259 Exmrev 106

STAT2509ExamReviewProblems1
REMINDER:Onthefinalexam
1.
Wordproblemsmustbeansweredinwordsoftheproblem.
2.
"Test"meansthatyoumustcarryoutaformalhypothesistestingprocedurewithH0,Ha,
teststat.,criticalregion,calculatedvalueofteststat.,andconclusion.
3.
"Answerintermsofcalculatedteststat.anditspvalue"meansyoumustactuallygivethe
numericalvaluesofthisteststatandpvalue.
4.
"Findallexamples(indications)of...inoutput"meansyoumustgivetheactualnumerical
valuesthatillustrateyouranswer.
5.
Don'tforgettostateassumptionswherenecessary.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
_
1.
ThejobplacementcentreatalargeUniversitywouldliketopredictthestartingsalary(givenin$000)
forgraduatesinscience.Twovariablesaretobeused.X 1 representsthestudent'sGPA,andX 2
representsthenumberofyearsofpriorjobrelatedexperience.Thefollowingdatawasobtainedona
sampleofgraduatingstudents.
15
X = 44.7
13.8
(X
44.7
13.8
137.19
40.36
40.36
22.72
2.52089
- 0.77695
- 0.15100
X ) = - 0.77695
- 0.15100
0.254727
0.019415
0.019415
0.101240
-1
350.6
X Y = 1069.27
336.88
T
Y i2 =8387.48
Y = 2.1858 + 6.5138 X 1 + 1.925 X 2
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
2.
a)
Givethemodelassumedincludingtheassumptionsnecessaryforestimationandprediction.
ConstructtheANOVAtable.
Atthe5%levelofsignifcanceistherealinearrelationshipbetweenstartingsalaryandthe
twoexplanatoryvariables?
Whatproportionofthetotalvariationofstartingsalaryaboutitsmeanisaccountedforbythe
regressiononGPAandjobrelatedexperience?
Testwhether GPAmakesasignificantcontributiontoamodelwith yearsofjobrelated
experienceinit.Use=0.05.
FindthecorrelationcoefficientbetweenX1andX2.
Woulditbereasonabletosaythatitisestimatedthattheaveragestartingsalaryincreasesby
6.5138($000)withanincreaseof1inGPA?Why?
Whatdeparturesfromalinearregressionmodelcanbestudiedfromaplotoftheresiduals
b)
3.
against the predicted values? What departures can be studied from a histogram of the
residuals?
Drawanexampleresidualplot(eivs Y i )foreachofthefollowingcases:
i)
errorvariancedecreaseswith Y i
ii)
thetrueregressionfunctionis shapedbutaSLRfunctionisfitted.
Computeloperates3computersatdifferentlocations. Thecomputersareidenticalinmakeand
model butaresubjecttodifferentdegrees ofvoltage fluctuation inthepowerlines servingthe
respectiveinstallations. Itisdesiredtotestwhethertheaveragelengthofoperatingtimebetween
failuresisthesameforthe3computers.Itisbelievedthattimebetweenfailuresfollowseitheran
exponentialoraWeibulldistribution.Thedataobtainedareshownbelow.
Computer
Operatingtimebetweenfailures(inhours)
A
B
C
105
85
183
93
43
144
90
1
219
217
37
86
22
14
39
Useanappropriatetesttodeterminewhetherthereissufficientevidencetoconclude,atthe5%level
ofsignificance,thataveragelengthofoperatingtimediffersforthe3computers.
4.
Inanexperimenttocomparetheeffectivenessofthreedifferenttypesoflinoleumadhesive,each
adhesivewastestedoneachof10differentsurfaces.Themeasuresof"adhesiveness"obtainedare
givenbelow.Largernumbersindicategreateradhesiveness.
Surface
Adhesive1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
68
40
82
56
70
80
47
55
78
53
Totals
629
Adhesive2
Adhesive3
72
43
89
60
75
91
58
68
77
65
698
Totals
65
42
84
50
68
86
50
52
75
60
205
125
255
166
213
257
155
175
230
178
632
1959
UsethepartialSASoutputshownbelowtohelpyouanswerthefollowingquestions.
a)
b)
c)
d)
FillintheblanksintheANOVAtable.
Testwhetherthereisadifferenceintheaverageadhesivemeasuresforthedifferenttypesof
adhesive.Use=.05.
Ifappropriate,determinewhichtypesofadhesivediffer.Use=.05
Whichmultiplecomparisonwereyouusinginpart(c)?
The SAS System

