Journal of the Transportation Research Board

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD

NO.

1718

Activity Pattern
Analysis and Exploration
Travel Behavior Analysis and Modeling
Planning and Administration
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CONTENTS
Foreword

Identifying Decision Structures Underlying Activity Patterns: An Exploration of Data Mining Algorithms
Geert Wets, Koen Vanhoof, Theo Arentze, and Harry Timmermans

Conjoint-Based Model of Activity Engagement, Timing, Scheduling, and Stop Pattern Formation
Donggen Wang and Harry Timmermans

Stochastic Frontier Models of Prism Vertices

Ryuichi Kitamura, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Keiko Kishizawa, and Ram M. Pendyala

Modeling Learning and Evolutionary Adaptation Processes in Activity Settings:

Theory and Numerical Simulations
Harry Timmermans, Theo Arentze, and C. H. Joh

Coast-to-Coast Comparison of Time Use and Activity Patterns

Sachin Gangrade, Krishnan Kasturirangan, and Ram M. Pendyala

Activity-Travel Patterns of Nonworkers in the San Francisco Bay Area: Exploratory Analysis
Rajul Misra and Chandra Bhat

Dynamic Analysis of Traveler Attitudes and Perceptions Using Panel Data

Sridhar Sunkanapalli, Ram M. Pendyala, and Arun R. Kuppam

Mixed Generalized Linear Model for Estimating Household Trip Production

Chang-Jen Lan and Patricia S. Hu

Determinants of Distance Thresholds for Driving

Tommy Grling, Ole Boe, and Reginald G. Golledge

Are Travel Times and Distances to Work Greater for Residents of Poor Urban Neighborhoods?
Asad J. Khattak, Virginie J. Amerlynck, and Roberto G. Quercia

Car Ownership in Great Britain: Panel Data Analysis

Mark Hanly and Joyce M. Dargay

Period Effects and Cohort Effects in Life Cycles: Preliminary Analysis

John T. Marker, Jr.

Evaluating the Effects of Traveler and Trip Characteristics on Trip Chaining, with Implications for
Transportation Demand Management Strategies
Brett Wallace, Jennifer Barnes, and G. Scott Rutherford

Transportation Research Record 1718

ISSN 0361-1981
ISBN 0-309-06697-2
Subscriber Category
IA planning and administration
Printed in the United States of America
Sponsorship of Transportation Research Record 1718
GROUP 1TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS PLANNING AND ADMINISTRATION
Michael S. Bronzini, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, George Mason University (Chairman)
Transportation Forecasting, Data, and Economics Section
Gordon A. Shunk, Texas Transportation Institute (Chairman)
Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values
Konstadinos G. Goulias, Pennsylvania State University (Chairman), Jeffrey Adler, Julian M. Benjamin, Chandra R. Bhat,
Jin-Hyuk Chung, Thomas F. Golob, David T. Hartgen, Peter M. Jones, Nelly Kalfs, Ryuichi Kitamura, Lidia P. Kostyniuk,
Parviz A. Koushki, June Ma, Hani S. Mahmassani, Patricia L. Mokhtarian, Ram M. Pendyala, Panos D. Prevedouros,
Frank Southworth, Peter R. Stopher, Mary Lynn Tischer, Kenneth Vaughn, Simon P. Washington, Edward Weiner,
Chester G. Wilmot
Transportation Research Board Staff
James A. Scott, Transportation Planner
Freda R. Morgan, Administrative Assistant
The organizational units, officers, and members are as of December 31, 1999.

FOREWORD
The papers contained in this volume were among those presented at the 79th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research
Board in January 2000. Nearly 1,600 papers were submitted by authors; more than 1,000 were presented at the meeting; and
approximately 600 were accepted for publication in the 2000 Transportation Research Record series. The published papers will
also be issued on CD-ROM, which will be available for purchase in late 2000. It should be noted that the preprint CD-ROM
distributed at the 2000 meeting contains unedited, draft versions of presented papers, whereas the papers published in the
2000 Records include author revisions made in response to review comments.
Starting with the 1999 volumes, the title of the Record series has included Journal of the Transportation Research Board to
reflect more accurately the nature of this publication series and the peer-review process conducted in the acceptance of papers
for publication. Each paper published in this volume was peer reviewed by members of the sponsoring committee listed on
page ii. Additional information about the Transportation Research Record series and the peer-review process can be found on
the inside front cover. The Transportation Research Board appreciates the interest shown by authors in offering their papers and
looks forward to future submissions.

