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India'S Future: or Prosperity Will Spread in India But Happiness Will Not, Until We Fix Governance
India'S Future: or Prosperity Will Spread in India But Happiness Will Not, Until We Fix Governance
India'S Future: or Prosperity Will Spread in India But Happiness Will Not, Until We Fix Governance
by
Gurcharan Das
WIPRO
November 12, 2009
Marbella
Where are we coming from?
0
1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
Population growth is slowing
(%)
2.5 2.2
2.1
2.0 1.8
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0
1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001)
Literacy is rising
(%)
100
80
80
65
60 52
40
17
20
0
1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
200 220
100
65
0
1980 2000 2010
Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002
Poverty is declining
(%)
50 1% of the people have
46 been crossing poverty
40
line each year for 25
30 years
26 Equals ~ 200m
20
16
10
0
1980 2000 2010
Per capita income gains
US$ ppp
1,178
1980
3,051 2005
33%
42% 59%
64% India India
China China
41%
Europe U.S.
58% Brazil
45%
Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.?
Reasons for success
We have
■ Dynamic democracy with
honest elections
■ Free, lively media and press
■ Bureaucracy
■ Judiciary
■ Police
The economy
grows at night
when the
government is
asleep
Key reforms
30
20 16,800
10 5,800
3,050
2,100
0
2000 2005 2020 2040 2066
Convergence in the 21st century
32%
22%
Chennai
8%
1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
What could stop the show?
- Infrastructure
- Improving via public-private parterships
- Fiscal Deficit
- Governance
- Nuclear War?
Education System