1
TheANOVAProcedure
ClassLevelInformation
ClassLevelsValues
surface3123
adhesive1012345678910
Numberofobservations30
TheSASSystem2
TheANOVAProcedure
DependentVariable:measure
Sumof
SourceDFSquaresMeanSquareFValuePr>F
Model116009.166667546.28787956.15<.0001
Error18175.1333339.729630
CorrectedTotal296184.300000
RSquareCoeffVarRootMSEmeasureMean
0.9716814.7767773.11923565.30000
SourceDFAnovaSSMeanSquareFValuePr>F
adhesive95704.966667633.88518565.15<.0001
surface2304.200000152.10000015.630.0001
TheSASSystem3
TheANOVAProcedure
Bonferroni(Dunn)tTestsformeasure
NOTE:ThistestcontrolstheTypeIexperimentwiseerrorrate,butit
generallyhasahigherTypeIIerrorratethanTukey'sforallpairwise
comparisons.
Alpha0.05
ErrorDegreesofFreedom
ErrorMeanSquare
CriticalValueoft
MinimumSignificantDifference
Comparisonssignificantatthe0.05levelareindicatedby
DifferenceSimultaneous
adhesiveBetween95%Confidence
ComparisonMeansLimits
A2A36.6002.91810.282
A2A16.9003.21810.582
A3A26.60010.2822.918
A3A10.3003.3823.982
A1A26.90010.5823.218
A1A30.3003.9823.382
5.
Alocalrealestateassociationinametropolitanareawouldliketodevelopanequationtopredictthe
sellingpriceofasinglefamilyhousebasedonthenumberofrooms(X 1),andtheneighbourhood
(X2).Thepostulatedmodelwas
Y = 0 + 1 X 1+ 2 X 2 + 3 X 3 +
where X2=
0
1
ifneighbourhood
ifneighbourhood
A
B
X3=X1*X2
TheSASoutputisgivenbelow.Assumingtherearenoobviousassumptionviolations:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
Writetheseparatemodelsforeachneighbourhood.
Writetheseparatefittedequationsforeachneighbourhood.
Testwhetherthetwolinesarecoincident(thesame).Use =.05.YoudoNOThaveto
stateassumptions.
Testwhetherthetwolineshavethesameslopes.Use=.05.WouldyourejectH0at
=.001?Whyorwhynot?
Findthesimplelinearregressionequationtopredictsellingpricebasedonneighbourhood.
TheSASSystem
Model:MODEL1
ModelCrossproductsX'XX'YY'Y
X'XINTERCEPROOMSNBHDX3PRICE
INTERCEP2017910932251.9
ROOMS17916619389720742.4
NBHD109310931221.7
X3938979389711686.7
PRICE2251.920742.41221.711686.7261206.41
DependentVariable:PRICE
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
SourceDFSquaresSquareFValueProb>F
Model36695.988842231.9962837.2880.0001
Error16957.7406659.85879
CTotal197653.72950
RootMSE7.73685Rsquare0.8749
DepMean112.59500AdjRsq0.8514
C.V.6.87139
ParameterEstimates
ParameterStandardTforH0:
VariableDFEstimateErrorParameter=0Prob>|T|
INTERCEP133.94508213.690387402.4790.0247
ROOMS18.0319671.566278765.1280.0001
NBHD15.90209118.833365760.3130.7580
X312.0892172.077977141.0050.3297
Model:MODEL2
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model26635.480763317.7403855.3910.0001
Error171018.2487459.89698
CTotal197653.72950
C.V.6.87359
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP123.7371339.186753582.5840.0193
ROOMS19.2189381.029623058.9540.0001
NBHD112.6967433.535372323.5910.0023
Model:MODEL3
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model15862.943705862.9437058.9310.0001
Error181790.7858099.48810
CTotal197653.72950
C.V.8.85863
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP123.33867711.838958071.9710.0643
ROOMS19.9727741.299103237.6770.0001
6.
Inanexperimenttocomparethecostofagivenbasketofgoodsinfourdifferentcities,random
samplesof10supermarketswereselectedineachofthe4cities.Theresultsobtainedaregiven
below.
Toronto
Kingston
Ottawa
Montreal
