Unit 3

Knowing What You Dont Know

The following is a word-for-word transcription of the lecture in the Adobe slide
presentation. The slide numbers here correspond to the slide numbers in the
slide presentation. Please note that the page numbers for this unit carry over
from the transcript of the previous unit.

Slide 1
Welcome to Unit Three. Unit Three is the continuation of the section on Reflective Thinking. Unit Two was about various biases that can trip us up. This
unit is about knowing what you dont know.
Slide 2
Specifically, Unit Three is about two things: one, its about learning to admit
ignorance; two, its about learning how to work around incomplete knowledge.
As much as wed like to think otherwise, we will never have complete knowledge. But even though we are stuck living in a world of uncertainty, we have
developed some fairly sophisticated ways of coping with uncertainty and risk.
It is incumbent upon us to learn how to reason in the face of risk, uncertainty
and incomplete information. By the end of this unit, you will have some very
concrete strategies for overcoming and dealing with states of ignorance that we
can find ourselves in. But it all starts with us admitting ignorance.
Slide 3
Now at this point youre probably asking yourself, why would I admit ignorance?
In the first place, isnt ignorance a bad thing? And two, arent I putting myself
at a disadvantage if I publicly admit that I am ignorant?
So what is ignorance? Ignorance is a state. If we are in a state of ignorance,
we lack the requisite knowledge or we do not have the relevant information. And
in this sense, admitting ignorance isnt necessarily a bad thing. It is simply a
description of a state that we are in. So where did the negative connotations
come from? When we call someone ignorant, we can mean one of two things.
On the one hand we can use the word descriptively, in which case we are simply
claiming that the person in question lacks the requisite knowledge. So when I
say that, I know very little about string theory, I am describing something
about my state of knowledge. On the other hand, we might use the word to
make a value judgment; in which case we are implying that the person in question is uneducated or unsophisticated. So when my physicist friend says in a
pejorative tone, Ya... Greg knows very little about string theory, she is implicitly criticizing my lack of knowledge. So we must be absolutely clear. It is

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one thing to describe a particular state. It is entirely another thing to make a

value judgment about that state.
Slide 4
So what, if anything, is wrong with being in a state of ignorance?
Socrates famously claimed that the unexamined life is not worth living. Now
what did he mean? As I stated in the second unit, very few of our beliefs are the
result of explicit reasoning and argumentation. Most of our beliefs are unreflective. In fact, many of our beliefs escape any form of critical analysis whatsoever.
Socrates recognized this and was unsettled by it, and he devoted his life to not
only understanding what he believed, but understanding why he believed what
he believed. What Socrates was after was justification for his beliefs.
Slide 5
So thats Socrates answer to the question, Whats wrong with ignorance? Because truth, clarity and understanding are more desirable goals. Ignorance is
ubiquitous and this was intolerable in Socrates view. For Socrates, it was better
to challenge the status quo and question the common sense view than to remain
in a state of ignorance. But this is very idealistic. What other answers are there?
Slide 6
John Stewart Mill, a British intellectual from the nineteenth century wrote:
It is better to be a human being dissatisfied than a pig satisfied;
better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a fool satisfied. And if the
fool, or the pig, are a different opinion, it is because they only know
their own side of the question. The other party to the comparison
knows both sides.
What was Mills point? Well for Mill, the goal of every human being is happiness. We all pursue happiness. So the obvious question is, How do we attain
happiness?
Slide 7
For Mill, we attain happiness in part by pursuing intellectual pleasures. For
Mill, intellectual pursuits will bring more pleasure, more happiness. So why
should you take the time and spend the effort to learn calculus, probability,
statistics? Mill would say that youre better off for doing so. You may feel
stress and frustration in the short run, but youll be better off in the grand
scheme of things.
Now it is tempting to think that Mill has overstated his case. Take the characters of Homer Simpson and Peter Griffin for instance: they are unprincipled,

