mt cch c tnh rm l gi nh rng tng lai s ging nh
qu kh v nh u t hm nay cng k vng nhn c mt mc li bnh thng ging nh
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

sut sinh li c cho trong bng 7-1. Trong trng hp ny, bn s cho rm bng 12,2%, bng
gi tr trung bnh ca sut sinh li th trng trong qu kh.
Tht khng may, y khng phi l cch lm: rm khng th n nh theo thi gian. Hy nh
rng rm l tng hp ca mc sinh li khng ri ro rf v mc b p ri ro. Chng ta bit rng rf
thay i. V d khi chng ti hon thnh chng ny vo u nm 1995, sut sinh li ca tri
phiu Kho bc l 6%, nhiu hn 2% so vi mc sinh li trung bnh hng nm ca tri phiu Kho
bc (3,7%).
iu g s xy ra nu nh bn c yu cu c tnh rm cho nm 1995? Bn c ni rng n
bng 12,2% khng? Cch ny lm gim mc b p ri ro i 2,2%. Mt cch lm c ngha
hn l ly sut sinh li hin ti ca tri phiu Kho bc cng vi 8,4%, mc b p ri ro trung
bnh c cho trong bng 7.1. Vi sut sinh li 6% cho tri phiu Kho bc, chng ta c
rm (1995)
= rf(1995) + mc b p ri ro bnh thng
= 0,06 + 0,084 = 0,144 hay 14,4%
Hnh 7.3 Sut thu li th trng k vng c c tnh bng cng thc DCF vi tc pht trin khng i.
Khong cch gia cc c tnh ny v sut thu li tri phiu kho bc thay i, nhng n lun n nh vi mc b
p ri ro trung bnh hng nm l 8,4% c cho trong bng 7.1. [Ngun: R.S. Harris v F.C. marston, Estimating
Shareholder risk Premia Using Analysts Growth Forecast, Financial Management, 21:63-70 (Summer, 1972).]
Gi thit quan trng y l c mt mc b p ri ro bnh thng v n nh i vi tp

danh mc u t th trng, v vy mc b p ri ro trong tng lai c th tnh bng mc b
p ri ro trung bnh ca qu kh. C ngi s tranh ci vi gi thit ny, nhng t nht, n cng
c tnh c rm mt cch c ngha.
Ngay c vi gn 70 nm s liu, chng ta cng khng th c tnh mc b p ri ro ca th
trng mt cch chnh xc; cng nh chng ta cng khng chc rng cc nh u t hm nay
ang i mt mc b p ri ro ging nh trong 70 nm qua. V vy, tt nht, chng ta hy kim
tra cc con s t nht theo cng mt s s. Robert Harris v Felicia Marston s dng cng
thc DCF tng trng u (constant growth DCF) c tnh sut sinh li trung bnh m cc
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

nh phn tch chng khon k vng cho mt mu ln cc c phiu thng 5. Kt qu tm c

ca h c tng kt trong hnh 7.3. Trong khong t nm 1982 n nm 1991, cc nh phn
tch c v nh d bo sut sinh li th trng cao hn sut sinh li ca tri phiu Kho bc
khong 81/2%.
7.2 O LNG RI RO CA DANH MC U T
By gi bn c mt cp gi tr so snh. Bn bit rng sut chit khu cho cc d n an ton, v
bn cng bit sut chit khu cho cc d n c ri ro trung bnh. Nhng bn cha bit lm th
no c tnh sut chit khu cho cc loi ti sn m n khng trng vi cc trng hp c
bit. lm c iu ny, bn phi bit (1) cch o lng ri ro v (2) mi quan h gia ri ro
v mc b p ri ro yu cu.
Hnh 7.4 cho thy 69 mc sinh li hng nm c tnh bi Ibbotson Associates cho ch s
tng hp Standard & Poor. Cc sut sinh li hng hng nm dao ng tng i ln. Sut sinh
li hng nm cao nht l 54,0% trong nm 1933 mt s phc hi mt phn t cuc sp th
trng chng khon vo nm 1929 1932. Tuy nhin, 4 nm l trn 25%, t nht l vo
nm 1931 sut sinh li l -43,3%.
Hnh 7.4 Th trng chng khon em li li nhun nhng cng rt bin ng (Ngun: Ibbotson Associates, Inc.,
1995 Yearbook).
Mt cch khc trnh by s liu l dng biu phn phi tn sut. Hnh 7.5 trnh by s
bin thin ca sut sinh li hng nm vi bin thin kh rng.
5
Hy xem Harris v F.C Marston, Estimating Shareholder risk Premia Using Analysts Growth Forecast, Financial
Management, 21:63-70 (Summer, 1972). Harris v Marston dng d bo li nhun 5 nm c n bn rng ri bi I/B/E/S.
Hy xem phn 4-3.
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
Phng sai v lch chun

Cc i lng thng k chun o s bin thin l phng sai v lch chun. Phng sai
ca sut sinh li th trng l lch chun bnh phng k vng so vi sut sinh li k vng.
Ni cch khc:
Phng sai ( r~m ) = gi tr k vng ca ( r~m rm ) 2
vi r~m l sut sinh li tht s v rm l sut sinh li k vng.6 lch chun, ni mt cch n
gin l cn bc hai ca phng sai:
lch chun ca r~m =
phngsai( r~m )
lch chun thng c k hiu l v phng sai l 2.
Hnh 7.5 th tn sut ca sut sinh li hng nm ca th trng chng khon Hoa K, 1926 1988, cho thy s
dao ng ln trong sut sinh li ca c phiu thng (Ngun: Ibbotson Associates, Inc., 1995 Yearbook.)
V d: y l mt v d n gin trnh by cch tnh phng sai v lch chun. Gi s bn

c ngh chi tr chi sau. Bn bt u bng cch u t 100$. Sau , ngi ta tung hai
ng tin. C mi mt hnh nga ln, bn s tng s tin ban u ln 20% v c mi mt ch
nga ln, bn s b mt 10% s tin ban u. R rng c bn kt qu c th xy ra v u c xc
sut bng nhau:
Mt im k thut na: khi phng sai c c tnh t mt mu cc sut thu li quan st c. Chng ta cng thm v
lch bnh phng v chia cho N 1, vi N l s quan st. Chng ta chia cho N 1 hn l N sa cha ci gi l mt mt bc
t do. Cng thc l:
var iance( r~m )

Vi
r~m : sut thu li th trng ti thi im t

rm: trung bnh ca cc gi tr r~m
1 N ~
(rm rm ) 2
N 1 t 1
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Hnh + Hnh:
Hnh + Ch:
Ch + Hnh:
Ch + Ch:

