ECONOMIC INDICATORS

MACRO ECONOMICS PROJECT

GOAL: In this project you gain a greater understanding of all the factors that go into
economic forecasting. Thus enabling you to make better economic decision.
OUTCOMES:
1. Define the part of the business cycle
2. Apply an understanding of the phase of the business cycle to an individual decision in
life.
3. Identify four indicators and explain how they are used to measure economic change.
4. Explain how economists use indicators for their economic predictions
5. Make an economic forecast based on the indicators that you followed over a six month
Period.
ASSIGNMENT:
Read Chapter 12 Economic Change and the Cycles
Read Chapter 11 Measuring Economic Performance
Take the online assessment (instructions will be given in class)
You are to become an economic forecaster. You will follow four different indicators for at
least six months Most current month 2015 back 6 months
Reference points September 2007 (peck), 2008 (contraction) and 2009 (trough)
There are two types of indicators you need to be aware of:
1.
Leading indicators often change prior to large economic adjustments and, as such, can
be used to predict future trends.
2.
Lagging indicators, however, reflect the economys historical performance and
changes to these are only identifiable after an economic trend or pattern has already been
established.

Economic Indicator Portfolio:

1. After you have picked your indicators define what each means and the method of
gathering and reporting the information. Also why this indication is a forecasting tool.
2. Chart each indicator for at least six months record the change that might have taken
place and why. (As a reference point find the #s for 2007, 2008, 2009). That would be
the peak, contraction, and trough.
3. At the end of the six month graphically show the changes that took place using a line
graph. (As a reference point find the #s for 2007, 2008, 2009).
4. Write a short summary of the graph explaining the changes with a point of view
relation.
5. Collect on articles that represent each indicator you have followed. This will be a link to
the article. Write a short summary of the article.

6. The final part of your paper will be a prediction based on your indicators of where we
might be in the business cycle in six months and why. This is an overall summary not each
individual indicator. This summary should be in essay format. Introduction, body,
conclusion.
7. Include pretest results in a tab on your spreadsheet.
8. Take the online assessment over the readings Chapter 12 Economic Change and the
Cycles and Chapter 11 Measuring Economic Performance. This will be an open note test.
List of indicators below
Indicators that may be choose in:
Leading Indicators
Stock prices (Dow Jones Ind. Ave.)
Durable goods orders
Factory Orders

Industrial Production
Retail Sales
Building Permits
Housing Starts
New Homes Sales
Business Inventories
commodity prices
Consumer Spending
Price of Oil
Price of Gold
Consumer Credit
New Business Startups

Lagging Indicators
Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.)
Employment
Unemployment
Personal Income
Wages
Consumer Price Index (C.P.I.)
Wholesale Price Index (W.P.I.)
Producer Price Index (P.P.I.)
Money Supply (M1)
Interest Rates (prime rate)
consumer confidence
National Debt
Budget Deficit
Composite index of 12 leading indicators
Balance of Trade
$ exchange rate
Corporate Profits

Internal Factors
External Factors
Or any other you might find

Text or Sources:
Wall Street Journal (Front Page Each Day or Monday on Page 2 Or 3)
Business Investor Daily
Economic Indicators (Government Publication)
Business Week

Kansas City Star Business Section

Federal Reserve
Commerce Department
Board of Labor Stat.
Saint Thomas Aquinas Library Resources
https://sites.google.com/a/stasaints.net/sta-library-resources/teacher-libraryresources/mrshrivereconomics
Economic Indicators Calendar
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/calendars/i-sep15.html
Current Key Economic Indicators
http://www.econedlink.org/economic-resources/focus-on-economic-data.php
Economic Indicators
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/
Economic Indicators: Main Page
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/index.html
Joint Economic Committee
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/publications/ei/
US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
Commodity Price Monthly average
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil
The Top 10 Economic Indicators: What to Watch and Why
http://www.aaii.com/investing-basics/article/the-top-10-economic-indicators-what-to-watch-andwhy?adv=yes
Economic Indicators
http://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/
United States Department of Commerce
http://www.esa.doc.gov/

Economic Indicators
MONTH
UNEMPLOYMENT

CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE
STOCK PRICES
DOW JONES IND.
EMPLOYMENT
PRIME RATE
HOUSING STARTS
BUILDING PERMITS
C.P.I.
G.D.P.
DURABLE GOODS
ORDERS
NEW HOME SALES
P.P.I.
MONEY SUPPLY
M1
PERSONAL INCOME
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
PRICE OF GOLD
PRICE OF OIL
COMPOSITE INDEX
OF 12 LEADING IND.
CONSUMER CREDIT
RETAIL SALES
PERSONAL SPENDING
NATIONAL
DEBT
COMMODITY
PRICES
BUSINESS
INVENTORIES
EXTERNAL FACTORS
INTERNAL FACTORS