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Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

ECON 354

Money and Banking

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Resources Needed For This Class


Aplia Website:
http://econ.aplia.com
Use course code: N797-QVAJ-S4W8

Professor Yamin Ahmad

Mishkin, Frederick S. (2010), The Economics of


Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 9th
Edition, Pearson

Lecture 1
Syllabus
Introduction to Financial
Markets and Money
Real World Observations
and Basic Definitions

8th edition is also fine if you have it.

Course Homepage:
http://facstaff.uww.edu/ahmady/courses/econ354/
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Requirements

Grades

Homework Assignments, Experiments


Option A:
4 Quizzes
Multiple choice questions

Homework assignments
Quizzes
Final

10%
15% each
30%

One Final Exam


Multiple choice questions

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Option B:
Homework Assignments
3 Best Quizzes
Final

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

15%
15% each
40%

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Extra Credit
Extra Credit will be available during the summer session
in the following manner:
Additional Extra Credit problem sets on Aplia
These are used to replace low scoring problem sets
Count only towards the homework part of the
course score

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Success in an (Any!) Economics Course


To do well in Economics, you need to be able to
do 3 things well (in conjunction):
1. Think Mathematically: Dont be afraid of
equations!
2. Think graphically!
3. Abstract Logic! (Often the hardest part)

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

The Keys to Success in this Course

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Things to Review from Principles of Macro

Do homework assignments on Aplia


Designed to make you think about topics! Oftentimes,
challenging
Typically, questions here are harder than those you will face in
exam

Dont be shy!
Come to class ready to ask questions! Use lecture time to fill in
the gaps!

Understand differences between movements


and shifts of curves!
(Aggregate) Demand and (Aggregate) Supply
Market Equilibrium

Practice and Discuss!!!


Think about what happens if ? Its the only real way to grasp
concepts in economics and economics itself!

Utilize my office hours!!


Come chat with me about concepts you are having trouble with,
ideas you havent grasped fully etc.

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

The structure of the economy


Make sure you read (and understand) Appendix of
Chapter 1 in Mishkin!
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

A Model of the Economy

The Agents in the System

As in Principles of Macro, divide the economy


into different sectors and see how those sectors
interact:

There are four agents that we will focus on when


constructing a model of the economy:
Households

Agents in the Economy

Firms

Markets where Agents Interact

Government

Equilibrium

The Rest of the World (ROW)

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Markets
There are three markets that we typically focus
on in macroeconomics:

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

The Map of the Economy


That is: Y = C + I + G + X - M

The Factor Market


The Goods Market
The Financial Market (- we examine in detail in this
course)

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Overview of the Course

Overview of the Course

GOVERNMENT

Money
HOUSEHOLDS

Financial Markets:

Central Banking &


Monetary Policy

-Interest Rates
-Risk
-Expectations

Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy


Financial Markets and Financial Intermediaries

FIRMS

Financial Institutions
- Financial Intermediaries

The Economy

REST OF THE
WORLD

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Role of Money

Some Definitions
Money: Anything that is generally accepted in payment
for goods and services

Medium of exchange
Form of transaction technology

In the United States:

M1 = Currency + Traveler's Checks + Demand Deposits +


Other Checkable Deposits

Unit of account

M2 = M1 + Small denomination time deposits & repurchase


agreements + Savings Deposits and money market deposit
accounts + retail Money Market mutual fund shares

Store of value
Purchasing Power

Hence money helps to:


There also used to be a broader measure of money, M3
which was discontinued as of March 2006.

Lower transaction costs


Increase Liquidity in an economy

See: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Overview of the Course


Monetary Theory and Policy
Money

Why study Monetary Theory and Policy?


Influence on business cycles, inflation, and interest
rates

Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy

How Central Bank (Fed) can have a big influence on


the economy

Financial Markets and Financial Intermediaries

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Money and Business Cycles

Money and the Price Level

Money (M2) Growth and the Business Cycle: 1950 - 2010


120

11

100

Index (2005 = 100)

13

Money Growth Rate (%)

15

140

80

60

40

3
20
1
1960 1962 1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 2007 2010
-1

0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980
M2

Shaded areas represent Recessions


Note: Figure above shows a decline in money growth rate
prior to every recession (except the most recent one)!
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

GDP Deflator

Note: Positive Relationship between Money and the Aggregate


Price Level
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Money Growth and Inflation

Money Growth and Interest Rates

Positive correlation between money growth rates and


interest rates in 1960s & 1970s
Relationship breaks down in 1980s

Note: Across different countries, positive correlation between avg.


money growth rates and avg. inflation rates
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Surpluses and Deficits


3.0
2002
2007
expansion

2.0
Government Budget Balance (percentage of GDP)

Figure 10(a) shows the


changing surplus and
deficit of the federal and
provincial governments
in the United States
since 1971.
Persistent federal deficit
during the 1970s
through 1990s.
Surplus from 1998 to
2001
More deficits following.

