Table of Contents

1.

Demand analysis.................................................................................................................2

2.

Background and situational Analysis..................................................................................6

2.1

3.

Type of Background Information................................................................................7

Rapid demand assessment method.....................................................................................7

3.1

Route maps..................................................................................................................8

3.2

Traffic counts...............................................................................................................9

3.3

Occupancy surveys....................................................................................................11

3.4

Recording the data.....................................................................................................12

3.5

City-wide counts........................................................................................................13

3.6

Implications of demand results..................................................................................14

3.7

Counts of private vehicles.........................................................................................16

3.8

Mapping congestion points and vehicle speeds.........................................................18

4.

Detailed demand estimate without modelling..................................................................20

5.

Estimating demand with a public transport model...........................................................23

6.

5.1

Choosing a modelling software.................................................................................23

5.2

Defining the study area and the zoning system.........................................................23

5.3

Origin-destination survey and matrix........................................................................23

5.4

Origin-destination survey and matrix........................................................................23

Estimating demand using a full traffic model...................................................................23

6.1

Overview...................................................................................................................23

6.2

Additional data needs................................................................................................23

6.3

Detailed modelling for BRT......................................................................................23

6.4

Assessment of the feasibility of the system...............................................................23

1.

Demand analysis

The essence of mathematics is not to make simple things complicated, but to make
complicated things simple.
S. Gudder, mathematician
The analysis of the potential passenger demand for the planned BRT system is the technical
foundation for most of the subsequent planning design work. Demand estimates are critical to
designing the system, planning operations, and predicting the financial viability of the
system. Knowing where and when customers require transport services will help to shape a
system based first on customer needs. Often, decision-makers will want to put a new BRT
system on a wide road or a ring road where there is plenty of space, but where there is little or
no demand. Other times, decision-makers will choose BRT corridors for political reasons,
like putting one BRT corridor in each district, regardless of the relative importance of the
corridor to riders, or locating the BRT system where its benefits would accrue to politically
powerful people. While such factors will inevitably be a part of the decision-making process,
BRT planners need to do their best to argue for a system that serves the most passengers in
the best way possible. This requires proposing not only a single corridor, but eventually a
network of BRT routes. If the system does not form a network, ridership will be a fraction of
its potential.

First, the system needs to be designed with enough capacity to handle a reasonable estimate
of projected future demand while maintaining high vehicle speeds. This projected future
demand should start with an analysis of existing public transport demand, and then expanded
with reasonable expectations about passenger growth. To be conservative, the system needs

to be designed with plenty of extra capacity, so from a design perspective, it is better to err on
the side of over-estimating future passengers.

Demand estimates can be fairly approximate at first, but the sooner the demand estimate can
be made accurate, the better the design. If the system is designed with more capacity than it
needs, it will be needlessly expensive and consume a needless amount of scarce right of way
that might otherwise be used for footpaths, bikeways, public space, parking or private
vehicles.

Alternatively, if capacity is too low, transit vehicles will be overcrowded, and the vehicle
speeds might even be slower than current speeds even at very low levels of ridership, and
thus alienating passengers. Any of these mistakes will significantly compromise the quality of
service and the profitability of the system.

The demand estimate is also needed for optimizing operations. Maybe a BRT system will
keep the bus routes the same, but maybe the system would be much more profitable if they
are significantly changed. Demand estimates will provide lots of information critical to
optimizing BRT service operations.

Finally, the demand estimate is critical for financial projections. For this, the demand
estimates have to err on the conservative side, to be credible to banks and investors. The
critical factor is that the banks and investors trust the estimates, and for this the greater the
accuracy of the projection, and the more methodologically credible, the better.

When developing demand estimates, there is a trade-off between cost, accuracy, and timing.
A detailed full demand modelling exercise will produce more accurate results, but developing
a full traffic model can be time consuming and expensive. Planners often do not have the time
or resources to build an entire model all at once. Rapid assessment techniques can produce
acceptable accuracy fast and at a low cost. Partial modelling, of only the public transport
system rather than the entire traffic system, will provide a better estimate of projected
demand, while providing useful information for all sorts of operational issues.

