MARKET INDICATORS AS AT END: JANUARY-2016

Spot Price of OPEC Basket & Selected Crudes

Real Price of OPEC Basket
(US$/b)
Jan-14
104.71
104.01
108.26
94.90

Basket
Dubai
Brent Dtd.
WTI

Real Basket Price

Jun01=100
63.53

Refiners' Margin
(US$/b)

Jan-15
44.38
45.57
47.86
47.29

Jan-16
26.50
26.81
30.75
31.46

2014
96.29
96.71
99.08
93.26

2015
49.49
50.94
52.41
48.73

2016#
26.50
26.81
30.75
31.46

29.76

18.33

58.70

33.68

18.21

NYMEX WTI Forward Curve (US$/b)

Oct-15
Dec-15

60

30
5M

7M

9M

Singapore

A. Heavy

Brent

Oman

9.35
8.06
6.89

6.16
5.49
4.68

6.41
6.52
8.33

8.24
6.10
7.34

10.83
11.50
12.47

11M

Brent-Dubai

10
5

2013

2014

-5

2015
-10
J

Crude Oil Production (Tb/d)

04

06

08

12

14

18

20

22

26

28

Closing OECD Oil Stocks - Crude/Products Commercial and SPR (Mb)

Production: Secondary Sources

Change

Diff.
Algeria
Angola
Ecuador
Indonesia
Iran, I.R.
Iraq
Kuwait
Libya
Nigeria
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
UAE
Venezuela
Total OPEC

Minas
14.34
14.82
10.45

Differentials (US$/b)
WTI-Brent

120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20

40

3M

Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16

N. Europe
WTI

Basket Price (US$/b)

Nov-15
Jan-16

50

1M

US Gulf
LLS

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-15 / Nov-15

1,251
1,338
2,589
1,584
4,174

1,336
1,401
2,738
1,579
4,317

1,516
1,457
2,974
1,581
4,555

4.8
-13.0
-8.2
0.0
-8.2

Nov 15

Dec 15

Jan 16 Jan / Dec

1,106
1,795
548
703
2,876
4,371
2,730
389
1,856
675
10,125
2,885
2,368
32,426

1,104
1,777
547
710
2,887
4,324
2,728
391
1,795
658
10,047
2,877
2,358
32,204

1,084
1,738
540
707
2,925
4,384
2,745
399
1,869
655
10,091
2,874
2,324
32,335

-20.7
-39.2
-7.2
-3.2
38.1
60.0
17.0
8.3
74.0
-3.6
44.2
-2.3
-34.5
130.7

2014
45.8
45.6
91.4
61.7
30.8
92.4
1.0

1Q15
46.5
45.5
92.1
63.1
31.0
94.1
2.1

2Q15
45.4
46.6
92.0
62.8
31.9
94.7
2.7

3Q15
46.5
47.3
93.8
63.2
32.2
95.5
1.7

4Q15
46.6
47.4
93.9
63.3
32.2
95.6
1.7

2015
46.3
46.7
93.0
63.1
31.8
95.0
2.0

1Q16
46.7
46.6
93.3
62.8

2Q16
45.6
47.7
93.3
62.4

3Q16
46.7
48.4
95.0
62.3

4Q16
46.7
48.4
95.1
62.9

2016
46.4
47.8
94.2
62.6

2,738
1,579
4,317
924
29.8

2,815
1,582
4,397
864
28.9

2,907
1,584
4,491
916
29.2

2,981
1,578
4,559
924
30.6

2,974
1,581
4,555
1,017
30.6

2,974
1,581
4,555
1,017
29.8

0
0
0
0
30.5

0
0
0
0
31.0

0
0
0
0
32.7

0
0
0
0
32.2

0
0
0
0
31.6

OPEC
FSU
China
WORLD

2014*
2.9
1.2
7.3
3.3

2015**
2.5
-2.6
6.9
2.9

2016**
3.0
0.5
6.3
3.2

Crude & NGL Feedstocks

Total Products
Commercial
SPR
Total

4590
4550
4510
4470
4430
4390
4350
4310
4270
4230
4190
4150
4110

2015
2014
2013

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

World Oil Supply Demand Balance (Mb/d)

OECD
Non-OECD
(a)Total World Demand
(b) Total Non-OPEC Supply&OPEC NGLs
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Total supply
Balance (Stock Change and Misc.)
Closing Stock Level (Outside F.CPEs) (mb)
OECD Onland Commercial
OECD SPR
OECD Total
Oil on Water
(a)-(b)

Real GDP Growth Rates Using 2011 PPP Based Weights

2014*
1.8
2.4
1.5
1.1

OECD:
North America
Europe
Pacific

2015**
2.0
2.3
1.9
1.3

2016**
2.0
2.2
1.8
1.6

Crude Oil Spot Freight Rates (US$/b)

Jan-14
1.26
1.93
3.84
1.54
3.31

Middle East / East

Middle East / West
W.Africa / US GC
Med / Med
Carib / US EC
* Estimate

Jan-15
1.49
2.05
3.05
1.00
1.86

Jan-16
1.95
1.62
2.26
0.88
1.34

2014*
3.8
3.0
1.0
4.9

Developing Countries:
Africa
L. America & Caribbean
Asia & Oceania

2015**
3.2
3.1
-0.8
4.5

2016**
3.6
3.2
-0.2
4.9

Jan-16\Jan-15
USA
Normal
-3.3%

National Currency per US$

Western Europe

Jan-15
-8.5%

Normal
26.1%

Jan-15
7.4%

Japan
Normal
-7.2%

No data reported during June, July and August.

Jan-15
2.1%

UK
Yen
Euro

Note: + indicates colder weather.

** Forecast

# Year-to-date average

Data Services Dept.

Note: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

Note: As of January 2009, the OPEC Reference Basket excludes Minas (Indonesia).

February 2016

Jan-14
0.607
103.935
0.735

Jan-15
0.661
118.308
0.862

Jan-16
0.694
118.306
0.921