Surpluses and Deficits

1990s
expansion

1.0
0.0
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
-1.0

1980s
expansion

International Surplus and Deficit


If a nation imports more than it exports, it has an
international (trade) deficit.
If a nation exports more than it imports, it has an
international (trade) surplus.

-2.0

The current account deficit or surplus is the


balance of exports minus imports plus net
interest paid to and received from the rest of the
world.

-3.0
-4.0

OPEC
Recession

2001
2002
Recession

-5.0
-6.0
-7.0

1982
Recession

1991
Recession

(a) U.S. Government Budget Deficit


Source: Congressional Budget Office

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

23

24
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Surpluses and Deficits

Persistent current
account deficit since
1983
The deficit has
swollen during the
past few years

2.000

OPEC
Recession

1981-82
Recession

Surpluses good? Deficits bad?

1991
Recession

1.000
Current Account Balance (percentage of GDP)

Figure 10(b) shows


The U.S. current
account balance
since 1960.

Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy

2001
2002
Recession

0.000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
-1.000

Examine how fiscal irresponsibility can lead to


the onset of financial crises.

-2.000
2008
Recession

-3.000

1980s
Expansion

Why deficits might lead to a higher money


growth rate, a higher rate of inflation and higher
interest rates.

1990s
Expansion

-4.000

-5.000

-6.000

-7.000

(b) U.S. International Deficit

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Overview of the Course


Money
Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy
Financial Markets and Financial Intermediaries

25
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Financial Markets
Why Study Financial Markets?
Channel funds from savers to investors, thereby
promoting economic efficiency
Affect personal wealth and behavior of business firms

Brief Introduction to:


Bond Market
Stock Market
Foreign Exchange Market

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Function of Financial Markets: Flow of Funds

Bond Market: 1953 - 2010

20

Indirect Finance

18
16

Financial
Intermediaries

Interest Rate (%)

14
12
10
8
6

Lender-Savers
Households
Firms
Government
Foreigners

Borrowers-Spenders
Business-Firms
Government
Households
Foreigners

Financial
Markets

4
2
0
1953

1963

1968

1973

3 Month T-Bills

1978

1983

1988

Corporate BAA Bonds

1993

1998

2003

2008

U.S. Government Long-Term Bonds

Bonds, securities. what are they?

Direct Finance

Allows transfers of funds from person or business


without investment opportunities to one who has them
Improves economic efficiency
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

1958

Bond Market (and Money Markets):


determines interest rates
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Stock Market: 1950 - 2010

Foreign Exchange Market

16000

Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate

Stocks:

14000

Share of ownership in a
corporation/firm.

12000

10000

3.000
2.500
2.000
1.500
1.000

Stock Price volatility

8000

0.500
0.000
Q1
1970

6000

4000

2010

2006

2003

2000

1996

1993

1990

1986

1983

1980

1976

1973

1970

1966

1963

1960

1956

1953

1950

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Q1
1975

Q3
1977

Q1
1980

Q3
1982

Q1
1985

Q3
1987

Bull Market vs. Bear


Market

Foreign Exchange Market:

Stock Price Bubbles

Changes in Exchange rate:

2000

Q3
1972

Technology bubble in
1990s?

Q1
1990

Q3
1992

Q1
1995

Q3
1997

Q1
2000

Q3
2002

Transfer funds from one country to another


Changes in relative prices
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Q1
2005

Q3
2007

Q1
2010

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Some Basic Definitions


Debt Instrument:

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Classifications of Financial Markets


1. Primary Market

1. Debt Instrument: Contractual agreement by borrower to


pay holder of the instrument a fixed dollar amount at
regular intervals (principal + interest), until a specified
date

Example: Car loan

New security issues sold to initial buyers (often behind closed


doors)
Investment banks typically underwrite securities (i.e.
guarantees a price for the security and then sells it to the
public)

2. Secondary Market

Securities previously issued are bought and sold


E.g.: NASDAQ, Futures, Options, Foreign Exchange
Exchanges
o

2. The maturity of a debt instrument is the number of


years (term) until the instrument expires
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Methods of Raising Private Sector Funds


Debt Markets
Short-term (maturity < 1 year): Money Market
Intermediate-term (1year < maturity < 10 years)
Long-term (maturity > 10 years)

Equity Markets
Common stocks: claims to share in assets and net income
No maturity date; periodic payments known as dividends