68
72
65
80
40
63
42
75
72
89
74
88
56
60
50
92
70
75
68
93
60
91
76
70
47
58
50
62
55
68
52
78
58
77
75
86
53
65
60
72
Totals
579
718
612
796
UsethepartialSASoutputshownbelowtohelpyouanswerthefollowingquestions.
a)
b)
c)
d)
|2705
FillinthegapsintheANOVAtable.
Testwhetherthereisadifferenceintheaveragecostofamarketbasketinthedifferentcities.
Use=.05.
Ifappropriate,determinewhichcitiesdiffer.UsetheTukeyMultipleComparisonprocedure
with=.05.
Whichcityorcitieswouldyousayhadtheleastexpensivebasketofgoodsonaverage?
Why?
data;
inputcitycost@@;
cards;
168140172156170160147155158153
272263289260275291258268277265
365342374350368376350352375360
480475488492493470462478486472
run;
procanova;
classcity;
modelcost=city;
run;
AnalysisofVarianceProcedure
ClassLevelsValues
CITY41234
Numberofobservationsindataset=40
DependentVariable:COST
SumofMean
SourceDFSquaresSquareFValuePr>F
Model8.160.0003
Error
RSquareC.V.RootMSEMEASUREMean
0.40468216.2820467.6250000
CITY8.160.0003
7.
a)
Theleastsquaresregressionequation Y =1.53.5X1+7.5X2150X3gavethefollowing
results:
Ftestfor
H 0 : 1= 2 = 3 = 0
H A : at least one j 0
F=37.5
pvalue=.0002
ttestsfor
H0 : j=0
HA: j 0
X1
X2
X3
i)
ii)
iii)
b)
t=0.5
t=1.89
t=1.29
pvalue=.54
pvalue=.28
pvalue=.31
Explainthereasonsfortheseseeminglycontradictoryresults.
IfX1wereremovedfromthemodel,doyouthinkthecoefficientsofX 2andX3
wouldstillbeapproximately7.5and150respectively?Whyorwhynot?
SSR( X 2 | X 1 , X 3 ) [SSR( X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ) - SSR( X 1 , X 3 )]
=
Would
be
TSS
TSS
SSR( X 2 )
approximatelyequalto
, theproportionofthetotalsumofsquares
TSS
accountedforbyX2inasimplelinearregressionofYonX2?Why?
Onepersonclaimsthataresponsevariableofinterestcanbeadequatelyrepresentedbyafirst
orderlinearmodelcontainingthe2variablesX1andX2.Acolleagueclaimsthattheextra3
variables X 3 = X 12 , X 4 = X 22 , X 5 = X 1 X 2 areneeded.Thereare85observations,and
TSS=332.92
Thefittedregressionequationusingall5variablesis:
Y = 1.109 + 1.982 X 1 + 4.657 X 2 + 4.223 X 3 + 1.218 X 4 + 0.223 X 5 with SSR =
296.30.
ThefittedequationusingonlyX1andX2is:
Y = 45.73 + 9.803 X 1 + 7.451 X 2 withSSR=287.71.
Basedontheseresultswhichclaimwouldyousupport?Use=.05.
8.
Basedonthefollowingcorrelationmatrix
Y
X1
X2
X3
a)
b)
9.
X1
X2
X3
1
.25
.36
.59
.25
1
.54
.22
.36
.54
1
.31
.59
.22
.31
1
WhatistherelationshipbetweenthecorrelationcoefficientofYwithX 1andthecoefficient
ofdeterminationfortheSLRofYonX1?Whatarethesevaluesinthisproblem?
WhichtwoXvariablesaremosthighlycorrelatedwithY?Which2Xvariablesarethe
mosthighlycorrelatedwitheachother?
Themanagerofasmallenginerepairshopwantstodeterminewhetherthelengthoftimeittakesto
receivespecialorderpartsisthesameforthreedifferentwarehouses.Thenumberofdaysittakesto
specialorderapartwasrecordedfor22randomlyselectedordersfromeachofthethreewarehouses
A,B,C.SASoutputisshownbelow.
DATAPARTS;
INPUTwarehous$time@@;
cards;
A13A17A14A10A9A15A10A11A13A18A14
A13A15A12A14A15A17A14A11A14A16A12
B7B12B9B15B6B10B12B10B8B14B10
B6B9B13B11B9B13B10B11B16B10B9
C10C12C18C19C17C15C20C11C15C13C17
C13C17C14C16C15C13C15C9C14C14C15
RUN;
PROCCHART;
BYwarehous;
VBARtime;
RUN;
PROCANOVA;
CLASSwarehous;
MODELtime=warehous;
Meanswarehous/tukeycldiff;
RUN;
The SAS System
--------------------------------- warehouse=A ---------------------------------Frequency

