PERT

Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246

 Concept of Activity Time
(a) The optimistic time estimate: this is the
estimate of the shortest possible time in which
an activity can be completed on the ideal
conditions. For this estimate, no provision for
delays of setbacks are made. We shall denote
this estimate by a.
(b) The pessimistic time estimate: this is the
maximum possible time needed to accomplish
the job. If everything went wrong and normal
situations prevailed, this would be the time
estimate. It is denoted by b.
Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246
 (c) The most likely time estimate: this is
the time which lies between the optimistic
and pessimistic time estimates. It
assumes that things go in a normal way
with few setbacks. It is represented by m.

Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246

 Probability
Beta Distribution β

a
Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246 Time
m te b
 Formulas and Concepts
• Expected time of the activity te =
(a+4m+b)/ 6
• The area under the β distribution is
covered by ±3σ
• This means the standard deviation is
σ = (b-a)/6
• Hence the Variance is σ2 = {(b-a)/6}2

Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246

 Further Concepts – All Activities
• The mean distribution of activity times of
all activities is Te = te1+ te2 + te3 + te4 + te5 etc..
• Variance of all the activities is
VT = σT2 = σ12 + σ22 + σ32 + σ42 + σ52 ….
Hence σT =√ σ12 + σ22 + σ32 + σ42 + σ52
….

Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246

 Concepts – Particular activity
• EF = ES + expected time te
• LS = LF - expected time te
• Slack = LS – ES or LF- EF
• Activities along the Critical Path will have
____?__ slack

Prepared by P.Jagan Narayan - 9819063246