Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CNBC Fed Survey, June 14, 2016
CNBC Fed Survey, June 14, 2016
These survey results represent the opinions of 41 of the nations top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
FED SURVEY
They responded to CNBCs invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on June 9-11, 2016. Participants were not required to answer every question.
April 30,
10%
0%
0%
20%
0%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
100%
Don't know/unsure
30%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
50%
Uncertainty
surrounding
Brexit vote
13%
Global growth
concerns
15%
Markets
unprepared for
rate hike
5%
Other
Don't
know/unsure
18%
0%
Other:
60%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Jan 27
0%
Mar 15
20%
Apr 26
40%
Jun 14
60%
80%
88%
90%
94%
95%
10%
Lower interest rates
10%
4%
3%
0%
Move to negative interest rates
0%
0%
0%
3%
Launch new quantitative easing
0%
2%
3%
100%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
AprilMarch
30, 15 Survey
Jan 27 Survey
For
those
who
said:
Raise
interest
rates
(88%)
Lower
interest
rates
(10%)
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(3%)
Average
month:
For
those
who
said:
May
2016
Raise
interest
rates
(90%)
August
2016
Lower
interest
rates
(10%)
--
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
April
2016
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(0%)
Average
month:
For
those
who
said:
June
2016
Raise
interest
rates
(94%)
October
2016
Lower
interest
rates
(4%)
--
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
--
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(2%)
April 26 Survey
June 14 Survey
Average
month:
For
those
who
said:
Average
month:
August
2016
Raise
interest
rates
(95%)
Sept
2016
Sept
2016
Lower
interest
rates
(3%)
October
2016
--
Move to
negative
interest
rates
(0%)
--
Dec
2016
Launch
new
quant.
easing
(3%)
March
2017
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
2. How many times will the Federal Reserve hike rates this
year (2016)?
FED SURVEY
5.00
April 30,
4.50
4.00
3.50
2.8
3.00
2.50
2.1
1.9
2.00
1.6
1.5
Apr 26
Jun 14
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Dec 15 '15
Jan 26 '16
Mar 15
Survey Dates
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
Apr 26
Jun 14
April 30,
70%
61%
60%
56%
58%
50%
39%
40%
40%
37%
30%
20%
10%
5%
2%
3%
0%
Having no effect on
the economic outlook
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
A Democrat wins
April 30,
Doesn't matter
A Republican wins
Don't know/unsure
45%
40%
40%
37%
Republican Wins
35%
35%
Doesn't matter
30%
26%
30%
25%
24%
20%
18%
15%
16%
28%
23%
Democrat wins
15%
Don't know/unsure
10%
9%
5%
0%
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
April 30,
50%
45%
40%
30%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
60%
April 30,
50%
40%
38%
38%
30%
25%
20%
10%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
90%
80%
April 30,
80%
Apr 26
Jun 14
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
13%
15%
10%
7%
5%
0%
Clinton
Trump
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED
0% SURVEY
10%
April 30,
Will be
enacted
regardless of
who wins
20%
30%
40%
53%
Will be
enacted only
if Donald
Trump wins
Don't
know/unsure
33%
0%
3%
60%
13%
Won't be
enacted
regardless of
who wins
Will be
enacted only
if Hillary
Clinton wins
50%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
December 31, 2016
April 30,
2,350
2311
2,300
2296
2,250
2247
2293
2254
2259
2234
2223
2244
2200
2,200
2166
2,150
2158
2159
2114
2088
2140
2,100
2149
2107
2035
2,050
2,000
2000
1,950
1,900
1,850
1,800
Dec
16
Jan
27
'15
Jul
28
Sept
16
Oct
27
Survey Dates
Dec
15
Jan
15
'16
Jan
26
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
April 30,
4.0%
3.52%
3.5%
3.14%
3.0%
3.24%
3.17%
3.09%
3.04%
2.88%
2.89%
2.88%
2.83%
2.67% 2.67%
2.58%
2.54%
2.5%
2.51%
2.34%
2.11% 2.10%
2.0%
Dec
16
Jan
27
'15
Mar
17
Oct
27
Survey Dates
Dec
15
Jan
26
'16
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
April 30,
2.5%
2.17%
2.13%
1.99%
2.0%
2.04%
2.07%
1.93%
1.84%
1.75%
1.61% 1.62%
1.56%
1.5%
1.61%
1.60%
1.49%
1.41%
1.46%
1.43%
1.17%
1.0%
1.12%
0.88%
0.91% 0.90%
0.85%
0.78%
0.84%
0.74%
0.5%
0.0%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
10.
At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
SURVEY
terminalFED
rate?
April 30,
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.20%
3.16%
3.17%
3.11%
3.04%
3.06%
2.98%
3.0%
2.73%
2.85% 2.79%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65%
2.58%
2.5%
2.0%
Survey Dates
2.64%
2.56%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
11.
When do you believe fed funds will reach its
terminal rate?
