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  • CSBAG Perspectives On The Macro Economy and Its Impact On The FY 2016/17

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    The document discusses the macroeconomic outlook for Uganda and its implications for the FY 2016/17 budget. It notes that GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 5-6% but inflation has risen. Export growth is sluggish while the current account deficit remains large due to high imports. It recommends prudent fiscal policy and increasing domestic revenue mobilization to reduce public debt. The outlook poses challenges but also opportunities to boost inclusive growth through strategic budget priorities and reforms.

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    The document discusses the macroeconomic outlook for Uganda and its implications for the FY 2016/17 budget. It notes that GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 5-6% but inflation has risen. Export growth is sluggish while the current account deficit remains large due to high imports. It recommends prudent fiscal policy and increasing domestic revenue mobilization to reduce public debt. The outlook poses challenges but also opportunities to boost inclusive growth through strategic budget priorities and reforms.

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    27 views33 pages

    CSBAG Perspectives On The Macro Economy and Its Impact On The FY 2016/17

    Uploaded by

    api-284426542
    The document discusses the macroeconomic outlook for Uganda and its implications for the FY 2016/17 budget. It notes that GDP growth is projected to remain strong at 5-6% but inflation has risen. Export growth is sluggish while the current account deficit remains large due to high imports. It recommends prudent fiscal policy and increasing domestic revenue mobilization to reduce public debt. The outlook poses challenges but also opportunities to boost inclusive growth through strategic budget priorities and reforms.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 33

    CSBAG perspectives on the

    Macro Economy and its


    impact on the FY 2016/17
    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group (CSBAG)
    P.O. BOX 660, Ntinda |Tel: + (256) 755 202154 |Email:
    csbag@csbag.org | Web: www.csbag.org
    Follow us on twitter: @CSBAGUGANDA

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    Important millstones

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    6.0
    5.0

    4.9

    4.0
    3.0
    2.0
    %ge change

    1.0
    0.0
    -1.0

    2.6

    2.4

    2.0

    1.8
    f(x) = 1.2
    - 0.04x + 1.78
    0.6
    0.3

    2.4 2.4

    1.4
    0.8

    0.8

    0.0

    0.7

    1.3 1.1 1.2

    0.8

    0.5

    -0.9

    -2.0

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    250.0

    25.0

    23.5
    213.6219.3
    200.2
    189.5
    20.0

    200.0

    CPI Base: FY 2005/06

    153.4
    144.0
    150.0
    131.6
    14.1
    107.4115.3
    100.0
    9.4
    7.4 7.3
    50.0

    6.5

    15.0
    10.0
    5.6

    0.0

    5.0
    2.7
    0.0

    All Items Index


    4/7/16

    6.7

    Headline inflation

    Inflation

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    Country Nov
    2015
    Uganda 8%
    Kenya
    7.3%
    Tanzani 6.6%
    a
    Rwanda 4.8%
    Burundi 5.8%

    4/7/16

    Dec
    2015
    8.4%
    8%
    6.8%

    Jan 2016

    4.5%
    7.1%

    6.6%
    6.3%

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    7.6%
    7.8%
    6.5%

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    10

    7,000

    6,403.37
    6,164.21
    6,162.79
    6,066.32
    5,701.65
    4,989.31
    4,864.93
    4,204.03

    6,000
    5,000
    4,000

    2,988.22
    2,912.11
    2,738.37
    2,706.33
    2,667.43
    2,339.32
    2
    ,317.30
    2
    ,297.77
    2,216.40
    2,072.95
    1,897.75
    2,000
    1,473.82
    1,049.43
    878.22
    1,000
    52.23
    0
    -297.50-286.32
    -1,000
    -865.11
    -1,220.09
    -1,506.68
    -2,000
    -1,582.39
    -1,752.86
    -2,042.38
    -2,109.53
    -2,188.55
    -3,000
    3,000

    USD Millions

    Current account
    4/7/16

    Total Exports (in US$ million)


    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    Total Imports
    11

    FY
    09/10
    10/11
    11/12
    12/13
    13/14
    14/15
    X (USD 2,317.3 2,297.77 2,667.43 2,912.11 2,706.3 2,738.37
    Millions
    0
    3
    )
    Y (USD
    6,164.21
    millions 4,989.3 5,701.65 6,403.37
    6,162.7 6,066.3
    )
    1
    9
    2

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    12

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    13

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    14

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    15

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    16

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    17

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    18

    Outstanding loan guarantees


    CREDITO
    R
    BOU

    PROJECT

    YEAR OF
    ISSUE
    2010

    BENEFICIARY AMOUNT (USD)

    IFC

    2007

    Bujagali
    Energy
    Ltd
    Rift Valley
    Railways

    115,000,000

    2009

    IUIU

    5,214,000

    2010

    IUIU

    567,000

    UDBL

    Partial Risk
    Guarantee For
    Bujagali Project
    EA Trade &
    Transport
    Facilitation
    Student Hostels
    Project
    Student Hostels
    Project
    Apparel Tri-Star

    2010

    Apparel Tri-Star 3,060,636

    TOTAL

    IDA

    IDB
    IDB

    4/7/16

    Apparel Tri-Star

    2006

    Apparel Tri-Star 6,037,986

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    10,000,000

    139,879,622

    19

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    20

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    21

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    22

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    23

    Sector

    Number
    Grant
    of Project

    Disbursed
    (m USD )

    Undisbursed
    (m USD )

    Percentage
    Absorption

    0.67

    Amount
    Committed
    (m USD )
    193.50
    480.32

    AGRICULTURE
    SOCIAL
    SECTORS
    TRANSPORT
    NATURAL
    RESOURCES
    ENERGY
    PRIVATE
    SECTOR
    DEVELOPMENT
    WATER SECTOR
    PUBLIC
    SECTOR
    MANAGEMENT
    LANDS
    4/7/16
    TOTAL

    3
    14

    76.20
    154.19

    117.30
    326.80

    39.38%
    32.06%

    10
    1

    985.24
    28.07

    257.67
    9.76

    727.57
    18.31

    26.15%
    34.77%

    10
    3

    9.00
    -

    408.14
    115.82

    76.21
    2.35

    340.94
    113.47

    18.27%
    2.03%

    5
    5

    463.23
    109.81

    58.86
    4.63

    404.37
    105.18

    12.71%
    4.22%

    1
    52

    9.67

    119.33
    2,273.27

    18.16%
    22.67%

    145.80
    26.47
    Civil2,929.94
    Society Budget Advocacy
    Group
    666.33

    24

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    25

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    26

    Sector
    Security
    Justice Law & Order
    Education
    Agriculture
    Trade Tourism & Industry
    Health
    Public Admin
    Public Sector Mgt
    LH&UD
    Works &Transport
    Social Development
    Accountability
    Total
    4/7/16

    Supplementary
    253,000,000,000
    31,266,683,582
    22,597,024,500
    9,800,000,000
    7,511,475,618
    6,878,817,292
    5,162,407,435
    3,903,470,289
    3,146,742,324
    1,927,008,507
    846,827,784
    810,733,622
    346,851,190,953
    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    % share
    72.94%
    9.01%
    6.51%
    2.83%
    2.17%
    1.98%
    1.49%
    1.13%
    0.91%
    0.56%
    0.24%
    0.23%

    27

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    28

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    29

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    30

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    31

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    32

    4/7/16

    Civil Society Budget Advocacy Group

    33

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