A full four-step traffic model will provide more accuracy, more robust estimates of traffic
impacts, and better projections of possible modal shift, but cost more and take more time.
While the authority responsible for developing the BRT system should develop over time the
capacity to do full multi-modal transport demand modelling, if this capacity does not already
exist, it is unlikely that it can be developed at the same time that the agency is engaged in a
politically time-bound BRT planning process.
In most developing countries, time and money are usually restricted at first, and local
modelling capacity is limited. In such circumstances, it is better to develop the modelling
capacity of the agency step by step, over time, so that the local partners learn how to collect
and use the information, and so the design team will at least have at least some preliminary
information about demand in a timely manner to influence critical early decisions.
Curitibas BRT system was designed without any formal traffic modelling, so it can be done.
However, Curitiba made certain design mistakes that compromised the systems efficiency,
and which local leaders in Curitiba now regret. With todays modelling tools available, there
is no excuse for repeating costly mistakes.
This chapter therefore outlines a step-by-step approach that provides gradually better demand
analysis as the process evolves. The topics to be presented in this chapter include:

a) Background and situational analysis

b) Rapid demand assessment
c) Estimating demand without modelling
d) Estimating demand with a public transport model
e) Estimating demand with a full traffic model

Section a) discusses about the basic demographic, economic, environmental, employment,

and political information often collected prior to a full demand analysis.
Section b) discusses a rapid demand assessment.
Rapid demand assessment will provide an approximate idea of likely BRT demand on major
corridors using only traffic counts and occupancy surveys in key locations, accompanied by
some bus speed surveys. With this information alone, a skilled BRT planner may be able to
come to a demand estimate within 20 percent of the actual demand upon completion of the
system.
Section c) discusses a methodology for estimating demand without modelling.
In cities where there is a clearly defined bus route structure, and the buses are reasonably well
regulated, and routes reasonably well optimized, there is a way to estimate demand without
modelling with reasonable accuracy. This estimation technique requires a very accurate set of
route itineraries and boarding and alighting data from surveys at all the key stops.
Section d) then explains how to develop a basic public transport model.
The public transport model simulates only the public transport system, and requires in
addition a passenger origin and destination survey. With a basic public transport model, most
critical decisions about the BRT system and many critical operational decisions can be made,
but where impacts of the system on mixed traffic and on modal shift can only be roughly

estimated. Most BRT planners, including the team that designed Trans Milenio, primarily
used such a public transport model.
Finally, section e) discusses the basics of developing a multi-modal traffic demand model for
BRT. Such a model will provide full flexibility for testing multiple routing and pricing
scenarios, a more robust estimate of plausible modal shift, emissions impacts, bus route
optimization, and a host of other useful tools.

2.

Background and situational Analysis

You think that because you understand ONE you understand TWO, because one and one
makes two. But you must understand AND.
Sufi proverb

A citys public transit system is intimately woven into the existing demographic, economic,
environmental, social, and political conditions. Understanding these conditions enables the
BRT planner to better align the prospective public transit system with the local realities.
Some of these data items will later be inputted into transportation models to project future
needs. Other portions of this background information will help the planner view the proposed
public transit system in its wider socio-economic context.
For instance, by understanding the major employment areas of the city, one can better project
the location and times of the day when public transport will be required. Further, the relative
economic purchasing power of the citys inhabitants will later assist in developing a realistic
tariff schedule. Demographic figures on population, population densities and future
population projections will be key inputs into the transportation modelling process. Trends in
environmental conditions will help to determine the sorts of air quality and noise objectives
that the BRT system can help to achieve. Quantifying the social equity levels throughout the
city may assist in recognizing the districts that will most benefit from improved public transit

services. Finally, mapping out the various political actors and the dates of upcoming elections
can help establish realistic project timeframes. It is often difficult to gain political support for
BRT initiatives if elections are relatively soon.
However, if a political administration feels that there is sufficient time to demonstrate a
tangible outcome, then the prospects for political commitment tend to be greater.

2.1Type of Background Information

The type of background information to be collected can thus include:

Population, population density;

Overall economic activity (Gross Regional Product);

Economic activity by social groupings;

Employment levels (unemployment and underemployment);

Environmental conditions;

Social equity levels;

Schedule of local, regional, and national elections.

These bigger picture issues can often shape a project in ways that a strict demand analysis
cannot begin to encapsulate. Thus, a project team should also involve professionals who
understand the urban and economic context of a city in addition to the local transport
characteristics. Geographical information systems (GIS) can be the ideal tool to integrate
social-economic and environmental data with transport data figures. GIS software allows
officials to overlay different data types upon one another. In turn, project staff can visualize
transport demand figures simultaneously with other data types. Thus, the new public transport
system can be prioritized in low-income areas and/or in locations with the most serious air
quality problems.

3.

