I

m pa ct
s of Se a Le ve lRis e a ndSt
orm s on Bre ws t
e r,MA
I
nt
roduct
ion t
ot
he Prob le m

Throug houtt
he t
we nt
ie t
hce nt
ury
,t
he ris e of s e a le ve lha s
cont
rib ut
e dt
o incre a s e dcoa s t
a linunda t
ion,e ros ion,a nd
e cos y
st
e m los s e s ,b utwit
hcons ide ra b le loca la ndre g iona lva ria t
ion
due t
o ot
he r fa ct
ors .According t
ot
he m os tre ce ntre portb yt
he
I
nt
e rg ove rnm e nt
a lPa ne lon Clim a t
e Cha ng e ,coa s t
a la re a s willb e
e ve n m ore vulne ra b le in t
he ne a r fut
ure ,wit
hcont
inuing ris e in s e a
le ve l,m ore fre que nta ndla rg e r s t
orm s ,incre a s e ds t
orm s urg e s ,a nd
m ore .
(
Es riPre s s )

Fig ure 1:Mode lof FloodSce na rios

This m a p dis pla y

s a llof t
he b uilding loca t
ions in Bre ws t
e r in re la t
ion
t
ot
he floods ce na rios .N o b uilding s a re loca t
e din t
he b e s tca s e
s ce na rio,howe ve r m a nya re loca t
e din t
he s t
orm s urg e a re a a long
t
he N ort
he dg e of Bre ws t
e r,fa cing t
he Ca pe CodBa y
.

Bre ws t
e r is a s m a llcoa s t
a lcom m unit
yin Ma s s a chus e t
t
s whe re
a b out9,
820pe ople re s ide ,a ndm a nym ore s pe ndt
im e va ca t
ioning
in during t
he s um m e r.The t
own is b orde re don t
he N ort
hb yt
he
Ca pe Codb a y
.Due t
o it
s loca t
ion,Ihy
pot
he s ize t
ha tb y2100,a
s m a llport
ion of Bre ws t
e r willb e unde r wa t
e r due t
o ris ing s e a le ve ls
a ndm ore fre que nta ndla rg e r s t
orm s .

Focus of Proje ct

The purpos e of t
his proje ctis t
o e xa m ine t
he im pa ct
s of ris ing s e a
le ve ls b y2100,a nda hy
pot
he t
ica l10met
e rs t
orm s urg e in
Bre ws t
e r.I
n pa rt
icula r t
his proje cta im s t
o a ns we r t
he que s t
ion,
wha tpe rce nt
a g e of t
he Bre ws t
e r popula t
ion willb e dis pla ce db y
ris ing s e a le ve ls a nda s t
orm s urg e ?I
ta ls o a im s t
o a ns we r t
he
que s t
ion,wha tpe rce nt
a g e of t
he t
ot
a lb uilding va lue a ndla nd
va lue in Bre ws t
e r willb e los t
?Addit
iona lly
,t
his a na ly
s is will
de t
e rm ine whicha re a s of t
he t
own ne wre s ide nt
s a nd
de ve lope rs s houldnotlook t
o purcha s e prope rt
yin.

Building Locations
0

This m a p dis pla y

s howm uchof t
he curre ntla nda re a of
Bre ws t
e r,MAis unde rwa t
e r,a s we lla s howm uchis a b ove .
Curre nt
ly
,t
he m a jorit
yof la ndin Bre ws t
e r is a b ove wa t
e r.
This m a p a ls o de t
e rm ine s howm uchof t
he Bre ws t
er
willb e inunda t
e db yris ing s e a le ve ls b y2100unde r t
he
b e s tca s e s ce na rio,a ndhowm uchwillb e inunda t
ed
b ya 10m e t
e rs t
orm s urg e .

Flood Scenario Results

Unde r Wa t
er
Ab ove Wa t
er

1.
25

2.
5

5Mile s

This m a p dis pla y

s t
he popla t
ion ra ng e of e a chce ns us b lock in
Bre ws t
e r,in re la t
ion t
ot
he flooding s ce na rios .Allof t
he b locks
loca t
e din flooda re a s ha ve re la t
ive lys m a llpopula t
ions .

