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  • Brief For Resource Managers: Synthesis

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    Great Basin Fire Science Exchange
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    Each of these fact sheets provides a different approach for evaluating the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change. These approaches did not always agree in their predictions for the future of sagebrush. Species distribution models (SDMs) predicted large decreases in the extent of sagebrush ecosystems, while analyses of longitudinal data, carbon cycling and fire histories indicated more modest impacts. Currently, we do not know which approach is closer to the truth. SDMs might do a better job of capturing long-term and regional-scale patterns, or they might be biased by a number of problematic assumptions. We recently began a new project to rigorously compare the results of different modeling frameworks. If we find that predictions are qualitatively consistent across the models, we would have much greater confidence using model output to guide management decisions. For now, we caution that managers should not rely solely on SDMs to guide decisions.

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    Synthesis

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    Each of these fact sheets provides a different approach for evaluating the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change. These approaches did not always agree in their predictions for the future of sagebrush. Species distribution models (SDMs) predicted large decreases in the extent of sagebrush ecosystems, while analyses of longitudinal data, carbon cycling and fire histories indicated more modest impacts. Currently, we do not know which approach is closer to the truth. SDMs might do a better job of capturing long-term and regional-scale patterns, or they might be biased by a number of problematic assumptions. We recently began a new project to rigorously compare the results of different modeling frameworks. If we find that predictions are qualitatively consistent across the models, we would have much greater confidence using model output to guide management decisions. For now, we caution that managers should not rely solely on SDMs to guide decisions.

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    17 views1 page

    Brief For Resource Managers: Synthesis

    Uploaded by

    Great Basin Fire Science Exchange
    Each of these fact sheets provides a different approach for evaluating the vulnerability of sagebrush ecosystems to climate change. These approaches did not always agree in their predictions for the future of sagebrush. Species distribution models (SDMs) predicted large decreases in the extent of sagebrush ecosystems, while analyses of longitudinal data, carbon cycling and fire histories indicated more modest impacts. Currently, we do not know which approach is closer to the truth. SDMs might do a better job of capturing long-term and regional-scale patterns, or they might be biased by a number of problematic assumptions. We recently began a new project to rigorously compare the results of different modeling frameworks. If we find that predictions are qualitatively consistent across the models, we would have much greater confidence using model output to guide management decisions. For now, we caution that managers should not rely solely on SDMs to guide decisions.

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    BriefforResourceManagers

    Synthesis
    PeterB.Adler|DepartmentofWildlandResourcesandtheEcologyCenter,UtahStateUniversity,Logan,UT
    84322
    Contact:peter.adler@usu.edu

    Eachofthesefactsheetsprovidesadifferentapproach
    forevaluatingthevulnerabilityofsagebrushecosystems
    toclimatechange.Theseapproachesdidnotalways
    agreeintheirpredictionsforthefutureofsagebrush.
    Speciesdistributionmodels(SDMs)predictedlarge
    decreasesintheextentofsagebrushecosystems,while
    analysesoflongitudinaldata,carboncyclingandfire
    historiesindicatedmoremodestimpacts.Currently,we
    donotknowwhichapproachisclosertothetruth.
    SDMsmightdoabetterjobofcapturinglongtermand
    regionalscalepatterns,ortheymightbebiasedbya
    numberofproblematicassumptions.Werecentlybegan
    anewprojecttorigorouslycomparetheresultsof
    differentmodelingframeworks.Ifwefindthat
    predictionsarequalitativelyconsistentacrossthe
    models,wewouldhavemuchgreaterconfidenceusing
    modeloutputtoguidemanagementdecisions.Fornow,
    wecautionthatmanagersshouldnotrelysolelyon
    SDMstoguidedecisions.
    Despitethecontrastingresultsfromthemodels,wecan
    drawsomeconclusionsaboutclimatechangein
    sagebrushsteppebasedonecologicalprinciples,natural
    history,andhistoricaltrends.First,itislikelythat
    increasingtemperatureswillstressnativesagebrush

    UtahStateUniversity

    ManagementImplications

    Increasingtemperatureswillstressnative
    sagebrushsteppespeciesinthelowest,
    hottestbasins.
    Greatestneartermuncertaintyisthe
    influenceofclimatechangeoncheatgrass
    andfire.
    Greatestlongtermuncertaintyisthe
    adaptivecapacityofsagebrush.
    Decisionmakersshouldnotrelyonlyon
    projectionsfromspeciesdistribution
    models.

    steppespeciesinthelowest,hottestbasinsmorethan
    incoolerandwetteruplandhabitats.Second,theeffect
    ofclimatechangeoncheatgrassandfireiscriticalbut
    uncertain.Regionalwarmingwillincreasethefrequency
    ofhot,dryconditionsthatpromotefire,butdroughts
    coulddampenthefirecyclebylimitingtheproduction
    offinefuels.Third,theadaptivecapacityofsagebrushis
    unknownandresearchonthepotentialforsagebrush
    toadapttoclimatechangeshouldbeahighpriority.
    Finally,thegreatestuncertaintyforanydecisionmaking
    istherateoffuturegreenhousegasemissions,afactor
    overwhichlocallandmanagersandregionalpolicy
    makershavelittlecontrol.

    www.scribd.com/collections/16610170

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