Rapid demand assessment method

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

Yogi Berra, former baseball player, 1925
If a city has no previous history in mapping its transport demand through modelling software,
then the appropriate initial step is the collection of basic travel data. By cataloguing the
number of vehicles and customers within the existing bus and paratransit systems, system
developers can develop a basis for estimating the required characteristics of the new system.
A rapid assessment of existing conditions can be a cost-effective means by which cities can
begin to build an analytic database evolving into more sophisticated analysis techniques.
In this sense, the rapid assessment method is not necessarily a distinct alternative to full
transportation modelling. Instead, the rapid assessment method represents the first steps in a
process that can later grow into full modelling. The same steps used in the rapid assessment
method will provide the basis for a modelling exercise. Analyzing the existing public
transport services and the conditions in which they operate is the first step in a rapid demand
assessment. The principal data that needs to be collected is:
1. The routes of current transit services
2. The number of passengers using each route
3. The transit vehicle speeds on each route

3.1

Route maps

All you need is the plan, the road map, and the courage to press on to your destination.
Earl Nightingale, author, 19211989

Fig. 4.1
Map of paratransit routes in Dakar

(Senegal).
Image courtesy of CETUD

Mapping the existing transit routes provides an initial indication of the areas with the greatest
transit demand. While the roads which carry the most bus or paratransit routes do not always
correspond to the highest number of public transport passengers on a given corridor, usually
there is a strong correlation between large numbers of public transport routes and high
passenger flows. If public transport routes are fairly well regulated, then municipal officials
will likely already possess detailed route itinerary information through registration records. In
some cases, a map of existing routes may also be available.
However, in many developing-nation cities, the majority of transit passengers may be served
by paratransit operations that are weakly regulated.
In such cases, there may be few records of specific transit routes. In other cases, registered
routes may bear little resemblance to the actual situation. Thus, an initial step may involve
simply mapping the existing route structure of bus and paratransit services. Interviews with
existing operators, and actually riding many itineraries may be a critical first step in this
mapping process.

The map in Figure 4.1 is one of the first efforts to map the existing paratransit
(Car Rapide and Ndiaga Ndiaye) in Dakar (Senegal). This activity is often a
critical first step towards bringing such services into a transparent regulatory
framework

3.2

Traffic counts

With the basic route structure in hand, the next step in the rapid assessment process will be
traffic counts and bus occupancy surveys. The number of buses (or other types of public
transport vehicles) combined with their estimated occupancy rates will already yield a crude
estimation of a corridors existing demand.

(Figure 4.2.a).
Fig. 4.2.a
Example of a demand data collection sheet that was utilized in
Dar es Salaam

The strategic selection of the points to conduct the traffic and occupancy survey will
determine the extent to which the survey results will represent the actual situation.
Determining where to do traffic counts can be more of an art than a science, but some general
rules can be applied.
Ideally, the survey locations will allow most trips to be easily captured with a minimum of
resources and effort. If a city has a fairly clearly defined central business district (CBD), and
most of the trips end in the CBD, then it is sometimes possible to do traffic counts at the entry
points along a cordon around the CBD.
For example, in Dar es Salaam, the entire CBD can only be entered through six major
arterials, and few trips both originate and end within the CBD. By conducting traffic counts
at just these six entry points, it was possible to obtain rough CBD demand data for each major
arterial as well as the collective totals.
Fig. 4.2.b

Survey form for cars and trucks in Dar es Salaam.

Traffic Count Survey

Survey Location: ________________________Surveyor Name: _____________________________
Survey Direction: From________________________To____________________________________
Timing: From __________ To ______________ Day: _____________Date:____________________
Type of
Vehicle
Bicycle

Motor Cycle
Qingqi/Auto
Rickshaw
Car Taxi,
Jeep, Suzuki
Pick up
Wagon/ Hiace
Mazda/Coaste
r/Minibus
Large Bus
Tractor
Trolley
Animal
Driven Cart
2-Axle Truck
3 or more
Axle Truck

Volume of Traffic (Tally Marks)

Total

If travel into an area is fairly concentrated along a single direction, perhaps from north to
south or from east to west, then the conditions may allow an even more selective application
of counts. Dakar, for example, is a peninsula, with the CBD at the end, and a simple screen
line count, or several screen line counts may capture most daily commuting trips. With both
cordon counts and screen line counts, the overall principle is the same, but the focus of the
count location is different in order to match the predominant movement of travel. Ideally, the
counts will not just involve observation of buses and paratransit vehicles. There is also great
value in also counting all vehicle traffic (e.g., cars, motorcycles, bicycles, trucks,
pedestrians). Designers may face difficult choices regarding the allocation of scarce road
right of way, and knowing the full mix of traffic, including non-motorized traffic, will be
extremely helpful in making priorities (Figures 4.2.b and 4.2.c).
Fig. 4.2.c
Survey form for non-motorised modes and motorcycles in Dar es Salaam.

