Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Population Forecasting - Logistic Curve Method

    Uploaded by

    pooja0100
    95 views15 pages
    This document discusses using the logistic curve method to forecast population growth. It explains that the logistic curve models population growth as initially increasing at a geometric rate until leveling off as the population approaches the carrying capacity. The document provides equations to calculate the saturation population and population at a given time from three past population data points. It works through an example using census data from 1851-2000 for an island to estimate the 2011 population. The estimated population using the logistic method was close to the actual reported population, with only a 1.31% deviation.

    Original Description:

    Original Title

    Logistics Curve

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    This document discusses using the logistic curve method to forecast population growth. It explains that the logistic curve models population growth as initially increasing at a geometric rate until leveling off as the population approaches the carrying capacity. The document provides equations to calculate the saturation population and population at a given time from three past population data points. It works through an example using census data from 1851-2000 for an island to estimate the 2011 population. The estimated population using the logistic method was close to the actual reported population, with only a 1.31% deviation.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    95 views15 pages

    Population Forecasting - Logistic Curve Method

    Uploaded by

    pooja0100
    This document discusses using the logistic curve method to forecast population growth. It explains that the logistic curve models population growth as initially increasing at a geometric rate until leveling off as the population approaches the carrying capacity. The document provides equations to calculate the saturation population and population at a given time from three past population data points. It works through an example using census data from 1851-2000 for an island to estimate the 2011 population. The estimated population using the logistic method was close to the actual reported population, with only a 1.31% deviation.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pptx, pdf, or txt
    of 15

    POPULATION

    FORECASTING LOGISTIC
    CURVE
    METHOD

    Page 1

    Population Forecasting
    Important process in the design of waste
    water treatment plants
    Factors affecting change in population:
    Fertility/ Birth rate
    Death rate
    Migration

    Page 2

    Logistic Method
    Saturation population

    Follows some logical mathematical


    relationship.
    has an S-shape combining a geometric
    rate of growth at low population with a
    declining growth rate as the population
    approaches some limiting value.
    De cre asing
    rate

    Population

    Incre asing
    rate

    Low rate

    Years

    Page 3

    Equation - 1
    . (1)
    Where
    Pt: population at some time in the future
    Psat: population at saturation level
    t: number of years after base year
    a, b: data constants

    Page 4

    Equation - 2
    .. (2)
    Where
    Psat: population at saturation level
    Po: base population
    P1, P2: population at time periods

    Page 5

    Equation - 3
    . (3)

    (4)
    Where
    n: time interval between successive
    censuses
    Page 6

    Example

    Census year

    Population

    1851

    495

    1861

    693

    1901

    3162

    1911

    4829

    1921

    6584

    1931

    8202

    1944

    11885

    1952

    13333

    1962

    18335

    1972

    24769

    1983

    33082

    1990

    34204

    2000

    35779

    The data for population


    censuses from
    1871
    1108 1851 to 2000 for
    Island of Rodrigues
    Estimate the
    1881 is given below. 1431
    expected population
    1891 in 2011.
    2068

    Page 7

    STEP 1

    Census year

    Population

    1851

    495

    1861

    693

    1871

    1108

    1921

    6584

    1931

    8202

    1944

    11885

    1952

    13333

    1962

    18335

    1972

    24769

    1983

    33082

    1990

    34204

    2000

    35779

    1881
    1431
    Three successive
    years, represented
    by to,
    1891
    2068
    t1, and t2 are1901
    chosen such 3162
    that they are
    1911
    4829
    equidistant from
    each other.

    t0

    t1

    t2

    Page 8

    STEP 2

    Census year

    Population

    1851

    495

    1861

    693

    1871

    1108

    1911

    4829

    1921

    6584

    1931

    8202

    1944

    11885

    1952

    13333

    1962

    18335

    1972

    24769

    1983

    33082

    1990

    34204

    2000

    35779

    The number1881
    of years from 1431
    to to t1 and t1 to
    1891
    2068
    t2 is denoted1901
    by n.
    3162

    t0
    n=28
    t1
    n=28
    t2

    Page 9

    STEP 3

    Census year

    Population

    1851

    495

    1861

    693

    1871

    1108

    1921

    6584

    1931

    8202

    1944

    11885

    1952

    13333

    1962

    18335

    1972

    24769

    1983

    33082

    1990

    34204

    2000

    35779

    1881 figures corresponding


    1431
    The population
    to t o,
    1891
    2068
    t1, and t2 are1901
    Po, P1 and P2 3162
    respectively
    1911
    4829
    through which
    the logistic curve
    is to pass.

    t0
    n=28
    t1
    n=28
    t2

    P0

    P1

    P2
    Page 10

    CALCULATIONS - 1
    n=28
    P0= 11885, P1= 24769 and P2= 35779
    From equation 2,

    Page 11

    CALCULATIONS - 2
    From equation 3,

    From equation 4,

    Page 12

    CALCULATIONS - 3
    Replacing the values obtained in equation
    1, the expected population for 2011 is:
    = 2011-1944 = 67 years

    Page 13

    CONCLUSION
    Based on census reports, the population
    of Rodrigues in 2011 was 37,922
    (Wikipedia)
    Estimated population with logistic method
    is 38420.8
    1.31% deviation from actual value

    Page 14

    Advantages and Disadvantages


    Advantages
    Longer projection period compared to simple geometric
    procedures
    Gives a better approximation than other methods.

    Disadvantages

    Mechanical process
    Cannot predict decreasing population
    Demographic and socioeconomic changes not considered
    Requires a large number of observations covering a long
    period
    Page 15

    You might also like