Trng ai hc Bch Khoa H Ni

Chuyn

PHN TCH TIN CY

CA H THNG IN
Kha o to: H thng ha v cp nht kin thc v tnh
ton phn tch h thng, quy hoch pht trin li truyn ti
in.

Trnh by: TS. L Minh Khnh

B mn H thng in Vin in

H Ni - 2014

Mc ch tho lun trong chuyn

Chuyn

trnh by nhng nguyn tc chung nhm

phn tch v nh gi tin cy cung cp in ca h
thng in.
Thng qua chuyn , cc khi nim, thut ng v nh
ngha s c gii thiu v tho lun.
Chuyn cng gii thiu mt s so snh v nh gi
v cc tiu chun v phng php phn tch tin cy
ca h thng in
Trnh by mt s v d n gin nhm minh ha cc
khi nim c trnh by v tho lun trong chuyn .

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

NI DUNG CHUYN (1)

Khi

nim chung v tin cy

H thng in v cc phn t
tin cy v cc ch tiu tin cy ca h thng in
Trng thi ca phn t v h thng
tin cy v tn tht kinh t do mt in

tin cy ca cc phn t

Cc ch s tin cy ca phn t
M hnh tin cy ca tp hp cc phn t
M hnh h thng ngun in
Minh ha xy dng xc sut trng thi ca h thng ngun in

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

NI DUNG CHUYN (2)

tin cy ca h thng in v li h thng

Xc sut thiu cng sut v k vng thiu ht in nng

Minh ha tnh ton LOLP v LOLE ca h thng in
D tr cng sut v d tr nng lng trong h thng in
Tiu

chun v phng php nghin cu tin cy

Cc cch tip cn nghin cu tin cy

Cc phng php nh gi tin cy

tin cy ca li truyn ti v li phn phi

tin cy ca li truyn ti
tin cy ca li phn phi
Minh ha tnh ton tin cy ca li in

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

Ti liu tham kho

1.

Trn Bch. Li in v h thng in. Tp 2. NXB Khoa hc v k

thut. H Ni 2000.

2.

Trn Bch. Ti u ha ch h thng in. NXB i hc Bch Khoa.

H Ni 2002.

3.

North American Electric Reliability Corporation. Reliability Assessment

Guide Book. 2012.

4.

Jos Fernando Prada. The Value of Reliability in Power Systems Pricing Operating Reserves. Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
1999.

5.

Marko Cepin. Assessment of Power System Reliability. Spinger, London,

2011.

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

1. KHI NIM CHUNG V TIN CY

H

thng in (HT) v cc phn t

tin cy v cc ch tiu tin cy ca HT
Trng thi ca phn t v h thng
tin cy v tn tht kinh t do mt in

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

H thng in v cc phn t

H thng l mt tp hp cc phn t tng tc vi nhau trong mt cu trc xc

nh nhm thc hin mt nhim v c th, c s qun l thng nht trong hat ng
cng nh pht trin.

V d: H thng in, bao gm ngun in, mng li in v ph ti in, c

nhim v sn xut, truyn ti, phn phi v tiu th in nng.

H thng phc hi l h thng m cc phn t ca n sau khi b hng (khng th

thc hin nhim v yu cu) s c phc hi v a tr li lm vic. V d: H
thng in. Do trng thi hng hc ca h thng cng c phc hi sau
khong thi gian nht nh.

Phn t l mt b phn to thnh h thng, trong mi bi ton c th c xem

nh l mt tng th duy nht c trng bi cc thng s tin cy, ch ph thuc vo
yu t bn ngoi. a s phn t ca h thng in l phn t phc hi.

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

 tin cy ca h thng in

tin cy l xc sut h thng (hoc phn t) hon thnh trit nhim v

yu cu trong khong thi gian nht nh v trong iu kin vn hnh nht nh.

tin cy l khi nim c tnh thng k t kinh nghim lm vic trong qu kh ca

h thng (hoc phn t).

H thng in lm vic lin tc, nh vy ngha v khong thi gian nht nh

thc hin nhim v cung cp in khng bt buc. tin cy v th c th o bng
tnh sn sng ca h thng.

sn sng l xc sut h thng (hay phn t) hon thnh hoc sn sng hon
thnh nhim v ti thi im bt k.

Nh vy sn sng l xc sut h thng (hay phn t) tt ti thi im bt k,

tnh bng t s gia thi gian h thng trng thi tt trn tng thi gian hot ng.
Ngc li l khng sn sng, hay l xc sut h thng (hay phn t) trng
thi hng.

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

Cc ch tiu tin cy ca HT
Vic nh gi cc ch tiu tin cy trong bi ton quy hoch da trn
cch tip cn xc sut, v th kt qu khng th l kt qu chnh xc nh
thc t vn hnh.
Cc ch tiu c th ha gi tr trung bnh trong qu kh vn hnh h thng
v kh nng ca tng lai trn c s nh gi cc quan st mt qu trnh
ln.
Cc ch tiu tin cy cho php p dng nh gi kinh t k thut trong
bi ton quy hoch pht trin h thng in.
Ch tiu tin cy ca h thng in bao gm:

Loss of load probability (LOLP)

Loss of load expectation (LOLE)
Loss of load frequency (LOLF)
Loss of energy probability (LOEP)
Expected Power Not Supplied (EPNS)
Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)
Thit hi kinh t tnh bng tin do mt in

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

Trng thi ca phn t

Phn t c th c cc trng thi khc nhau ph thuc vo tnh

trng k thut v chc nng ca chng. Mi trng thi ko di
trong mt khong thi gian nht nh.

c trng ca mt trng thi bao gm: xc sut xy ra (Pi), thi

gian din ra, tn sut xy ra trng thi (s ln xy ra trong mt n
v thi gian). Nh vy 0 Pi 1.