With the data on private vehicle numbers, system developers will also be able to estimate the
impact of mode switching on system demand. This data can also be later used to estimate the
impact of the new system on corridor congestion levels. Additionally, if a decision is later
made to utilize a full traffic demand model, then the existing data will be in a form that is
readily adaptable to a more inclusive analytical package.
As the complexity of the counting process increases, though, the resources required to obtain
an accurate count also increase (Figure 4.3.a). To identify all vehicles and produce a valid
count across multiple traffic lanes, a counting strategy becomes vital. One option is to employ
counting teams involving many persons at a single location in order to properly record all
vehicle types in each of the lanes. Alternatively, video technology can be utilized to record
traffic movement and allow a more precise count at a later time. The video record allows
quality control sampling to ensure the counting team is performing at a reasonable level of

accuracy. With all counting strategies, the proper training of survey personnel should be
conducted so that all participants have a common understanding of the task at hand.

3.3

Occupancy surveys

The number of vehicles is only one part of the demand equation. Knowing the average
number of passengers in the vehicles at any given time period provides the other half of the
demand input data. Given the diversity of possible vehicle sizes, the occupancy data should
be categorized and collected by vehicle type. The survey should thus identify vehicles
according to their seating numbers or maximum capacity numbers. For public transport and
paratransit vehicles, some of the possible categorizations could include:
70-seat

bus;

35-seat

bus;

16-seat

mini-bus (Figure 4.3.b);

7-seat

vans.

Usually surveyors count each transit vehicle type and mark full, 3/4 full, 1/2 full, 1/4
full or empty. By recording these two sets of data (vehicle type and occupancy level), the
basis for a rough demand estimate is established.
The average occupancy level is multiplied by the total number of vehicles for a given vehicle
type over a stated time period. The smaller the time period interval, the finer the demand
analysis becomes in identifying significant peak and non-peak periods. Thus, recording
vehicle numbers in 15-minute intervals provides a reasonably fine level of peak
identification. A one-hour interval would provide less insight into peak and non-peak
condition.

3.4

Recording the data

The data on the number of vehicles and the occupancy levels can be collected separately or
simultaneously. The ability to collect both data sets at the same time depends on the
personnel or technical resources being applied to the survey, and the volume of traffic. If all

vehicle types are being counted along with all occupancy levels, then the counting will likely
require either a coordinated team approach or the use of video technology. The effectiveness
of video technology in identifying vehicle occupancy levels will depend on the quality of the
video technology and the placement of the camera.

If a formal transportation model is not being utilized in the rapid assessment approach, then
the raw data will likely next be inputted into standard spreadsheet software like Excel. This
data would likely then be used to produce summary tables and graphs (Figure 4.4). The data
would likely be displayed for each direction of traffic movement across both peak and offpeak periods.
If the routing of each public transport vehicle can be determined either by numerical route
numbers or signage on the vehicle, then vehicle counts and occupancy surveys can be done
on a route-by-route basis. This technique will not only produce a total demand figure for a
given corridor but also some indication of which routes are carrying the most passengers.

Fig. 4.4

Sample graph of vehicle and passenger movement in peak and off-peak period.

3.5

City-wide counts

Because in most cities, trips to the CBD are not the only important routings, and may not
even be the most important trips for public transport passengers, it is usually insufficient to
only do traffic counts in a cordon around the CBD. Further, some cities do not have a clearly
defined CBD.
For this reason, normally one would do traffic counts at a larger selection of critical points
around the city strategically chosen by local and international experts based on a rough
estimate of those locations where most daily trips would pass. However, this selection
process does not necessarily have to lead to a cost-prohibitive number of counting sites. For
example, in the city of Dar es Salaam (population of approximately 4 million inhabitants)
traffic counts in about 30 locations captured a large majority of the trips, and in Jakarta
(population of approximately 9 million inhabitants) about 65 locations were sufficient. If trips
are heavily peaked, then one way counts may be sufficient. Two-directional counts are best if
the travel patterns do not exhibit clear-cut peak conditions.

3.6

Implications of demand results

By simply multiplying total transit vehicles at the peak hour with the average total passengers
per transit vehicle, project developers essentially possess a reasonable estimate of the likely
size of total public transport demand on most of the main corridors. At this point, the most
likely
BRT corridors and routes become roughly evident. By approximately correlating this demand
profile with specific public transport route itineraries, a crude estimate of the corridor
segments with the heaviest passenger volumes is obtained. Effectively, planners are looking
for an estimate of the maximum load on the critical link, usually measured in passengers
per peak hour per direction (pphpd). The maximum load on the critical link is that section of

the potential BRT corridor which is currently carrying the highest volume of existing public
transport passengers (Figure 4.5).
A table ranking the corridors by passenger demand can greatly aid the corridor selection
process. Customer demand is one of the key determinants in choosing the BRT corridor. As
the corridor selection process moves forward, the most desirable corridors will likely undergo
further analysis. This activity will include additional vehicle counts and occupancy surveys
along that corridor.

