Picture this: foresight and scenario planning in

practice

A strategy seminar organised jointly by the Performance Hub

and NCVO Third Sector Foresight

www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/3s4
www.performancehub.org.uk

1
Introduction
This is a report of the final seminar in the series of ‘Hothouse’ strategy seminars
organised jointly by the Performance Hub and Third Sector Foresight. The seminar was
held on 23rd January 2007 and aimed to explore the challenges and benefits of scenario
planning and other future visioning exercises in practice for voluntary and community
organisations (VCOs).

The seminar featured a presentation by Andrew Curry, Director of Henley Centre

Headlight Vision which outlined some of the challenges and benefits of scenario planning
and future visioning exercises in practice.

This was followed by a plenary discussion, facilitated by Caroline Copeman of the Centre
for Charity Effectiveness, Cass Business School, which focused on unpicking the
challenges and benefits of scenario planning through sharing each other’s experiences.

Thirty-five senior managers, chief executives and development workers participated in

the seminar.

Contents
Introduction to scenarios ............................................................................2
Benefits of scenario planning ......................................................................5
Meeting the challenges of futures work ......................................................6
Helping people think creatively about the future ........................................7
Communicating the insights gained from scenarios and integrating
futures work into your planning ..................................................................9
Tips for successful scenario planning and futures work ............................10
Further reading..........................................................................................11
Appendix: Seminar participants ................................................................12

Introduction to scenarios
The information in this report is based on discussions that took place during the seminar
and a presentation from Andrew Curry, Director, Henley Centre Headlight Vision. The
presentation provided a brief overview of the challenges and benefits involved in
scenario planning and future visioning exercises based on the Henley Centre’s extensive
experience in this area of work.

What are scenarios?

Scenarios are visions of alternative plausible futures. They can help organisations
to think creatively about future opportunities and challenges.

Using scenarios can be incredibly powerful. They can be particularly useful for
organisations that find their environment is changing rapidly and in unpredictable ways.

2
They can help you to think creatively about the future rather than just about the ‘here
and now’. Scenarios offer a way of making the potential effects of external drivers feel
real.
What are external drivers?
Drivers are major forces or trends that could positively or negatively shape the
future of your organisation.

However, it is important to note that this is a process of anticipating possible futures,

not predicting what the future will actually look like.

Want to know how to do scenario planning yourself?

To find out more about scenario planning please order a copy of Picture this: a
guide to scenario planning for voluntary organisations.
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/picturethis

What scenarios are – and are not

They are: They are not:

Descriptions of alternative coherent Predictions
and plausible futures
“Narratives” of the evolving dynamics Variations around a midpoint/base case
of the future
Specific strategy-focused views of the Generalised views of feared or desired
future futures
The combination of tacit and explicit The product of outside futurists or
knowledge consultants
Source: SRI

Why try scenario planning?

• If you have a number of high impact and unpredictable drivers to consider

(High impact – could have a big effect on your organisation, Unpredictable –
could go one way or the other)
• To stimulate creative activity across your organisation – focused on the future
• To open up really big, new opportunities and ideas for improvement
• To draw in new perspectives (from external and internal sources)
• To provide a strategic framework to help manage uncertainty and ambiguity

“The attraction of this is it forces you to think 10-15 years ahead.”

Aidan Timlin, Christian Aid

“Looking at the future should disturb the present”

Gaston Berger, Futurist

When to use scenarios – and when not to

DO use them if… DON’T use them if…

3
The short to medium term future is The scenarios aren’t designed to address a
unstable/uncertain clear strategic question
You need to understand “why” something You can’t get a reasonable level of support
is happening (e.g. membership is falling) or visibility within the organisation
You need to create a shared understanding You can’t ensure a reasonable level of
of key issues and uncertainty involvement in the process (you’ll end up
with a future-proofed strategy which
nobody ‘gets’)
You need to create a more outward
looking open and customer focused culture
You need to have a strategic conversation
with stakeholders, employees, and other
key interests across organisational
boundaries
Source: Henley Centre HeadlightVision

Doing good futures work

• Get the focus question right – a clear entry question with direct relevance to your
organisation e.g. “What will our funding look like in ten years’ time?”
• Allow multiple possible futures – remember futures work is not about predicting
the future.
• Open conversations and questions are essential
• Understand what you can influence – and what you have to manage
• It’s not just about strategy – but about looking outside of the business to
improve your effectiveness.
• Full understanding takes time – be realistic in your planning.
• Pick out the future uncertainties that are critical for the success of your
organisation. Developing a stronger understanding of these uncertainties will tell
you a lot about the capabilities your organisation will need in the future and
therefore, the actions you can take now to get there.
• Successful futures work is creative and uncertain.