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
Bn thng 40%.
Bn thng 10%.
Bn thng 10%.
Bn thua 20%.
C xc sut 1/4 hay 0,25 bn s thng 40%; xc sut 2/4 hay 0,5 bn s thng 10% v xc
sut 1/4 hay 0,25 bn s thua 20%. V vy, sut sinh li k vng ca tr chi ny l trung bnh c
trng s ca cc kt qu c th xy ra:
BNG 7.2
Tr chi nm ng tin: tnh ton phng sai v lch chun
(1)
Sut sinh li
( r~ ), tnh
theo %
+ 40
+ 10
-20
(2)
(3)
lch khi
Bnh phng
sut sinh li k lch [(r~ r ) 2 ]
vng ( r~ - r)
+ 30
900
0
0
- 30
900
Phng sai = gi tr k vng ca
lch chun =
(4)
Xc sut
0,25
0,50
0,25
[(r~ r ) 2 ] =
phngsai =
450 =
(5)
Xc xut x bnh
phng lch
225
0
225
450
21
Sut sinh li k vng = (0,25 x 40) + (0,5 x 10) + (0,25 x (-20)) = + 10%
Bng 7.2 cho thy phng sai ca sut sinh li (%) l 450. lch chun bng cn bc hai
ca 450, hay bng 21. S ny c cng n v nh sut sinh li, v vy ta c th ni l bin
thin ca tr chi l 21%.
Mt cch khc nh ngha khng chc chn l ni nhiu n cc vic c th xy ra hn
l s xy ra. Ri ro ca mt ti sn c th c din t hon ton bng cch nh chng ta lm
cho tr chi tung ng tin, l vit ra tt c kt qu c th xy ra v xc sut ca chng. i
vi cc ti sn tht th y l mt vic lm nng n v khng th thc hin. V vy chng ta s
dng phng sai hay lch chun tng kt s bin thin ca cc kt qu c th c.7
Cc i lng ny l ch s t nhin ca ri ro.8 Nu kt qu ca tr chi l chc chn, th
lch chun l 0. lch chun thc t lun dng v chng ta khng bit iu g s xy ra.
Hoc chng ta hy ngh n tr chi th hai, ging nh tr chi u nhng mi mt hnh
thng 35% v mi mt ch thua 25%. Mt ln na, ta c 4 kt qu c xc sut xy ra bng nhau.
Hnh + Hnh:
Bn thng 70%.
S dng i lng no trong hai i lng ny l do vn tin li. V lch chun c cng n v vi sut thu li, nn dng
lch chun th tin hn. Tuy nhin, khi ta ni v t l ri ro theo mt yu t no , dng phng sai s t b hiu lm hn.
8
Nh chng ti gii thch trong chng 8, lch chun v phng sai l cc thng s o chnh xc ri ro nu sut thu li tun
theo phn phi chun.
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Hnh + Ch:
Ch + Hnh:
Ch + Ch:
Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Bn thng 10%.
Bn thng 10%.
Bn thua 50%.
i vi tr chi ny, sut sinh li k vng l 10%, ging nh tr chi u. Nhng lch
chun ca n gp i tr chi u tin, 42% so vi 21%. Theo i lng ny th tr chi th hai
c ri ro gp i tr chi th nht.
o lng bin thin

Theo nguyn tc, bn c th c tnh bin thin ca bt k danh mc u t c phiu hay tri
phiu theo th tc nh va c m t. Bn c th xc nh cc kt qu c th xy ra, gn cho
mi kt qu mt xc sut, v nghin ngm cc tnh ton. Nhng cc xc sut n t u? Bn
khng th tm chng trn cc bo ch; cc bo dng nh trnh cc pht biu xc nh v tng
lai cho cc chng khon. Chng ta tng thy cc ta bi nh Gi tri phiu c th tng nhanh
theo hng ny hoc hng kia. Cc nh mi gii chng khon cng hon ton ging nh vy.
Cc nh mi gii chng khon ca bn cng c th tr li cc cu hi ca bn v cc kt qu th
trng c th xy ra vi cu pht biu nh th ny:
Th trng dng nh ang tri qua giai on cng c li. Trong trung hn, chng ta c th
chng kin mt s hi phc, do s hi phc ca nn kinh t cn tip tc pht trin. Th trng c
th tng trng n 20% cho nm k tip, c l nhiu hn na nu lm pht ch mc trung
bnh. Mt khc,
Li sm truyn n th Delphi cho bit kt qu, nhng li khng cho bit xc sut kt
qu xy ra.
Phn ln cc nh phn tch ti chnh bt u bng cch quan st s bin thin trong qu kh.
D nhin, s khng c ri ro khi nhn v qu kh, tuy nhin ta c th gi nh mt cch hp l
rng nu cc tp danh mc u t vi bin thin ln trong qu kh th cng c ngha l kh c
kh nng d on c kt qu hot ng ca n trong tng lai.
Cc lch chun v phng sai hng nm c quan st cho 5 tp danh mc u t trong
thi k 1926 - 1994 nh sau:9
Tp danh mc u t
Tn phiu Kho bc
Tri phiu Chnh ph
Tri phiu cng ty
C phiu thng (S&P 500)
C phiu thng cng ty nh
lch chun ()
3,3
8,7
8,3
20,2
34,3
Phng sai (2)

10,7
75,5
69,7
408,0
1177,4
Ibbotson Associates, Inc., 1995 Yearbook. Khi tho lun v ri ro ca tri phiu, hy cn thn xc nh khong thi gian v
bn ang ni v gi tr thc hay gi tr danh ngha. Sut thu li danh ngha ca cng tri di hn thng chc chn i vi nh
u t gi chng n thi gian o hn; hay ni cch khc, n khng c ri ro nu bn b qua lm pht. Hn na chnh ph c
th lun lun in tin tr n. Tuy nhin, sut thu li tht s ca tri phiu kho bc th khng chc chn v khng ai bit mi
USD trong tng lai s mua c bao nhiu.
Sut sinh li ca tri phiu c bo co bi Ibbotson Associates c tnh hng nm. Sut sinh li phn nh s thay i t
nm ny sang nm khc trong gi tri phiu cng nh li tc thu c. Sut sinh li 1 nm ca tri phiu di hn th ri ro i
vi c cc gi tr thc cng nh danh ngha.
10
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Nh chng ta k vng, tri phiu Kho bc l loi chng khon t bin ng nht, v chng
khon ca cc cng ty nh l loi bin ng nhiu nht. Tri phiu nh nc v cng ty l loi
nm khong gia.10
Bn c th thy thch th nu so snh tr chi tung ng tin vi th trng chng khon nh
l cc hnh thc u t c th hon i cho nhau. Th trng chng khon to ra sut sinh li
trung bnh hng nm khong 12,2% vi lch chun l 20,2%. Tr chi cho ta cc con s
tng ng l10% v 21% - sut sinh li hi thp hn v gn cng lch chun. Cc ngi bn
c bc ca bn c th nhn ra mt hnh nh n gin ca th trng chng khon.
D nhin, khng c l do no lm cho ta phi tin rng bin thin ca th trng s gi
nguyn nh 70 nm qua. V d, r rng l by gi bin thin t hn nhiu so vi thi k i
khng hong vo thp nin 1930. y l lch chun ca sut sinh li ca ch s S&P trong
cc thi k k tip bt u t nm 1926:
Thi k
1926 1939
1940 1949
1950 1959
1960 1969
1970 1979
1980 1994
lch chun ca th trng (m)