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undisciplined, ignorant, slaves to their animal passions and yet they seem quite
happy. Yes we are talking about cartoon characters, but its not too difficult to
find human analogs. Mills point is that the pleasures of the Homer Simpsons
and the Peter Griffins of the world seek, are fleeting. They have not attained
true happiness and I think you agree: that you are in school, that you are
committed to a degree in engineering and that youre willing to do the work to
become an engineer, suggests to me that you agree with Mill, if only in action.
But you may think that this answer islike the firsttoo idealistic.
Slide 8
So heres a third answer. It is not in your rational self interest to remain in a
state of ignorance once youve realized that youre in a state of ignorance. This
is a very pragmatic answer. Whats the problem with ignorance? It will get in
your way. It will prevent you from achieving your goals as a professional.
Slide 9
Yes, this is an explicit appeal to your self-interest, but if your goal is to get the
Iron Ring, youre going to have to do what it takes to get that ring. So why
have you chosen to study engineering? Well we can make this more general.
Why does anyone choose to go to university? Well if were being honest, well
say its to get a degree. Why is a degree so important? Well, because were
told, it will help to secure a good job. And if were lucky, itll be a job that we
like doing, that were good at, that challenges us, that we find fulfilling. And
of course, ultimately, what were looking for is financial security. Of course, the
iron ring means much more than this.
Slide 10
But the point is this, if your goal is to get the iron ring, it is not in your rational
self interest to remain in a state of ignorance once youve realized that youre
in a state of ignorance. This leads us to a crucial distinction. It is one thing to
be in a state of ignorance, it is an entirely different thing to realize that you are
in a state of ignorance.
Slide 11
We can make this distinction explicit by using a Jahari window. When it comes
to knowledge, we either know something or we dont know it. So going back to
Mister Fowlers story as an example, we either know what structural steel design
tables are or we dont. But not only can we have knowledge about things like
structural steel, catwalks, bridges, buildings, engineering, mathematics, physics,
astronomy, history, philosophy, psychology or whatever. If we are sufficiently
self aware, we can have knowledge about knowledge. If you know something
and you know that you know it, then what you have is explicit knowledge.

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Slide 12
What is explicit knowledge? Well if you have explicit knowledge about a
subject, youll be able to articulate what you know about that subject. If you
have explicit knowledge, youll be able to teach and explain what you know to
other people. Youll be able to answer questions and apply what you know to
novel contexts. And youll be able to state what follows as a matter of logical
consequence. In short, explicit knowledge should be our goal, and its the type
of thing that a good university education will provide you with. And the more
you learn about engineering and the particular industry you find yourself in,
the more valuable youll be to have around.
Slide 13
But not only can we know that we know, we can also know that we dont know
something. In which case we are ignorant, but we are aware of our ignorance.
Again, this isnt necessarily a bad thing; its simply a descriptive statement of
fact. So for example, I dont know how to build a toaster. Put all the parts
in front of me and I would just stare at the pile of parts. And I know that I
dont know how to build a toaster. Its not that Im proud of my ignorance, its
just that Ive never had the need to learn. Thats the nice thing about having
money in a free market economy. If my toaster breaks I can pay somebody else
to build one for me. Or go back to the catwalk example given by Mister Fowler.
Mister Fowler knew that he didnt know anything about structural steel design
tables; of course thats the sort of thing that you need to know if youre going
to build a catwalk, but since he knew what he didnt know, he knew what he
needed to learn to get the job done. The point is, its not that ignorance is a
bad thing per say, its what you do once you realize that youre in a state of
ignorance that matters.
Now this is where it gets interesting. Is it possible to not know that you
know something? Now on first blush, this seems like a paradoxical question,
but I think it makes sense if we make the distinction between explicit propositional knowledge and practical knowledge. If we make this distinction,
then the answer is yes. You can know something but not know that you know
it. Its just that what you have is practical knowledge.
Slide 14
What is practical knowledge? Well its an ability to do something. Like
walking, riding a bike, whistling, tying your shoes. In some cases you might not
be able to articulate what you know. Take my father for example. My father
can play pretty much any song on the piano by ear. Put sheet music in front of
him and hes completely lost. Hum the tune for him and he can pick it up and
play it immediately. Ive asked him, Dad how do you do that? To which he
responds, I dont know, I just can. He knows how to play the piano, but he

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cant explain his ability.

And in some cases, you might not even be aware that you have a particular
ability. I think swimming is the most obvious example. Ask me if I know how
to swim and Ill say, I dont know. Ive never tried. To find out if I can swim, all
youd have to do is to get me into the pool somehow. And its quite likely that I
have the ability to stay afloat and propel myself through the water. Swimming
is a natural ability that many mammals, including humans, have. And its an
excellent example of having an ability but not knowing that you have the ability.
Slide 15
The last quadrant represents a state where we dont know something and we
dont know that we dont know. In which case we are ignorant, but we are unaware that we are ignorant. Now in some sense, this is the state that humankind
has found itself in over and over again. Before the invention of the telescope,
did we know that there were moons orbiting Jupiter? No. Did we know that
we didnt know? No. But Galileos discovery fundamentally altered our view of
the cosmos. People didnt know any better before Galileos discovery, but now
that we know that the Sun is the centre of our solar system, wed have very
little patience for someone who still believed that everything revolves around us.
Before Einstein, did anyone know anything about relativity? No. Did we know
that we didnt know? No. But again, this discovery fundamentally changed
our view of the universe. Before the science of genetics took form, did we know
anything about DNA? Well no. And we didnt know that we didnt know. But
our new formed understanding has changed the way we approach the diagnosis
and treatment of diseases. Again, the point is, ignorance isnt necessarily a bad
thing. Its what we do once we realize that we dont know. Its what we do
once we realize that we dont know, that matters.
Slide 16
So how can we free ourselves from a state of being ignorant about our ignorance?
Well, there are a couple of things that we can do. First, always question the
assumptions of the status quo. And more often than not, these assumptions
will be well hidden from us. Why? Because it is very easy to fall prey to an
interpretive bias at this point. The beliefs that we have and share with other
people, will be so obviously true to us that we seldom think to question them.
For example, to the ancient astronomers, it was so painfully obvious that the
Sun, the moon and the stars revolved around the earth, that it was folly to think
otherwise. So how do we escape this trap? Well, never stop asking questions,
especially the obvious questions. The best way to defeat an interpretive bias
is to step back and ask ourselves the obvious questions. More often than not,
when we ask the obvious questions, we quickly realize that we know less than
we thought we did. But once we understand what were ignorant about, we can
take steps to educate ourselves.
Another thing you can do is read, study and continually learn. The longer