Fig. 4.5: Demand mapping in Johannesburg helps to identify critical links.

With an estimate of the pphpd at the maximum load on the critical link, planners can already
make some preliminary determinations about the nature of the prospective system. While
these initial traffic counts will not directly imply how many passengers will use a new BRT
system under different scenarios, the counts will provide some indication of how many transit

passengers are currently using the corridor at the peak hour. Table 4.1 outlines a preliminary
decision matrix that correlates a given passenger demand with the type of system. Further
analysis and operational decision-making will ultimately determine which type of system is
most appropriate.
As noted earlier, the results from the rapid assessment work can ultimately feed into a formal
transportation model. The traffic counts and occupancy surveys can be used to potentially
calibrate the model.

3.7

Counts of private vehicles

To the extent possible, private vehicles (cars, motorcycles, trucks, and others) and
nonnotarized trips (bicycles, pedestrians) should be included in the counting survey (Figure
4.6). The counting of private vehicles and nonnotarized vehicles becomes important when
difficult decisions need to be made about the allocation of scarce road right of way. First, the
number and types of these vehicles can give an indication of the likely traffic impact of
dedicating lanes to buses. Secondly, it will provide an early indication of how many
passengers could potentially switch from private transport means to public transport.
Knowing the relative levels of private vehicles and public transport vehicles will be quite
instructive in determining traffic impacts. If three quarters of the vehicles on a three lane road
are buses, then a segregated busway is clearly justified.
In fact, such a finding may well indicate that multiple-lane busways are justifiable; otherwise,
bus passengers may experience delays due to bus congestion along a single lane. In
conditions where public transport vehicles largely outnumber private vehicles, the separation
of buses into a busway can actually free up space for the private vehicles. Thus, such
conditions can ultimately achieve win-win results for both public transport users and private
vehicle users.

Table 4.1: Typical solutions for different demand levels

Transit passengers per

hour per direction
Less than 2,000

2,000 to 8,000
8,000 to 15,000

15,000 to 45,000

Over 45,000

Type of BRT solution

Simple bus priority, normally without
physical segregation, possible part-time bus
lane
Segregated median busway used by direct
services reducing the need to transfer
Segregated median busway used by trunk
services requiring transfers but benefiting
from fast boarding and operating speeds.
Transit priority at intersections
Segregated median busway, with overtaking
at stops; possible use of express and stopping
services. Use of grade separation at some
intersections and some form of signal priority
at others.
This level of demand is very rare on existing
bus systems. It is possible, however, to design
a BRT system that would serve up to even
50,000 passengers per hour per direction. This
can be achieved with full segregation, double
busway, a high proportion of express services
and multiple stops. This capacity could also
be handled by spreading the load through two
or more close corridors.

If the results show that relatively few of the road users are public transport vehicles, then the
development of a busway will likely lead to an initial period of higher congestion levels for
the private vehicles.
This information will also provide an important first clue as to how many passengers might
switch from private cars or motorcycles as a result of the new BRT system. Such data will be
important to estimating projected greenhouse gas emission impacts, which may be critical to
eligibility for Global Environmental Facility (GEF) funding.
Fig. 4.6

Basic counts of private vehicles help to estimates the potential for mode
shifting as well as indicate possible congestion impacts of the dedicated
busways.
Projecting the modal shift of the project is so complex that simple techniques for making
estimates may be nearly as reliable as detailed modelling. The experience of other cities lends
some basis for prediction. In most reasonably well designed systems, some 5 percent to 20
percent of the motorists switch from private vehicles to BRT along a given corridor.
If the majority of the vehicles on the corridor are buses, then the traffic benefits of the project
will be broadly distributed between both bus passengers and mixed traffic, but the modal shift
impact will be less. If the majority of the vehicles on the corridor are private vehicles, then a
busway will tend to have a stronger adverse impact on mixed traffic speeds, a stronger
positive impact on bus speeds, and therefore a bigger potential modal shift impact. Making a
final determination about potential benefits of the system and potential mode shift requires
additional information about current vehicle speeds and congestion points.