"Any useful statement about the future should at first seem ridiculous."
Jim Dator, futurist

4
The plenary discussion was centred on three key questions which participants explored
in small groups. They then shared their thoughts on these issues and discussed any
previous experience they had in future visioning.

3 Questions:

1 What are the challenges and benefits of scenario planning and future
visioning exercises?
2 How do you engage key people within and outside of your
organisation to think creatively about the future?
3 How do you communicate the insights gained from scenarios and
integrate these into your future planning?

Benefits of scenario planning

• There can be great organisational learning through achieving a shared vision.
• It can be an engaging process.
• It can be liberating as it helps people to understand there’s not one single answer to
the challenges they face, and helps them think more actively about things to do
differently in the future.

“The benefits of scenario planning are that you enjoy the shift as
opposed to bemoan the fate.”
Gary Wiltshire, Consultant

• It allows people to adopt a more creative and open approach about their day-to-day
work. They can start to think outside the box.

“It dispels fear which can restrict creativity and make people feel more
confident.”
Fiona Dawe, Youthnet

• It can provide people with the intellectual stimulation that they may crave in their
every day role.
• Involving external stakeholders can help widen engagement, build relationships and
gather perspectives that aren’t usually heard in the traditional planning process.
• Looking beyond your operating environment to wider stakeholders can allow you to
establish a better bond with the outside world and situate yourself better in your
context. The process of scenario planning and others futures work can help
breakdown untested assumptions your organisation has about the wider world.
• It can help you to feel liberated from your operational plans and performance
indicators and can be powerful in helping you reconnect with your organisation’s
vision, mission and aspirations.

5
 “It gives energy, hope and happiness, life can be a struggle for
organisations; it is useful to have something to actualise.”
Tesse Akpeki, Consultant

• New intelligence; futures work can build new knowledge for your organisation.

“Because you are starting from the future/ a different place already –
new things emerge.”
Megan Griffith, Third Sector Foresight, NCVO

• It can highlight the skills and competencies that your organisation may be lacking
and that you need to develop for in the future.
• Funders will look favourably upon the fact that you are looking ahead, planning and
facing the future.
• It allows you to engage everybody so everybody’s voice gets heard.

Meeting the challenges of futures work

• It is not an easy process; it takes a lot of time and investment to simply get
people in the room in the first place.
• A lack of understanding about what futures work is, how to do it and what effect
it can have on your organisation can lead to fear and uncertainty about the
process which can restrict creativity.

“When we did this, we were terrified. We were walking in a small circle of

light but all around us, we didn’t know what was in the corners. It was scary
for a while but after a bit, all we could see were opportunities. It’s very
inspiring.”
Leila Ferguson, West Berkshire Mencap

• It can be a bit like Pandora’s box, you don’t know what is going to come out of it
which means you need to plan ahead for how your organisation is going to
manage that.
• Futures work can be a technical process with a lot of jargon which may be
overwhelming at first. It is essential that everyone understands the process.
While no one need learn all the jargon, it can be helpful to recognise that there
is a language to futures work which can shape and order what you do.
• Accept that there will be people who are cynical about imaginative and creative
futures work. Cynics can be useful in helping you shape your discussions and
pitch; they may be the people who feel disenfranchised in the organisation, who
haven’t heard well, or are raising legitimate and important fears.

“The future may well look quite grim but at least it’s been beneficial in
terms of getting you or others out of denial. This enables you to do
something about it.”
Karl Wilding, Head of Research, NCVO

6
 • Some people find it more difficult to think creatively so you need a good mix of
styles and experiences in the room. For instance the clarity of perspective of the
service user is vital, but users on their own may find it challenging to think about
the future in a way that is divorced from their current experience.
• There are many different ways you do this: Spend some time thinking about
representative organisations; their strategic responses and how they might fare
in each scenario. You can also think about the scenarios from the perspectives of
different stakeholders.
• Time scales can also be a challenge as it can be difficult to get people to shift
from thinking about firefighting and the ‘here and now,’ to thinking strategically;
this can be cultural change as well.
• Sometimes people get diverted with the interesting stuff which is not necessarily
relevant so keeping focused can be a challenge.
• Staff might find the process interesting but don’t quite see the relevance of how
to use the scenarios, especially getting from the long term (scenarios) to ‘what
we do now’ (strategy and action planning).
• The end product and the scenarios that emerge from the process often have low
credibility. It is important to give thought to how you want to use and
communicate your visions of the future e.g. using posters, computer animations,
stories in pamphlets.
• It can be hard to emancipate yourself from the original vision for your
organisation, which may be the funder’s rather than your own.