8
*****
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6
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4
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2
*****
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10
12
14
16
18
time Midpoint
The SAS System
--------------------------------- warehouse=B ---------------------------------Frequency
*****
8
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6
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4
*****
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2
*****
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6.25
8.75
11.25
13.75
16.25
time Midpoint
The SAS System
--------------------------------- warehouse=C ---------------------------------Frequency
*****
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*****
6
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4
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2
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10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
time Midpoint
TheSASSystem11
+++++++++++
RESIDUAL||
5+***+
R|***|
e|***|
s0+***+
i|***|
d|***|
u5+***+
a||
l||
10++
||
+++++++++++
10.010.511.011.512.012.513.013.514.014.515.0
PredictedValueofTIMEPRED
ClassLevelsValues
WAREHOUS3ABC
Numberofobservationsindataset=66
DependentVariable:TIME
SumofMean
SourceDFSquaresSquareFValuePr>F
Model205.727272715.000.0001
Error432.0454545
RSquareC.V.RootMSETIMEMean
0.32257120.357792.61875212.8636364
WAREHOUS205.727272715.000.0001
Tukey'sStudentizedRange(HSD)Testforvariable:TIME
NOTE:ThistestcontrolsthetypeIexperimentwiseerrorrate.
Alpha=0.05Confidence=0.95df=63MSE=6.857864
CriticalValueofStudentizedRange=3.395
MinimumSignificantDifference=1.8953
Comparisonssignificantatthe0.05levelareindicatedby
DifferenceSimultaneous
WAREHOUSBetween95%Confidence
ComparisonMeansLimits
CA1.1360.7593.032
CB4.1822.2876.077
AC1.1363.0320.759
AB3.0451.1504.941
BC4.1826.0772.287
BA3.0454.9411.150
a)
BasedonthehistogramsandresidualplotsshownabovewouldyousaythatanANOVAF
testwasvalid?Whyorwhynot?
Fillinthemissingvaluesintheoutput.
Testwhether theaveragenumberofdays tospecialorderapart is thesameforall 3
warehouses.Use=.05.
Ifappropriate,usetheresultsoftheTukeymultiplecomparisontesttodeterminewhich
warehousesdifferinaveragenumberofdaystospecialorder.(Youdonotneedtocarryout
aformalhypothesistest.) Underwhatcircumstanceswouldcarryingoutsuchtests not be
appropriate?
Whyaremultiplecomparisonmethodsneeded?
CarryoutthecalculationstoobtaintheTukeyC.I.forCA.
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
10.
WhencarryingoutBonferronimultiplecomparisonsonthemeansof5differentpopulationswith
=.10,
a)
b)
Howmanytestsareneededtotestfordifferencesbetweenallpossiblepairsofmeans?
Whatarethenullandalternativehypothesesbeingtested?Whatistheformulaforthecritical
difference?
Whatisthesignificancelevelforeachindividualtest?
Definewhatismeantbythefamily,oroverallerrorrate,forthetests.
c)
d)
11.
Inordertopredictmonthlypowerusagebasedonhousesize,datawasobtainedandascatterplot
produced.Basedonthescatterplotitwasdecidedtofitaquadraticmodel.Thedataobtainedis
summarizedbelow.
10
X
X =
20
20
20
17
70
27.1
X Y = 14.3
53.1
68
( X T X )-1 =
-1
14
-1
14
1
20
28
Y i2 = 83.77
a)
b)
c)
State the appropriate model along with the assumptions necessary for estimation and
hypothesistesting.
Findtheleastsquaresfittedregressionequation.
CompletethefollowingANOVAtable.
Source
d)
e)
f)
g)
12.
d.f.
S.S.
regression
10.2677
error
0.0613
total
10.329
M.S.
WhatisMSEestimating?WhatdoesitmeanwhenwesayMSEisanunbiasedestimator?