3.8

Mapping congestion points and vehicle speeds

While it is often easier to select BRT routes on wide roads, sometimes planners make the
mistake of prioritizing BRT on roads that have no congestion, thinking that this will also
make it politically easier to implement. However, one of the major reasons BRT is more
efficient than other systems is that the segregated right of way removes buses from traffic
congestion. If there is no traffic congestion, then the segregated right of way is meaningless.
BRT systems should therefore be located not on the least congested routes, but on the most
congested routes if benefit to public transport passengers is to be maximized. Choosing
congested roadways will also tend to encourage modal shifts from private vehicles to public
transport.
Therefore, an important element of a rapid assessment is to look at existing bus speeds along
the possible BRT corridors (Figure 4.7). This information will be critical to the calculation of

benefits of the new system. If average bus speeds in a corridor are high (e.g., over 20 kph),
shifting to a BRT system is not likely to bring a significant improvement in bus speeds.
In such conditions, little mode shift from travel time improvements can be expected, although
mode shifts may occur for other reasons, such as improved system image and comfort. If, on
the other hand, speeds are very low (e.g., under 12 kph), then a BRT system can bring
significant travel time improvements for passengers, and a higher level of modal shift from
private vehicles and ordinary buses can be expected. This point may appear obvious, but a
surprising number of new BRT systems are being built on roads with little or no congestion in
order to avoid political problems. The demonstration phase of the Beijing BRT system, for
example, was built on a new road with no bus routes, no bus demand, and no congestion. On
the part of the route where congestion was the most severe, the buses currently re-enter mixed
traffic, removing any possible benefit of the BRT system. In Delhi, the new high capacity bus
system (HCBS) being planned was initially only approved for that part of phase I corridor
which is not congested, while the second part of Corridor I which passes through the old city
faces greater political resistance for fear of worsening traffic congestion. Even in So Paulo,
while many routes have exclusive lanes into the CBD, once the vehicles enter the city center
most routes are forced to re-enter mixed traffic, undermining the benefits of the physical
segregation at the most critical point (Figure 4.8).
Normally, the CBD is the most congested part of a city. It is therefore of crucial importance
that a new BRT system both serve and penetrate the congested CBD.
Table 4.2: Projected modal shift impact based on type of BRT corridor
Type of BRT Corridor
Little congestion, buses > 30% of the vehicle
fleet
Some congestion, buses around 25% of
vehicle fleet
Many links congested, buses around 15% of
vehicle fleet
Very congested, few
buses on the corridor

Projected Modal Shift Impact from private

vehicles
5%
10%
15%
20%

Collecting information on existing bus speeds and mapping it is generally not very difficult.
Many bus operators already collect this information or have it readily available. If not, if the
bus route itinerary is known and the distances between stops are known, it is simply a matter
of riding the key bus routes during the peak hour, taking the time at each stop, and by relating
this time with the distance calculating the speed for each link. Often, for GEF funding, a
decision has to be made about projected modal shift impacts of a BRT system before the
system is clearly defined.

For such circumstances, the Table 4.2 is offered as a possible approach, based on observed
impacts in BRT systems around the world. It combines the information about the vehicle mix
on each corridor and the level of congestion on those corridors.

4.

Detailed demand estimate without modelling

Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.

Pablo Picasso, artist, 18811973

The first step in moving beyond the demand analysis already done in the rapid assessment
method is to map a very detailed and accurate itinerary of all existing transit routes. Software
employing geographical information systems (GIS) can be quite useful to this end. Perhaps
this was already done in the pre-feasibility phase, but it is a good idea at this point to put
these itineraries into a GIS program like Map- Info, AutoCAD or TransCAD. This mapping
could be done on a paper map but it will save a lot of time doing the computations using a
GIS system, and if the data is already geo-coded it will be easy to put the routes into a traffic
model like TransCAD, EMME II, or Visum later on. In some cities, where a significant share
of transit demand is handled by paratransit vehicles, shared taxis, and other forms of
collective transport that do not have fixed itineraries, this methodology will not work. In

other cities, paratransit vehicles usually follow some reasonably predictable route between a
well-known origin and destination, and the basic itineraries can be estimated. In cities where
the existing bus routes are all public buses that closely follow routes assigned by a transport
department or transit authority, mapping these bus routes may have already been done, and if
it has not been done, it should be quite easy.
During the rapid assessment, the technical team should have already done a significant
number of transit vehicle counts and bus occupancy surveys in strategic locations which will
capture most of the transit demand in the city. Once the critical corridors have been selected,
traffic counts and transit vehicle occupancy surveys should also have been completed in order
to get a sense of the demand along the corridor. If this was not done before, it should be done
now

At this point, an additional survey should be conducted: a boarding and alighting survey on
each public transport line (Figure 4.12). For this type of survey, surveyors should ride the
entire length of each major transit line during the rush hour recording how many people are
getting on and off the vehicle at each stop. At the same time, the speed of the vehicle can also
be recorded. If GIS is used, and accurate distances are recorded in the itinerary, the surveyor
simply needs to record the time of each stop, and then the speed can be calculated based on
the distance.
The boarding and alighting survey will give a picture of how many passengers are on each
bus line at different parts of their journey, some of which may be included in the proposed
BRT corridor.
The projected boarding and alighting at each new BRT station will be useful data to allow
designers to avoid station congestion. By aggregating the boarding and alighting data as in