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you stay in school and the more you learn, the more youre realize how little
you know. This shouldnt discourage you. If you foster an insatiable desire to
learn new things and increase your knowledge, you will become an incredibly
valuable asset to have around.
The last strategy is to not over-estimate your intelligence or abilities. I want
to draw your attention to the paper by Justin Kruger and David Dunning that
was alluded to in the Second Unit. The paper is titled Unskilled and Unaware
of it: How Difficulties in Recognizing Ones Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated
Self-Assessments. Kruger and Dunning begin their paper by telling the story
of one McArthur Wheeler, who robbed two banks in broad daylight but took
no visible steps to disguise his face. Police, with the help of the surveillance
tapes from the banks, quickly found Mister Wheeler and arrested him. Mister
Wheeler expressed surprise at the polices ability to find him so quickly. It turns
out that Mister Wheeler believed that his face would be invisible to the video
cameras, if he wiped lemon juice on his face. But before we dismiss this as an
extreme case, lets be absolutely clear about what happened: Mr. Wheeler had
a particular belief; he overestimated the degree to which his belief was correct;
he acted on that belief...and he failed miserably. There is no evidence to suggest
that Mister Wheeler stepped back to question whether his belief was correct,
and he certainly didnt think of what the consequences would be if his belief was
wrong. He was trapped by an overestimation of his competence and abilities.
But he was wrong and was oblivious to the fact that he was wrong.
And if were not careful, we can easily fall into the same trap. We might
not do something as dumb as Mister Wheeler, but we can fall into the same
type of trap. If we are convinced that we are knowledgeable and informed, but
overestimate our competence and abilities, we will quickly become intolerable to
our friends and co-workers. Worse yet, we will become unteachable. I mean, if
we know everything there is to know, then theres nothing to learn, right? And
at this point we will be of no use to our employer. Going back to the example
of Mister Fowler and the catwalk, had Mister Fowler been oblivious to the fact
that he didnt know anything about structural steel design tables, he would have
been in a much worse position. Why? Because if he didnt know that he didnt
know, he would have felt no motivation or no need to learn what he needed to
know in order to get the job done. And I dare say that the relationship between
he and his boss would not have turned out the way that it did.
Slide 17
So far weve been focussing on the bottom right quadrant, the state where we
dont know that we dont know. And weve just considered some strategies that
will help liberate us from this state of ignorance.
But what about the top right quadrant, the state where we know that we
dont know? Well in some sense, this is the preferable state of ignorance. For
when we wrap our heads around what we dont know, it is much easier to see
what we need to do to get to the first quadrant, the state where we have explicit
knowledge. So once we realize that we dont know, how can we work around