Isthereasignificantlinearrelationshipbetweenmonthlypowerusageandtheexplanatory
variables?Use=0.05.
ComputethecoefficientofcorrelationbetweenXandY.
Finda95%C.I.estimatefor2.Basedonthisconfidenceintervalwouldyouconcludethat
thequadratictermcontributedtothemodel?Whyorwhynot?
Inordertocomparethreebrandsofgasoline,eachbrandwastestedineachofsevencars,driven
underidenticalconditions. Themilespergallonachievedbyeachcarforeachgasolinebrandis
givenbelow.PartialSASoutputisalsogiven.
Car
GasA
GasB
GasC
Totals
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
16
18
17
20
19
20
18
19
22
23
20
22
21
23
23
24
22
23
25
20
22
58
64
62
63
66
61
63
Totals
128
150
159
437
Source
df
SS
MS
Gas
Brand
14.53
Car
0.84
error
Total
a)
b)
115.238
FillintheblanksintheANOVAtable.
Atthe.05levelofsignificanceistheresufficientevidencetoconcludethattheaveragemiles
pergallondiffersbetweenthe3brandsofgas?
13.
TheDirectorofManagementInformationSystemsataconglomeratemustpreparehislongrange
forecastsforthecompany's3yearbudget.Inparticularhemustdevelopstaffingratiostopredictthe
numberofprojectleadersbasedonthenumberofprogrammers. Theresultsofasampleofthe
electronicdataprocessingstaffsof10companieswithintheindustryareasfollows:
No.ofProgrammers No.ofProjectLeaders
15
7
20
12
16
20
10
9
18
15
6
2
10
4
7
8
4
6
7
9
63
T
X Y =
979
a)
b)
c)
d)
14.
10
142
142
2204
T
X X =
Y i2 = 451
StatetheappropriateSLRmodelalongwiththeassumptionsnecessaryforestimationand
hypothesistesting.
Findtheleastsquaresfittedregressionline.
Computethecoefficientofdeterminationandinterpretit.
Assumingthatitwasconcludedthatthereisalinearrelationshipbetweennumberofproject
leadersandnumberofprogrammers,finda90%confidenceintervaltopredictthenumberof
managersneededatCompanyXYZifitplanstoemploy14programmers.
Acostanalystforalargeuniversitywouldliketodeveloparegressionmodeltopredictlibrary
expendituresformaterialsandsalaries(in$millions).Threeexplanatoryvariablesareavailablefor
consideration:
X1=no.ofvolumesinthelibrary(inthousands)
X2=no.ofvolumestobeaddedinagivenyear(inthousands)
X3=no.ofcurrentserials(inthousands)
Asampleof20largeresearchlibrarieswasselectedandthecomputeroutputonthefollowingpages
produced.
a)
b)
c)
Listalltheindicationsofmulticollinearityyoucanfindintheoutput.
AssumingthatanyassumptionviolationsinMODEL7(the3variablemodel)arenotsevere
enoughtoinvalidateestimationandhypothesistests,testwhetherX 1andX3contributeto
thepredictionoflibraryexpendituresinamodelthatincludesX2.Use=.05
Which regression model would you advise the analyst to choose? Provide a detailed
explanationforyourchoice.
SAS
Correlation
CORRX1YX2X3
X11.00000.92670.94630.9082
Y0.92671.00000.91880.8953
X20.94630.91881.00000.8761
X30.90820.89530.87611.0000
Model:MODEL1
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model1314544161.69314544161.69115.5890.0001
Error1951703289.4122721225.7585
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.17.43350
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP13266.565093679.473708504.8070.0001
X112.3146880.2152950010.7510.0001
++++++++++
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E2000+**+
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A|*|
L2000+*+
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600080001000012000140001600018000200002200024000
PRED
Model:MODEL2
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model1309158879.58309158879.58102.8930.0001
Error1957088571.5223004661.6591
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.18.31892