33,6
15,8
11,8
12,1
15,9
15,2
Cc con s ny khng ng h cho n tng ph bin v s bin ng khng n nh mt

cch c bit ca gi c phiu trong thp nin 80 v u thp nin 90. Nhng nm ny c gi tr
thp hn mc trung bnh v mt bin ng.
Tuy nhin, c mt s thi k ngn hn m bin ng cc k cao. Trong ngy th hai
en ti, 19 thng 10 nm 1987, ch s th trng gim khong 23% trong mt ngy duy nht.
lch chun ca ch s trong tun l ca ngy th hai en ti tng ng khong 89%/nm. May
mn l bin ng gim tr li mc bnh thng trong vng vi tun sau cuc sp .
a dng ho lm gim ri ro nh th no
Chng ta c th tnh ton kh tt cc i lng th hin s bin ng ca cc chng khon ring
bit v cc tp danh mc u t chng khon. D nhin, cc mc bin ng trong khong 69 nm
qua t hp dn i vi mt cng ty c th hn l i vi tp danh mc u t th trng hin
nay him c cng ty no gp ri ro ging nh ri ro kinh doanh m h gp trong thi k 1926.
Bng 7-3 trnh by lch chun c tnh cho 10 c phiu thng ca cc cng ty ni ting
trong thi k 5 nm gn y.11 Cc lch chun ny c cao i vi bn khng? Chng cao.
10
Bn c th lu rng tri phiu cng ty ch ng trn cng tri di hn tnh theo bin ng thp. Bn khng nn qu kch
ng v iu ny. Vn l kh tm c hai tp tri phiu ging nhau trn mi mt, v d, phn ln tri phiu cng ty u c
iu khon mua li (tc l cng ty c quyn mua li tri phiu vi gi tr b mt ca n). Cng tri khng c iu khon ny. Li
tc tr cho tri phiu cng ty cng cao hn. V th, nh u t vo tri phiu cng ty c th nhn tin li sm hn. Nh chng ta
s thy chng 25, iu ny s lm gim bin ng ca tri phiu.
11
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Hy nh rng lch chun ca tp danh mc u t th trng l khong 20% trong sut thi
k 1926 1994 v t hn trong nhng nm sau. Trong cc chng khon ring bit ca chng ta,
ch c Exxon l c lch chun nh hn 20% mt cch ng k, mc d cng c hai chng
khon khc nm di ngng ny. Phn ln cc c phiu bin ng nhiu hn ng k so vi tp
danh mc u t th trng; ch c mt vi c phiu bin ng t hn.
iu ny lm dy ln mt cu hi: tp danh mc u t th trng c to thnh t cc
chng khon ring bit, vy ti sao bin ng ca n khng phn nh c bin ng
trung bnh ca tng thnh phn ca n? Cu tr li l s a dng ha lm gim bin ng.
Ngay c mt s a dng ha t i cng c th lm gim ng k s bin ng. Gi s bn tnh
ton v so snh cc lch chun ca mt tp danh mc u t c chn ngu nhin, tp danh
mc u t c hai chng khon, tp danh mc u t c nm chng khon, v.v Bn c th
thy trong hnh 7.6 rng s a dng ha c th lm gim bin ng ca sut sinh li gn mt
na. Nhng bn c th nhn c phn ln li ch ny t mt s kh t chng khon. S ci
thin ny chm li khi s lng c phiu c tng ln trn khong 20 hay 30 c phiu.
BNG 7.3
lch chun i vi mt s c phiu thng, 1989 1924 (%/nm)
C phiu
AT&T
Biogen
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Coca Cola
Compaq
lch chun
21,4
51,5
18,6
21,6
43,5
C phiu
Exxon
Ford Motor
General Electric
McDonalds
Microsoft
lch chun
12,1
28,0
19,6
21,7
53,6
S a dng ha c hiu lc v gi ca cc c phiu khc nhau khng dao ng ng thi vi

nhau. Cc nh thng k cng ch ra c iu tng t nh vy khi h thy s thay i ca gi
c phiu t khi c tng quan hon ton vi nhau. V d, hy quan st hnh 7.7. Bn c th thy
u t vo hoc l Coca Cola hoc l Compaq th rt ri ro. Nhng nhiu khi mt s ln gi ca
chng khon cng ty ny s b tr cho vic xung gi ca chng khon cng ty kia 12. V vy
chng ta c c hi gim ri ro bng cch a dng ha. Hnh 7.7 cho thy rng nu bn chia
ngun vn ca bn u gia hai chng khon ny th bin ng ca tp danh mc u t ca
bn s gim ng k so vi bin thin trung bnh ca hai chng khon ny. 13
11
Cc c tnh ny c suy ra t sut thu li hng thng. Cc quan st trong 5 nm th khng c tnh bin ng.
Chng ti chuyn thnh bin ng hng thng sang bin ng hng nm bng cc nhn cho 12 ngha l, phng sai ca
sut thu li hng thng l 1/12 ca phng sai hng nm. Bn gi mt chng khon cng lu th bn s cng chu nhiu ri ro.
Quy c chuyn i ny gi thit l sut thu li ca cc thng lin tip nhau c lp vi nhau v mt thng k. Thc ra, y
l mt gi thit tt nh chng ta s thy trong chng 13.
V phng sai t l xp x vi di thi gian m chng khon c tnh, lch chun s t l vi cn bc hai ca khong
thi gian.
12
Trong sut thi k ny, tng quan gia sut thu li ca hai c phiu l 0,24.
13
Trong nm nm t 1989 n 1994, lch chun ca Coca Cola v Compaq tng ng l 21,6 v 43,5. lch
chun ca tp danh mc u t vi mt na u t vo mi loi c phiu l 26,5%.
12
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
ochun
lech tp
chuan
lch
danh mc u t
tap danh muc au t
10
S
lng
chngchng
khon khoan
So
lng
Hnh 7.6 a dng ha gim ri ro ( lch chun) nhanh lc u, sau chm hn.
Ri ro c th loi tr bng cch a dng ha c gi l ri ro ring14 (unique risk). C

ngha l cc mi him ha ring bit i vi cng ty th nh hng c bit ti cng ty , v c
th ti cc i th cnh tranh trc tip ca h. Nhng cng c mt s ri ro m bn khng th
trnh d cho bn c c gng a dng ha nhiu ti u i na. Ri ro ny gi l ri ro th
trng15 (market risk). Ri ro th trng bt ngun t cc mi him ha t ton nn kinh t v
n e da n tt c cc doanh nghip. l l do m ti sao cc chng khon c khuynh hng
dao ng cng hng. V cng l l do m ti sao cc nh u t thng phi chu s khng
chc chn ca th trng, bt chp s lng c phiu m h ang nm gi.
14
15
Ri ro ring cn gi l ri ro khng h thng, ri ro cn li, ri ro c trng hay ri ro c th a dng ha.

Ri ro th trng c th c gi l ri ro h thng hay ri ro khng th a dng ha.
13
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Hnh 7.7 bin ng ca mt tp danh mc u t vi t l nm gi bng nhau gia Coca-Cola v Compaq s c

bin ng trung bnh thp hn bin ng ca tng chng khon ring bit. Cc sut sinh li ny thu c trong thi k
t thng 6 nm 1989 n thng 6 nm 1994.
14
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
lch chun ca
danh mc ut t
S lng chng khon
Hnh 7.8 a dng ha s loi tr ri ro ring. Nhng c mt s ri ro m a dng ha khng th loi b c. l

ri ro th trng.
Trong hnh 7.8, chng ta chia ri ro ra thnh hai phn ri ro ring v ri ro th trng.
Nu bn ch c mt c phiu n l, ri ro ring s rt quan trng; nhng mt khi bn c mt tp
danh mc u t khong 20 c phiu hay hn na th s a dng ha thc hin vai tr ca n.
i vi mt tp danh mc u t c a dng ha kh tt th ch c ri ro th trng l ng k.
V vy, ngun khng chc chn ch yu cho mt nh u t a dng ha l th trng s tng
hay gim v t nh hng n tp danh mc u t.
7.3 TNH TON RI RO TP DANH MC U T
Chng ti cho bn mt khi nim trc gic v vic a dng ha lm gim ri ro, nhng
hiu y nh hng ca a dng ha, bn cn phi hiu ri ro ca mt tp danh mc u t
ph thuc vo ri ro ca tng chng khon ring bit nh th no.
C phiu 1
C phiu 2
C phiu 1
x12 12
x1 x2 12 x1 x2 12 1 2
C phiu 2
x1 x2 12 x1 x2 12 1 2
x22 22
Hnh 7.9 Phng sai ca mt tp danh mc u t gm hai c phiu l tng ca bn hp. x i: t l u t vo c

phiu i; 2i: phng sai ca sut thu li ca c phiu i; ij: ng phng sai gia sut thu li ca hai c phiu i v j
(ijij); ij: h s tng quan gia sut thu li ca hai c phiu i v j.
Gi s rng 60% tp danh mc u t ca bn c u t vo Bristol Myers Squibb v phn

cn li vo Ford Motor. Bn hy vng rng trong nm ti Bristol Myers s cho sut sinh li l
15
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

