National Security

Consequences of U.S.
Oil Dependency

Independent Task Force Report

COUNCIL ON FOREIGN
RELATIONS
1
 Figure 1: U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by
Source, 2005
45

40
40

35

30
Quadrillion Btu

25
23 23

20

15

10 8

5
3 3
1
0
Petroleum Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Biomass Hydro-electric Geothermal,
Electric Power Power Solar, Wind

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005.

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 Figure 2: U.S. Consumption, Production, and
Imports of Oil, 1949–2005
25

20 Consumption
Million Barrels per Day

15

Production

10

5
Net Imports

0
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005.

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 Figure 3: Nominal and Real Refiner Acquisition
Costs (RAC)* of Crude Oil
70

60

50
Dollars per Barrel

40
Real Price
(2000 Dollars)
30

20

Nominal Price
10

0
0

72

78

84

90

98

04
68

74

80

82

86

88

92

94

00
7

0
19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20
19

19

19

20
Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2005.

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 Figure 4: Annual Growth in World Oil Demand
2.5

Rest of World
United States
China
2.0
Million Barrels per Day

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
1981-1990 1991-1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

-0.5

Source: EIA Term Energy Outlook, February 2006 (1981–90 and 1991–99 are annual averages).

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 Table 1: World Proved Oil Reserves by Country
as of January 1, 2006 (billion barrels)

Country Oil Reserves

Saudi Arabia 264.3
Canada 178.8
Iran 132.5
Iraq 115.0
Kuwait 101.5
United Arab Emirates 97.8
Venezuela 79.7
Russia 60.0
Libya 39.1
Nigeria 35.9
United States 21.4
China 18.3
Qatar 15.2
Mexico 12.9
Algeria 11.4
Brazil 11.2
Kazakhstan 9.0
Norway 7.7
Azerbaijan 7.0
India 5.8
Rest of World 68.1
World Total 1,292.5

Source: “Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,” Oil & Gas Journal 103: 47 (December 19, 2005), pp. 24–25.

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 Table 2: Top World Oil Producers, 2004*

Country Total Oil Production**

(million barrels per day)
1) Saudi Arabia 10.37
2) Russia 9.27
3) United States 8.69
4) Iran 4.09
5) Mexico 3.83
6) China 3.62
7) Norway 3.18
8) Canada 3.14
9) Venezuela 2.86
10) United Arab Emirates 2.76
11) Kuwait 2.51
12) Nigeria 2.51
13) United Kingdom 2.08
14) Iraq 2.03
*Table includes all countries total oil production exceeding 2 million barrels per
day in 2004.
**Total oil production includes crude oil, natural gas liquids, condensate,
refinery gain, and other liquids.

Source: See http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/topworldtables1_2.html.

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 Figure 5: North American Natural Gas
Consumption and Production, 1980–2005
45

40

35
Imports (LNG)
Consumption
Trillion Cubic Feet per Year

30

25

20
Production

15

10

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2005.

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Figure 6: Trends in Rising Chinese Oil Imports,
Prices, and Number of Political Oil Deals

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