3.

Riser Probability of Failure (PoF)

Similar to pipeline, there are 3 main components in PoF scoring i.e. third party damage, inspection
results and design & operation. Dredging and reclamation barges and vessels is no longer the most
dominant PoF component for riser segments as no reclamation activities around FSRU area.
The components are as follow:

Third party damage

o

Vessel traffic (weighting 10%)

Riser guard (weighting 15%)

Sea patrol around FSRU (weighting 5%)

Markings around FSRU (weighting 5%)

Inspection results
o

Marine growth (weighting 15%)

ILI survey results (weighting 10 %)

CP survey results (weighting 10 %)

Free span (weighting 15%)

Design and operation

o

Location (above water, under water or splash zone) (weighting 10 %)

Pressure (weighting 5 %)

Based on detailed description from Risk Methodology Report, the summary of Riser PoF calculation is
shown in Table below.

Table Riser PoF Scoring Summary

Probability of Failure Scoring

Weighting
(%)

Vessel Traffic

10

No shipping
lane/traffic

Riser Guard

15

Riser guard
is intact

Thidr Party
Damage

Inspection
Results

Design and
Operation

3.6

2
Local
fishermen
shipping
lane

Score
3
Regional
fishermen
shipping
lane
Riser guard
is damaged/
coroded/
colided by
vessel

Sea Patrol
Regular Sea Irregular Sea
Stand By
Patrol to
Patrol to
Around
FSRU
FSRU
FSRU
Properly
Marking/
marked with
buoys in
buoys/
sight
markers

National
shipping
lane

International
shipping
lane

No riser
guard
available

Rare Sea
Patrol to
FSRU

No Sea
Patrol
Around
FSRU

No
markings/
buoys

Sea Patrol
Frequency
Around FSRU

Markings
Around FSRU

Marine Growth

15

0-10%

10-30%

30-50%

50-80%

>80% or
never
inspected

ILI Survey
Results

10

0-10%

10-30%

30-50%

50-80%

>80% or
never
inspected

(-1100) mV
more
to (-2000)
more
(-850) mV to
(-750) mV to negative
mV or (-800)
positive than
(-1100) mV
(-850) mV than (-2000)
mV to (-850)
(-750) mV
mV
mV
Free span
Free span 0 - Free span
Free span
75 - 100 %
25 %
25 - 50 %
50 - 75 %
No free span
or over the
allowable
allowable
allowable
allowable
span
span
span
span

CP Survey
Results

10

Free Span

15

Location

10

Above water

Underwater

Splash Zone

Operational to
Design
Pressure Ratio

0 - 30%

30 - 50%

50 - 70%

70 - 85%

> 85%

Consequence of Failure (CoF)

Consequence of failure (CoF) assessment shall consider the following components: