NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, March 15, 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of March 7, 2016 through March 13, 2016 are among a national sample of 8,840 adults aged 18 and over,
including 7,321 registered voters (+/- 1.7%), 2,280 registered Republican voters (+/-3.1%) and 2,597 registered Democratic voters
(+/-2.7%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the

Economy
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Strongly approve
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Over the past week, did you follow news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election:

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22-2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Extremely Closely
21
20
18
19
18
18
16
12
13
13
13

Very closely
29
29
29
27
29
30
27
24
26
26
23

Somewhat closely
32
34
35
35
35
34
36
38
38
37
37

Not so closely
11
11
12
13
12
12
14
16
15
17
17

Not at all closely

6
5
5
6
6
6
7
9
8
8
9

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
-

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
Party
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Jeb
Bush
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
8
8
8
8
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
2
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
24
20
18
19
18
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2
2
3
2
3

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
12
9
7
8
7
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
11
18
21
16
14
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum
1
1

Donald
Trump
44
39
40
36
38
35
39
39
38
38
35

Dont
Know
7
6
6
7
6
5
4
9
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president ? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]*

Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Dont know
No answer
3/7 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
* From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/8 2/14
2/1- 2/7
1/25 1/31
12/28 1/3

Jeb
Bush
3
2
3
5

Ben
Carson
1
2
2
2
2
5

Chris
Christie
1
1
2

Ted
Cruz
18
12
10
22
31
21
22

Carly
Fiorina
-

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
-

John
Kasich
3
1
1
2
1
1
1

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
3
7
12
10
18
8
11

Rick
Santorum
-

Donald
Trump
74
77
71
56
42
62
49

No
answer
2
2
4
4
3
2
5

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]

3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/8 -2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
12/28 1/3

Hillary Clinton

Martin OMalley

Bernie Sanders

No answer

76
79
74
66
71
72
77

1
2

22
19
25
32
27
25
19

2
1
2
2
2
2
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of March 7, 2016 through March 13, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 8,840 adults aged 18 and over, including 7,321 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents
for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data
for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and
Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.6 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1.7 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

8,840
7,321

1.6
1.7

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

2,280
2,597

3.1
2.7

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,155
1,104
1,296
1,748
1,901
1,636

4.6
4.2
3.9
3.4
3.3
3.5

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

6,391
844
919
686

1.8
5.1
4.7
5.4

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters
Rubio voters

2,023
1,675
1,401
797
400

3.0
3.5
3.8
5.0
7.0