LeLupaMcCloskey10B

CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
Stepup!Steprightup,toplaytheMMSTCSlotMachine!Theimagesthatarepictured
onthereelsaretheSophomoreMMSTCteachers(andMr.Acre)andtheircorresponding
textbooks!Itonlycosts50

toplay!
Description,Rules,andDirections:
Howtoplay:
1.) Simplypulltheleverontherightsideofthemachine!
2.) Ifanyofthewinningcombinationspicturedonthemachineappears,asmallprizeis
rewarded!Thewinningpicturesare:DeweyandCybulski.
3.) Continuingtoround2,pulltheleveragain.
4.) Thistimeifanyofthewinningcombinationsareshownthesecondtime,thegrandprize
isrewarded!

Towinasmallprize,arowofMrs.
DeweysorMrs.Cybulskismustappear.The
orderoftheseimagesdoesnotmatter.Some
examplesofwhatdenotesawinare:
DeweyCybulskiDewey,
CybulskiCybulskiCybulski,
DeweyDeweyCybulski,etc.Ifany3ofthe
winningimagecombinationsappear,achoice
ofeitherbeingrewardedwiththesmallprize,or
playingagaininattempttowinthelargerprize
isoffered!Towinthelargeprize,3ofthesame
winningimages,mentionedabove,mustappearonthesecondtry.Thismeansany
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LeLupaMcCloskey10B

CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
combinationsofthewinningimagesappearthefirsttime,and3ofthesamewinningimage
mustappearonthesecondtry(DeweyCybulskiDewey,CybulskiCybulskiCybulski,
DeweyDeweyCybulski,etc).Thesmallprizeare3piecesofcandy,whilethelargeprizeisa
brownie!The3piecesofcandyareworth75

,whilethebrownieisworth$1.

TheoreticalProbabilityI:
Theprobabilityofwinningthefirstroundis,or12.5%.
P(Dewey
U
Cybulski
)=8/16
0.500050%
P((Dewey
U
Cybulski)3times
)=8/16*8/16*8/16=.
0.125012.5%
Thereare3differentreels,eachcontaining16pictures,8ofthese16arewinningpictures.
Theprobabilityofwinningthesecondroundis1/64,or1.56%.
P((Dewey
U
Cybulski)
(Dewey
U
Cybulski)
)=*=1/64
0.01561.56%
Inordertowinthesecondroundyoumustwintwiceinarow.Asthechanceofwinningthefirst
timeis,towintwiceinarowis1/64,or1.56%.

LeLupaMcCloskey10B

CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
TheaboveshowsatreediagramstemmingfromDewey,thediagramistheexactsamewhen
stemmingfromtheother4pictures.

SampleSpace:
Therollshappentwiceandareindependent,sothisisthesamplespaceforoneroll.

Thepicturesthatareonthereelsare:4Dewey,4Cybulski,4Supal,3Hilliard,and1Acre.
P(Dewey)

P(Cybulski)

P(Supal)

P(Hilliard)

P(Acre)

4/16

4/16

4/16

3/16

1/16

4/16+4/16+4/16+3/16+1/16=16/16=1

LeLupaMcCloskey10B

CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
TheoreticalProbabilityII:
If$0.50arespentoneachplay,andin1outof8playsyouwin$0.75back,youwouldmake
$4.00andlose$0.75makingatotalof$3.25.Also,sinceonly1outof64winbothoftherolls,
outofthat64only8wonthefirstroll.1outofthat8willgoontowinthegrandprize.The64
rollscomesoutto$32.00andtheeightwinsisalossof$6.00.Thereisalsoanother$1.00
takenoffforthegrandprizetakingbackatotalof$7.75.Thatwouldmakethetotalprobable
outcomeof64rolls$24.25.
$
P($)

$0.50

$0.75

$1.75

56/64or7/8

7/64

1/64

RelativeFrequencies/ExperimentalProbabilities:
Simulation1:Spinningtheactualmachineresultedinthefollowingresults,notevenoneRound
2winnerappeared!Only10outofthe50trialswonasmallprize.
P(WinningRoundOne)=10/50=

0.200020%

P(WinningRoundTwo)=0/50
0
Withatotalof50plays,$25.00dollarswouldbemade,and$7.50wouldbelost.Thatwould
leaveaprofitof$17.50withanexpectedvalueofabout$0.35perplay.