Tng xc sut cc trng thi ca phn t l mt tp hp y

kh nng xy ra cc trng thi Pi = P1 + P2 + + Pn = 1. Trong
cc trng thi c xc sut nh c th b qua trong mt bi ton
nht nh (ghp vi mt trng thi khc) v phn t lun mt
trong nhng trng thi ca tp cc trng thi.

Xc sut trng thi tt ca phn t chnh l sn sng p, cn xc

sut trng thi hng l khng sn sng q.

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Phn tch tin cy

10

Trng thi ca h thng

Trng thi ca h thng l t hp cc trng thi ca tt c cc

phn t to thnh n, tc l mi trng thi ca h thng l s xy
ra ng thi cc trng thi no ca cc phn t.

S lng trng thi ca h thng thng rt ln v xc sut trng

thi ca h thng l tch ca cc xc sut trng thi ca cc phn
t, vi gi thit chng c lp vi nhau.

Trng thi ca h thng cng c c trng bi thi gian trng

thi, tn sut trng thi v xc sut trng thi.

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Phn tch tin cy

11

 tin cy v tn tht kinh t

tin cy thp dn n s c thng xuyn trong HT, to ra cc

nh hng v chi ph i vi kinh t x hi. V th trong quy hoch
cc ph ti thng c phn loi theo yu cu v tin cy cn
thit.

Cc yu cu v tin cy quyt nh cu trc ca h thng in

(mc d tr, cu trc li in, h thng qun l v iu
khin).

Cc yu t nh hng n tin cy:

Cht lng phn t
Cu trc h thng
Kh nng iu khin
H thng qun l
Mi trng
Yu t con ngi
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Phn tch tin cy

12

 tin cy v tn tht kinh t

Nng cao tin cy ca HT i hi vn u t, v th thng

c nh gi da trn hiu qu kinh t k thut.

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Phn tch tin cy

13

Cc bi ton tin cy

Theo i tng:
Bi ton v tin cy ca h thng in, xt c ngun in n cc nt ti h
thng do li h thng cung cp in.
Bi ton v tin cy ca li truyn ti v li phn phi.
Theo mc ch nghin cu:
Bi ton quy hoch, phc v quy hoch pht trin h thng in;
Bi ton vn hnh, phc v vn hnh h thng in.
Theo ni dung:
Bi ton gii tch, tnh ton cc ch tiu tin cy ca h thng in c cu
trc cho trc.
Bi ton tng hp, nhm xc nh trc tip thng s ca mt phn t no
trn c s cho trc yu cu tin cy v cc thng s ca cc phn t cn li.
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Phn tch tin cy

14

Yu cu nh gi tin cy

Phn tch tin cy: nghin cu nh hng ca cc yu t bn trong

v bn ngoi n tin cy ca HT.

Bi ton: tnh ton v nh gi cc ch tiu tin cy ca 1 phn t, b phn hay

HT t cc thng s tin cy ca cc phn t nh hn. VD: tnh tin cy ca 1
phn s li in, da trn yu t tin cy ca cc phn t: ngun, TBA, Z...
Cc ch tiu tin cy gn lin vi tiu chun hon thnh nhim v (hng hc) do
ngi phn tch t ra.

i vi bi ton vn hnh:

nh gi tin cy nhm pht hin cc im yu trong h thng in, xc nh cc

phn t cn c tng cng p ng yu cu ph ti hin ti v tng lai.

i vi bi ton thit k v quy hoch:

nh gi tin cy nhm xc nh mc u t xy dng h thng in.

Vic u t qu mc dn n chi ph u t, vn hnh v bo dng ln, ngc
li u t khng dn n cht lng in nng khng m bo v chi ph thit
hi do mt in tng.

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

15

2. TIN CY CA CC PHN T
Cc

ch s tin cy ca phn t
M hnh tin cy ca tp hp cc phn t
M hnh h thng ngun in
Xy dng xc sut trng thi ca h thng
ngun in

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

16

 tin cy ca phn t

Vng i ca mt phn t trong HT c th biu din bi m hnh n gin c

2 trng thi trong mt qu trnh lp vn hnh bo dng.
Trn c s m hnh ny, thng s c trng l cng hng hc v phc hi
ca phn t.
Cng hng hc: s ln hng hc trung bnh/n v thi gian - (t).

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

17

Cng hng hc

Vi phn t khng phc hi (ch lm vic n ln hng u tin): cng

hng hc l xc sut phn t phc v n thi im t s hng
trong khong t->0 tip theo (thi im k tip).

Vi phn t phc hi, cc b phn sau khi bo dng nh k c tin

cy tr v gi tr ban u. Khi xt khong thi gian di, cc phn t phc
hi c th xem nh (t) l hng s v bng tb tnh ton tin cy.

Thng k: = m/(N.T)
m s ln hng quan st c, N s phn t cng loi c quan st, T tng thi
gian quan st.

