Prompt: Create a report that goes with

your regression project explaining what

you did in detail. Explain what the Rvalue, R2-value, and what the regression
line means.

Brandon Lucio
Algebra 2 Smith

Is the amount of burglaries in Austin increasing due to the population growth?

For my regression project I researched how the population growth in Austin from 19972011 has affected the amount of burglaries each year. I chose to research these variables because
they are relevant to each other. Some people may think that due to the increased population, that
the amount of robberies would go up drastically, but it actually has only had a slight increase
according to my regression line. Many realtors would want to be in the best cities that attract
people and have low amounts of robberies. Realtors look at this type of data to see where they
can sell the most houses and get a lot of buyers.

Amount of Robberies Amount of

Amount of Robberies

Robberies

1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
700
600
500
560

660
760
Population in Austin over the years (in
thousands)

The scatterplot above represents the data I collected and shows the amount of robberies
that occurred versus the increased population (2011 APD Annual Crime Report 8 ). The
Regression Line is the red line going through the data points. The regression line is basically
the average of the points put into a line. Even though the points go up and down and look as if
they have no correlation, they are indeed going up as a whole group. If I had the data points for
up to 2030, you would see the increase clearer. It would look like a lot of data points
everywhere, but you would see an increase going up.

Brandon Lucio
Algebra 2 Smith

After collecting the data, I got a regression equation of f(x) = 0 .001547867x + 121.22.
The r2 value (which is not included in this equation) represents how well you can predict the
future data points. The closer the r2 value is to the number one, means how much more accurate
your prediction will be based off of the regression line. For example, I got 0.7696158922 for my
r2 value. This is like saying my future data points will be about 76.96% accurate based on my
linear regression line. I got 0.8772775457 for my R-value. The R-value is the r2 value squarerooted. So, the square-root of 0.7696158922 (r2) is 0.8772775457 (R-value). To actually predict
a data point, I would have to plug in my x value (the amount of the population) into my
regression equation, f(x) = 0.001547867x + 121.22, and my result would be the y-value or,
amount of burglaries in the population. I will predict the number of robberies with my r 2 value
with the x values (populations) of 650,000; 740,000; and 800,000. For 650,000 as my x value, I
got about 1127 robberies; For 740,000 I got about 1,266 robberies; and lastly for 800,000 I got
1,359 robberies. With the regression and the r 2 value, you can predict almost an infinite amount
of data points since this line/equation is linear.
Realtors, small business owners, and Police departments could use this type of data
because for example, realtors want to live in cities or areas with low robbery rates. If they see
that the amount of robberies is going up as the population goes up, they may not want to live
there to sell houses, because they know buyers wouldnt want to move and live there. Small
business owners wouldnt want to have their bakery or hair salon in places where burglaries are
high and increasing. Police departments use this very crucial information to plan for if their
department is going to need more on duty police officers to keep up with crimes such as
burglaries.
In conclusion, according to my regression line, I found that Austins amount of burglaries
is slowly going up as the population increases. Even though when you are just looking at the data
points (not with the regression line) it looks like the rate is going down, the burglaries per year is
in fact going up at a slow, but steady rate.

Brandon Lucio
Algebra 2 Smith

Citations
Austin Police Department Annual Crime and Traffic Report. The official website of the
City of Austin. Final Report. 2011. City of Austin/Austin Police Department. 25 Sept. 2013
<https://www.austintexas.gov/page/annual-crime-traffic-reports>