15% v Ford l 21%. K vng ca sut sinh li ca tp danh mc u t ca bn l trung bnh c

trng s ca k vng ca tng chng khon ring bit:16
K vng ca sut sinh li ca tp danh mc u t
= (0,60 x 15) + (0,40 x 21) = 17,4%
Vic tnh ton sut sinh li k vng ca tp danh mc u t th d. Phn kh khn l tnh
ton ri ro ca tp danh mc u t ca bn. Trong qu kh, lch chun ca Bristol Myers
vo khong 18,6% v ca Ford vo khong 28,0%. Bn tin rng cc con s ny l mt ch s
thch hp o dao ng ca cc kt qu tng lai. Khuynh hng ban u ca bn l c th gi
nh rng lch chun ca tp danh mc u t bng trung bnh trng s ca cc lch chun
ca cc chng khon ring bit, ngha l (0,60 x 18,6) + (0,40 x 28,0) = 22,4%. iu ny ch
ng nu gi ca hai c phiu ny dao ng c lp nhau hon ton. Trong nhng trng hp
khc, s a dng ha s lm gim ri ro xung di con s ny.
Th tc tnh ton chnh xc ri ro ca tp danh mc u t 2 c phiu c cho trong hnh 79. Bn cn in vo 4 hp. in vo hp trn bn tri, bn ly trng s phng sai ca chng
khon 1 (12) vi bnh phng phn t l u t vo n (x12). Tng t nh vy, in vo hp
di bn phi, bn phi nhn phng sai ca sut sinh li trn chng khon 2 (22) vi bnh
phng phn t l u t vo chng khon 2 (x22).
Vic in vo cc hp trn ng cho ny ph thuc vo phng sai ca c phiu 1 v 2;
Vic in vo hai hp cn li ph thuc vo ng phng sai ca chng. Nh bn c th on,
ng phng sai l i lng ch mc m hai c phiu dao ng theo nhau. ng phng sai
c th din t bng tch ca h s tng quan 12 v hai lch chun:17
H s ng phng sai gia c phiu 1 v 2 = 12 = 1212
Hu ht cc chng khon u c khuynh hng dao ng cng vi nhau. Trong trng hp
ny, h s tng quan 12 s dng v v vy h s ng phng sai 12 s dng. Nu trin
vng ca hai chng khon hon ton khng lin quan vi nhau th c h s tng quan v ng
phng sai s bng 0; v nu cc chng khon c khuynh hng dao ng ngc chiu nhau th
h s tng quan v h s ng phng sai s l s m. V bn ly trng s cc phng sai
theo bnh phng ca t l u t, v vy bn cng phi ly trng s ca cc ng phng sai
theo tch s ca hai t l x1 v x2.
Khi bn in vo bn hp, bn ch vic n gin cng cc s vo c phng sai ca
tp danh mc u t:
16
Hy kim tra iu ny. Gi s bn u t 60 $ vo Bristol-Myers v 40$ vo Ford. Sut thu li k vng theo la ca c phiu
Bristol Myers l 0,15 (60) = 9$ v ca Ford l 0,21 (40) = 8,4$. Sut thu li k vng theo la ca tp danh mc u t ca bn
l 9 = 8,4 = 17,4 $. Sut thu li ca tp danh mc u t l 17,4 / 100 = 17,4%.
17
Mt cch khc tm ng phng sai nh sau:
~ r ) x(r~ r )
ng phng sai gia hai c phiu 1 v 2 = 12 = gi tr k vng ca ( r
1
1
2
2
Lu rng ng phng sai ca mt chng khon vi chnh n th chnh l phng sai ca chng khon :
11= gi tr k vng ca ( r~1 r1 ) x( r~1 r1 )
= gi tr k vng ca
( r~1 r1 ) 2 = phng sai ca chng khon 1
16
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Phng sai ca tp danh mc u t = x1212 + x2222 + 2(x1x21212)

D nhin, lch chun ca tp danh mc u t bng cn bc hai ca phng sai.
By gi bn c th th thay s vo cho Bristol Myers v Ford Motor. Chng ta ni t
trc l nu hai chng khon tng quan vi nhau hon ho, lch chun ca tp danh mc
u t s nm khong 40% ca khong lch chun gia hai chng khon. Chng ta hy kim
tra iu ny bng cch in vo cc hp vi 12 = +1.
Bristol Myers
Ford Motor
x1212 = (0,60)2 x (18,6)2
Bristol
Myers
Ford Motor
x1x21212 = 0,60 x 0,40 x 1 x

18,6 x 28,0
x1x21212 = 0,60 x 0,40 x 1 x

18,6 x 28,0
x2222 = (0,40)2 x (28,0)2
Phng sai ca tp danh mc u t ca bn l tng ca cc s nhp vo cc hp ny:

= (0,602 x 18,62) + (0,402 x 28,02)
+ 2 (0,60 x 0,40 x 1 x 18,6 x 28,0)
= 500
Phng sai ca tp danh mc u t
lch chun l
500 = 22,4% hay 40% khong cch gia 18,6 v 28,0.
Bristol Myers v Ford khng hon ton dch chuyn nh nhau. Nu kinh nghim qu kh l
ng, th h s tng quan gia 2 chng khon ny khong 0,2. Nu chng ta lm tng t vi
12 = +0,2 , chng ta s tm thy:
= (0,602 x 18,62) + (0,402 x 28,02)

+ 2 (0,60 x 0,40 x 0,2 x 18,6 x 28,0)
= 300
lch chun l 300 = 17,3%. Ri ro by gi t hn 40% khong cch gia 18,6 v 28,0
thc t, n nh hn l u t ring vo Bristol-Myers.
Li ch ln nht ca vic a dng ha s xy ra khi hai chng khon tng quan nghch bin.
Nhng tht khng may l iu ny hu nh khng bao gi xy ra vi cc chng khon thc t,
nhng hy xem y l v d, chng ta hy gi s iu ny cho Bristol Myers v Ford. V vi gi
nh khng thc t, chng ta hy thc hin ht bi tp ny v gi s tng quan nghch bin hon
ho (12 = -1). Trong trng hp ny:
= (0,602 x 18,62) + (0,402 x 28,02)