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Phn tch tin cy

18

Ch tiu tin cy ca phn t

Cng hng hc (Unit failure rate) -

Thi gian lm vic trung bnh (Average working time) - T0 = 1/.

Thi gian sa cha trung bnh (Average repair time) 0

0 = i /m (i - i lng ngu nhin).

Cng phc hi (Unit repair rate) =1/ 0

sn sng (Avaibilty) p
p = T0/(T0+0) = /( +)

khng sn sng (Unavaibility) q

q = 1 - p = 0/(T0+0) = /( +)

sn sng c xt n thi gian bo dng (h s s dng):

p = T0/(T0+0+bq)

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Phn tch tin cy

19

VD1. M hnh tin cy ca MF

My pht l mt phn t in hnh ca h thng in c p dng m hnh 2 trng

thi. Xc sut hng hc ca my pht l khng sn sng q, trn l thuyt c th
biu din qua cng hng hc v cng phc hi
q = /( +)

Trn c s thng k trong thi gian lu, khng sn sng ca my pht c th

o bng thi gian ngng my cng bc ghi nhn c forced outage rate (FOR)
FOR = thi gian dng my s c/(thi gian lm vic + thi gian dng my)

Nu c nhiu trng thi lm vic vi cng sut kh pht khc nhau ca mt phn
t, cc trng thi b sung c th c quy i v trng thi tiu chun.

VD: mt my pht c 3 trng thi: full power of duration t1, failure of t2, and power
down 40% of t3. Trng thi th 3 c th quy i thnh trng thi hng hon ton
(100% down) nh sau: t3 converted = 40%t3 = t3.

Equivalent FOR (EFOR):

EFOR = (t2+t3)/(t1+t2+t3)

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

20

VD2. thng s tin cy ca L

Cng hng hc/ngng in k hoch ca Z ti in:

in p (kV)
Phn t
500

220

110

35

6-10

<1

0,4/10

0,6/13

1,1/15

1,4/9

4/10

20/12

L kp (1)

0,5

0,9

1,1

L kp (2)

0,1

0,2

0,3
1,5

Z TK
L n

Z cp
MBA

0,04/6,3

0,04/6,3

0,04/6,3

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0,04/6,3

Phn tch tin cy

0,04/6,3

21

Thng s tin cy ca L

Thi gian phc hi s c trung bnh:

in p (kV)
Phn t
500

220

110

35

6-10

<1

15

11

10

11

Z L kp (1)

1,7

3,5

Z L kp (2)

35

26

22
1,5

Z L n

Z cp
MBA (ko dt)
MBA (c dt)

2628

700

525

394

219

175

87

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

61

22

Thng s tin cy ca L

Thi gian ngng in k hoch nm cho Z v MBA (h):

in p (kV)
Phn t
500

220

110

35

6-10

<1

Z TK

105

61

44

35

30

MBA

87,6

74

66

53

18

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

23

Xy dng m hnh tin cy ca h thng

ngun in

Khi nim tin cy ca h thng ngun in c xy dng nhm mc

ch xem xt kh nng thiu cng sut ngun in do s c cc t my
pht hoc mt phn t truyn ti cng sut ngun.

M hnh gii quyt bi ton d tr cng sut t trong quy hoch pht
trin h thng in, lp k hoch vn hnh, bo dng cc nh my in,
xc nh cng sut d tr nng trong vn hnh.

Gi thit cc t my pht trong h thng c lp vi nhau, tc l hng hc

v phc hi ca cc t my khng nh hng ln nhau.

Cc phn t khc ca HT gi thit c tin cy bng 1 (cha xt nh

hng n tin cy chung).

Yu cu xc nh cc trng thi v xc sut xy ra cc trng thi ca

h thng nhiu ngun pht (lp bng xc sut trng thi gim cng sut
cung cp cho ph ti t h thng in do s c).

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

24

Xc sut trng thi ca HT

Mt h thng bao gm n phn t c lp l cc my pht in, trong n1

ang sn sng (tt) v n2 khng sn sng (hng).

Mi my pht c sn sng pj (j=1..n1) v khng sn sng qk

(k=1..n2).

Mi trng thi ca h thng c cng sut kh pht Gi = Gj v cng sut b

gim l GRi

Khi Gi v GRi l gi tr ngu nhin vi xc sut xy ra:

P(G=Gi) = pj.qk

Trn thc t, c nhiu trng thi (tnh hung ngu nhin) vi to ra cng
mt gi tr cng sut, v th c th t hp thnh mt trng thi c trng
bi cng sut kh pht v xc sut xy ra l tng xc sut ca mi tnh
hung ngu nhin n l.

Phn b xc sut ca cc gi tr cng sut kh pht ca HT thng

thng c xy dng thnh bng xc sut trng thi cng sut ca
HT.
25

Xc nh xc sut trng thi

Xt mt h thng in gm 3 phn t pht cng sut. Cng sut

kh pht ca t my 1 l 50 MW, t my 2 v 3 u l 30 MW. T
l thi gian dng my cng bc ca cc t my l 0,02.
Bng xc sut trng thi ca HT gm 3 phn t c xy dng
nh sau:
States

Gi, MW

GRi, MW

Pi

Pi cumulative

110

0,941192

1,000000

80

30

0,038416

0,058808

60

50

0,019208

0,020392

50

60

0,000392

0,001184

30

80

0,000784

0,000792

110

0,000008

0,000008
26

Quy i xc sut trng thi

Cc HT ln nhiu phn t c th c hng trm trng thi v mc cng sut khc nhau.