Identifying Decision Structures

Underlying Activity Patterns
An Exploration of Data Mining Algorithms
Geert Wets, Koen Vanhoof, Theo Arentze, and Harry Timmermans
G. Wets and K. Vanhoof, Data Analysis and Modeling Group, Faculty of Applied Economic Sciences, University of Limburg,
Universitaire Campus, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium. T. Arentze and H. Timmermans, Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University
of Technology, P.O. Box 513, Mail Station 20, 5600 MB, Eindhoven, Netherlands.

FULL
TEXT

The utility-maximizing frameworkin particular, the logit modelis the dominantly used framework
in transportation demand modeling. Computational process modeling has been introduced as an
alternative approach to deal with the complexity of activity-based models of travel demand. Current
rule-based systems, however, lack a methodology to derive rules from data. The relevance and
performance of data-mining algorithms that potentially can provide the required methodology are
explored. In particular, the C4 algorithm is applied to derive a decision tree for transport mode choice
in the context of activity scheduling from a large activity diary data set. The algorithm is compared
with both an alternative method of inducing decision trees (CHAID) and a logit model on the basis of
goodness-of-fit on the same data set. The ratio of correctly predicted cases of a holdout sample is almost
identical for the three methods. This suggests that for data sets of comparable complexity, the accuracy
of predictions does not provide grounds for either rejecting or choosing the C4 method. However, the
method may have advantages related to robustness. Future research is required to determine the ability
of decision treebased models in predicting behavioral change.

Conjoint-Based Model of Activity

Engagement, Timing, Scheduling, and
Stop Pattern Formation
Donggen Wang and Harry Timmermans
D. Wang, Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Kowloon, Hong Kong. H. Timmermans,
Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven University of Technology, P.O. Box 513, HG5.25, 5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands.

FULL
TEXT

Although stated preference or conjoint-based models have recently found ample application in the
transportation literature, there have been no attempts to use this modeling approach to develop an
activity-based model of transport demand. The development of such a model, called COBRA, is
discussed. The model examines individuals choices on activity engagement, scheduling, and stop
pattern formation. The model is calibrated using experimental design data collected to examine the
potential effects of several policies recently proposed in the Netherlands. The modeling results indicate
that although people prefer activity schedules involving fewer home-based tours, they do not prefer
the combination of all individual trips into a single home-based tour. Furthermore, it is found that
individuals will change their activity engagement patterns only if government policies induce substantial
changes in individuals time availability.

Stochastic Frontier Models of

Prism Vertices
Ryuichi Kitamura, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, Keiko Kishizawa, and
Ram M. Pendyala
R. Kitamura, T. Yamamoto, and K. Kishizawa, Department of Civil Engineering Systems, Kyoto University, Sakyo-ku,
Kyoto 606-8501, Japan. R. M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida,
4202 East Fowler Avenue, ENB 118, Tampa, FL 33620-5350.

FULL
TEXT

A methodology to estimate the location and size of space-time prisms that govern individuals activity
and travel is presented. Because the vertices of a prism are unobservable, stochastic frontier models are
formulated to locate prism vertices along the time axis using observable trip starting or ending times
as the dependent variable and commute characteristics, personal and household attributes, and area
characteristics as explanatory variables. Models are estimated successfully with coherent behavioral
indications. A mean difference of 1.46 h is found between the observed trip ending time and the
expected location of the terminal vertex for workers evening prisms. The estimation results aid in
enhancing the understanding of prism constraints by identifying the determinants of prism vertex
locations.

Modeling Learning and Evolutionary

Adaptation Processes in Activity Settings
Theory and Numerical Simulations
Harry Timmermans, Theo Arentze, and C. H. Joh
Eindhoven University of Technology, Urban Planning Group, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB, Eindhoven, Netherlands.

FULL
TEXT

The development of a conceptual framework to build a model of multifaceted choices underlying

activity behavior is described. The conceptual framework views individuals developing stereotype
behavior or scripts over time by learning. Various principles of learning as a function of statedependent variables and as a function of latent behavior and adjustment principles are developed
and formalized. The focus is on modeling long-term dynamics in activity choice heuristics. Theory,
illustrated by a set of numerical experiments, is developed.

Coast-to-Coast Comparison of
Time Use and Activity Patterns
Sachin Gangrade, Krishnan Kasturirangan, and Ram M. Pendyala
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB 118, 4202 East Fowler Avenue,
Tampa, FL 33620-5350.