+ 2 (0,60 x 0,40 x (-1) x 18,6 x 28,0)
=0
17
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Khi c s tng quan nghch bin hon ho, ta lun c mt chin lc (i din bng mt tp
hp cc trng s trong tp danh mc u t) m n s gip trit tiu ri ro hon ton. 18 Tht t l
khng bao gi c tng quan m hon ho xy ra gia cc c phiu thng.
Cng thc tng qut tnh ri ro ca tp danh mc u t

Phng php tnh ri ro ca tp danh mc u t c th d dng pht trin cho tp danh
mc u t c ba chng khon hay nhiu hn. Chng ta ch vic in vo nhiu hp hn. Mi
hp theo ng cho xung cc hp in m trong hnh 7-10 cha cc phng sai c ly
trng s vi bnh phng ca t l u t. Mi hp khc s cha h s ng phng sai gia cp
chng khon nhn vi tch ca trng s u t.19
Bn c nhn thy trong hnh 7.10 tm quan trng ca cc h s ng phng sai khi
chng ta thm nhiu chng khon vo tp danh mc u t nh th no khng? Khi ch c hai
chng khon, s hp phng sai bng vi s hp cha ng phng sai. Khi c nhiu chng
khon hn, s lng hp cha ng phng sai ln hn s phng sai nhiu. V vy, dao
ng ca mt tp danh mc u t a dng ha tt s phn nh ch yu cc ng phng sai.
Gii hn ca a dng ha
Gi s chng ta xem xt mt tp danh mc u t trong ta u t u vo mi chng
khon trong n chng khon. Phn t l u t trong mi chng khon by gi l 1/N. V vy mi
hp cha phng sai ta c (1/N)2 nhn vi phng sai, v trong mi hp ng phng sai chng
ta c (1/N)2 nhn vi ng phng sai. C N hp phng sai v N2 N hp ng phng sai.V
vy,
= N(1/N)2 x phng sai trung bnh + (N2 N) (1/N)2 x ng phng sai trung bnh
= 1/N phng sai trung bnh + ( 1 1/N) ng phng sai trung bnh
Lu rng khi N tng, phng sai ca tp danh mc u t dn tin n trung bnh ca ng
phng sai. Nu trung bnh ca ng phng sai bng 0, chng ta c th loi tr tt c ri ro
bng cch nm gi mt s lng ln cc c phiu. Tht khng may, cc c phiu thng li
dao ng cng vi nhau, ch khng c lp. V vy hu ht cc c phiu m nh u t c th
mua c u lin quan vi nhau trong mt mng li cc ng phng sai dng v n lm
gim li ch ca vic a dng ha. By gi chng ta c th hiu ngha chnh xc ca ri ro th
trng c nu ra trong hnh 7-8. chnh l ng phng sai trung bnh v l phn ct li
ca ri ro cn li sau khi a dng ha thc hin xong nhim v ca n.
18
V lch chun ca Ford cao gp 1,5 ln ca Bristol-Myers, bn cn phi u t vo Bristol-Myers nhiu hn 1,5 ln loi
tr ri ro ca tp danh mc u t hai c phiu ny.
19
Cng thc tng ng khi cng ht tt c cc hp l:
N
Phng sai ca tp danh mc u t =
x x
i
ij
i 1 j 1
Lu rng khi i = j, ij chnh l phng sai ca c phiu i.
18
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
Cphie
phiu
Co
u
1
1
2
C
phieu
Co phiu
3
4
5
Hnh 7.10 tnh phng sai ca tp danh mc u t c N chng khon, chng ta phi cng cc d liu trong ma
trn nh th ny. Cc hp ng cho cha phng sai xi2i2 v cc hp nm ngoi ng cho cha ng phng
sai x1x21212.
7.4 CHNG KHON RING BIT NH HNG N RI RO CA DANH MC

U T NH TH NO
Chng ti trnh by t phn trc mt vi s liu v s bin ng ca 10 chng khon ring
bit. Biogen c lch chun cao nht v Exxon thp nht. Nu bn ch nm c phn ca Biogen
th bin ng ca sut sinh li ca bn s cao hn 4 ln so vi nu bn ch nm gi c phn ca
Exxon. Nhng y khng phi l iu th v. Nhng nh u t khn ngoan khng t tt c
trng ca h vo mt r: h s gim ri ro bng cch a dng ha. V vy, h quan tm n hiu
ng ca tng chng khon ln ri ro ca tp danh mc u t ca h.
iu ny mang chng ta n mt trong cc ch chnh ca chng ny: ri ro ca mt tp
danh mc u t c a dng ha cao ph thuc vo ri ro th trng ca cc c phiu trong
tp danh mc u t. Hy xm pht biu ny vo trn bn nu bn khng th nh n bng cch
khc. l kin quan trng nht ca cun sch ny.
19
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Ri ro th trng c o bng h s Beta

Nu bn mun bit s ng gp ca mt chng khon ring bit vo ri ro ca mt tp danh mc
u t c a dng ha tt, s chng c ch g nu bn ch ngh n ri ro ca chng khon
nu c nm gi mt mnh bn cn phi o ri ro th trng ca n, v iu ny s ch ra
cch o nhy ca n vi dao ng ca th trng. H s nhy ny gi l beta ().
BNG 7.4
H s beta ca mt s c phiu thng c chn lc, 1989 1994
C phiu
AT&T
Biogen
Bristol-Myers Squibb
Coca Cola
Compaq
H s beta
0,92
2,20
0,97
1,12
1,18
C phiu
Exxon
Ford Motor
General Electric
McDonalds
Microsoft
H s beta
0,51
1,12
1,22
1,07
1,23
Chng khon vi beta ln hn 1,0 c xu hng tng dao ng chung ca th trng. Chng
khon vi beta gia 0 v 1,0 c xu hng dao ng cng chiu vi th trng nhng khng nhiu
nh vy. D nhin, th trng l mt tp danh mc u t ca tt c cc chng khon, v vy
chng khon trung bnh ny phi c beta bng 1,0. Bng 7.4 cho bit beta ca 10 chng khon
ni ting m chng ta nu trc y.
Biogen, mt cng ty v cng ngh sinh hc pht trin nhanh, c h s beta bng 2,20 trong
khong 5 nm t gia 1989 n gia 1994. Nu tng lai cng ging nh qu kh, iu ny c
ngha l tnh theo trung bnh, khi th trng tng thm 1%, gi c phiu ca Biogen s tng thm
khong 2,20%. Khi th trng gim bt i 2%, Biogen s gim i 4,40%. V vy ng thng
thch hp biu din cc sut sinh li ca Biogen theo sut sinh li ca th trng c dc l
2,20. Hy xem hnh 7.11.
20
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Li nhua
Li nhun
canccua
co phie
u Biogen
%
phiu
Biogen
%
22
10
Li nhuan cua
Li nhun ca th
th %
trng %
trng
Hnh 7.11. Sut sinh li trn chng khon Biogen thay i trung bnh 2,20% tng ng vi 1% thay i trong sut
sinh li ca th trng. V vy h s beta l 2,20.
D nhin, sut sinh li ca Biogen khng hon ton tng quan vi sut sinh li ca th
trng. Cng ty cng chu ri ro cng ty, v vy sut sinh li thc t s nm xung quanh ng
thch hp trong hnh 7.11. i khi, Biogen i xung khi th trng i ln v ngc li.
Trong tt c chng khon trong bng 7.4, Biogen c nhy vi dao ng th trng rt bt
thng. Exxon l mt cc khc. ng thch hp biu din sut sinh li ca Exxon vi sut sinh
li ca th trng t dc hn nhiu: dc ca n ch c 0,51.
Ti sao h s Beta ca chng khon xc nh c ri ro ca danh mc u

t
Chng ta hy xem li hai im chnh v ri ro ca chng khon v ri ro ca danh mc u t:
Ri ro th trng xem xt n hu ht ri ro ca mt danh mc u t c a dng ha tt.

