To:

SEIU Illinois State Council

From: GBA Strategies
Date: March 8, 2016

Foxx Holds Broad Lead With African American Voters, Needs to Close Strong
A recent round of blind IDs of African Americans likely to vote in the March 15th
Democratic primary in Cook County conducted by the Sexton Group shows Kim Foxx with a
commanding lead over incumbent Anita Alvarez and fellow challenger Donna More. Foxxs lead
is broad with black voters, holding solid in the city and suburbs and with both men and women.
Foxx is primed for a big win among black voters on March 15th, who constitute
approximately 33-35 percent of the overall electorate. Despite her lead, there are some areas of
concern where the Foxx campaign will need to close strong in the campaigns final week.
The following are key findings based on a survey of 818 likely primary election voters
conducted March 5-6, 2016.1

Key Findings

Foxxs lead is overwhelming. Kim Foxx currently holds 59 percent of the African American
vote in Cook County, to Anita Alvarezs 10 percent and Donna Mores 9 percent. Foxxs
lead is pronounced in both the city and the suburbs and among men and women. Her
strongest base of support comes from men in the city (65 percent).
She performs well with both Clinton voters (66 percent) and Sanders voters (69 percent),
indicating that any increased turnout in the black electorate will not have a negative impact
on Foxxs advantage.

A large share of voters are undecided. Nearly a quarter of black voters here say they are
undecided (23 percent). This includes a follow up question to voters who initially report as
undecided. That is a high share, but not necessarily surprising, given a history of African
American voters not coalescing around an African American candidate until very late in a
campaign. Voters on the west side and north side of Chicago were more likely than others to
report as undecided.

Interviews were conducted via live dialers to respondents on land lines, not cell phones, potentially missing out on
a segment of the electorate that tends to be younger and more transient. Margin of error on a survey of 818 people is
+/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval. Results have been weighted by region and gender,
based on counts from a voter file. Likely voters are determined by self-identification, and not vote history or
registration status.

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