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Chapter 13. Risk & Return in Asset Pricing Models Chapter 13. Risk & Return in Asset Pricing Models
Chapter 13. Risk & Return in Asset Pricing Models Chapter 13. Risk & Return in Asset Pricing Models
Chapter 13. Risk & Return in Asset Pricing Models Chapter 13. Risk & Return in Asset Pricing Models
• Portfolio Theory
• Managing Risk
• Asset Pricing Models
I. Portfolio Theory
• R is ex post
• based on past data, and is known
• R is typically annualized
example 1
SQRT(
example 1
= (.2)(10%-2%)2
+ (.4)(5%-2%)2
+ (.4)(-5%-2%)2
= .0039
= 6.24%
example 2
= (.3)(1%-2%)2
+ (.4)(2%-2%)2
+ (.3)(3%-2%)2
= .00006
= .77%
• same expected return
• but example 2 has a lower risk
• preferred by risk averse investors
• variance works best with symmetric
distributions
prob(R) prob(R)
R R
E(R) E(R)
symmetric asymmetric
II. Managing risk
• Diversification
• holding a group of assets
• lower risk w/out lowering E(R)
• Why?
• individual assets do not have same
return pattern
• combining assets reduces overall
return variation
two types of risk
• unsystematic risk
• specific to a firm
• can be eliminated through
diversification
• examples:
-- Safeway and a strike
-- Microsoft and antitrust cases
• systematic risk
• market risk
• cannot be eliminated through
diversification
• due to factors affecting all assets
-- energy prices, interest rates,
inflation, business cycles
example
systematic
risk
# assets
measuring relative risk
• estimated by regression
• data on returns of assets
• data on returns of market index
• estimate
R R m
problems
• CAPM
• Capital Asset Pricing Model
• 1964, Sharpe, Linter
• quantifies the risk/return tradeoff
assume
E( R ) R f [ E( R m ) R f ]
where
E( R ) R f is the portfolio risk premium
E( R m ) R f is the market risk premium
so if
E( R ) R f > E( R m ) R f
E( R ) > E( R m )