FED SURVEY
Survey
Date
April
30,
Forecast
August 20 survey
Q4 2017
September 16 survey
Q3 2017
October 28 survey
Q4 2017
December 16 survey
Q1 2018
Q1 2018
March 17 survey
Q4 2017
April 28 survey
Q1 2018
June 16 survey
Q1 2018
July 28 survey
Q2 2018
August 25 survey
Q3 2018
September 16 survey
Q1 2018
October 27 survey
Q3 2018
December 15 survey
Q1 2018
Q2 2018
Mar 15 survey
Q3 2018
Apr 26 survey
Q4 2018
Jun 14 survey
Q4 2018
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
12.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
2016
2017
3.0%
+2.88%
+2.84%
+2.81%
+2.78%
2.8%
+2.80%
+2.70%
+2.64%
+2.60%
2.6%
+2.43%
2.4%
+2.45% +2.41%
+2.25%
+2.31%
2.2%
+2.17%
+2.21%
+2.14%
+2.05%
2.0%
+1.95%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec 16
Jan 27,
'15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 26
'16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
2016 +2.88% +2.80% +2.84% +2.81% +2.78% +2.70% +2.64% +2.60% +2.45% +2.17% +2.14% +1.95% +2.05%
2017
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
13.
What is your forecast for the year-over-year
percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for ?
FED SURVEY
April 30,
2016
2017
2.4%
2.17%
2.24%
2.20%
2.17%
2.2% 2.17%
2.07%2.08%
2.12%
2.13%
2.07%
2.0%
1.89%
1.96%
1.88%
1.75%
1.8%
1.75%
1.72%
1.66%
1.6%
1.50%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
Dec
16
Jan
27,
'15
Mar
17
April
28
Oct
27
Survey Dates
Dec
15
Jan
26
'16
Mar
15
Apr
26
Jun
14
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
14.
When do you expect the Fed to allow its balance
sheet to decline?
FED
0% SURVEY
10%
20%
April 30,
Jun '16
0%
Jul '16
0%
Aug '16
0%
Sep '16
0%
Nov '16
0%
Dec '16
8%
3%
5%
63%
5%
70%
0%
60%
10%
Mar '17
May '17
50%
5%
Jan '17
Apr '17
40%
3%
Oct '16
Feb '17
30%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
15.
What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.
economic recovery?
20%
15%
8%
4%
8%
5%
7%
10%
3%
12%
6%
31%
40%
0%
6%
3%
3%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
0%
0%
31%
28%
30%
27%
29%
32%
21%
23%
26%
29%
26%
18%
14%
13%
14%
11%
17%
21%
16%
8%
10%
10%
21%
22%
28%
20%
20%
22%
22%
24%
29%
30%
26%
21%
12%
29%
15%
14%
9%
0%
8%
3%
9%
2%
5%
5%
5%
3%
2%
5%
0%
3%
0%
2%
3%
2%
2%
3%
3%
6%
6%
3%
3%
0%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
2%
3%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
5%
5%
3%
3%
3%
6%
0%
6%
0%
0%
0%
4%
8%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
4%
3%
2%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
10%
18%
8%
15%
12%
5%
8%
12%
6%
10%
3%
6%
6%
6%
14%
12%
0%
8%
8%
0%
5%
0%
25%
18%
12%
11%
8%
14%
16%
8%
11%
25%
6%
8%
13%
10%
5%
5%
7%
0%
41%
28%
28%
22%
29%
45%
41%
44%
44%
33%
36%
28%
6%
17%
8%
6%
9%
8%
10%
5%
8%
5%
9%
8%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
13%
11%
13%
14%
7%
13%
2%
21%
18%
13%
12%
11%
8%
3%
16%
14%
19%
11%
9%
14%
5%
15%
23%
21%
11%
10%
Other responses:
Fear itself
Inadequate monetary stimulus as
reflected in weak nominal GDP
growth
Don't know/
unsure
Other
Protectionist trade
policies
Outcome of US
presidential election
Geopolitical risks
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Tax/
regulatory policies
Survey
Date
Apr 30
Jun 18
Jul 30
Sep 17
Oct 29
Dec 17
Jan 28 '14
Mar 18
Apr 28
Jul 29
Sep 16
Oct 28
Dec 16
Jan 27 '15
Mar 17
April 28
Jun 16
Jul 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Dec 15
Jan 26 '16
Mar 15
Apr 26
Jun 14
European recession/
financial crisis
April 30,
FED SURVEY
0%
0%
4%
2%
0%
2%
0%
0%
0%
3%
3%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
0%
0%
3%
0%
2%
0%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
16.
In the next 12 months, what percent probability do
you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0%=No
FED
SURVEY
chance of
recession,
100%=Certainty of recession)
April 30,
40%
36.1%
35%
34.0%
30%
28.8%
28.5%
26.0%
25%
25.9%
24.4%
23.5%
25.5%
22.9%
24.1%
22.1%
20%
20.6%
20.3%
20.4%
18.2%
19.1%
17.6%
21.1%
18.4%
18.6%
17.3%
16.9%
16.2%
16.4%
15.1%
16.9%
16.2%
15.3%
15.2%
15.0%
14.6%
15%
17.4%
15.1%
14.7%
13.6%
13.0%
10%
Survey Dates
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
17.