Beta ca mt chng khon ring bit o nhy ca n vi dao ng th trng.
D dng thy chng ta ang u: trong bi cnh ca danh mc u t, ri ro chng khon

c o bng beta. C l chng ta c th i n kt lun ny, nhng tt hn ht l chng ta nn
gii thch chng. Thc t, chng ti c hai cch gii thch
Cch gii thch 1: Ct li u? Hy nhn li hnh 7.8, n cho thy lch chun ca sut
sinh li ca danh mc u t ph thuc vo s lng chng khon trong danh mc u t nh
th no. Vi nhiu chng khon hn, v v vy danh mc u t c a dng ha tt hn, ri ro
21
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

ca danh mc u t s gim xung cho ti khi cc ri ro ring b loi tr v ch cn li phn ct

li ca ri ro th trng.
Ct li u? n ph thuc vo beta trung bnh ca cc chng khon c la chn.
Gi s chng ta lp ra mt danh mc u t bao gm mt s lng ln cc chng khon v
d nh 500 c chn ra mt cch ngu nhin t ton b th trng. Chng ta s nhn c
g? chnh l th trng hay l mt danh mc u t rt gn vi th trng. H s beta ca
danh mc u t ny s bng 1,0 v h s tng quan vi th trng cng s bng 1,0. Nu
lch chun ca th trng l 20% (c tnh mt cch gn ng cho trung bnh ca n t nm
1926 1994), vy lch chun ca tp danh mc u t ny cng s bng 20%.
Nhng gi s rng chng ta to ra mt danh mc u t t mt nhm ln cc c phiu vi
beta bng 1,5. Mt ln na chng ta cng kt thc bng mt danh mc u t 500 c phiu vi
ri ro ring hu nh khng c mt danh mc u t dao ng gn ging nh dao ng ca th
trng. Tuy nhin, lch chun ca danh mc u t ny s l 30%, gp ri lch chun
ca th trng.20 Mt danh mc u t c a dng ha tt vi h s beta bng 1,5 s lm tng
mi dao ng ca th trng ln 50% v kt thc bng 150% ri ro th trng.
D nhin, chng ta c th lp li cng th nghim vi cc chng khon c h s beta bng 0,5
v kt thc vi danh mc u t c a dng ha c ri ro bng mt na ca th trng. hnh
7-12a, b, v c s biu din ba trng hp ny.
im tng qut l: ri ro ca mt danh mc u t c a dng ha cao s t l vi h s
beta ca danh mc u t, h s beta ny bng trung bnh ca cc beta ca tng chng khon
trong danh mc u t. iu ny cho bn bit ri ro ca danh mc u t b nh hng bi cc
h s beta chng khon nh th no.
Cch gii thch 2: H s beta v ng phng sai. Mt nh thng k s nh ngha beta ca
chng khon i nh sau:
im
m2
Vi im l ng phng sai gia sut sinh li ca chng khon i v sut sinh li ca th

trng v m2 l phng sai ca sut sinh li th trng.
R rng l t s ca ng phng sai vi phng sai s o c mc ng gp ca mt
chng khon vo ri ro ca danh mc u t. Bn c th thy iu ny bng cch nhn li cch
tnh ton ca chng ta cho ri ro ca danh mc u t gm Bristol Myers Squibb v Ford Motor.
Hy nh rng ri ro ca danh mc u t ny l tng ca cc hp sau:
Mt tp danh mc u t gm 500 chng khon vi = 1,5 cng s c mt s ri ro ring v n c th tp trung vo cc

ngnh cng nghip c h s beta cao. lch chun tht s ca n c th cao hn 30%. Nu iu ny lm bn lo lng, hy bnh
tnh; chng ti s ch cho bn trong chng 8 lm th no bn c th to ra mt tp danh mc u t a dng ha hon ton
vi beta 1,5 bng cch vay v u t vo tp danh mc u t th trng.
20
22
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
Bristol Myers
Ford Motor
Bristol Myers
(0,60)2 x (18,6)2
0,60 x 0,40 x 1 x 18,6 x 28,0
Ford Motor
0,60 x 0,40 x 1 x 18,6 x 28,0
(0,40)2 x (28,0)2
Nu chng ta cng mi dng ca cc hp, chng ta s thy ri ro ca tp danh mc u t

n t Bristol Myers v n t Ford nh th no
Chng khon
Bristol Myers
Mc ng gp vo ri ro
0,6 x {[0,6x 18,6 ] + (0,40 x 0,2 x 18,6 x 28,0)}
= 0,6 x 249
0,4 x {(0,40 x 0,2 x 18,6 x 28,0) + [0,4x 28,02]}
= 0,4 x 376
300
2
Ford
Tp danh mc u t
Mc ng gp ca Bristol Myers vo ri ro th trng ph thuc vo quan trng tng

i ca n trong danh mc u t (0,60) v ng phng sai trung bnh ca n vi cc chng
khon trong danh mc u t (249). (Lu rng ng phng sai trung bnh ca Bristol Myers
vi danh mc u t bao gm c ng phng sai vi chnh n, tc l phng sai.) Vy t l ca
ri ro n t c phiu Bristol Myers l:
ng phng sai trung bnh
Gi tr th trng tng i x ____________________________
Phng sai ca danh mc u t
= 0,60 x ____
249 = 0,60 x 0,83 = 0,5
300
23
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

lch
chun
o
lech
chuan
Rui Ri
ro ta
danh
a utt (p) = 20%
roptp
danhmu
mcc u
RuRi
i roroth
tr ng (m) = 20%
th trng
So
lngchng
chng
khoan
S lng
khon
500
(a)
lch
chun
o
lech
chuan
Rui Ri
ro ta
danh
a utt (p) = 30%
ro p
tp
danhmu
mcc u
Ru
i ro
tr ng (m) = 20%
Ri
ro th
th trng
So
lngchng
chng
khoan
S lng
khon
500
(b)
o
chuan
lech
lch chun
Ri
ro th
th trng
Ru
i ro
tr ng (m) = 20%
Rui Ri
ro ta
danh
a utt (p) = 10%
roptp
danhmu
mcc u
So
lngchng
chng
khoan
S lng
khon
500
(c)
24
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Hnh 7.12 (a) Mt tp danh mc u t gm 500 chng khon c chn ngu nhin c th cho = 1 v lch
chun bng vi lch chun th trng trong trng ny l 20%. (b) Mt tp danh mc u t gm 500 chng
khon c xy dng t cc chng khon c trung bnh = 1,5 c lch chun bng 30% - hay 150% ca lch
chun th trng (c) Mt tp danh mc u t gm 500 chng khon c xy dng t cc chng khon c trung
bnh = 0,5 c lch chun bng 10% - hay mt na ca lch chun th trng
Tng t nh vy, mc ng gp ca Ford vo ri ro th trng ph thuc v quan trng