FULL
TEXT

Activity-based travel analysis has been gaining increasing attention in travel demand research during
the past decade. Activity and trip information collected at the person level aids in understanding the
underlying behavioral patterns of individuals and the interactions among their activities and trips.
Activity and time use patterns across geographical contexts are compared. Such a comparison could
shed light on the differences and similarities in travel behavior that exist between areas. To accomplish
this objective, activity, travel, and time use information derived from surveys conducted in the
San Francisco Bay and Miami areas has been analyzed to identify differences in activity engagement
patterns across different sample groups. In general, it was found that activity and time use patterns are
comparable across the two areas as long as the commuting status and demographic characteristics of
the individuals are controlled for. In addition, the time-of-day distributions of various events such as
wake-up time, sleeping time, time of departure and arrival at home, and work start and end times were
compared. These events were considered important in defining the temporal constraints under which
people exercise activity and travel choices. Once again, it was found that the distributions followed
similar trends as long as the commuting status and the demographic characteristics of the individual
were controlled for. However, there were noticeable differences that merit further investigation.

Activity-Travel Patterns of
Nonworkers in the San Francisco Bay Area
Exploratory Analysis
Rajul Misra and Chandra Bhat
Department of Civil Engineering, ECJ 6.810, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78712.

FULL
TEXT

Analysis of activity-travel patterns is an important component of any activity-based transportation

planning exercise. Most of the current activity-travel literature focuses on studying the characteristics
of workers. In comparison, little emphasis has been placed on studying nonworker activity-travel
patterns. The results of an exploratory analysis of the activity-travel patterns of nonworkers in the
San Francisco Bay Area are presented. The attributes of a nonworkers overall activity-travel pattern
are examined in terms of three dimensions: number of stops of each activity type, trip chaining, and
the temporal sequencing of activities. Implications for transportation planning and policy analysis
are discussed.

Dynamic Analysis of Traveler Attitudes and

Perceptions Using Panel Data
Sridhar Sunkanapalli, Ram M. Pendyala, and Arun R. Kuppam
S. Sunkanapalli and R. M. Pendyala, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, ENB 118,
4202 East Fowler Avenue, Tampa, FL 33620-5350. A. R. Kuppam, Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 1300 Clay Street,
Suite 1010, Oakland, CA 94612.

FULL
TEXT

A dynamic analysis of travelers attitudes, preferences, and values was carried out using three waves
of the Puget Sound Transportation Panel survey to investigate dynamics in traveler attitudes and
perceptions. An in-depth descriptive analysis was performed to examine the variations in attitudinal
ratings over time. A traditional one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) method was used to explore for
similarities and differences in traveler attitudinal ratings across different waves of the panel survey.
A similar analysis was performed on the stayer sample (i.e., the respondents who participated in all
three waves of the panel used in this study). The ANOVA results show significant differences in mean
attitudinal ratings across the three waves of the panel survey. The differences in traveler attitudes and
perceptions among stayers, dropouts (respondents who leave the panel survey), and refreshments
(respondents who are newly recruited as the panel survey proceeds) were also captured. Finally,
differences in traveler attitudes and preferences across different modal market segments were
examined. The results indicate the need for greater consideration of attitudinal dynamics in
transportation planning and policy analysis.

Mixed Generalized Linear Model for

Estimating Household Trip Production
Chang-Jen Lan and Patricia S. Hu
C.-J. Lan, Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, University of Miami, 1251 Memorial Drive,
325 McArthur, Miami, FL 33146. P. S. Hu, Center for Transportation Analysis, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Bldg. 3156,
MS-6073, Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6073.

FULL
TEXT

An innovative modeling framework to estimate household trip rates using 1995 Nationwide Personal
Transportation Survey data is presented. A generalized linear model with a mixture of negative
binomial probability distribution functions was developed on the basis of characteristics observed from
the empirical distribution of household daily trips. This model provides a more flexible framework and
a better model specification for analyzing household-specific trip production behavior. Compared with
traditional least squaresbased regression models, the parameter estimates from the proposed model
are more efficient. Although the mean accuracies from the two modeling approaches are comparable,
the mixed generalized linear model is more robust in identifying outliers due to its unsymmetric
prediction bounds derived from more correct model specification.

Determinants of Distance
Thresholds for Driving
Tommy Grling, Ole Boe, and Reginald G. Golledge
T. Grling and O. Boe, Department of Psychology, Gteborg University, P.O. Box 500, SE-40530 Gteborg, Sweden.
R. G. Golledge, Department of Geography, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106.

FULL
TEXT

The hypothesis that habitual drivers become averse to exerting physical effort by walking was tested.
In support of the hypothesis, distance thresholds for driving measured in a Swedish (n = 60) and a
U.S. sample (n = 51) of undergraduates decreased with driving habit. Respondents in the U.S. sample
were more frequent drivers and had a lower distance threshold than respondents in the Swedish
sample.

