MANITOBAS CHOICE

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,809 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on April 14, 2016. A
mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. Regional
margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.09%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.45%; 19 times out of 20. Results were
weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

WHAT THE ELECTION

WAS REALLY ABOUT
Years from now when people
think back to this Manitoba
election, what will
they
remember?
I like to imagine that they will
remember all of the great
polling done by Mainstreet,
but that is just my own
fantasy, my own ego.
If I really had to speculate, I
think one day after Premier
Pallister is retired and sitting
on the beach in Costa Rica, he
should invite Greg Selinger
down for a visit, to thank him
personally
because
this
election was lost the day Greg
Selinger decided to run.
This election, like my little
fantasy, is about the ego of
one man and that is how it will
be remembered.
Any other NDP leader at the
helm would have made it a
contest,
instead
of
the
blowout it will be.
To understand this, we only
have to look back at some of
the numbers weve polled
here since 2014.
Back in November of 2014, we
started polling in Manitoba
just after the resignation of 5
cabinet ministers. A majority
of people indicated in that
poll that Greg Selinger should

resign (57%) including 45%

who completely agreed he
should resign. Perhaps its a
coincidence that the PCs now
have 46% of the decided vote,
and 55% of the decided and
leaning vote, numbers very
similar to what we found over
a year and a half ago.
At the time, we also found
that more people would be
willing to vote NDP with a new
leader, 5% more, even with an
un-named leader. How many
NDP seats would be saved in
Winnipeg with a 5% increase
today? At least 3, perhaps
more.
Greg Selinger said he wouldnt
increase the PST - I dont have
to tell you that he did. He said
the funds were directly for
ood relief, turns out they
werent entirely.
He lied and that day, his fate
was sealed but it didnt need
to seal the fate of the
Manitoba NDP.
With over a year and a half to
work, a new leader could have
righted the ship and made this
election
competitive
and
saved the careers of dozens of
MLAs, perhaps might have
even won government.
What Greg Selinger
counted on at the

likely
time,

despite seeing these numbers,

is what we saw during the last
election, and what historically
happens in Manitoba. With the
Liberals in a strong third place
at 24% in 2014, he expected
that vote to collapse to the
NDP during the campaign.
If he had read further in that
poll, he would have seen that
over 52% of Liberal voters
agreed he should resign, and
even 1 in 4 NDP voters. The
desire for change in Manitoba
is so strong in fact, so disliked
is Greg Selinger that the
collapsing Liberal vote went
overwhelmingly to the PCs
throughout the election.
We can forgive Jim Prentice
for not seeing the collapse
coming in Alberta a year ago,
so sudden and swift was the
reaction to his budget and
numerous mis-steps.
The Selinger train wreck was
17 months in the making, and
its hard to forgive anyone not
having the foresight, or basic
math skills to simply get out of
the way.
Fate may yet be merciful to
Greg Selinger in St. Boniface
where we expect a tight race.
Perhaps the voters will show
him the exit he has struggled
to nd.
-QM

A4

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

FINAL MAINSTREET POLL PROJECTS PC MAJORITY

April 16, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) The nal Mainstreet/Postmedia poll for the Manitoba Election Campaign nds
the PC party picking up new support across the province. With 46% support among all voters, even
including those presently undecided, Brian Pallisters PCs are headed towards a majority government. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of error are higher
for subgroups including decided and leaning subsets.
Among decided and leaning voters: PCs 55% (+5%), NDP 26% (+2%), Liberals 11% (-6%), Greens 9% (no
change).
What looked like a simple majority last week now looks like a super majority as the PCs gain almost 5
points to 54.5% among decided and leaning voters, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
One decrease for the PCs is among the leaning undecided voters where they now stand third at 8% behind
the NDP at 11% and the Liberals at 12%. This points to the PCs approaching their maximum potential for
accessible voters.
The NDP remains in second, up just 2% to 26% among decided and leaning voters. Their strong support
has increased from 63% to 76% which is an impressive increase, the NDP is unlikely to sink in the closing
days of this election as a result.
The Liberals continue in third again this week and after further setbacks, now sit at just 11% among decided
and leaning voters, down 6% from a week ago. They continue to be the overwhelming leaders in second
choice among voters who indicated they might change their minds.
Expect the Green Party to outperform Liberals in ridings where they have elded candidates in some
cases, they now lead the Liberals in Winnipeg. It is unlikely this will yield any seats for the Green Party,
despite a great debate performance by James Bedomme and a visit by federal Green Party leader and MP,
Elizabeth May but there is a chance for Beddome in his own riding, nished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A5

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support? [Manitoba]

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Apr 5

Undecided

April 14

A6

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support? [Winnipeg]

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Apr 5

Undecided

April 14

A7

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support? [Rest Of Manitoba]

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Apr 5

Undecided

April 14

A8

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

19%

22%

20%

24%

24%

18%

PC

47%

42%

48%

48%

46%

46%

Liberal

7%

8%

8%

7%

9%

6%

Green

10%

7%

6%

5%

4%

11%

Undecided

18%

21%

18%

17%

18%

19%

Sample

247

372

555

635

849

960

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

21%

25%

13%

PC

46%

41%

55%

Liberal

7%

7%

7%

Green

7%

10%

3%

Undecided

19%

17%

21%

1,809

1,002

807

Sample

A9

And which Party are you leaning towards

voting for?

11%

8%

12%

2%
67%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A10

DECIDED AND LEANING

60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 7

Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Apr 5

Undecided

April 14

A11

DECIDED AND LEANING

WINNIPEG

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 7

Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Apr 5

Undecided

April 14

A12

DECIDED AND LEANING

REST OF MANITOBA

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
Jan 7

Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Apr 5

Undecided

April 14

A13

If the provincial election were held today which

party would you support?
[DECIDED AND LEANING]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

NDP

24%

27%

26%

29%

30%

23%

PC

52%

54%

56%

57%

56%

53%

Liberal

13%

11%

10%

8%

10%

11%

Green

11%

8%

8%

6%

4%

13%

Sample

214

310

480

553

750

807

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Rest of MB

NDP

26%

30%

18%

PC

55%

47%

68%

Liberal

11%

12%

10%

Green

9%

11%

4%

1557

880

677

Sample

A14

Support Strength

PC
Strong 80%
Might Change 13%
Not Sure 7%

NDP
Strong 76%
Might Change 14%
Not Sure 12%

Liberals
Strong 59%
Might Change 21%
Not Sure 20%

A15

Second Choice

PC Voters

NDP Voters
16%

17%

43%

44%

29%
33%

12%

7%

Liberal Voters

Green Party Voters

14%
21%

25%
29%

7%

4%

43%

NDP

58%

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A16

SCRIPT

If the provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before Election Day?
Strong Supporter
Might Change Mind
Dont Know
And who would be your second choice?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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