Scenarios

October 2, 2008

•

Technical Brief

This document provides the data for four scenarios currently under consideration. The first scenario is a revision of the scenario which was presented to the public on September 11,2008. The second scenario presented in this documents is Scenario 4A, which was developed during the summer. Scenarios 7 A and 7B are new scenarios developed since September II, 2008.

A map for each scenario is attached to this document. Please note that the projections for the 2009-10 through 2013-14 school years are linear projections based upon the current enrollment, it does not include projections. However, in viewing the enrollment projections it does not appear that the high schools or the middle schools will exceed capacity moving forward.

Scenario 3

Table I shows the enrollment data for the high schools based upon the revised Scenario 3 Plan.

Table I: Scenario 3
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Total
• Harrilon 1,123 1,083 1,096 1,091 1,051
lower Merion 1,151 1,103 1,029 1,073 1,056
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Diversity
Harriton
Asian 76 74 81 86 81
Black 155 111 110 99 89
Hispanic 26 22 18 19 16
AmlndlPl 5 6 5 4 2
M 0 0 0 1 1
White 905 870 882 879 861
Socio Economic 85 77 68 66 58
Special Needs 256 240 259 281 259
Lower Merion
Asian 74 80 79 85 82
Black 118 92 90 88 83
Hispanic 29 29 26 27 21
AmlndlPl 4 4 3 2 1
M 1 0 0 0 0
White 925 897 828 868 867
Socio Economic 89 76 65 75 62
Special Needs 243 252 269 299 300 •

LMSD 02852 P-30

Scenarios

Scenario 3 Feeder Patterns High School

Harriton HS

Gladwyne Penn Wynne

Belmont Hills (except Narberth Borough) Penn Valley-Haverford and Penn Valley

Area

Change in Middle School Feeder Patters for Scenario 3

WelshVaUey

•

Gladwyne Penn Wynne

Belmont Hills (except Narberth Borough) Penn Valley (Haverford and expanded Penn

Valley Area)

•

2

October 2, 2008

Lower Merion HS

Merion Cynwyd

BalaCynwyd

Penn Valley -{Ardmore and LMHS Walk Zone) Belmont Hills (Narberth Borough)

Merion

Cynwyd

LMSD02853

•

Scenarios October 2, 2008
Scenario 4A
Table 2 provides the data for Scenario 4a.
Table 2: Scenarlo4A
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Total
Haniton 1,081 1,074 1,057 1,055 1,045
Lower Merion 1,193 1,112 1,068 1,109 1,062
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
OivelSity
Harriton
Asial 59 59 42 47 58
Black 47 50 44 42 38
Hispanic 26 21 18 14 11
Ivn hd'PI 5 6 6 5 2
M 0 0 0 1 1
White 944 938 927 931 935
Socio Economic 25 29 23 22 19
Special Needs 241 241 262 282 271
Lower Merion
Asial 91 95 98 112 105
Black 181 153 156 145 134
Hispanic 30 30 26 32 26
Ivn IndlPI 4 4 3 2 2
M 1 1 0 0 1
While 886 829 783 816 793
Socio Economic 119 97 84 95 82
Special Needs 258 251 266 298 257 •

In Scenario 4A the feeder patterns to the Middle Schools remain the same;

Scenario 4A High School Feeder Patterns

Harriton HS

Lower Merion HS

Cynwyd

Belmont Hills (except Narberth Borough) Penn VaUey-(HaverfordiPenn Valley) Gladwyne

Penn Wynne Merion

Penn Valley-(Ardmorel LMHS walk zone) Belmont HiIls-(Narberth Borough)