tng i ca n trong tp danh mc u t (0,40) v ng phng sai trung bnh ca n vi cc
c phiu trong tp danh mc u t (376). T l ca ri ro n t c phiu Ford cng bng 0,5:
0,40 x
376
0,40 x1,25 0,50
300
Trong mi trng hp, t l ny ph thuc vo hai s t trng ca mi c phiu trong danh

mc u t (0,60 v 0,40) v mt i lng o nh hng ca c phiu ln ri ro chung ca
danh mc u t (0,83 v 1,25). Cc gi tr sau l h s beta ca Bristol Myers v Ford tng i
vi danh mc u t. Tnh trung bnh, c 1% tng vi gi tr ca tp danh mc u t s gn lin
vi vic tng 0,83% ca gi tr ca Bristol Myers v 1,25% tng gi tr ca Ford.
tnh h s beta tng i ca Bristol Myers i vi tp danh mc u t, chng ta ch cn
n gin ly ng phng sai ca Bristol Myers vi tp danh mc u t v chia cho phng sai
ca tp danh mc u t. Hon ton tng t nh vy, nu chng ta mun tnh h s beta tng
i gia Bristol Myers v tp danh mc u t th trng. Chng ta ch cn tnh ton ng
phng sai ca n vi th trng v chia cho phng sai ca th trng:
H s beta tng i vi
danh mc u t th trng =
(hay n gin hn l beta)
im
ng phng sai vi th trng

=
Phng sai ca th trng
2m
7.5 A DNG HA V VIC CNG DN GI TR

Chng ta nhn thy rng a dng ha s lm gim ri ro, v v vy tr nn c ngha i vi nh
u t. Nhng n c ngha i vi cng ty khng? C phi mt cng ty a dng ha tt s hp
dn vi nh u t hn mt cng ty khng a dng ha khng? Nu qu tht l nh vy, chng
ta s c mt kt qu cc k phin toi. Nu a dng ha l mt mc tiu thch hp ca cng ty,
mi d n s phi c phn tch nh mt khon u t b sung c tim nng i vi tp danh
mc u t v ti sn hin c ca cng ty. Gi tr ca c tp danh mc c a dng ha ny
phi ln hn tng ca tng b phn ca n. V vy, chng ta khng th cng dn cc gi tr hin
ti na.
Khng nghi ng g na, a dng ha l mt iu tt, nhng iu khng c ngha l cng
ty phi thc hin n. Nu nh u t khng c kh nng nm mt s lng ln cc c phiu th
h c th mong mun cng ty a dng ha gim h. Nhng nh u t c th a dng ha.21
Bng nhiu cch khc nhau, h c th thc hin iu ny d dng hn cng ty nhiu. Cc nh
u t c th u t vo mt doanh nghip sn xut thp tun ny v rt vn ra vo tun sau.
21
Mt trong nhng cch n gin nht mt nh u t c nhn c th a dng ha l mua chng khon ca cc qu h tng
m n chuyn nm gi cc tp danh mc u t a dng ha.
25
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Cn cng ty th khng th lm chuyn ny. Chc chn l cc nh u t c nhn s phi tr mt

khon ph mi gii cho vic mua v bn c phiu ca cng ty thp, nhng hy ngh v thi gian
v chi ph m mt cng ty cn phi b ra mua mt cng ty thp hay xy dng mi mt
doanh nghip sn xut thp.
Bn c th quan st thy chng ta ang i n u. Nu nh u t c th a dng ha cc
ti sn ca ring h, h s khng tr thm bt k chi ph no cho cng ty lm chuyn ny. V
nu h c mt s la chn tng i rng ri v cc chng khon, h s khng th tr km hn
ng no v h khng th t u t ring r vo tng nh my. V vy vi nhng t nc nh
Hoa K, ni c cc th trng ti chnh ln v cnh tranh, a dng ha khng lm tng thm hay
gim i gi tr ca cng ty. Gi tr tng cng s bng tng ca tng phn.
iu kt lun ny rt quan trng cho mn ti chnh doanh nghip, v n gii thch c vic
cng dn cc gi tr hin ti. Khi nim cng dn gi tr quan trng n mc m chng ti phi
c mt nh ngha ring cho n. Nu th trng ti chnh thit lp mt gi tr PV(A) cho ti
sn A v PV(B) cho ti sn B, gi tr th trng ca cng ty ch c hai loi ti sn ny l:
PV(AB) = PV(A) + PV(B)
Mt cng ty gm ba loi ti sn A, B v C s tr gi PV(ABC) = PV(A) + PV(B) + PV(C), v
tng t cho mt s lng bt k cc ti sn.
Chng ta c th tin tng vo cc lp lun trc gic v vic cng dn gi tr nh vy. Nhng
khi nim ny l mt ci g rt chung chung v c th c chng minh mt cch cht ch
hn bng nhiu cch khc nhau.22 Khi nim cng dn gi tr dng nh c chp nhn mt
cch rng ri, v hng ngn gim c cng hng ngn cc gi tr hin ti hng ngy m khng
cn suy ngh nhiu v n.
7.6 KT LUN
Vic xem li lch s ca th trng ti chnh chng t rng i vi nh u t, sut sinh li s
thay i ty thuc vo cc ri ro m h phi chu. mt thi cc, cc chng khon rt an ton
nh tri phiu kho bc cho mt sut sinh li trung bnh hng nm khong 3,7% tri qua hn
na th k. Cc chng khon ri ro nht v chng ta xem xt l c phiu thng. Th trng
chng khon cho sut sinh li trung bnh khon 12,2%, mt b p ri ro hn 8% so vi sut
sinh li an ton.
iu ny cho chng ta hai gi tr chun cho chi ph c hi ca vn. Nu chng ta nh gi
mt d n an ton, chng ta s chit khu chng vi li sut khng ri ro hin ti. Nu chng ta
nh gi mt d n c ri ro trung bnh, chng ta s chit khu chng vi sut sinh li k
vng a c phiu trung bnh, m theo cc s liu lch s th nm trong khong 8% chnh lch so
vi sut sinh li khng ri ro. Nhng chng ta vn cn nhiu loi ti sn khng ph hp vi cc
trng hp n gin ny. Trc khi chng ta gii quyt chng, chng ta cn phi bit cch o
c ri ro.
22
Bn c th mun tham kho li ph lc chng 33, m n tho lun v s a dng ha v gia tng gi tr trong bi cnh st
nhp cng ty.
26
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Ri ro c gii thch tt nht l trong bi cnh tp danh mc u t. Phn ln cc nh u