Figure 4.13, the station can be designed to handle the specific number of passengers likely to
use the station.
By adding up the ridership at each stop along all existing routes, the total passengers likely to
use the system at any given point can be determined. The resulting map will show the
maximum load at the critical link (Figure 4.14).
With a sense of the maximum load on the critical link, derived from aggregating the ridership
data of each route, many preliminary judgements can already be made about the basic system
design, and about which routes should be incorporated into the new BRT system. This
information will also indicate which routes will not be a priority for inclusion in the initial
project phases. This process is more of an art than a science, but two factors are typically
used:
n Percentage of the existing route that traverses the corridor; and
n Frequency of the vehicles by route in each direction.
To analyze which routes should be included in the system, and which routes should be left to
operate outside the system (if at all), might be analysed through a graphical analysis as shown
in Figure 4.15.
Figure 4.15 indicates the frequency and percentage of the routing utilising the proposed
corridor on Zhongshan Road in Guangzhou. All the routes with a high frequency that are
heavily concentrated on the corridor should be incorporated into the system, or else the BRT
system will not capture the bulk of the transit demand in the corridor. The more routes that
heavily overlap with the full length of the corridor, the easier the corridor will be to design.
By collating the public transport demand for only those routes that will be brought into the
new BRT system, planners have arrived at a first estimate of the maximum load on the critical
link of the actual proposed BRT systems projected demand. This amount will be some
fraction of the total maximum load on the critical link in the corridor. With this level of

demand analysis, many of the serious design mistakes typically observed can be avoided.
Using the same boarding and alighting survey, average vehicle speeds in the corridor can be
calculated and arranged in a graph as shown in Figure 4.16. The new BRT system, if designed
correctly, should be able to achieve speeds of up to 29 kph throughout the corridor.
Multiplying the number of current passengers by the difference between existing aggregate
speeds and the projected BRT operating speed will yield the projected time savings benefit of
the corridor.
This level of analysis will already give a good idea of how many of the existing transit
systems passengers the new BRT system will capture, assuming that the price of service is
the same.
This is a very good baseline for a minimum demand assumption.
However, planners still need to make some assumptions about how many new passengers are
likely to be attracted from other modes. To get a robust estimate requires a traffic model, but
an important clue will be the existing bus speed data. If existing public transport speeds are
already at or above 26 kph, it can safely be assumed that the new system will not provide a
significant time savings benefit. This lack of time savings will limit the number of new
passengers attracted to the system, although customers may be attracted for other reasons
(safety, security, comfort, fare price, etc.). The lower the existing public transport speeds, the
higher the projected modal shift (Figure 4.17).
It is highly unlikely that short term modal shift will be more than 25 percent of the baseline
demand from existing public transport trips, though to be conservative the system should be
designed to accommodate an increase of 50 percent above existing public transport demand.
However, there may be exceptions. If a citys bus system has all but collapsed, and there are a
large number of difficult to count shared taxi trips, it may be that modal shift will be higher.
In cases of such uncertainty, full demand modelling is recommended.

5.

Estimating demand with a public transport model

The best way to predict the future is to invent it.

Immanuel Kant, philosopher, 17241804

This section will describe how to build a basic traffic model that only models the public
transport system. With this basic public transport model it will be possible to develop a much
more robust estimate of the demand on the existing system. It will also enable the planning
team to much more easily test the demand for different alternative scenarios for fares, small
changes in the routes, as well as to optimize operational characteristics.
In many cities, some sort of traffic model will already exist, but in the developing world it is
relatively rare to have the transit system already coded into a traffic model. Often if there is a
traffic model, it is only usable for motor vehicles and has very limited capacity to model
public transport systems. If a good traffic model already exists, it should be possible to
simply put the public transport system and the proposed BRT scenario into the existing
model. If not, the BRT team should start by modelling the public transport system first, which
will be the most important information for BRT planning.