Quy i trng thi: n gin ha m hnh bng cch chuyn thnh bng xc sut trng thi
chun c bc gim cng sut ging nhau.

Phng php: Gi thit cn chuyn v bng xc sut trng thi chun c bc thay i l b MW.
Mi trng thi khng tiu chun c quy v 2 trng thi tiu chun k bn theo s phn chia
xc sut t l nghch vi khong cch:
P(k.b) = [(k+1).b-Gi].Pi/b
P[(k+1).b] = (Gi-k.b).Pi/b

States

Gi, MW

GRi, MW

Pi

Pi cumulative

150

0,9565584

1,0000000

100

50

0,0428848

0,0434416

50

100

0,0005552

0,0005568

150

0,0000016

0,0000016
27

3. tin cy ca h thng in v
li h thng
Xc

sut thiu cng sut v k vng thiu ht in

nng
Minh ha tnh ton LOLP v LOLE ca h thng in
p dng cc ch s tin cy cho bi ton quy hoch
pht trin ngun in
Phn loi v nh gi mc d tr cng sut trong
h thng in
D tr nng lng trong h thng in

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

28

Xc sut thiu cng sut (LOLP)

Ph ti s b ct in khi nhu cu tiu th vt qu kh nng phc

v ca h thng in ti mt thi im vn hnh.

Xc sut tng cho kh nng nhu cu tiu th ca ph ti khng th

c m bo bi h thng in c gi l Loss-of-Load
Probability hay LOLP.

LOLP c th c xc nh trn c s bng xc sut trng thi

ca h thng v th ph ti ko di.

M hnh LOLP c th c p dng cho bi ton quy hoch pht

trin h thng in khi tch hp cc chng loi phn t vi dung
lng khc nhau, nh hng ca quy trnh bo dng n tin
cy cung cp in, kh nng ti ca h thng hp nht v cc yu
t khc.

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

29

nh gi LOLP ca h thng in

Tnh theo xc sut trng thi ngun:

LOLP LOLPi Pi (G G i ).P(L G i )

Tnh theo xc sut trng thi ph ti:

LOLP LOLPi Pi (L L i ).P(G L i )

Thi gian mt in trung bnh nm LOLE = LOLP365

Tn sut mt in trung bnh (LOLF) = 1/LOLE

tin cy ca h thng in P = 1-LOLP

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

30

V d: nh gi d tr cng sut
trong HT

Tnh ton LOLP v LOLE, p dng vo HT ang pht trin gi

tin cy trong phm vi cho php.

Bi ton n gin: HT c 5 t my 40MW, q = 0,01.

1.

Xc nh LOLP, LOLE, khi ph ti bin i t 64MW n 160MW

trong nm (R=40MW)

2.

Xc nh quan h gia R=0-100MW v tin cy khi CS t khng

i.

3.

Nu ph ti tng 10%/nm, CS t my thm vo l 50MW vi

q=0,01. Lp k hoch pht trin HT trong nhng nm ti LOLE
trong khong cho php (0,1-0,2).

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

31

D tr cng sut trong HT

Cc

khi nim v thut ng:

Cng sut t (tng cng sut nh mc cc ngun

in): G
Cng sut kh dng (khng xt n cc t my bo
dng): GU
Tng d tr cng sut ca h thng:
R = Installed capacity Peak demand
D tr vn hnh:
RO = Usable capacity - Demand

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

32

Quan h gia tin cy v d tr

cng sut
Pmax

200

190

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

LOLE

6,083

4,834

3,446

1,895

0,150

0,120

0,087

0,047

0,002

0,001

0,000

LOLF

0,16

0,21

0,29

0,53

6,65

8,29

11,53

21,03

548

670

913

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

33

Quy hoch pht trin ngun in

Yu cu bo m tin cy:
LOLE 0,15

CS ph ti d bo ti nm th t:
Lt = L0(1+10/100)t

Nm

200

200

Pmax

160

LOLE

0,15

250

250

250

176

176

193,6

2,9

0,058

0,11

300

300

300

213

213

234,3

0,73

0,011

0,11

H Ni - 2014

350

350

350

400

257,4

257,4

283,1

311,4

311,4

0,55

0,009

0,125

0,96

Phn tch tin cy

34

nh gi tin cy c xt n bo
dng nh k.

Cng sut t my ngng bo dng nh k c a vo th ph ti:

a.
b.

Bo dng nh k tin hnh c nm

Bo dng nh k tin hnh khi ph ti thp

Chia thi gian kho st thnh cc chu k trong nm vi s t my lm vic khng i (

tr i cc t my bo dng), tnh XS thiu CS cho tng chu k v tng hp cho c nm
Vi HT ln c CS t my nh so vi ph ti max, c th b qua bo dng nh k hoc
xt n trong sn sng ca t my.