Are Travel Times and Distances to

Work Greater for Residents of
Poor Urban Neighborhoods?
Asad J. Khattak, Virginie J. Amerlynck, and Roberto G. Quercia
Department of City and Regional Planning, 3140 New East Building, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599.

FULL
TEXT

The commuting patterns of low-income urban residents are discussed. On the basis of the spatial
mismatch hypothesis, the question of whether central city low-income residents face an undue burden of
commuting cost (time and distance) to work compared with the rest of the population is examined. Data
from the 1995 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey were used in the analysis. Models explaining
travel time and distance to work are combined with a model explaining the probability of being
employed on the basis of individual and neighborhood characteristics, thus correcting for sample
selectivity. In general, it was found that urban residents are less likely to work than their suburban
counterparts. Among the people who work, residents of low-income urban neighborhoods commute
longer and farther than residents of low-income suburban neighborhoods. The average differences for
the residents of the lowest-income neighborhoods are only 6 min and 2 mi (3 km). On the basis of the
value of time, it is concluded that these national differences are not too large. The undue commute
burden faced by residents of low-income neighborhoods may be shown to be a greater problem in some
metropolitan areas than in others, suggesting further research at the metropolitan or regional level.

Car Ownership in Great Britain

Panel Data Analysis
Mark Hanly and Joyce M. Dargay
Economic and Social Research Council Transport Studies Unit, University College London, Gower Street,
London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom.

FULL
TEXT

The analysis of the factors determining changes in travel behavior on the individual (or individual
household) level requires information on the behavior of individuals over time. Such transport panel
surveys are rarely available, particularly for a sufficiently long time period to examine such changes
more than cursorily. For the United Kingdom, none exists for other than limited regions. However, the
ongoing British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), begun in 1991, provides some information related
to transportspecifically, household car ownershipas well as information on the economic and
sociodemographic characteristics of the households surveyed. BHPS data for 1993 to 1996 are used to
analyze car ownership and the factors determining car ownership decisions on an individual household
level. As far as is known, this has not yet been done in any systematic manner. The relationship between
car ownership, income, and sociodemographic factors such as household composition, residential
location, and population density (persons per hectare in the local authority district in which the
household resides) is investigated. Both descriptive statistical measures and formal modeling
approaches, based on dynamic discrete choice models and panel data econometric techniques, are used.

Period Effects and Cohort Effects in

Life Cycles
Preliminary Analysis
John T. Marker, Jr.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and The Pennsylvania Transportation Institute,
Pennsylvania State University, 201 Research Office Building, University Park, PA 16802.

FULL
TEXT

Travel behavioral data from five successive waves of the Puget Sound Transportation Panel were
examined to determine whether period effects or cohort effects have a significant effect in life-cycle
behavior. It was found that period and cohort effects may have a greater influence in household
life-cycle models than previously believed. The results bring into question current methods using
cross-sectional data analysis for life-cycle models, since predicted changes in activity behavior were
not observed in households that made life-cycle transitions. The results are not conclusive, since
other variables influencing activity behavior were not accounted for in the analysis.

Evaluating the Effects of Traveler and Trip

Characteristics on Trip Chaining, with
Implications for Transportation Demand
Management Strategies
Brett Wallace, Jennifer Barnes, and G. Scott Rutherford
B. Wallace, Wilbur Smith Associates, P.O. Box 92, Columbia, SC 29202-0092. J. Barnes and G. S. Rutherford,
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195-2700.

FULL
TEXT

The relative effect that each of a wide variety of factors has on the extent to which a traveler will chain
trips was investigated. The objectives were to empirically determine which factors influence a travelers
tendency to chain two or more trips within one tour, as well as the relative significance of these
considerations; to more specifically determine the level of influence that urban centers have on trip
chaining; and to evaluate the potential effects on trip-chaining behavior of specific transportation
demand management (TDM) strategies through examination of variables that describe effects
associated with TDM. A negative binomial regression model was developed in which the number of
trips in a chain is related to household characteristics, traveler characteristics, trip characteristics,
and urban form. After the model was estimated, the significance of individual variables was analyzed.
Characteristics from each of these categories were found to be statistically significant. A number of the
significant variables help to describe effects of specific TDM strategies, and the relative effects of these
variables on trip-chaining behavior were addressed. Some of the variables representing TDM strategies
increased the level of trip chaining, whereas other variables decreased the level of chaining. Potential
policy conflicts between trip chaining and specific TDM programs are discussed.