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP1664.572085946.213805790.7020.4910
X21114.39801011.2778261410.1440.0001
++++++++++
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||
4000++
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E2000++
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D0+*****+
U|****|
A|*|
L2000+***+
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40006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000
PRED
Model:MODEL3
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model1293586581.99293586581.9976.7700.0001
Error1972660869.1033824256.2686
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.20.66692
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP12244.979484927.702591992.4200.0257
X31270.40897630.862172568.7620.0001
+++++++++
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400060008000100001200014000160001800020000
PRED
Model:MODEL4
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model2320669262.90160334631.4563.3200.0001
Error1845578188.1962532121.5665
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.16.81684
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP11967.0609701061.93946361.8520.0805
X111.3694020.642286022.1320.0470
X2149.79878732.018752591.5550.1373
++++++++++
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E2000++
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D0+****+
U|***|
A|**|
L2000+**+
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++++++++++
40006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000
PRED
Model:MODEL5
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model2320570959.74160285479.8763.1650.0001
Error1845676491.3592537582.8533
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.16.83497
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP12656.899966766.177707243.4680.0027
X111.6195760.496655643.2610.0043
X3192.55287560.056042681.5410.1407
++++++++++
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40006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000
PRED
Model:MODEL6
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model2322034328.09161017164.0565.5530.0001
Error1844213123.0052456284.6114
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.16.56310
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP1792.153987857.334218740.9240.3677
X2171.97559421.149527653.4030.0032
X31117.45402551.301027812.2900.0343
+++++++++
||
||
5000++
||
R|*|
E2500+*+
S|*|
I|******|
D0+******+
U|***|
A|*|
L2500+*+
|*|
||
5000++
||
+++++++++
400060008000100001200014000160001800020000
PRED
Model:MODEL7
DependentVariable:Y
AnalysisofVariance
SumofMean
Model3325360308.32108453436.1145.0930.0001
Error1740887142.7812405126.0459
CTotal20366247451.10
C.V.16.38970
ParameterEstimates
INTERCEP11566.5699971073.96025831.4590.1629
X110.8543650.726528341.1760.2558
X2144.37495531.446232971.4110.1762
X3182.28468158.918691261.3970.1805
++++++++++
||
||
4000++
||
R|**|
E2000++
S|**|
I|****|
D0+*****+
U|****|
A|*|
L2000+*+
||
|*|
4000++
||
++++++++++
40006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000
PRED

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STAT2509ExamReviewProblems1

Y = 2.1858 + 6.5138 X 1 + 1.925 X 2

The SAS System

The SAS System

--------------------------------- warehouse=A ---------------------------------Frequency

The SAS System

--------------------------------- warehouse=B ---------------------------------Frequency

--------------------------------- warehouse=C ---------------------------------Frequency

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