H Ni - 2014

Phn tch tin cy

35

D tr cng sut ca HT (1)

Cng sut t ca h thng tng cng sut nh mc ca tt c cc

ngun in hin c trong h thng in: Gt=Gm

Cng sut kh pht tng cng sut c th pht c ca tt c cc

ngun in hin c trong h thng in. Gkp

Cng sut kh dng tng cng sut c th t ti ca cc my pht

ang vn hnh ti mt thi im vn hnh no trong nm (khng tnh
cc t my bo dng). Gkd

Tng d tr cng sut ca h thng in hiu gia cng tng cng sut
t v ph ti cc i nm: R = G Lmax

Cng sut d tr t do l hiu gia cng sut kh pht ca h thng v

ph ti ti mt thi im bt k no : Rtd = Gkp L

Cng sut d tr vn hnh Rvh phn cng sut d tr t do c th s

dng c trong mt tnh hung vn hnh c th, tc l c tnh n s
li in v gii hn kh nng ti ca cc phn t, nh vy Rvh Rtd

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Phn tch tin cy

36

D tr cng sut ca HT (2)

37

Phn loi d tr cng sut

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Phn tch tin cy

38

Phn loi d tr cng sut (2)

D tr ph ti: lng cng sut d phng s tng bt ng v ngu nhin ca ph ti, c gi tr

t 1-4% ph ti max.

D tr s c: hiu gia cng sut kh dng ca h thng v ph ti cc i nm (T). CS d tr

s c cn thit b vo cng sut thiu ht do s c ngu nhin cc t my pht in hoc
ng dy thuc li h thng, gi tr thng khong 4-8% ph ti max.

D tr thao tc: tng d tr ph ti v d tr s c.

D tr bo dng: hiu gia cng sut kh pht ca ngun in v cng sut kh dng thi
im cc i nm, thay th cho cc t my phi ngng lm vic do bo dng, sa cha
nh k. Gi tr vo khong t 1,5-7% ph ti max.

D tr cng ngh: lng CS b cho s thiu ht CSF ca ngun in do thiu nc thy

in v cc s c k thut nhit in hoc than xu (thuc v cng ngh pht in).
D tr k thut l tng 3 loi d tr CS trn, ph thuc quy m cng sut v TC ca cc my
pht trong h thng. Cc t my CS ln v tin cy thp s lm tng dung lng d tr k
thut, sao cho TC chung ca HT c m bo.

D tr kinh t l s vt trc ca cng sut ngun so vi ph ti ti a do tnh n tng

ph ti do pht trin kinh t, thng khong 1-2%.

Tng d tr CS trong h thng c gi tr t 10-20% ph ti max theo quy m HT.

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D tr cng sut s c

Tnh theo yu cu tin cy cho trc: c th c cho di dng k

vng s ngy thiu in trung bnh nm LOLE (tiu chun quc t 0.1~0,2
ngy/nm) hoc tin cy P (Lin X 0,9964; Ty u 0,99975). Khi
cng sut d tr s c tnh ton tng ln n khi tin cy nhn c
t yu cu.

Lp bi ton ti u theo iu kin li ch thu c (gim thit hi kinh t

do mt in) ln hn chi ph cho d tr cng sut. Yu cu xc nh tn
tht kinh t do thiu cng sut v chi ph tnh ton cho d tr cng sut
trong cng mt khong thi gian.

Tnh theo kinh nghim: CS d tr s c c chn bng cch ly theo

phn trm ca ph ti cc i nm (khong t 5~15%) kt hp vi cng
sut t my ln nht. Nhc im: khng so snh c cc phng n
pht trin h thng in khc nhau nh chn cng sut t my, tnh thi
im a t my vo vn hnh v cng sut t cn thit cng nh tc
ng ca phng thc iu khin, vn hnh

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Cng sut d tr bo dng

Bo dng nh: bo dng, sa cha thng xuyn (thng ca nhit in), ly theo t l
phn trm cng sut pht khi ph ti max cho tng loi t my (3-7%).

Bo dng ln: d tr bo dng nh k (i tu) cho tt c cc t my, c xc nh chung

cho c h thng.Thi gian cn thit bo dng cho tng loi t my:

Vi t my thy in: 15 ngy.

Vi t my nhit in: ty theo cng sut t my (50~1200MW) t 18~36 ngy.

Vi nh my in nguyn t: 45 ngy.

Yu cu xc nh in nng cn thit phi d tr bo dng cc t my trong HT.

Bo dng nh k thng c tin hnh khi h thng vn hnh non ti. Cn so snh in
nng d tr vi th ph ti c th tin hnh i tu t my li dng thi gian ph ti thp
trong nm.
Rbd = (Gitbdi Abd.K)/365
Trong :

Ni cng sut t my i, MW.

Abd din tch bo dng, Abd = (Lmax - Li)Ti

K - h s s dng din tch bo dng, K=0,9~0,95

Tbdi thi gian cn thit bo dng t my i.

Nu Rbd 0 th khng cn d tr bo dng.

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nh gi d tr bo dng

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Cng sut d tr vn hnh

Khi nim Rvh: HT c n t my vi CS kh pht Nkpi. Ti mt thi im hoc trong

mt khong thi gian vn hnh c th c n1 t my ang lm vic, cc t my khc
c bo dng nh k hoc sa cha s c (khng th lm vic hay khi ng),
n1<n. Ph ti max trong khong thi gian xem xt l L, CS d tr vn hnh ca h
thng l Rvh = n1Nkpi L

Trong Rvh c th tn ti trong c 2 loi Rq d tr quay (nng) v RL d tr

lnh:
Rvh = Rq + RL
D tr quay l lng cng sut d ca cc my pht ang lm vic, c trang b iu chnh
tc t ng, nhng mang ti nh hn cng sut kh pht . Cng sut d c th s
dng tc thi nh b iu tc b vo s thiu ht cng sut do s c my pht hoc s
tng vt ca ph ti.
D tr lnh l phn cng sut ca cc t my c th lm vic c nhng ang ngh khng
vn hnh. Khi cn pht cng sut i hi thi gian khi ng. Trong thi gian khi
ng v nhn ti (ha ng b) vi cc t my l khc nhau.

