MANPOWER INC.

EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK SURVEY

FOURTH QUARTER 2002

HIRING ACTIVITY TO REMAIN STABLE
THROUGH YEAR END
Traditionally one of the slower THE OUTLOOK BY INDUSTRY 1987-2002
periods of the year, the fourth
quarter of 2002 is no exception. MINING CONSTRUCTION
Seven out of 10 sectors indi-
cate that hiring activity will be
curtailed or remain unchanged
from the expectations voiced
three months ago. On the plus
side, the Finance/Insurance/
Real Estate sector foresees an
MANUFACTURING - DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING - NON-DURABLE GOODS
upturn in hiring over both last
quarter and last year. Education
employers anticipate an improv-
ing staffing pattern from the
weak picture they painted three
months ago. The Manufactur-
ing sectors, while virtually
unchanged from last quarter TRANSPORTATION & PUBLIC UTILITIES WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES
on a seasonally adjusted basis,
are up over the plans revealed
for the end of 2001. The
Wholesale/Retail Trades are
gearing up as usual for the
holiday buying season, but only
keeping pace with intentions
voiced both last quarter and FINANCE, INSURANCE & REAL ESTATE EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE
last year at this time. As the
temperatures fall, Construction
firms will be putting their equip-
ment away. But Construction
employers in the less weather-
dependent South will keep on
working.
SERVICES PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED
THE NATIONAL OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY
net % +/-
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted

MINING 17 68 11 4 6 5

CONSTRUCTION 21 62 13 4 8 15

MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 21 62 11 6 10 13

MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 22 64 9 5 13 14

TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 19 65 10 6 9 8

WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 34 54 8 4 26 17

FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 19 69 6 6 13 14

EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 20 66 8 6 12 7

SERVICES 22 64 9 5 13 17

PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 15 68 12 5 3 9

ALL INDUSTRIES 24 62 9 5 15 14

UNITED STATES
THE NORTHEAST OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY NORTHEAST

net % +/- Year-end projections for the Northeast
% % no % % don’t net % seasonally
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted show some erosion of the optimism
MINING 25 50 0 25 25 26 reported for last quarter. However, the
forecast is more robust than for the
CONSTRUCTION 21 63 12 4 9 14
three periods prior to the third quarter.
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 22 59 11 8 11 11 Educators are reporting an increase in
new job prospects, a significant turn-
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 22 61 11 6 11 15
around from the forecast issued last
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 20 64 11 5 9 9 quarter. Wholesale/Retail merchants
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 37 49 8 6 29 19
appear to be expecting a very good
holiday season as they project more
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 19 68 5 8 14 16 opportunities than they have in the past
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 18 68 8 6 10 3 two years. Transportation/Public Utilities
firms foresee considerable improvement
SERVICES 22 63 10 5 12 16
in their industry. Conversely, Construction
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 17 64 10 9 7 11 firms are telling their workers to wait for
the return of warm weather. Public
ALL INDUSTRIES 24 60 10 6 14 13
Administrators are also anticipating a
seasonally slower staffing pace. The
CONNECTICUT
MAINE Manufacturing sectors anticipate another
MASSACHUSETTS season of satisfactory hiring. Mining
NEW HAMPSHIRE employers are especially upbeat, as
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK they paint the most vibrant picture in
PENNSYLVANIA two years.
RHODE ISLAND
VERMONT
THE MIDWEST OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY MIDWEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
On a deseasonalized basis, the Midwest
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted is the only region to better its outlook
MINING 14 72 14 0 0 -2 from three months ago. An upturn in
hiring is expected in Finance/Insurance/
CONSTRUCTION 16 64 17 3 -1 16
Real Estate, a continuation of a pattern
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 21 64 10 5 11 14 first seen at the outset of the year.
Services employers, when accounting for
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 23 67 7 3 16 17
seasonal factors, are also more upbeat.
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 15 72 9 4 6 9 Education is showing some recovery
from the significant downturn forecast
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 33 57 7 3 26 16
last quarter. Public Administration units
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 74 5 3 13 14 report a need for fewer government
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 17 70 8 5 9 3 workers, as they project the softest job
market in nine years. The weather-
SERVICES 19 70 7 4 12 16
dependent Construction industry reports
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 9 74 15 2 -6 7 that it also will need less staff. When
factoring out the subdued outlook
ALL INDUSTRIES 22 65 9 4 13 14
normally seen at this time of year, the
ILLINOIS key Durable and Non-Durable Goods
INDIANA Manufacturing sectors are maintaining
IOWA the moderately healthy hiring pace of a
KANSAS
MICHIGAN quarter ago. Transportation/Public
MINNESOTA Utilities firms expect they will need
MISSOURI
NEBRASKA fewer employees.
NORTH DAKOTA
OHIO
SOUTH DAKOTA
WISCONSIN
THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY SOUTH