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this state of ignorance? Well there are a couple strategies that we can take.
The first strategy is to re-phrase and re-frame the question or problem that
youre working on. Break the problem down into discreet parts. Dont just
focus on the big picture, break the problem down into smaller problems. But
be sure to strike a balance between the big picture and the discreet parts. Dont
focus on one to the exclusion of the other. Again, ask the obvious questions.
Sometimes the best solution is right in front of us. Dont pre-judge solutions.
Ask yourself, What would an ideal answer or solution look like? Regardless
of cost or feasibility, what would the best answer or solution to the problem
be? What would the simplest and easiest answer or solution look like? Dont
be constrained by conventions or fears of budgetary overruns and dont stop
looking. Put all of the options on the table and dont pre-judge them before
youve analyzed them. And lastly, consult the experts. Youre not in this alone.
A lot of smart people have gone before you. Make use of their knowledge, insight
and experience.
A second thing you can do is to think of analogous situations. Dont just
focus on finding solutions to the particular problem that youre working on.
Keep an open mind and take a cue from solutions to analogous problems.
And dont demand certainty. Give up on the idea that we can have certain
and complete information. The future cannot be known to us and there is a
level of risk in everything that we do. So we must learn how to manage risk and
make the best decisions that we can, given what we know now. This involves
identifying risk, evaluating the likelihood of occurrence of said risk, and taking
the appropriate steps to manage and minimize the risks.
Slide 18
Consider the story of Archimedes and the Crown of Gold. The story comes to
us in the writings of Marcus Vitruvius Polio. Archimedes was an early Greek
mathematician, astronomer and engineer, who lived in the third century Before
the Common Era. As the story goes the king of Syracuse wanted a gold crown
to be made, and he commissioned a goldsmith to do the work. He gave the
goldsmith a set weight of gold and the goldsmith produced an exquisite piece
of work. The finished crown was weighed to ensure that it met that set weight
of gold. However, it was later charged that the goldsmith had kept out some of
the gold and had substituted silver in its place.
The king gave Archimedes the task of determining whether the crown was
made of pure gold or not. Well, what are the possible ways to find out? The
obvious test for us is an acid test. Use Nitric Acid. Silver is soluble in Nitric
Acid, gold is not. So if the crown was made of pure gold, the crown would not
have been altered in any way. But this was thousands of years before the time of
chemistry as we know it, so it wasnt a live option for them. Well you could look
for discolouration. Discolouration would imply impurity, however the converse
would not hold. We could not conclude that the crown was made of pure gold
if there was no discolouration. Or alternatively, you could test with a magnet.
Magnetism would imply the presence of other metals, but silver, like gold, isnt

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magnetic so that would not help in this case. You could melt it down. Of course,
that would produce the desired answer, but it would destroy the crown. So its
not a live option either.
So what was Archimedes solution? Archimedes solution was novel: test the
density of the crown. But he didnt come up with this solution by just sitting
and staring at the crown. The solution came to him while he was taking a bath.
He noticed that as he lowered his body into the water, that the water was displaced. Now to us, this solution is painfully obvious. But thats because were
taught about density and water displacement early on in school. But remember, this was more than two thousand years ago and they still firmly believed
that the earth was the center of the cosmos. The point is that Archimedes did
not arrive at his solution directly. Rather, Archimedes saw the solution to his
problem in an analogous situation.
Slide 19
Lets say youre a doctor and one of your patients has an inoperable malignant
tumour, and they will die if the tumor is not destroyed. The tumor can be
destroyed by a type of ray, if the rays reach the tumour at a sufficiently high
intensity. But at such high intensities, the rays will also destroy any healthy
tissue it passes through. You can lower the intensity of the rays, thus saving
the surrounding tissue, but they wont destroy the tumor at such low intensities
either. Your patients life is in your hands. How would you treat your patient?
While youre thinking about that, consider this thought experiment.
Slide 20
Lets say youre a general and want to lay siege to a castle. Lets assume your
cause is just: an evil dictator lives in the castle. There is a wide main road
leading to the castles gate. Youre confident that you can defeat the castles
defences if your entire army reaches the city en masse. Your current plan is
to march your entire army up the main road to the castles gate. But then
youre informed by one of your scouts that the evil dictator has rigged the main
road in front of the city with explosives. The explosives are set to go off under heavy loads. So a small group of soldiers could cross the road, but the
rig would explode if a large army tried to cross. Hence, a large scale attack
along the main road is impossible. But your scout also tells you that there are
many smaller roads and trails leading to the city. Although you cant send you
army all at once, in one large group, you figure you could divide your army
into smaller groups and send them along the smaller roads and trails. If you
time the assault correctly, your army will arrive at the walls of the city en masse.
Slide 21
Now I dare say you know what to do with your patient. It may not be possible
to use one powerful ray, but if you send multiple, less intense rays from different

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angles and time it just right, the combined intensity at the focal point may in
fact destroy the tumour. Theres never certainty in anything we do, but its
worth a try.
So whats the point? If youre stuck on a problem, dont fixate on it. Think
of analogous situations where there are known solutions. Dont be trapped by
the particular context of the problem. Analogies can be found in all areas of
life. So unleash your creativity. Dont treat this as a license to waste time
daydreaming, but dont shy away from being creative.
Slide 22
You are in your first work term of your first year of university. Youve no doubt
learned a lot during your time at school and youre no doubt learning a lot
about what it means to be a part of the engineering community. The more
you learn, the more you know. But keep in mind that no one knows everything
there is to know. There is just too much to know and too little time to learn it.
Ignorance in some sense, is ubiquitous. However, its what we do once we realize
were in a state of ignorance that matters. And with a good dose of intellectual
honesty, initiative and willingness to learn, you can get to the place where you
have explicit knowledge. Its not easy, but its worth it. The more you know,
the more valuable you are to your colleagues and your employer.

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