Watch out! Common pitfalls to futures work include:

- Decisions made too early in the process – without giving the creative stage
enough room.
- The context of the decision is too narrow.
- Insufficient engagement by employees in the decisions which are made.
- The organisation misjudges or prejudges how stakeholders will respond.

Helping people think creatively about the future

Do your homework

It is important to prepare well for the futures work itself, but also consider how your
organisation will approach futures work or scenario planning to get the most out of it as
a process.

• Get the right mix of knowledge and experience in the room; don’t be afraid to
populate the exercise with the expertise you need.
• Use existing processes and meetings to start the process off before you
introduce new techniques and events.
• Do warm up exercises before jumping into scenarios or future visioning; show
participants that it is fine to have different and conflicting views about the future,
and give them an opportunity to practice new ways of thought. Constructing a

7
 past narrative of how your organisation has got to where you are can be one
way of getting discussion going.
• Get the most out of any third party facilitators or consultants you use. They
should help build your internal capacity and skills – they can train staff and
stakeholders in facilitation as well as doing the work themselves.

Get a quick win

• If you’re having problems getting engagement because people don’t understand

the future uncertainty or the value of the process you’re using, start on
something smaller to get people involved.
• There are a number of techniques which can be used in half day sessions to
build on a trends review. These include:
− futures wheels
− qualitative cross-impact analysis
− SWOT analyses
− knowing what you don’t know: considering and analysing your
organisation’s knowledge gaps.
• Don’t worry about getting everybody on board right at the start of the process.

“If you can get the key people enthused, then the cynics with their arms
crossed will be pulled along.”
Leila Ferguson, West Berkshire Mencap

Build credibility

• Start with a good question. Making sure your focus question is precise will make
it easier to produce a strategy from your imagined futures.
• Make sure the benefits are understood across the organisation before you start,
a month of preparation beforehand is worth six months of explanation
afterwards.
• Make sure the process is inclusive.
• Get the people who will use the work to jointly produce the scenarios and
strategy with you; this will also help divide the workload involved.

Ensure transparency

• Using a workshop format can help a group of diverse stakeholders build shared
knowledge. Any structural or procedural change that follows the futures work
can be made easier as an open process can help get involvement and
commitment to a plan.
• Workshops are also often the best way to get the stakeholders to play a part in
producing the futures work, rather than just being an audience for it. They can
help transfer skills and promote engagement in the organisation’s vision and
mission.
• To be successful, workshops have to be part of an open process. The basic
principles of dialogue are:
− equality and the absence of forceful influences

8
 − listening with empathy; and
− bringing assumptions into the open

“We got alignment through involving people, which meant that the structural
stuff that had to follow was made easier through a shared common long term
goal.”
Fiona Dawe, Youthnet

Communicating the insights gained from scenarios

and integrating futures work into your planning

Getting from scenarios to strategy

Actions that are needed

whatever the scenario
(Imperatives)

Recommen-
dations for
Drivers of Strategic
Scenarios future
change implications
strategy &
action

Actions needed to reach

a preferred future outcome
(Preferences)

Involves assessing actions against capabilities and

competencies, identifying opportunities and
reviewing risks

© HenleyCentreHeadlightVision 16

Source Henley Centre HeadlightVision

What sort of stories help to communicate?

They have some of the following characteristics:

• They are open
− Easy to understand to let the reader enter them
− They have open endings
• They are plausible and have positives and negatives
• They are narratives
− There is a self-contained story
− They capture the everyday
− There provide a ‘backstory’ (from here to there)
− They are connected to the present

9
 − They include some evidence – some parts of the future may be already
occurring today
• They contain conflict. Stories are built on conflict – and so is futures work
• They leave the central choices open for the reader
− The character is revealed under pressure
• Use metaphors, pictures, poetry, drama; whatever will engage people within
your organisation and stimulate creativity in your colleagues, partners and users.