Which of the following is the best explanation of the
weak May jobs report?
FED SURVEY
60%
April 30,
55%
50%
40%
35%
30%
20%
10%
10%
0%
Don't know/unsure
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
18.
Which of the following factors do you believe is
depressing job growth now? (Select all that apply)
FED SURVEY
April 30,
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
70%
58%
40%
28%
Other
28%
15%
Election uncertainty
Don't know/unsure
60%
13%
0%
Other:
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
19.
Relative to an economy operating at full capacity,
what best describes your view of the amount of resource
SURVEY
slack in FED
the U.S.
right now for labor?
80%
April 30,
70%
Modestly more slack
60%
50%
40%
30%
Modestly less slack
20%
Considerably less slack
10%
0%
No difference
Jul 29
Jan 27
Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16
14
'15
Mar
Jun 14
Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28
17
'16
34%
20%
18%
16%
16%
13%
6%
5%
12%
10%
36%
40%
60%
69%
55%
50%
63%
64%
54%
47%
43%
No difference
4%
6%
3%
0%
0%
6%
11%
0%
15%
9%
15%
8%
11%
6%
5%
24%
19%
11%
22%
15%
24%
23%
4%
9%
9%
8%
5%
9%
3%
8%
10%
9%
10%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
No difference
10%
0%
Jul 29
Jan 27
Aug 20 Sep 16 Oct 28 Dec 16
'14
'15
Mar
Jun 14
Apr 28 Jun 16 Jul 28
17
'16
9%
8%
8%
8%
0%
14%
8%
10%
21%
20%
56%
60%
64%
64%
55%
59%
57%
57%
62%
38%
55%
No difference
8%
14%
8%
15%
13%
19%
14%
5%
8%
15%
10%
16%
9%
14%
8%
24%
13%
11%
19%
13%
21%
13%
4%
9%
3%
5%
0%
9%
5%
11%
8%
6%
3%
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
20.
When it comes to the effect on policy for each of the
following factors, do you believe the Federal Reserve
SURVEY
pays tooFED
much
attention, pays the right amount of
April
attention,
or 30,
doesn't pay enough attention?
Pays too much attention
100%
5%
10%
8%
90%
23%
80%
45%
70%
50%
60%
50%
40%
70%
30%
50%
40%
20%
10%
0%
Latest high-frequency
data, such as the most
recent jobs or
inflation report
Market reactions to
monetary policy
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
21.
When it comes to comparing the effect on policy
between now and 10 years ago for each of the following
SURVEY
factors, FED
do you
believe the Federal Reserve pays more
April
30,
attention
now,
the same amount of attention, or less
attention now?
Pays more attention now
100%
3%
5%
90%
25%
20%
75%
78%
Market reactions to
monetary policy
80%
43%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
53%
20%
10%
0%
Latest high-frequency
data, such as the most
recent jobs or
inflation report
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
22.
FED SURVEY
April 30,
Other
20%
Currencies
0%
Fixed
Income
10%
Economics
51%
Equities
20%
Comments:
Marshall Acuff, Silvercrest Asset Management: The Fed should
be economic data driven and let the markets respond accordingly.
Furthermore there continues to be too many Fed governors voicing
anticipatory opinions about future Fed actions before all the
economic data is reported in front of a pending Fed meeting.
Continuing such conduct could eventually jeopardize the credibility of
the Fed.
Jim Bianco, Bianco Research: Biggest Issue of the year is BRexit.
While I do not expect "leave" (the EU) to happen, if leave does
prevail, it is a game changer. It would mark the beginning of the
end of the EU/Euro and a dangerous rise in protectionist policies.
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
Rob Morgan, Sethi Financial Group: The weak May jobs report
takes a Fed hike off the table for the near term, and given the Fed's
propensity to FED
leave SURVEY
rates unchanged near a presidential election, we
April
30,
won't see a hike
until
December at the earliest.
Joel Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors: The Fed needs to stop
paying so close attention to current data and might even stop
indicating that they are data driven, as it too often refers to current
data.
James Paulsen, Wells Capital Management: Currently, yield
structures that are nearing zero or below about the world are
becoming the biggest fear generator for private economic players
and investors. Perhaps more than ever, the Fed could have more
positive influence on private sector players' confidence by showing
some real world economic leadership and following through with a
rate increase in July.
Lynn Reaser, Point Loma Nazarene University: "Data
dependent" policy can only work if current data is a good predictor of
the future. Unfortunately, it is not. The economy's performance in
six months may look nothing like today's data, which means that
monetary policy, which acts with a lag, may be significantly off
course.
John Roberts, Hilliard Lyons: Continued high levels of negative
campaigning between the two major party candidates are unlikely to
be positive for the markets. Hopefully we will get some more
positive rhetoric and specific policy proposals from the minor party
candidates!
Merrill Ross, Wunderlich: We still have to consider that sluggish
growth and the potential for deflation could be symptomatic of
secular and demographic changes that are very difficult to overcome,
and far beyond the influence of monetary policy.
CNBC Fed Survey June 14, 2016
Page 32 of 34
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016
FED SURVEY
June 14, 2016