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Bi ton xc nh CS d tr nng

Nu CS d tr vn hnh dng d tr nng th tin cy ca HT s cao, tc l gim thiu

nguy c thiu cng sut cho ph ti (LOLP thp). Tuy nhin do cc t my khi u phi
tham gia vn hnh v mang ti thp (non ti), chi ph kinh t s l rt ln.

Mt phn CS d tr c t di dng nng, phn cn li s l d tr lnh. Khi c s c s

dng cng sut d tr nng b lng cng sut thiu ht, ng thi khi ng cc t my
d tr lnh.

Nguy c ri ro vi d tr lnh: nu trong thi gian khi ng cc t my d tr lnh (T k) xy ra

s c cc t my ang vn hnh khc, s dn n nguy c phi ct ph ti. Trong d tr
lnh s dng cc loi t my c thi gian khi ng v nhn ti khc nhau, cc t my c thi
gian khi ng ngn cng c chi ph kinh t cao hn.

Bi ton KTKT: tng dung lng CS d tr nng s gim ri ro thiu cng sut cho ph ti
(gim LOLP) nhng li lm tng chi ph kinh t.

2 phng php xc nh CS d tr nng:

Phng php kinh nghim: quy nh lng CS d tr nng theo t l nht nh ca cng sut ti v khng
nh hn CS t my ln nht ang vn hnh.

Phng php xc nh ri ro theo xc sut trng thi ca h thng ang vn hnh, t xc nh cng
sut d tr nng ri ro t mc yu cu.

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Bi ton d tr nng lng

Ch t ra vi h thng hn hp T-N, trong t vn d tr nng lng do cng sut pht ca T trong

mt thi gian nht nh c th quy sang nng lng tch tr di dng nc trong h cha.

CS d tr c th c t di 2 dng: cc t my T v cc t my N. t my T c th d phng cng

sut phi c nng lng d phng di dng nc trong h cha, c ngha l lng nc c cp pht cho
mt khong thi gian phi c tnh thm cho d tr vn hnh.

Nu t d tr CS ch N s khng c vn d tr nng lng, do gi thit nng lng s cp ca N

khng hn ch. Tuy nhin d tr cng sut dng N tn km hn so vi T. Nh vy ti u l mt phn d
tr vn hnh c t di dng T.

Khi khng c d tr nng lng c th hng ngy di dng nc, vn tn ti d tr nng lng hng nm
ca T do lng nc d tr vn c th c tch li mi khi CS ca T khng c s dng theo k hoch,
bao gm cc trng hp:

Khi 1 t my N ang d tr CS c a vo vn hnh v l do no thay th cho T. Khi nng lng dnh

cho T c a sang dng d tr (ngoi k hoch).

Khi 1 t my T b s c v phn cng sut thiu ht c b p khi a t my N vo vn hnh. Nng lng d

tr c tnh bng cng sut ca N v thi gian thay th.

Khi 1 t my T b s c v khng c b CS. Ph ti mt in v chu thit hi. Tuy nhin phn nng lng d
c tnh bng cng sut ca T v thi gian mt in c chuyn thnh d tr.

Nh vy nng lng d tr c tnh bng cng sut ca T d ra ngoi k hoch trong khong thi gian
khng c s dng. Ton b nng lng tch tr c tnh l phn d tr nng lng cho T.

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4. Tiu chun v phng php

nghin cu tin cy
Cc

cch tip cn nghin cu tin cy

Cch tip cn tin nh

Cch tip cn xc sut
Cc

phng php nh gi tin cy

Phng php th gii tch

Phng php khng gian trng thi
Phng php cy hng hc
Phng php Monte Carlo

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Cch tip cn nh gi tin cy

Cch tip cn tin nh:

Tiu ch tin nh thng dng nht l tiu ch N-m, m = 1, 2, 3
Tiu ch N-m yu cu HT c thit k sao cho m bo cung cp in cho khch
hng trong trng hp s c hoc sa cha m phn t ca HT.
Tiu ch ny thng c xc nh theo iu kin ph ti ln nht ca HT.

u im:
Khi lng tnh ton t.
Thng tin r rng, d s dng cho cc yu cu vn hnh.
Thun tin p dng cho thit k li in truyn ti.

Nhc im:
Kh nng cho thng tin nh lng thp, kh p dng nh gi so snh kinh t k
thut cc phng n nng cao tin cy.
Li in truyn ti thit k theo tiu ch ny thng khng c s dng ht cng
sut tr mt s giai on ph ti cao (% nh) phn ln vn hnh trong iu kin non
ti.
Cc gi thit s c a ra ph thuc yu t ch quan, c th khng bao qut ht cc
trng hp s c nguy him nht.