LeLupaMcCloskey10B

CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
Simulation2:Inanexceldocument,therewerethreecolumnswithrandomintegergenerators,
andthenextcolumnoverdisplaysawinorloss,thenextboxoverdisplaystheamountofsmall
prizewins,thenextcolumnoverhaswhetheragrandprizeisawardedornot,andthenextbox
overhasthetotalgrandprizesawarded.1isawin,and0isaloss.Inorderforittobe
consideredasmallwin,two1sortwo2smustappear.Inorderforittobeabigwin,three1s
orthree2smustappear.97peoplewonthesmallprize,while6wonthegrandprize.This
means19.4%wonroundone,whileonly1.2%wonroundtwo.
P(WinningRound1)=97/5000.194019.4%
P(WinningRound2)=6/5000.01201.2%
Withplayingthegame500times,$250.00wouldbemade.Ofthat$250.00,$72.50wouldbe
givenbackforthesmallprizesand$6.00forthebigprizes,Withthissimulationwewouldhave
madeatotalof$171.50.Thissimulationhasanexpectedvalueof$0.34perplay.

Simulation3:Inthejavafile,therewerethreerandomnumbergeneratorsassignedtothree
wheelvariables.Afterthefirsttimetheyweregenerated,itcheckedtoseeifallthreematched
uptothesetwins,whichhadaprobabilityofperwheel.Ifitpassedthefirsttrial,thenumber
wasregeneratedandtestedforthesamething.Ialsohadtwovariables,winBforthebigwin
andwinSforthesmallerwin.Ifthenumberspassedthefirsttrial,itaddedonetowinSandifit
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CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
passedthesecondtrial,onegotaddedtowinB.Thisgameisunfavorablefortheplayer.Itcosts
$0.50toplayandafter5000plays,thats$2500.00.$42.00waslosttopeoplethatwonthebig
prize,andlost$516.00topeoplethatwonthesmallprize,includingthepeoplethatwentonto
winthebigprize.Thisleavesthemakersataprofitof$1942.00.Theexpectedvalueforthis
simulationis$0.38perplayonaverage.

The3simulationsdifferbecausethefirstrepresentsthemostrealisticresults,thesecondand
thirdhoweverprovideaccesstoalargeamountoftrials.Whilethefirstsimulationisthemost
accurateandrealistic,itisnotthemostefficient.

Summary:
Thisgameisagoodmoneymakerforthemakersorownersbecausetheearningsof64spins
wouldbeapproximateto$32.00.Withthetrialsthatwereconducted,thereallifesimulationof
50spinsyielded$21.50,the500trialsimulationyielded$222.75,andtheJavasimulationof
5000trialsyielded2286dollars.Thismeansthatoverall,thefundraiserwouldbemakingmuch
moremoneythanlosingmoney.Thetheoreticalchanceofwinningasmallprizeis,which
mayseemlikealownumber,howeverwhenthesecondroundisinitiatedthechance
skyrocketsto1/64.Basedonthesimulationofplayingtheactualgametherewasonlya

chanceinwinningasmallprize,thisisevenlessofanumberasbefore!Againhowever,the
largeprizehada0%chanceofwinningataverysmallamountoftrials,whichisgreatnewsfor
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LeLupaMcCloskey10B

CarnivalProject:TheSpinnerWinner
thefundraiser!Thisgameshouldbechosenforthecarnivalasitisveryexcitingandseemingly
affordabletotheplayer,ithasbeenproventimeandtimebeforethatsuchaspinnerisgreatat
takingpeoplesmoney.Thegameisverymodern,fun,andmostofallunique!Itisveryclever
andfunnyasitcombinesthefacesoftheteachersthatareknownandlovedwithaclassic
gamethatsbeenplayedforcenturies.ItalsoprovidesanauraofrebellionasmostMMSTC
studentsarenotoflegalagethereforecannotexperiencethethrillofplayingan,*ahem*,
spinner.Thecreationofthisgameisintheviewoftheoperatorsasitiscalculatedintheway
tomakethemostmoney.Eachgroupmemberhadavitalroleintheproductionofthisgame.
All3helpedprovidethefundingtopayfortheequipment.Michellewasinchargeofhandling
theconstructionofthegame,conductingthehandsontrials,anddiscussingthelogisticsofthe
game.TomwrotetheJavaprogramandcalculatedalloftheexpectedvalues.Andlastly,Brian
conductedtheExceltrial,helpedwiththeprobabilitycalculations,andelaboratedonthetopics
thathadbeencalculatedbyTomandMichelle.Ifyou
choose
thisgameyoullneverhaveto
pick
upaboringgameeveragain!(Getit,
choose
likecombinations,andthen
pick
like
permutations!!)Sotakeachance,andspintowin!