Taking action – incorporating insights into future strategies and plans

• It is best to analyse the stories or narratives to seek out any patterns or insights
about the future that they might share. Very often the analysis reveals strategies
and tactics that need to be adopted whatever the likely future scenario.
• Make sure each insight leads to some action, even if it’s only a note to keep your
eye on a trend.
• Don’t let anyone get carried away by any scenario – avoid developing plans for
every scenario and possible future. Scenarios and futures work should lead to
better planning, not more planning.
• It is the insights you get from looking across the range of different scenarios that
will prove of value and need to be considered for the long term.
• Make sure you keep the workshop participants and other stakeholders up to date
with the action you’ve taken – this will keep them motivated for next time.
• Consider the understandings that emerge around skills, knowledge and
relationships and make sure you develop an organisational learning agenda to
take them into account.

Tips for successful scenario planning and futures

work
• Prepare well.
• Try to pitch at the right level; use language that is familiar and meaningful to
people otherwise you risk alienating them - this will vary for different people. Be
self-aware and reflect on your process
• Make it fun and challenging; push yourself and your organisation out of your
comfort zone!
• Don’t overcomplicate. Use the skills you have already within an organisation,
managers shouldn’t always feel they have to lead and while good facilitation is
vital, it doesn’t necessarily have to come from a third party.
• Think about the different dimensions of the drivers – this can be done through
chart. For example think about different types of organisations or different
functions within organisations – services, campaigning and governance.

10
“While the future is uncertain and much of it is beyond our control, we can control many
aspects of it. We choose our future: we create it by what we do or fail to do.”

Wendy Schultz, ‘Defining Futures Fluency’

http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf

See the Henley Centre presentation

Download as a PDF (2.52 MB)

Further reading
Analysis of strategic drivers
• Voluntary Sector Strategic Analysis 2006/07 (NCVO, 2006)
This annual publication from Third Sector Foresight provides an overview of the
strategic drivers and operating environment for VCOs.
£7.50 (£5.25 NCVO Members)
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/vssa06/07
• Third Sector Foresight online trend database
From Autumn 2007, Third Sector Foresight will launch a new website which will
include up to 100 strategic drivers for the VCS. The site will be free to use.
www.3s4.org.uk
• Henley Centre Headlight Vision
Strategic Futures and Marketing Consultancy
www.henleycentre.com/
• The Next Wave
Andrew Curry’s trend blog
http://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com

Scenario planning tools and information

• Picture This: a guide to scenario planning for voluntary organisations, C Copeman,
NCVO 2006), £15 (£10.50 NCVO Members)
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/picturethis
• An example of scenario planning for an international development organisation, Neil
MacDonald
http://neil.macd.users.btopenworld.com/frames/e_papers/Success_is_extinction.pdf
• Defining Futures Fluency, Wendy Schultz
http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf

Tools on strategy and planning:

• Tools for Tomorrow – a practical guide to strategic planning for voluntary
organisations, (C Copeman et al, 2004), £35 (£24.50 NCVO members)
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk//tools
• Online version of the PEST tool from Tools for Tomorrow
www.ncvo-vol.org.uk/3sf/strategy/?id=2250

11
Appendix: Seminar participants

Tesse Akpeki Consultant

Octavia Allocco nfpSynergy

Liz Atkins National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Mark Bermingham Macmillan Cancer Support

Henrietta Blyth Christian Aid

Alex Bone Kings College London

Caroline Copeman Centre for Charity Effectiveness

Phil Copestake Office for Public Management (OPM)

Andrew Curry Henley Centre Headlight Vision

Fiona Dawe OBE YouthNet UK

Jake Eliot National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Leila Ferguson West Berkshire Mencap

Jacqui Finn South London CVS Partnership

Megan Griffith National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Trevor Hazelgrove Wessex Community Action

Ruth Jarratt Royal Opera House

Nicholas Johnston Royal National Institute of the Blind

Shashika Joseph Scope (Head Office)

Gill Leech West Berkshire Mencap

Luke Mallett DHIVERSE

Morven Masterton Carnegie UK Trust - London

Tina Molyneux Commission for Racial Equality- South East

12
Foster Murphy Charitable Futures

Richard Piper National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Marcia Roswell-Joseph London Funders

Sue Rudkin Charities Evaluation Services

Lenka Setkova Carnegie United Kingdom Trust

Mike Shallcross Conflict and Change

Oliver Shirley North Bristol Advice Centre

Paul Sypko BlueSpark Consulting LLP

Aidan Timlin Christian Aid

Johanna Tuomi Phoenix House

Erin Van der Maas Carnegie UK Trust - London

Karl Wilding National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Natalie Williams National Council for Voluntary Organisations

Tim Wilson Charities Evaluation Services

Gary Wiltshire Inspiring Vision LLP

13