B RITISH C OLUMBIA R EAL E STATE A SSOCIATION

H OUSING F ORECAST
S ECOND Q UARTER 2010
E CONOMICS J UNE 2010

P USH AND P ULL : E CONOMIC G ROWTH VERSUS A FFORDABILITY MLS® 09 10f 11f

Residential units sales through the Fraser Valley as the dramatic re- 85,028 82,350 85,900
Sales
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) bound in consumer demand experi-
23% (3%) 4%
in BC are forecast to ease back 3 per enced during the latter half 2009
cent to 82,350 units in 2010, before was induced by short-term factors Avg Price 465,725 494,600 499,700
climbing 4 per cent to 85,900 units of pent-up demand and favourable 2% 6% 1%
in 2011. Waning pent-up demand, interest rates.
$ Volume 39.6 Bil 40.7 Bil 42.9 Bil
upward pressure on mortgage inter- The North is expected to post the 26% 3% 5%
est rates and tighter lending qualifi- strongest percentage gains in unit
sales as a result of reinvigorated Housing
BC MLS® Residential Sales demand for commodities and the Starts1
Units
120,000
associated employment growth. Total 16,077 23,100 26,900
100,000
The rest of the province is expected (53%) 44% 17%
80,000 to continue along a trajectory of
60,000 gradually improving consumer de- Single 7,892 10,200 12,300
40,000
mand in line with overall provincial (28%) 29% 21%
20,000
economic performance. Multiple 8,185 12,900 14,600
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f
After climbing 2.4 per cent in (65%) 58% 13%
Source: BCREA 2009, the average MLS® residen- 09 10f 11f
cations for low equity home buyers tial price in the province is forecast
will moderate consumer demand to increase a further 6.2 per cent
Real GDP (2.3%) 2.9% 2.9%
this year, particularly on the South this year before remaining relatively Growth
Coast. unchanged in 2011, albeit up 1 per
cent. Vancouver, Victoria and the Employment (2.4%) 1.8% 2.1%
Improving economic conditions, Growth
Fraser Valley comprise two-thirds
however, are expected to counter- of provincial home sales and the Unemploy- 7.6% 7.5% 7.1%
balance some of the erosion in af- ment rate
2009 year-over-year change in BC
fordability caused by higher mort- home prices largely reflect gains Net 58,571 62,300 64,100
gage interest rates and tighter lend- already realized in those markets. Migration
ing. Stronger economic and employ- Seller’s market conditions have
ment growth in 2011 will bolster 5-Yr Mortgage 5.25- 5.45- 6.20-
now given way to balanced condi-
housing demand and push Rate Range 5.79 6.20 6.60
tions in the Lower Mainland and
home sales higher. Victoria as moderating consumer
Regionally, home sales are demand and a larger inventory of 1. Source: CMHC, BCREA Forecast

forecast to edge lower in homes for sale are quelling upward 2. Source: Statistics Canada, BC
Vancouver, Victoria and the pressure on home prices. Stats, BCREA Forecast
 P AGE 2 H OUSING F ORECAST

Housing Forecast Summary— Quarter 2 2010

Unit Sales Average MLS® Price ($)

Board Area 2009 2010F 2011F 2009 2010F 2011F
7,660 7,290 7,600 476,137 511,800 518,000
Victoria
24.1% (4.8%) 4.3% (1.8%) 7.5% 1.2%
7,280 7,550 7,800 316,118 327,200 334,500
Vancouver Island
6.8% 3.7% 3.3% (4.4%) 3.5% 2.2%
263 275 280 237,125 247,900 251,000
Powell River Sunshine Coast
25.2% 4.6% 1.8% (6.7%) 4.5% 1.3%
36,257 33,400 34,900 592,441 655,900 658,800
Greater Vancouver
44.2% (7.9%) 4.5% (0.2%) 10.7% 0.4%
15,660 15,200 15,650 425,796 445,200 451,000
Fraser Valley
24.4% (2.9%) 3.0% (1.4%) 4.6% 1.3%
2,274 2,340 2,440 296,601 312,600 319,500
Chilliwack and District
11.7% 2.9% 4.3% (6.2%) 5.4% 2.2%
2,334 2,360 2,480 300,349 307,900 314,000
Kamloops and District
4.4% 1.1% 5.1% (2.3%) 2.5% 2.0%
5,678 5,780 6,200 379,711 389,000 397,000
Okanagan Mainline
4.0% 1.8% 7.3% (6.6%) 2.4% 2.1%
1,545 1,610 1,690 314,833 321,200 325,000
South Okanagan
4.3% 4.2% 5.0% (7.2%) 2.0% 1.2%
2,119 2,310 2,400 274,118 278,100 285,000
Kootenay
(6.4%) 9.0% 3.9% (4.7%) 1.5% 2.5%
340 385 410 222,294 220,800 228,100
Northern Lights
(28.1%) 13.2% 6.5% 16.0% (0.7%) 3.3%
3,618 3,850 4,050 211,805 217,300 224,000
BC Northern
(10.4%) 6.4% 5.2% (1.6%) 2.6% 3.1%
85,028 82,350 85,900 465,725 494,600 499,700
BC Total
23.4% (3.1%) 4.3% 2.4% 6.2% 1.0%

BCREA Economics provides timely research, analysis and information on economic factors affecting
British Columbia and its housing markets.
British Columbia Real Estate Association
BCREA represents 12 member real estate boards and their approximately 18,000 REALTORS® on all provincial issues,
providing an extensive communications network, standard forms, economic research and analysis,
applied practice courses and continuing professional education (cpe).
To demonstrate the profession’s commitment to improving Quality of Life in BC communities,
BCREA supports growth that encourages economic vitality, housing opportunities, environmental preservation,
property owner rights and better communities.

www.bcrea.bc.ca
Copy courtesy of: Dean Birks
Royal LePage PG
Cameron Muir Chief Economist 604.742.2780 www.DeanBirks.com

The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or complete-
ness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does the British Columbia Real Estate Association assume any
responsibility or liability.
This publication/research is generously funded, in part, by
The Real Estate Foundation of British Columbia.