INDIA 2050-GLOBAL

SUPERPOWER OR
LAGGARD
WILL INDIA SUPERPOWER
OR LAGGARD?
India currently has the 11th largest
GDP in the world…
United States 10417
Japan 3979
Germany 1976
United Kingdom 1552
France 1410
China 1237
Italy 1181
Canada 716
Spain 650
Mexico 637
India 515
South Korea 477
Brazil 452
Netherlands 414
Australia 411
Russia 347
Taiw an 282
Sw itzerland 268
Belgium 248
Sw eden 230

WDI: Constant 95 US$ billion,

 …accounting for 1.6% of the global
GDP…
United States 33.0%
Japan 12.6%
Germany 6.3%
United Kingdom 4.9%
France 4.5%
China 3.9%
Italy 3.7%
Canada 2.3%
Spain 2.1%
Mexico 2.0%
India 1.6%
Korea, Rep. 1.5%
Brazil 1.4%
Netherlands 1.3%
Australia 1.3%
Russia 1.1%
 …and ranks 26th in the world by total
trade in goods and services (US$ billion,
2002)…
Unite d S ta te s 2374
Ge rm a ny 1356
J a pa n 925
Unite d Kingdo m 850
F ra nc e 815
C hina 706
Ita ly 615
Ne the rla nds 574
C a na da 558
B e lgium 481
Ho ng Ko ng, C hina 478
Ko re a , R e public o f 377
S pa in 374
M e xic o 363
Ta ipe i, C hine s e 293
S inga po re 289
Aus tria 226
S witze rla nd 215
Ire la nd 209
Ma la ys ia 204
R us s ia n 202
S we de n 193
Aus tra lia 172
Tha ila nd 165
De nm a rk 155
India 151
B ra zil 133
No rwa y 131
S a udi Ara bia 119
P o la nd 115

WTO: US$ billion,

India has been one of the fastest growing
economies in the world over the last 20
years
Annual average growth rates of 10 fastest growing economies small
countries (pop < 10 million)

China 9.5

South Korea 6.8

Taiwan 6.6

Vietnam 6.5

Malaysia 6.3

Thailand 6.0

India 5.6

Indonesia 5.4

Cambodia 5.3

Pakis tan 5.2

Source: WDI
What does the Goldman Sachs BRIC Report
say?
(BRIC=Brazil, Russia, India, China)
Goldman Sachs in their BRIC report have higher than historical projections for
Brazil and Russia and lower predictions for China…
9.5%
10%
8.5%
9% Historical (1980-2002) Goldman Sachs (2000-2050)
7.7%
8%

7%
5.6% 5.6%
6%

5% 4.2%

4% 2.9%
2.5% 2.6%
2.4%
3% 2.1% 2.2%
1.9% 1.8% 2.0%
1.8%
1.3% 1.3%
2% 0.9%

1%

-1% -0.1%
G erm any

R us s ia
J apan

C hina
Braz il

India
Italy

UK

US
F ranc e
 …leading India to emerge as the 3rd largest
economy in 2050 (1995 US$ billion)…

China 43926

US 35067

India 30209

Japan 6092

Brazil 5596

Note the big gap between the first three and the rest
Russia 5367

UK 3919

Germany 3816

France 3297

Italy 2185
 Projecting GDP using historical growth
rates, India would be the 6th largest
economy in 2050
China 96178

United States 37781

Japan 19233

South Korea 16706

Taiw an 8662

India 7307

Germany 6458

France 4974

United Kingdom 3960

Italy 3111

Brazil 2598

Russia 339
 Under GS assumptions, India would be
the world’s 3rd largest trader in 2050
China 13842

US 6969

India 5575

Russia 3018

UK 2054

Germany 2021

France 1421

Japan 1238

Brazil 1013

Italy 948

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

 Using historical growth rates, India would
be the 10th largest trader in 2050
China 59.1%

South Korea 21.1%

Taiw an 15.5%

United States 14.7%

Japan 7.6%

Germany 6.7%

France 4.2%

United Kingdom 4.1%

Italy 2.6%

India 2.6%

Brazil 0.9%

Russia 0.4%
 INDIA-2050

India is already a large player.

It will become larger.
THE END