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VD. Tiu ch N-m

A Khng c s c; B Mt 1 phn t; C Mt nhiu phn t

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Cch tip cn nh gi tin cy (2)

Cch tip cn xc sut

Nhm cc phng php gii tch
Phng php th - gii tch
Phng php khng gian trng thi
Phng php cy hng hc

Nhm cc phng php m phng

Phng php m phng Monte Carlo theo trnh t thi gian
Phng php m phng Monte Carlo khng theo trnh t thi gian

u im
L trng hp tng qut so vi cch tip cn tin nh. Xt n nhiu
trng hp hn so vi cch tip cn tin nh.
C kh nng nh gi nh lng, d p dng trong cc bi ton so
snh nh gi hiu qu kinh t.

Nhc im
Xy dng m hnh phc tp, khi lng tnh ton ln.
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Phng php th gii tch

Khi

nim:

Phng php lp s tin cy v p dng gii tch bng i s v l thuyt

xc sut tp hp tnh ton cc ch s TC. Trng thi tt ca h thng l
trng thi trong c t nht mt ng ni t nt pht n nt ti.

im:

Thch hp vi cc HT c cu trc n gin, hiu qu trong vic phn tch nh

gi tin cy ca li phn phi hoc h thng khng phc hi.

Nhc

im:

i vi HT c cu trc phc tp, vic xy dng s tin cy, tnh ton ng

tr cc phn t h thng thnh cc phn t tng ng gp nhiu kh khn.
S tin cy ch lp c vi gi thit phn t ch c hai trng thi hng/tt.

Phm

vi ng dng:

S dng vi HT c cu trc n gin.

Thng c p dng i vi li in phn phi.

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Phng php khng gian trng thi

Khi nim:
Phng php din t h thng bi cc trng thi hot ng v kh nng chuyn gia cc
trng thi .
Trng thi h thng c xc nh bi t hp trng thi ca cc phn t, s thay i trng
thi phn t lm HT chuyn sang trng thi mi, to thnh khng gian trng thi.

u im:
C th xt phn t c nhiu trng thi khc nhau.

Nhc im:
Khi lng tnh ton ln, nh gi phc tp khi xt y thng tin HT, kh p dng vi
HT quy m qu ln.
Phi p dng cc gi thit gn ng thch hp.

Phm vi p dng:
Phng php khng gian trng thi c th s dng trong nh gi tin cy h thng
ngun in v li HT.
Phng php khng gian trng thi phi hp vi phng php th gii tch p dng hiu
qu cho bi ton nh gi tin cy li in.

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Phng php cy hng hc

Khi nim:
Xy dng s (cy) m t quan h logic gia cc phn t v b phn ca h thng thng
qua quan h nhn qu gia cc dng hng hc trong h thng.
C s cui cng nh gi l hng hc c bn ca phn t, mi cy hng hc c
thnh lp cho mt s kin nh l hng hc ca h thng ang kho st.

u im:
Qu trnh lp cy hng hc gip pht hin cc hng hc v cc im yu nht ca h thng.
Cho php nhn dng v nh gi cht lng h thng thng qua hnh nh v nguyn nhn,
cch thc xy ra hng hc v hnh vi h thng.

Nhc im:
Vic thnh lp cy hng hc i hi nhiu thi gian phn tch.
Yu cu hiu bit v chc nng v hot ng ca mi phn t v nh hng ca ni n
h thng kho st.
Ch nh gi c vi gi thit phn t c hai trng thi hng/tt.

Phm vi p dng:
Thch hp vi bi ton nh gi tin cy ca nh my in.

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Phng php m phng Monte Carlo

Khi nim:
M phng hot ng ca cc phn t nh mt qu trnh ngu nhin.
To ra hot ng ca phn t v h thng mt cch nhn to, s dng phng php
thng k rt ra kt lun v tin cy.

u im:
Trong trng hp thng s u vo v tin cy ca cc phn t bin thin trong
mt min no vi hm phn b cho trc, c th s dng phng php Monte
Carlo nh gi.
nh gi nh lng c phn b xc sut ca cc ch s tin cy cn tnh ton.
C th nh gi c nh hng ca cc yu t khc nhau nh hng ti tin cy
v hiu qu ca bin php nng cao tin cy.

Nhc im:
Khi lng tnh ton ln, dn n thi gian tnh ton ln.

Phm vi p dng:
C th p dng cho h thng in phc tp quy m ln vi thng s bt nh
C th p dng trong mi trng hp nu gii quyt c vn lin quan n thi
gian tnh ton.

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5. tin cy ca li truyn ti v
li phn phi

tin cy ca li truyn ti
tin cy ca li phn phi
Minh ha tnh ton tin cy ca li in

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 tin cy ca li truyn ti

Xt trng hp n gin vi ng dy mch n, ph ti c th mt

in trong hai tnh hung:
Ngng in bo dng nh k.
S c mt trong cc phn t ni tip ca ng dy.
Thng

s li in:

ng dy: chiu di L, Z0, TSCZ.

My bin p: BA, TSCBA.
My ct: MC, TSCMC.

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Ngng in bo dng nh k

Bo dng nh k c lp k hoch thc hin ng thi trn cc phn t.

