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NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 5 9 5 15
NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 5 9 5 15
NBC News SurveyMonkey Toplines and Methodology 5 9 5 15
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28-1/3
Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6
The
environment
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8
Terrorism
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23
Immigration
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8
Health
care
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14
Education
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9
Other
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5
No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
5/9 5/15
5/2-5/8
4/25-5-1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/44/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3
Strongly approve
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23
Somewhat approve
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25
Somewhat disapprove
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12
Republican
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30
Democrat
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34
Independent
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34
No answer
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
Strongly disapprove
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40
No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DONT KNOW FOR
PARTY]
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 4/10
3/28 4/3
3/21 3/27
3/14 3/20
3/7 3/13
2/29 3/6
2/22 2/28
2/15 2/21
2/8 2/14
2/1 2/7
1/25 1/31
1/18 1/24
1/11 1/17
1/4 1/10
12/28 1/3
Republican
Party
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37
Democratic
Party
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24
Neither
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37
No answer
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1
Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]
Hillary Clinton
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Dont know
No answer
5/9 - 5/15
54
40
5
5/2 5/8
53
41
5
4/25-5/1
54
40
6
1
4/18-4/24
52
42
6
4/11-4/17
50
43
7
4/44/10
49
43
7
1
3/28 4/3
51
42
6
1
3/21 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?
5/9 5/15
5/2 5/8
Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
48
49
Donald Trump,
the Republican
45
44
No
answer
7
7
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]
5/9-5/15
5/5 5/8
Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat
53
53
Donald Trump,
the Republican
41
40
No answer
6
7
Who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
No answer
51
43
5/9 5/15
Who do you trust more to lead the Republican party? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]
Donald Trump, the
presumptive Republican
presidential nominee
No
answer
58
39
5/9 5/15
5/9 5/15
Strongly
favorable
17
Somewhat
favorable
23
Somewhat
unfavorable
14
Strongly
unfavorable
45
No
answer
1
5/9 5/15
Strongly
favorable
23
Somewhat
favorable
33
Somewhat
unfavorable
20
Strongly
unfavorable
23
No
answer
2
5/9 5/15
Strongly
favorable
14
Somewhat
favorable
23
Somewhat
unfavorable
13
Strongly
unfavorable
49
No
answer
1
5/9 5/15
Strongly
favorable
9
Somewhat
favorable
33
Somewhat
unfavorable
33
Strongly
unfavorable
21
No
answer
3
METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of May 9, 2016 through May 15, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 14,100 adults aged 18 and over, including 12,507 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected
from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,
race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey to
reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.1 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.2 percentage point
for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group
Unweighted N
Plus or minus
Total sample
14,100
1.1
Total RVs
12,507
1.2
Republican RVs
3,434
2.3
Democrat RVs
4,348
2.0
Male
7,295
1.4
Female
6,805
1.6
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
1,012
1,795
2,160
3,040
3.9
3.1
2.8
2.3
55-64
65+
3,360
2,733
2.2
2.4
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
10,404
1,248
1,264
1,184
1.3
3.7
3.5
3.6
Income: <$50k
Income: $50k-$99k
Income: $100k or more
3,537
4,630
5,151
2.1
1.9
1.8
Education: HS or less
Education: Some college
Education: College or more
1,839
3,798
8,463
2.5
1.7
1.1
Clinton voters
Sanders voters
3,593
2,469
2.2
2.6