5.1

Choosing a modelling software

The first step in setting up a public transport model is to obtain traffic modelling software.
The development of transportation modelling software has greatly aided the process of
transport supply and demand projections. Software models today can greatly ease the
modelling process and increase accuracy and precision.
However, with an array of software products on the market, the transport planner can be left
with an overwhelming set of options. Of course, there is no one software solution that is
inherently correct. A range of variables will guide the software selection process. These
variables include cost, familiarity of municipal staff and local consultants with a particular
product, degree of user friendliness sought, degree of precision sought, and the overall

objectives of the modelling task. The table below lists a few of the commonly used software
packages that are on the market today.
The strongest packages for general purpose planning and design of BRT systems are
Emme/2, Cube/Trips and Visum with TransCad offering close capabilities. All of these are
rather expensive packages but again, the most significant costs will be those of training
leading to effective use and familiarity with the package. Older and more sophisticated
modelers like the flexibility of Emme/2, which allows them to easily write sub programs,
called macros, but Emme/2 does not yet have a windows interface (it is under
development), and its graphics capability is fairly weak. More and more consultants are now
using Emme/2 in combination with other programs with better GIS capability, such as
TransCAD. Saturn, TMODEL, QRS II, all either have no public transport assignment
component or else are

fairly weak at modelling public transport demand, and are not

recommended for BRT. Amsun2, Paramics, and Vissim simulate trip making at a high level of
detail, in particular vehicle-by-vehicle. These are very powerful packages to study priority at
junctions and interactions and delays at stops. They should only be used for these purposes
and in combination with the macro demand models listed above, as they are not appropriate
for BRT route analysis.

Figure 4.18
Representation of study area for analysis.

5.2

Defining the study area and the zoning system

Normally, the study area for a BRT system will be the areas currently served by bus and
paratransit services. If the decision maker has already pre-selected a particular corridor as the
first BRT corridor, then the catchment area for this corridor will be the study area.
To analyze travel in the study area, the entire area, as well as some areas outside the study
area, need to be divided into a number of zones (Figure 4.18). As all origin-destination data
will be collected and coded to this zoning system, establishing these zones is an important
first step. Usually the zones are based on census tracts or political subdivisions that have been
used as the basis of any existing census information or previous origin and destination
studies. Using census and other administrative zones that already exist in the city will
increase the chance of compatibility with the overlaying of different data types.

The information needed for modelling, however, is not exactly the same as information
needed by the census bureau, so some census zones are usually consolidated into bigger
zones, and others are broken up into smaller zones. Traffic modellers are generally less
concerned about information outside the study area. As a result, they tend to consolidate
zones outside the study area into fewer, larger zones. This consolidation is a simple matter of
adding up the data associated with each zone. Typically, modellers need more detailed
information in the city center and/or along the proposed
BRT corridor. So typically, the modellers will break up census zones into smaller zones, using
more detailed census data if available, or just dividing the zones using their judgement based
on aerial photographs (Figure 4.18). Sometimes, households and employment will be
concentrated into some parts of a large zone and not others, and it is important to break up the
zone to capture this geographical concentration. Selecting the size of the zones and the
number of zones is a trade-off between accuracy, time, and cost. The size and number of
zones will also depend in part on how the data was collected and how it will be used. For
BRT systems, for a large city like Jakarta, roughly 500 zones were used to analyze the main
relevant BRT corridors.
In a smaller city like Dar es Salaam, only 300 zones were necessary for the main BRT
corridor analysis, though for detailed traffic impact analysis the city center was later broken
into an additional 20 zones. Table 4.4 lists the number of zones that have been developed for
various cities. Note that cities such as London have multiple levels of zones that permit both
coarse- and fine-level analyses.
These zones, and the road network, must be coded into the traffic model if it has not already
been done. This process will not be described here in any detail, as it is a standard function of
all traffic modelling, and is thoroughly described in the documentation of any commercially
available traffic demand model. However, the basic points of this process are summarized

below. Data is usually entered into a traffic model either as a point, usually called a node
which has a specific x and y coordinate, or as a link, which is a line connecting two
nodes. Normally, each intersection and each major bend in a road is assigned a separate node.
Nodes are usually numbered. Ideally, the x and y coordinates of each node should correspond
to actual latitude and longitude. Making sure these nodes correspond to actual latitude and
longitude is called geocoding. Geocoding will ensure that data from different sources are
consistent.
Normally roads are broken up into different links. Links are usually named from their origin
node and their destination node. For example, in Dar es Salaam, there was already an existing
GIS map. If no GIS map exists, then staff will have to utilize a Geographic Positioning
System (GPS) devise to record the coordinates of each of these points (Figure 4.20). In Dar
es Salaam, the team initially defined 102 nodes, and later increased it to 2,500
important nodes. By the end, the nodes represented most of the important
intersections in the city. Each node will be recorded in a simple spreadsheet
(Table 4.5). By connecting these nodes, a series of links are defined that
represent different roads. For example, in Dar es Salaam, Morogoro Road
between Sokoine Drive and Samora Avenue, is

5.3
5.4

6.
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4

Origin-destination survey and matrix

Origin-destination survey and matrix

Estimating demand using a full traffic model

Overview
Additional data needs
Detailed modelling for BRT
Assessment of the feasibility of the system