Scientists vying to predict Arctic sea ice

shrinkage
Forecasting the amount of sea ice left after the summer melt has become an annual guessing game
among scientists, with implications for everything from tourism to oil drilling to wildlife conservation.
By: Staf Torstar News Service Published on Mon Sep 21 2015

The Arctic sea ice that has been melting since March shrank to its lowest levels for the year,
scientists announced last Tuesday. Four days earlier it hit 4.41 million square kilometres, the fourth
smallest area on record since satellite measurements began.
Media tend to clamour over the annual Arctic sea ice minimum, despite the fact that a single years
data even a record low is not the number of greatest consequence. What counts is the overall
trend: whether the minimums are getting ever more minimal, offering evidence that global warming is
disrupting the North, a delicate ecosystem and a vital regulator of global climate.
Yet for the past eight years, starting in early summer, teams of scientists from around the world have
attempted to triangulate how many square kilometres of ice will remain in September. The Sea Ice
Prediction Network began as an informal poll, but has evolved into a serious effort backed by the
U.S. National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research.
If you can know in June whats going to happen in September, thats tremendously helpful, says
Walt Meier, a research scientist at NASA Goddards Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory and one of the
networks leaders.
In October, when the entire months average is known, the scientist who comes closest will earn a
round of congratulations and the satisfaction of inching closer to creating a predictive tool with the
power to influence a huge swath of polar life, from tourism to resource extraction to conservation
biology.
So far, though, the inscrutable Arctic has managed to outfox even the most sophisticated forecasts.
Were not very good at it. We basically dont do much better than extrapolating the linear trend right
now, says Julienne Stroeve, another network leader and a research scientist at NASAs National
Snow and Ice Data Center. But, Stroeve says, according to these modelling studies, there is that
potential.
For shipping companies and cruise operators, the value of ice forecasting is obvious. Both industries
plan their routes well in advance, so knowing what routes will be ice-free in autumn directly affects
profitability. Likewise, an estimated 90 billion barrels of oil remain untapped north of the Arctic Circle,
mostly offshore. In August, the U.S. government granted Shell final permits to drill in the Chukchi
Sea, but resource extraction in the North has long been beset by unpredictable conditions.
Advance knowledge of sea ice conditions also impacts conservation biology. One pretty much has
to be tapped into sea ice issues if you study polar bears, says Andrew Derocher, a University of
Alberta biologist.
In August, Derocher was monitoring unusual melt patterns in the Beaufort Sea, which could force the
bear community there to undertake long-distance swims: fine for a healthy adult, but dangerous for a
thin juvenile. Other kinds of biologists track the ice trends because they influence oceanic algae and

other tiny organisms, with cascading effects throughout the food chain.
Canadians who never plan to set foot in the Arctic also have a reason to root for better prediction.
Preliminary and controversial research suggests the behaviour of the Arctic atmosphere may
play a role in extreme weather events farther south. With more open Arctic water, more heat
dissipates into the air. Some scientists have theorized the phenomenon is changing the behaviour of
the polar jet stream, creating atmospheric kinks that stall weather systems in one place and lead to
lingering droughts or brutal winters.
Ten years ago, the Canadian Ice Service the branch of Environment Canada that monitors
maritime ice saw an increase in requests for long-term forecasts, says Adrienne Tivy, a scientist at
the branch. More people are interested in the Arctic; more people are active in the Arctic, she says.
People wanted to know what the summer season was going to look like starting in the fall.
The Canadian Ice Service participates in the Sea Ice Prediction Network to contribute to the learning
process, but Tivy, like Stroeve, acknowledges that sea ice forecasting is still a young and inaccurate
science. Its a technology problem, at least in part, she says: satellites can provide daily data on ice
extent, but not on ice thickness, a major variable.
Nonetheless, the Sea Ice Prediction Network collected a record number of contributions this summer
and no, there are no prizes or anything, says Meier.
At this point, the focus isnt really on who did best, but mostly on better understanding of the
system and what is needed to improve predictions.
So the teams are largely co-operative though Meier points out that in 2014, the group with the
most accurate outlook was the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office, his NASA neighbours
down the hall.
Scientists fundamentally just want to understand how things work, he says. Thats certainly the
motivation I get.
How scientists measure sea ice
- Satellites like the European Space Agencys CryoSat-2 provide a continuous record of polar ice
extent, but offer limited information on ice thickness, an important variable.
- Researchers fly planes carrying sophisticated equipment that can validate satellite data and
provide richer information on ice thickness. Flights can only cover so much ground, however, and
these campaigns are expensive.
- Ground-based measurements such as ice drilling also fill in the picture. Like air campaigns, these
measurements are limited by available staffing and the slow-going reality of travelling overland.
- York University professor Christian Haas, the Canada Research Chair for Arctic Sea Ice
Geophysics, provides rare and vital ice thickness measurements with the EM bird: a torpedoshaped electromagnetic induction sounder that is towed behind a plane or helicopter. The device
can detect where ice meets water. By comparing that to the altitude of the ice surface, measured
with a laser altimeter, EM bird generates ice thickness data. This year Haass team reported the first
large-scale assessment of the Northwest Passage. They found something surprising: in late winter,
mean thickness ranged from two to three metres, and large patches of four-metre-thick ice were not
uncommon the ice is still very thick, serious and hazardous, says Haas.