t u khng t tt c cc trng ca h vo mt r: h s a dng ha chng. V vy, ri ro tht
s ca mt chng khon khng th c nh gi bi mt chng khon. Mt phn ri ro ca
sut sinh li ca chng khon s b a dng ha gim xung khi chng khon ny c ghp
chung vi cc loi chng khon khc trong tp danh mc u t.
Ri ro trong u t c ngha l sut sinh li trong tng lai khng th d on c. S bin
ng ca cc kt qu c th c thng c o bng lch chun. lch chun ca tp danh
mc u t th trng c i din bng ch s tng hp Standard & Poor vo khong 20%
nm.
Phn ln cc chng khon ring bit c lch chun cao hn s ny, nhng phn ln
bin thin ny ca chng ch th hin ri ro ring m n c th loi tr c bng cch a dng
ha. a dng ha khng th loi tr ht ri ro th trng. Cc tp danh mc u t a dng ha
tt s chu mc bin ng theo mc chung ca th trng.
Mc ng gp ca mt c phiu vo ri ro ca mt tp danh mc u t a dng ha tt
ph thuc vo mc n nh ca chng khon khi b nh hng ca s suy gim ca th
trng. nhy vi dao ng th trng ny c gi l beta (). H s beta o lng s lng
m nh u t hy vng gi chng khon s thay i khi th trng b thay i 1%. H s beta
trung bnh ca cc chng khon l 1,0. Mt chng khon vi h s beta ln hn 1 thng rt
nhy cm vi dao ng ca th trng, mt chng khon vi h s beta nh hn 1 thng t nhy
cm vi dao ng th trng. V vy, mt tp danh mc u t a dng ha c cc c phiu c h
s beta bng 2, s c ri ro gp i ri ro ca tp danh mc u t a dng ha c h s ri ro
bng 1.
Mt chnh ca chng ny l a dng ha l iu tt cho nh u t c nhn. N khng c
ngha l cng ty nn a dng ha. S a dng ha mc cng ty l iu tha i vi cc nh
u t c th t a dng ha ti sn ca h. Bi v s a dng ha khng nh hng n gi tr
ca cng ty, nn gi tr hin ti c th c cng dn khi ngi ta xem xt mt cch r rng
cc ri ro. Nh vo khi nim cng dn gi tr, nguyn tc gi tr hin ti thun trong vic lp k
hoch ngn sch vn s vn p dng c ngay c trong trng hp c ri ro.
Ti Liu c Thm
Mt bn ghi rt c gi tr v kt qu hot ng ca cc chng khon Hoa k t 1926 l:
Ibbotson Associates, Inc.: Stocks, Bonds, Bills and Inflation, 195 yearbook, Ibbotson Associates;
Chicago, 1995.
Merton tho lun v cc vn gp phi khi o lng sut sinh li trung bnh t cc s liu qu
kh:
R.C. Merton: On Estimating The Expected Return On The Market: An Exploratory
Investigation, Journal Of Financial Economics, 8:323-361 (December 1980).
Phn ln cc bi v u t dng mt hay hai chng phn bit gia ri ro th trng v ri
ro ring v nh hng ca a dng ha ln ri ro. Hy c:
27
Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c

Z. Bodie, A. Kane and A.J. marcus: Investment, 2d ed., Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Homewood, Ill.,
1992.
W.F. Sharpe and G.J. Alexander: Investments, 4th ed., Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs,
N.J., 1989.
Phn tch c in v mc cc c phiu dao ng cng vi nhau:
B.F. King: Market And Industry Factors In Stock Price Behavior, Hournal Of Business,
Security Prices: A Supplement, 39: 179-190 (January 1966).
Mt s nghin cu v cch a dng ha gim lch chun bao gm:
M. Satman: How Many Stocks Make A Diversifiable Portfolio? Journal Of Financial And
Quantitative Analysis, 22:353-364 (September 1987)
Cc chng minh chnh thc v nguyn l gia tng gi tr c th c tm thy trong:
S.C. Myers: Procedures For Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty, Industrial Management
Review, 9:1-20 (Spring 1968)
L.D. Schall: Asset Valuation, Firm Investment And Firm Diversification, Journal Of Business,
45:11-28 (January 1972).
Cu hi kim tra
1. (a) Sut sinh li hng nm trung bnh ca cc c phiu thng Hoa K t 1926 n 1994 l
bao nhiu (mt cch gn ng)?
(b) S khc bit trung bnh gia sut sinh li ny vi sut sinh li trn tri phiu kho bc
ngn hn l bao nhiu?
(c) Sut sinh li trung bnh ca tri phiu kho bc ngn hn tnh bng gi tr thc l bao
nhiu?
(d) lch chun ca sut sinh li trn ch s th trng l bao nhiu?
(e) Sut sinh li ny ln hn hay nh hn sut sinh li ca phn ln cc c phiu ring bit
khc?
2. Hy in vo cc t thiu:
Ri ro thng c o bng phng sai ca sut sinh li hay __________, m n n gin l
cn bc hai ca phng sai. Ngay khi gi c phiu thay i khng hon ton ___________,
ri ro ca mt tp danh mc u t a dng ha th __________ hn ri ro trung bnh ca
tng chng khon ring bit.
Ri ro m c th loi b c bng a dng ha c gi l ri ro _________ . Nhng a
dng ha khng th loi b ht tt c ri ro. Ri ro m n khng th loi b c l ri ro
_____________.
3. Mt tr chi ngu nhin c xc sut v kt qu nh sau: mi ln chi tn 100$, v vy li
nhun rng cho mi ln chi bng kt qu tr i 100$.
Xc sut
0,10
0,50
0,40
Tin li
500
100
0
28
Li nhun rng
$ 400
0
-100
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


Phn tch ti chnh

Bi c
Kt qu bng tin mt k vng v sut sinh li k vng l bao nhiu? Hy tnh phng sai v
lch chun ca sut sinh li ny.
4. Lawrence Interchange, mt nh qun l qu h tng, tnh ta sut sinh li t 1990 n
1994. Sut sinh li trn S&P 500 c cho so snh:
Mr. Interchange
S&P 500
1990
+ 2,0
- 3,2
1991
+ 25,1
+ 30,6
1992
+ 10,0
+ 7,7
1993
- 2,3
- 10,0
1994
- 5,0
+ 1,3
Hy tnh sut sinh li trung bnh v lch chun ca qu h tng Mr. Interchange. ng ta
hot ng tt hn hay xu hn S&P theo cc s liu ny?
29
Bin dch: Tr Nhn


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Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nin kha 2011-2013

Phn tch ti chnh

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

GII THIU V RI RO, LI NHUN V CHI PH

Hai tp danh mc u t tri phiu c xem li hng nm gi thi gian o hn khng i.

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Phn tch ti chnh

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Hnh 7.1 u t 1 USD vo u nm 1926 pht trin nh th no, bng cch gi s ti u t tt c cc c tc v

Cc u t ny c ri ro khc nhau. Tri phiu Kho bc c coi l u t khng ri ro

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Phn tch ti chnh

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Hnh 7.1 cho thy tin ca bn s tng trng nh th no nu bn u t 1$ vo u nm

Gi tr ca tp danh mc u t c v trn thang o logarit. Nu khng, th cc gi tr cui ca hai tp danh mc u t c

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Phn tch ti chnh

Sut sinh li trung bnh

Tri phiu Kho bc ngn hn

Sut sinh li Trung bnh S hc v Sut sinh li hng nm kp

20,6%, v v vy sai s chun l

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Phn tch ti chnh

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

V d: Gi s gi c phiu thng ca Big Oil l 100$. Xc sut gi vo cui nm ca c

S dng cc S kin Qu kh nh gi Chi ph S dng Vn hm nay

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Phn tch ti chnh

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Gi thit quan trng y l c mt mc b p ri ro bnh thng v n nh i vi tp

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Phn tch ti chnh

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

nh phn tch chng khon k vng cho mt mu ln cc c phiu thng 5. Kt qu tm c

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Phn tch ti chnh

Phng sai v lch chun

lch chun thng c k hiu l v phng sai l 2.

V d: y l mt v d n gin trnh by cch tnh phng sai v lch chun. Gi s bn

var iance( r~m )

r~m : sut thu li th trng ti thi im t

Richard A. Brealey, Steward C. Myers

Bin dch: Tr Nhn

Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright

Nguyn l ti chnh cng ty 6th ed.

Phn tch ti chnh