•

3

LMSD 02854

e·

Scenarios Odobet- 2,2008
Scenario 7A
Table 3: Scenario 7A
2009-10 2010·11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Total
Harriton 1,069 1,052 1,049 1,056 1,038
Lower Merion 1,205 1,134 1,076 1,108 1,069
2009-10 2010·11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Diversity
Harriton
Asian 59 57 60 61 56
Black 114 109 98 90 81
Hispanic 28 19 16 . 17 13
Am kldlPI 6 7 7 6 2
M 0 0 0 1 1
White 862 860 868 881 885
SocioEconomic 98 92 78 79 69
Special Needs 267 261 272 304 286
Lower Merion
Asian 91 97 100 113 97
Black 114 94 102 97 91
Hispanic 28 32 28 29 34
Am IndlPI 3 3 2 2 1
M 2 1 0 0 0
White 968 907 842 843 841
Socio Economic 76 61 55 62 51
Special Needs 242 231 256 276 273 •

Scenario 7 A assumes no change in the middle school feeder patterns.

Scenario 7 A Feeder Patterns

Harriton HS

Lower Merion HS

Gladywne Belmont Hills

Penn Wynne and Penn VaUey-(Ardmore, North of Simpson)

Penn Valley-Haverford and Penn Valley Merion-North of Rockland between the railroad tracks and E Montgomery Ave) Cynwyd-(North of Meeting House Lane to Manayunk Rd).

Penn Wynne-Wynnewood Merion-(all except North of Rockland from railroad tracks to E Montgomery Ave)

Cynwyd-(aU except South of Meeting House Lane to Manayunk Rd.)

Penn Valley-(Ardmore below Simpson and the LMHS

•

4

LMSD 02860

Scenarios

October 2, 2008

•

•

walk zone.
Scenario 7B
Table 7B-Scenario 7B
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Total
Harnton 1,109 1,083 1,080 1,084 1,059
lower Merion 1,165 1,103 1,045 1,080 1,048
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Divetsity
Harriton
Asian 63 61 67 70 60
Black 115 109 98 92 83
Hispanic 28 22 19 20 15
Am IndfPI 5 6 6 5 2
M 0 0 0 0 1
White 898 885 890 896 898
Socia Economic 101 94 80 82 69
Special Needs 271 262 268 293 276
Lower Merion
Asian 87 93 93 104 103
Black 113 94 102 95 89
Hispanic 28 29 26 26 22
Am IndlPI 4 4 3 2 1
M 2 0 0 0 0
White 932 882 820 851 830
Socio Economic 73 59 53 59 51
Special Needs 228 230 260 287 283 Scenario 7B assumes no change in the middle school feeder patterns.

Scenario 7B Feeder Patterns

Harriton HS

Lower Merion HS

Gladwyne

Belmont Hilsl-(except for a section of Narberth Borough in the LMHS walk zone) Cynwyd-(North of Meeting House Lane/E Levering Mill Rd)

Merion-(North of Rockland Ave from tracks to E Montgomery Ave)

Penn Valley-(Penn Valley, Haverford, Ardmore north

Cynwyd-(Below Meeting House LaneIE Levering Rd)

Merion-( except for area north of Rockland Ave from tracks to E Montgomery Ave

Penn Wynne-Wynnewood

•

5

LMSD02858

Scenarios

October 2, 2008

•

of Simpson Rd) Penn Wynne-(Ardmore)

Penn Valley-south of Simpson Rd in Ardmore! Haverford/Penn Valley

•

6

•

LMSD 03856

•

Scenarios

October 2, 2008

Scenario 3

•

The area inside the solid black line is the Harriton HS and Welsh Valley MS attendance area. The area outside the black line is the Lower Merion HS and Bala Cynwyd MS attendance area.

•

7

LMSD02857

•

\

•

•

Scenarios

October 2, 2008

Scenario 4A

The area inside the black line is the Harriton HS attendance area, the area outside the line is the Lower Merion HS attendance area.

8

LMSD02859

Scenarios

Octobe .. 2, 2008

•

Scenario 7A

•

•

9

LMSD 02855

9'63 .BC_74~

-

Scenarios

October 2. 2008

Scenario 7A

•

9

LMSD 03845

•

Scenarios

October 2, 2008

Scenario 7B

•

The area inside the black line is the Harriton HS attendance area, the area outside the black line is the Lower Merion HS attendance area.

•

lO

LMSD 02856