Trades conducted in central locations (e.g., New York Stock


Exchange, NYSE; London Stock Exchange, LSE)

Over-the-Counter Markets
o

Dealers at different locations buy and sell

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Financial Market Instruments


What are the kinds of securities traded in financial
markets?
Money Market Instruments
Because of short term to maturity, debt instruments traded in the
money market do not have much fluctuation in their prices, and
hence are the least risky

Capital Market Instruments


Capital Market: Intermediate + Long Term Debt +
Equity
Examples: Bonds, mortgages
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Debt and equity instruments with maturities greater than a year;


these have much greater fluctuations in their prices (compared to
money market instruments) and as such are considered more
risky

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Examples: Money Market Instruments


US Treasury Bills
Issued by US govt, with 1, 3, and 6 month maturities.
Pay a set amount at maturity, and have no interest
payments; effectively pay interest by selling at a discount.

Examples: Money Market Instruments


Repurchase Agreements
Repos are effectively short term loans (usually with a
maturity of less than 2 weeks) for which T-bills serve
as collateral. The most important lenders in this
market are usually large corporations.

Negotiable Bank Certificates of Deposit


CDs are debt instruments sold by banks to depositors that
pays an annual interest of a given amount, and pays back
the original purchase price at maturity

Federal (Fed) Funds


These are typically overnight loans of reserves
between banks, of their deposits at the Federal
Reserve.

Commercial Paper
Short term debt instrument issued by large banks and well
known corporations (e.g. Microsoft, GM).
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Table 1 Principal Money Market


Instruments

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Examples: Capital Market Instruments

Stocks
These are equity claims on net income and assets of a corporation.
Issue of new stocks in any given year is typically quite small, although the
total value of stocks exceed that of any other type of security in the capital
markets.

Mortgages
Mortgage market is the largest debt market in the US
Residential mortgages are approximately 4 times the amount of commercial
and farm combined.

Corporate Bonds
Long term bonds issued by corporations with very strong credit ratings.
Typical corporate bond sends the holder an interest payment twice a year
and pays off the face value when the bond matures.
Some convertible corporate bonds allows the holder to convert them into a
specified number of shares of stock at any time up to the maturity date.

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Examples: Capital Market Instruments

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Table 2 Principal Capital Market


Instruments

US Government Securities
These are long term debt instruments issued by the US Treasury to finance
the deficits of the government.

US Government Agency Securities


Issued by various agencies such as Ginnie Mae, the Federal Farm Credit
Bank, etc, to finance such items as mortgages, farm loans or power
generating equipment.
Many of the securities are guaranteed by the federal government.

State and Local bonds


Also called municipal bonds, which are long term debt instruments issued
by the state and local governments to finance expenditures on roads,
schools, and other programs.
Interest payments from these bonds are exempt from federal income tax
and generally from the state taxes issuing the bond.

Consumer and Bank loans

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Internationalization of Financial Markets


International Bond Market
Foreign bonds: bonds sold in a foreign country and
denominated in that countrys currency.
Eurobonds:
Now larger than U.S. corporate bond market

World Stock Markets


U.S. stock markets are no longer always the largest:
Japan sometimes larger
E.g. Dow Jones Industrial Average (U.S.); Financial
Times Stock Exchange (FTSE - London); Nikkei (Tokyo)

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Common Confusions
Eurobond: bond denominated in a currency other than
that of the country in which it is sold
E.g. Bond denominated in Sterling, sold in the U.S.

Eurocurrencies: foreign currencies deposited in banks


outside the home country
E.g.: Eurodollar Market U.S. dollars deposited in foreign banks
outside the U.S.

Different to the Euro which is the national currency


adopted in Europe after monetary union in 2002.
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Function of Financial Markets: Flow of Funds

Financial Intermediaries:

Indirect Finance
Financial
Intermediaries

Lender-Savers
Households
Firms
Government
Foreigners

Financial
Markets

Function of Financial Intermediaries

1. Engage in process of indirect finance

Borrowers-Spenders
Business-Firms
Government
Households
Foreigners

Direct Finance

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Role of Financial Intermediaries

2. More important source of finance than


securities markets
3. Needed because of transactions costs and
asymmetric information
Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Primary Assets and Liabilities of Financial Intermediaries


