Nearshore NOAA/NOS/OR&R Nearshore

Surface Oil Forecast Estimate for: 1200 CDT, Thursday, 7/29/10

Deepwater Horizon MC252 Date Prepared: 2000 CDT, Wednesday, 7/28/10
This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Wednesday, July 28 PM. Currents were obtained from several models (NOAA Gulf of Mexico, West Florida
Shelf/USF, TGLO/TAMU, NAVO/NRL) and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from Tuesday-Wednesday satellite imagery analysis (NOAA/NESDIS)
and overflight observations. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization). Oil
near bay inlets could be brought into that bay by local tidal currents.
93°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 89°0'0"W Mobile
88°0'0"W Milton
87°0'0"W 86°0'0"W

Gulfport Mobile Pensacola

Pascagoula Choctawatchee
Bay Bay
Bay St Louis Mississippi Sound Bay
Lake
St. Andrew
Pontchartrain
Bay
30°0'0"N Calcasieu 30°0'0"N
Port Arthur Lake Grand Chandeleur
Lake White Sound
Vermilion
Lake Bay
Breton Mississippi Canyon 252 Apalachic
Atchafalaya Sound Incident Location
Bay
Forecast location for oil Venice
on 29-July-10 at 1200 CDT Barataria
Bay
29°0'0"N 29°0'0"N
Caillou
Bay Terrebonne
Bay
k
Significantly less oil is currently being observed on
overflights and the Surface Oil Forecast will be suspended
28°0'0"N
once there have been three days in a row of no significant 28°0'0"N
recoverable oil observed.

Trajectory
Winds are forecast to become NW overnight and continuing through Saturday at speeds of 5-15 kts. Observations from overflights indicate the Uncertainty
remaining scattered “anomalies” observed by remote sensing are predominantly light sheens with very little recoverable oil being observed. With Light
27°0'0"N 27°0'0"N
light winds and calm seas today, many of these anomalies were also confirmed to be false positives. Patches of emulsified oil and sheens were Medium
observed to the west of the Delta nearshore off Timbalier Bay and Barataria Bay. Shoreline impacts will begin to be reduced by the offshore Heavy
winds, however, trajectories indicate Breton Sound, the Mississippi Delta and shorelines west to Timbalier Bay continue to be threatened by
Potential
scattered impacts within this forecast period. X
beached oil

93°0'0"W 92°0'0"W 91°0'0"W 90°0'0"W 89°0'0"W 88°0'0"W 87°0'0"W 86°0'0"W

0 25 50 100
Next Forecast:
Miles July 29th PM