PROBABILITY

GIROLAMO CARDANO

Lived in the 16 th century

Father of Probability

Italian

Renaissance mathematician

Always short of cash, but lived of off gambling (chess player)

SAMPLE SPACE

Picking something from a whole

A list of all possible outcomes (results) from the whole is called a sample space

Example:
If the juggler drops one, which ball could it be?
Sample space = {tennis ball, football, Ping-Pong ball, basketball,
volleyball}

SAMPLE SPACE
Example:
A bag contains positive integers less than 10. List the sample space when one number is
picked at random.
Sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9}
Example:
What is the sample space when two coins are tossed?
S = {(Head, Head), (Head, Tail), (Tail, Head), (Tail, Tail)}
or
S = {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)}

CHANCE EXPERIMENTS

Also called as trials

How often can the events occur (with testing and observation)?

Experimental probability ratio of number of times an event occurs to the total times the
activity is performed

Experimental probability of an event (E)

The greater the number of trials, the more accurate the experimental probability value is

CHANCE EXPERIMENTS

In a local supermarket promotion, shoppers are given scratch cards that contain
offers of 2%, 5%, 10% and 25% off their shopping bill. Fifty cards were collected and
scratched with the following results:

2%, 5%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 5%, 10%, 2%, 2%, 5%, 2%, 10%, 25%, 2%, 5%, 2%, 2%, 2%,
5%, 2%, 10%, 2%, 2%, 5%, 2% 5%, 2%, 25%, 5%, 2%, 2%, 5%, 2%, 2%, 5%, 10%,
10%, 2%, 5%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 5%, 2%, 2%, 2%, 10%, 2%, 2%

CHANCE EXPERIMENTS

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

The expected chance of events written as fractions, decimals or percentages

Compares how many times a particular event can happen with all the possible outcomes

Total favorable outcomes = # of outcomes matching the result wanted

Total possible outcomes = total # of outcomes in the sample space

Probability of an event

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

LIMITATION OF THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

In an ideal and perfect world, where things are fair and even = meh, ok.

Real world = can be affected by things that makes results different

Questions like these often come up:

Is the tool perfectly fair, or biased for a certain result?
Is it worn out or damaged in any way?
Is the surface smooth, or sloped?
Is it hot or cold, windy or calm?

Theoretical probability just tells us what SHOULD happen and not what WILL
happen.
Shoulda, woulda, coulda

LIMITATION OF THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

Example:
A bent coin is tossed 50x with HEADS being the result 22 of those times. Compare the
experimental and theoretical probability and state if the bend has affected the results.

LIMITATION OF THEORETICAL PROBABILITY

T.P. value unreliable in given situation below?
The theoretical probability says that for every two coin flips, one result should be HEADS
and the other TAILS.
Not true.
Factors:
Bent coin, way of tossing, speed, height, and others.

PROBABILITY NOTATION

Example:
4 lime trees, 3 lemon trees and 5 orange tree seeds were mixed in a bag ready for
planting. What is the percentage probability of picking a lemon tree seed out of the bag
for planting first?

PLAYING CARDS

PROBLEMS INVOLVING CHANCE

Example:
A letter is selected randomly from a pile containing express and normal post letters, all
destined for the suburbs Tin Town and Rockville. What is the chance of picking an express
letter to Rockville?

S = {(T,E), (T,N), (R,E), (R,N)}