NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, April 26, 2016 at 6:00AM

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of April 18, 2016 through April 24, 2016 are among a national sample of 10,707 adults aged 18 and over,
including 9,405 registered voters (+/- 1.4%), 2,633 registered Republican voters (+/-2.6%) and 3,168 registered Democratic voters
(+/-2.3%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the

Economy
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Strongly approve
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Republican
Party
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Jeb
Bush
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
8
8
8
8
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
2
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
26
28
30
28
27
24
24
20
18
19
18
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2
2
3
2
3

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
17
19
16
18
18
16
12
9
7
8
7
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
6
11
18
21
16
14
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum
1
1

Donald
Trump
50
46
46
45
48
45
44
39
40
36
38
35
39
39
38
38
35

Dont
Know
7
7
8
9
7
8
7
6
6
7
6
5
4
9
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president ? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]*
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Dont know
No answer
4/18-4/24
52
42
6
4/11-4/17
50
43
7
4/44/10
49
43
7
1
3/28 4/3
51
42
6
1
3/21 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
* From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Republican primary or caucus in your state?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21-3/27
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Absolutely certain I will

vote for this candidate

Large chance Ill vote

for the candidate

50-50 chance Ill vote

for the candidate

Small chance Ill vote

for the candidate

No
answer

57
57
57
57
58
53
47
43
42
41
43
37
40
40
38

23
24
24
23
25
30
34
35
38
40
37
40
39
39
40

13
12
12
14
12
13
16
18
16
15
17
20
19
18
20

6
5
5
5
4
4
3
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
3

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Democratic primary or
caucus in your state? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21-3/27
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3

Absolutely certain I will

vote for this candidate

Large chance Ill vote

for the candidate

50-50 chance Ill vote

for the candidate

Small chance Ill vote

for the candidate

No
answer

65
62
66
65
64
60
57
53
55
55
52
49
50
51
48

19
22
21
21
22
25
27
28
28
28
31
32
32
31
33

11
10
9
10
10
11
12
15
14
13
14
16
15
15
15

3
5
3
4
3
4
3
4
2
3
2
3
2
3
3

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

If Donald Trump wins the most delegates, but not a majority, do you think he should win the Republican nomination for
president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]
Yes

No

Dont know

No answer

4/18-4/24

58

29

13

4/11-4/17

55

29

14

3/21 3/27

57

27

14

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
44
48
43
45

Donald Trump,
the Republican
36
39
36
33

Dont
know
19
9
19
20

No
answer
1
4
2
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
43
46
41
43

Ted Cruz, the

Republican
33
38
36
33

Dont
know
22
11
21
22

No
answer
2
5
2
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of April 18, 2016 through April 24, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 10,707 adults aged 18 and over, including 9,405 who say they are registered to vote.
Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform
each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census
Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.3 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1.4 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

10,707
9,405

1.3
1.4

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

2,633
3,168

2.6
2.3

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,149
1,307
1,619
2,131
2,498
2,003

3.7
3.5
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.9

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

7,915
869
963
960

1.4
4.5
4.2
4.0

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters

2,432
2,053
1,839
1,118

2.6
2.9
3.0
4.0