Type of Intermediary

Primary Liabilities

Primary Assets

Deposits

Business and consumer loans,


mortgages, US Govt securities
and municipal bonds

Savings and Loans Institutions

Deposits

Mortgages

Mutual Savings Banks

Deposits

Mortgages

Credit Unions

Deposits

Consumer Loans

Life Insurance Companies

Premium from Policies

Corporate bonds and mortgages

Fire and Casualty Insurance Companies

Premium from Policies

Municipal bonds, corporate


bonds and stocks, US Govt
securities

Pension Funds, Government Retirement Funds

Employee and Employer


Contributions

Corporate bonds and stock

Commercial paper, stock, bonds

Consumer and business loans

Mutual Funds

Shares

Stocks and bonds

Money Market Mutual Funds

Shares

Money market instruments

Depository Institutions (banks)


Commercial Banks

1. Transaction Costs
2. Risk Sharing
3. Asymmetric Information

Contractual Savings Institutions

Investment Intermediaries
Finance Companies

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Regulatory Agencies

Financial Intermediaries and Value of Their Assets


Value of Assets (Billions of $)
Type of Intermediary

1970

1980

1990

2007

2010Q1

Commercial Banks

517

1481

3334

11809.5

14438

Savings and Loans Institutions and Mutual Savings


Banks

250

792

1365

1815.0

1262.3

18

67

215

758.7

892.4

Depository Institutions (banks)

Credit Unions

Regulatory Agency

Subject of Regulation

Nature of Regulation

Securities and Exchange


Commission (SEC)

Organized Exchanges and


Financial Markets

Requires disclosure of
information; restricts insider
trading

Commodities Futures Trading


Commission (CFTC)

Futures Markets Exchanges

Regulates procedures for


trading in futures markets

Office of the Comptroller of the


Currency

Federally charted commercial


banks

Charters and examines the


books of federally chartered
commercial banks and imposes
restrictions on assets they can
hold

National Credit Union


Administration (NCUA)

Federally chartered credit


unions

Charters and examines the


books of federally chartered
credit unions and imposes
restrictions on assets they can
hold

State banking and Insurance


Commissions

State chartered depository


institutions

Charters and examines the


books of state chartered banks
and insurance companies;
imposes restrictions on assets
they can hold and imposes
restrictions on branching

Contractual Savings Institutions


Life Insurance Companies

201

464

1367

4952.5

4919.0

Fire and Casualty Insurance Companies

50

182

533

1381.0

1386.1

Pension Funds (Private)

112

504

1629

6410.6

5726.7

State and local Government Retirement Funds

60

197

737

3198.8

2793.9

Investment Intermediaries
Finance Companies

64

205

610

1911.2

1665.8

Mutual Funds

47

70

654

7829.0

7311.9

76

498

3033.1

2930.7

Money Market Mutual Funds

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Regulatory Agencies
Regulatory Agency

Subject of Regulation

Nature of Regulation

Federal Deposit Insurance


Corporation (FDIC)

Commercial banks, mutual savings


banks, savings and loans
associations

Provides insurance for each


depositor. Currently it is set to
$250000 per depositor, until
12/31/2013, whereas it will revert
back to the pre-crisis level of $100000
per depositor; examines the books of
insured banks and imposes
restrictions on assets they can hold

Office of Thrift Supervision

Federal Reserve System

Savings and Loans Associations

All depository institutions

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Examines the books of savings and


loans associations and imposes
restrictions on assets they can hold

Regulatory Agencies
The new Dodd-Frank Banking reform bill that was passed during
June 2010 gives the following agencies additional power:
Regulatory Agency

Subject of Regulation

New Powers

Federal Deposit Insurance


Corporation (FDIC)

Commercial banks, mutual savings


banks, savings and loans
associations

Will be able to unwind giant financial


firms in the same way it takes down
banks.

Federal Reserve System

All depository institutions

Fed will have powers to crack down on


interchange fees, which retailers pay to
banks to cover the operational cost of
transferring money. Fed can cap the fees

Consumer Financial Protection


Bureau

Consumer loans and credit cards

Establishes an independent Consumer


Financial Protection Bureau housed
inside the Federal Reserve. Fees paid by
banks fund the agency, which would set
rules to curb unfair practices in consumer
loans and credit cards. It would not have
power over auto dealers.

Government Accountability Office

Federal Reserve (excluding FOMC


and Monetary Policy)

Allows Congress to order the


Government Accountability Office to
review Fed activities, excluding monetary
policy. Audits would be allowed two
years after the Fed makes emergency
loans and gives financial help to ailing
financial firms.

Examines the books of commercial


banks that are members of the
system; sets reserve requirements for
all banks

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

Professor Yamin Ahmad, Money and Banking ECON 354

Banking and Financial Institutions


Financial Intermediation
Helps get funds from savers to investors through
bond/equity/foreign exchange markets

Banks and Money Supply


Crucial role in creation of money

Financial Innovation

Note: These notes are incomplete without having attended lectures

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