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0611PM
0611PM
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 11, 2010
Early Evening Market Review for Friday
Oil prices were lower on Friday as traders continued all day to
brood over retail sales figures. It showed an unexpected decline and
Capital Economics said about it, “The sharp 1.2 m/m decline in US
retail sales in May dramatically weakens the outlook for consumption
growth in the second quarter … “ As is typically the case, Capital
Economics (CE) got it right and the market responded accordingly.
Traders also saw these figures as a sign that the consumer is in pain
and that retail sales have suffered as employment has failed to gain
any real traction. CE went on to note the potentially negative impact
of lower retail sales on future GDP.
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CAMERON HANOVER
[DAILY PETROSPECTIVE] June 11, 2010
It noted, “… real consumption in the second quarter as a whole may grow at an annualized rate of less than
2.0%, down from 3.5% in the first.” It suggested that a previous growth outlook of 4% now seems “very
challenging.” And it added, “…these data suggest 3.0% now looks more plausible.” For a major economic think
tank to reduce its GDP forecast by 1% is hardly usual, but that seems to have been their message. This report
was unexpected and changes the picture rather significantly.
Equities, the euro and oil all tried to rally back above unchanged around 11 AM. The euro did claw its way
back to even on the day and stocks did manage to pull themselves into positive territory, but oil prices could
not get back to scratch, and they ended the day in negative territory. The combination of a disappointing retail
sales figure and a technical failure on the charts, just a day after looking so promising, could not be overcome
by the bulls.
The bottom line for Monday is that oil prices are under selling pressure and there does not seem to be any
combination of factors bullish enough right now to help push quotes higher. For every rally in equities, there
seems to be a negative economic statistic. For every increase in demand, we seem to have a rise in
inventories. Prices need a strong economy, a strong equities market and a stronger euro to overcome existing
fundamentals.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Chart
Thursday’s high now is acting as resistance. Prices failed – just ‐ at breaking over $75.75 this week. We could see long liquidation if
traders see it as a decisive repudiation as we start trading next week.
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