St
orm Surg e
Be s tCa s e Sce na rio

Town Population
POP_2010

0-42
43-139

1.
25

2.
5

5Mile s

2.
5

5Mile s

The e s t
im a t
e dnum b e r of re s ide nt
s who willb e force dt
o m ove in
t
he e ve ntof a 10met
e rs t
orm s urg e is 250.Outof t
he t
ot
al
popula t
ion in Bre ws t
e r,t
his is le s s t
ha n 1%.Howe ve r,250is s t
illa
la rg e num b e r of pe ople a ffe ct
e d.As pre vious lym e nt
ione d,t
his
est
im a t
e doe s notinclude t
he popula t
ions of t
he ce ns us b locks only
pa rt
ia llyloca t
e din a floode da re a .This e s t
im a t
e a ls o doe s not
a ccountfor va ca t
ion hom e owne rs ,onlype rm a ne ntre s ide nt
s.
The e s t
im a t
e dpe rce nt
a g e of t
he t
ot
a lb uilding va lue los tin t
he
e ve ntof a 10met
e rs t
orm s urg e is 19%.This is a hig hpe rce nt
age
b e ca us e itinclude s a llt
y
pe s of b uilding s ,b ot
hre s ide nt
ia la nd
com m e rcia l.As wa s pre vious lym e nt
ione d,t
he re a re no b uilding s
loca t
e din t
he b e s tca s e floods ce na rio.Addit
iona lly
,m a nyof t
he
a re a s in t
he s t
orm s urg e ha dno b uilding s .This couldb e due t
o
we llt
houg hta nds m a rtpla nning on b e ha lf on t
he t
owns pla nning
de pa rt
m e nt
.Fina lly
,t
he e s t
im a t
e dpe rce nt
a g e of t
he t
ot
a lla nd
va lue los tin t
he e ve ntof t
he s t
orm s urg e is 23%,onlys lig ht
lyhig he r
t
ha n t
he b uilding va lue .

Conclus ion

To e s t
im a t
e t
he pe rce ntof t
he popula t
ion who wouldb e dis pla ce d
b yt
he flooding s ce na rios ,t
he ce ns us b lock g e og ra phyle ve lof t
he
2010U.
S.Ce ns us da t
a la y
e r on Ma s s GI
Swa s us e d.This da t
a
wa s joine dt
ot
he Sum m a ryFile 1Ta b le s .Onlyt
he ce ns us b locks
whichwe re 100% floode da re cons ide re din t
his e s t
im a t
e.
To e s t
im a t
e t
he pe rce nt
a g e of t
he t
ot
a lb uilding va lue a ndla nd
va lue los tin t
he flooding s ce na rios ,t
he Le ve l3As s e s s ors Pa rce ls
a ndt
he Building St
ruct
ure s da t
a la y
e rs on Ma s s GI
Swe re us e d.
The t
a x pa rce lda t
a a ndt
he a s s e s s ors t
a b le we re joine db y
at
t
rib ut
e .Fina lly
,t
he b uilding s t
ruct
ure s da t
a a ndt
he t
a x pa rce l
da t
a we re s pa t
ia llyjoine d.

1.
25

st
ruct
ure s

Re s ult
s

Me t
hod

Us ing Mode lBuilde r a m ode lwa s cre a t

e dwhichdis pla y
s la ndin
Bre ws t
e rt
ha tis a lre a dyunde rwa t
e r,la ndt
ha twillfloodunde r a
best
ca s e s ce na rio,la ndt
ha twillfloodunde r a wors t
ca s e s ce na rio,
la ndt
ha twillfloodunde r a 10met
e rs t
orm s urg e ,a ndla ndt
ha tis
s a fe from flooding unde r a llof t
he s ce na rios .La ndt
ha tha s a n
e le va t
ion of 0.
28m e t
e rs or le s s is cons ide re dt
he b e s t
ca s e
s ce na rio.La ndt
ha tha s a n e le va t
ion of 1.
12m e t
e rs or le s s is
cons ide re dt
he wors t
ca s e s ce na rio.The e le va t
ion da t
a for t
he
m ode lca m e from t
he USGSN a t
iona lSe a m le s s Ma p Se rve r.An
im a g e of t
he m ode lus e dca n b e s e e n in Fig ure 1.The ra s t
e rt
o
poly
g on t
oolwa s us e din orde r t
o clip t
he de m da t
a t
ot
he ce ns us
da t
a a nda s s e s s ors da t
a.

140-326
327-765
766-4025

Ove ra ll,t
he a pproa cht
a ke n t
owa rdt
his a na ly
s is worke dwe ll.The
m ode lwa s s ucce s s fulin de t
e rm ining whicha re a s of t
he t
own would
b e a ffe ct
e db yt
he flooding s ce na rios .Howe ve r,t
o ob t
a in a m ore
a ccura t
e est
im a t
ion of t
he popula t
ion a ffe ct
e db yt
he flooding
s ce na rios ,one m ig htwa ntt
o choos e a not
he r m e t
hod.Ma nyof t
he
ce ns us b locks a re onlypa rt
lyloca t
e din floode da re a s .This m a de it
difficultt
o de t
e rm ine a pre cis e pe rce nt
a g e of t
hos e a ffe ct
e doutof
t
he t
ot
a lpopula t
ion.The m e t
hodus e din t
his a na ly
s is only
incorpora t
es t
he popula t
ions of t
hos e ce ns us b locks which
a re fullyfloode d.
Acknowle dg m e nt
s

Iwouldlike t
ot
ha nk m ym e nt
or,Dr.Tim ot
hyLe Doux
for he lping t
roub le s hoota llis s ue s e ncount
e re d
during t
he proce s s of t
his proje ct
.

Da t
a Source s a ndCont
a ctI
nform a t
ion
Miche le Brooks ,m b rooks 3144@g m a il.
com
Da t
a Source s :USGSa ndMa s s GI
S
Coordina t
e Sy
st
e m :N AD1983St
at
e Pla ne
Ma s s a c
hus e t
t
s Ma inla ndFI
PS2001
Proje c
t
ion:La m b e rtConform a lConic