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally
Employers in the South are the most
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted optimistic in the country for the final
MINING 19 71 10 0 9 5 quarter of 2002. However, their enthusi-
asm for hiring matches only the moderate
CONSTRUCTION 25 61 9 5 16 20
showing revealed for the year’s end in
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 22 61 12 5 10 12 2001. Brighter forecasts were reported
for the five years preceding last year’s
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 21 66 7 6 14 15
downturn. Taking into account the less
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 18 66 9 7 9 7 severe restraints of cold weather in
this region, Construction is among the
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 35 53 7 5 28 18
industry leaders. Education has taken
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 18 71 4 7 14 14 a big jump in anticipated hiring after a
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 22 66 6 6 16 10 diminished outlook for most of the year.
The Transportation/Public Utilities sector
SERVICES 23 65 7 5 16 19
has slid to the subdued projections of
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 17 65 11 7 6 9 early in the year after making a significant
comeback three months ago. The out-
ALL INDUSTRIES 24 62 8 6 16 15
look for the Finance/Insurance/Real
ALABAMA MARYLAND Estate industry continues to improve with
ARKANSAS MISSISSIPPI the second consecutive quarter of hiring
DELAWARE NORTH CAROLINA gains. However, Public Administration
DISTRICT OKLAHOMA
OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA shows some deterioration from plans of
FLORIDA TENNESSEE three months as well as a year ago.
GEORGIA TEXAS
KENTUCKY VIRGINIA
LOUISIANA WEST VIRGINIA
THE WESTERN OUTLOOK 1987-2002

NET HIRING STRENGTH, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

NET HIRING STRENGTH, UNADJUSTED

BY INDUSTRY CATEGORY WEST

% % no % % don’t
net % +/-
net % seasonally The year-end forecast for the West job
INDUSTRY CATEGORIES increase change decrease know +/- adjusted picture is the coolest it has been in
MINING 11 61 17 11 -6 -6 seven years. Western employers antici-
pate relatively modest job growth in the
CONSTRUCTION 22 55 18 5 4 8
year’s final months. On the positive side,
MFG.–DURABLE GOODS 23 52 16 9 7 10 Education has rebounded from the dis-
mal picture painted for most of 2002.
MFG.–NON-DURABLE GOODS 24 57 13 6 11 13
Another bright spot seen on the hiring
TRANS. & PUBLIC UTILITIES 27 55 13 5 14 11 horizon in the West is Transportation/
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADES 30 56 9 5 21 13
Public Utilities. The normally upbeat
Wholesale/Retail Trade sector anticipates
FINANCE, INS. & REAL ESTATE 21 62 10 7 11 12 less hiring than it did last quarter or even
EDUCATION - PUBLIC & PRIVATE 25 58 10 7 15 11 last year at this time. Mining employers
are not as enthusiastic as their brethren
SERVICES 25 54 14 7 11 15
in other parts of the country and the
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 19 66 12 3 7 11 Manufacturing sectors, while up from a
year ago at this time, foresee fewer job
ALL INDUSTRIES 25 57 12 6 13 13
opportunities than they did three months
ago. The Services and Construction
ALASKA
ARIZONA sectors project the softest hiring pattern
CALIFORNIA in six years. Finance/Insurance/Real
COLORADO
HAWAII Estate firms note a significant falloff in
IDAHO expectations compared to a quarter ago.
MONTANA
NEVADA
NEW MEXICO
OREGON
UTAH
WASHINGTON
WYOMING
INTERNATIONAL HEADQUARTERS
5301 North Ironwood Road
Milwaukee, Wisconsin 53217

www.us.manpower.com

The quarterly Employment Outlook

Survey has been conducted as a
public service of Manpower Inc. for
26 years. The survey was designed
and is administered by Manpower’s
Market Research and Analysis
Department, utilizing a statistically
representative sample of nearly 16,000
public and private employers from
among ten industrial sectors in 474
U.S. markets.
The fourth quarter 2002 survey
is a measurement of employment
plans for the permanent workforce.
The survey results reflect the intentions
of the sample employers interviewed.
Some of these intentions may change
unexpectedly upon the conclusion of
this survey.

©Copyright. Manpower Inc. 2002. All rights reserved.