M

E M O R A N D U M

To:

Tammy for Illinois
From:
Jill Normington
Date:
March 5, 2016

The recently released internal poll memo from GS Strategy Group (GSSG) on behalf of Mark Kirk for Illinois
finds that Tammy Duckworth leads Mark Kirk 42.7% to 39.6%. There are several items of note when analyzing
these data.

1. An incumbent U.S. Senator is not only below 40% but is trailing his challenger in his own poll. No
matter what else we attempt to understand from these data, it is clear that Kirk is extremely
vulnerable and he knows it.

Two other publicly released polls found similar results, although these are quite dated. An Ogden and
Fry poll in June 2015 found Duckworth leading Kirk 44%-27%. A PPP poll the following month saw
Duckworth ahead of Kirk 42%-36%. Even if we take all of these polls at face value, Duckworth is still
besting Kirk.

2. The GSSG poll indicates that Duckworth gets just 71% of Democrats while Kirk gets 72% of Republicans
and that Duckworth leads by a small margin among Independents. If we allocate the undecideds along
partisan lines, then Duckworths lead will increase because there are more Democrats in Illinois than
Republicans.

3. If we assume that both the overall vote as well as the share that both candidates get among the
partisan groups is correct, the party composition of the electorate must be 18.8% Democrat, 66.8%
Independent and 14.4% Republican (no need to bore you with the math). That is far out of line with
previous presidential years. In the last three presidential years, exit polls show the party split in Illinois
to be:

Democrat
Independent
Republican

2004
39
27
34

2008
47
26
28

2012
44
28
27

Even when Kirk narrowly won in 2010, the exit polls showed party at 44% Democrat, 24% Independent
and 31% Republican. The only conceivable way to concoct a partisan structure like in the GSSG poll is
to only consider the strong partisans of either party to be affiliated with that party. That does not
adhere to any standard polling reporting procedure.

4. The Chicago Sun Times reported that the GSSG poll showed Kirk leading among Hispanic voters 44% to
39% and trailing among Black voters, 12% to 70%. Both would represent enormous and unlikely
increases from his 2010 results. Exit polls from 2010 (a race that Kirk won) show him losing Hispanic
voters 27%-63% and losing Black voters 3%-94%.

It is difficult to believe that Mark Kirk has increased his support among these constituencies by such a
large margin and still trails overall. The only way that works mathematically is if the race is extremely
close among White voters, a constituency Kirk dominated in 2010, 64%-31%. If Duckworth is even
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JILL@NORMINGTONPETTS.COM

remotely competitive among White voters, then Kirk is far more vulnerable than it seems.

5. Other key measures of Kirks political strength are glaringly absent. There is no mention of his job
approval or favorable rating. Perhaps that is because after more than a decade as a member of the
U.S. House of Representatives and another five years as a U.S. Senator, Mark Kirk has failed to create a
statewide profile for himself he is invisible to many voters.

Kirk has been noticeably absent from Illinois recently. He failed to campaign during his primary and
refused to debate a completely unfunded opponent who then earned a full 29% against him.

6. Other measures of the political environment are also absent. What is the presidential match up? That
is one way to measure the potential validity of these results and it is not present. Perhaps these data
are absent because Kirk and his team know that they will be dragged down by the presence of any
Republican nominee, especially Donald Trumpa candidate that Kirk says if he was the nominee, I
certainly would support him.

7. Polls results should never have decimal places. A decimal implies a level of precision that a sample of
600 likely voters with a stated margin of error of 4% cannot achieve.

The GSSG poll memo is a clear sign that Kirk is in trouble, and that his only hope is to scare voters. His
internal numbers show him to be weak. Moreover, Team Kirk seems unaware of details of his weakness
with Independents and White voters.

The remainder of the memo is dedicated to laying out a serious of one-sided so-called issue positons from
both candidates that he wins decisively. These are not an attempt to understand public opinion, but rather an
attempt to signal to third party operators that they should raise the specter of an imminent terror threat from
cloaked Syrian refugees. Once venerated Republican Mark Kirk is relying on fear tactics and a rescue from the
Koch Brothers millions to win in Novemberan even more sure sign that we are well positioned to defeat him
in November.

1050 17TH STREET NW SUITE 444 WASHINGTON, DC 20036

202-342-0700

JILL@NORMINGTONPETTS.COM