Chu k bo dng ca phn t Tki, chu k bo dng ng dy TK, s ln bo

dng m, thoi gian bo dng Tbi:
BD = m/TK,

TB = Tbi/m

Phn t

TBi trong nm
1

TKi

i tu
MC1

250

250

250

200

BA

385

MC2

100

100

Tiu tu
MC1

63

63

12

12

12

BA

12

12

12

MC2

25

25

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12

12

12

12

25

25

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Ngng in s c

Tnh ton vi gi thit cc s c khng xp chng.

ng dy c th ngng in do:
S c ng dy, thi gian TN = TZ
S c my bin p
S c 1 trong 1 my ct

S ln ngng in
SC = Z + BA + MC

Tng thi gian ngng in

TNSC = TZ + TBA + TMC

Xc sut ngng in
Q = TN/8760

in nng mt:
A = Q.Pmax.Tmax = TN.Pmax.Tmax/8760
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ng dy l kp

Gi thit 2 l c thng s k thut nh nhau, c kh nng cung cp in cho ton

b ph ti.

Xc xut ngng in ca mi l:
QN1=QN2=(TNSC+TNBD)/8760

Xc xut mt in cho ph ti:

QN=QN1QN2= (TNSC+TNBD)2/87602=(2TNSCTNBD+T2NBD)/87602

Trng hp 2 l trn 1 ct hoc t gn nhau vi Q l xc sut s c c iu kin;

Xc sut ngng in do s c ph thuc l:
QN=QN1QN2= (2TNSCTNBD+T2NBD)/87602+2(Q..TSC)/8760

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 tin cy ca li phn phi

i vi LPP, cn lp s ng tr li in, ng dng phng php th gii tch.

Trong LPP khng phn on (a), hng hc bt k ch no cng gy mt in ton b li.

Khi ngng cp in cng tc cng gy mt in cho tt c khch hng. Nh vy ton LPP c
th xem nh l mt phn t v mt tin cy.
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Li phn phi khng phn on

Cng hng hc ton li phn phi :

SC = o .L /100

Cng ngng in tng:

N = SC + CT

Thi gian ngng in do s c trong mt nm:

TNSC = SC .TSC
TSC - thi gian sa cha s c

Thi gian ngng in cng tc:

TNCT = CT .TCT
TCT - thi gian trung bnh mt ln ngng in cng tc.

Tng thi gian ngng in:

TN = TNSC + TNCT

Cng sut v thi gian s dng cng sut ln nht:

Pmax = nPmaxi

Tmax = (PmaxiTmaxi)/Pmaxi

in nng mt do ngng in:

A = TN.Pmax.Tmax/8760

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Li phn phi phn on

tng cng tin cy, LPP c chia lm nhiu on bng thit b ng ct c th l dao
cch ly hoc my ct.

Trong trng hp phn on bng DCL, khi xy ra s c mt phn on th ph ti phn

on s c v cc phn on pha sau (tnh t pha ngun) b mt in trong thi gian sa
cha. Ph ti nm trn phn on trc s c v pha ngun th ch mt in trong thi gian
thao tc c lp phn t s c.

Trong trng hp phn on bng MC, khi mt phn t b s c MC phn on u phn t

s c s ct v c lp phn t s c, cc phn t nm trc phn t s c khng b nh
hng.

Gii php phn on tng ng k tin cy ca LPP, gim tn tht kinh t do mt in nhng
cn phi u t vn. Do phn on l mt bi ton ti u, trong cn tm s lng, v tr
t v loi thit b phn on s dng sao cho c hiu qu kinh t cao nht.

tnh ton tin cy ca LPP c phn on, cn ng tr cc on li thnh phn t ch c

mt ph ti vi cc thng s tin cy ng tr c xc nh ring.

Cc on li sau chu nh hng ton phn ca on li trc, cn cc on li pha

trc chu nh hng khng ton phn ca cc on li sau, mc nh hng ph thuc
thit b phn on (MC hoc DCL).

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Li phn phi phn on (2)

1.

on li I: c th b ngng in do bn thn b s c hoc do nh hng ca s c trn

on li sau. Cng ngng in l I v thi gian ngng in nm l TI.

Nu dng my ct in th on II hon ton khng nh hng n on I, do :

II>I = 0 ; TII>I = 0

Nu dng dao cch ly, th s c on II lm ngng in on I trong thi gian thao tc c lp

s c Ttt:
II>I = 'II ; TII>I = Ttt

Tng s ln ngng in v thi gian ngng in ca on I l:

I = 'I + II>I ; TI = T'I + TII>I

2.

on li II: c th ngng in do s c bn thn hoc do nh hng bi s c cc on

ng trc (on I). Cng hng hc do s c bn thn 'II v thi gian ngng in nm
T'II.

nh hng ca on I ln on II l ton phn khng ph thuc vo thit b phn on, ngha

l on II chu cng hng hc v thi gian ngng in ca on I:
I>II = 'I ; TI>II = T'I

Tng s ln ngng in v tng thi gian mt in ca on II l:

II = 'II + I ; TII = T''II + TI

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Cc tiu chun tin cy hng ti

khch hng s dng in

Cc tiu chun tin cy s dng in thng dng c gii thiu

trong b tiu chun IEEE-P1366 bao gm:
System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI)
Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI)
System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI)
Customer Average Interruption Frequency Index (CAIFI)
Momentary Average Interruption Frequency Index (MAIFI)
Average Service Availability Index (ASAI)

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V d minh ha tnh ton tin cy

Tnh

ton tin cy ca li truyn ti

Tnh ton tin cy ca li phn phi
nh gi kinh t k thut cc phng n nng cao
tin cy ca li in
nh gi tin cy trong li in c ngun in phn
tn

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