Scenario Thinking

Future of the
European Union
in 2030

1
 Project Members

Sameer Agarwal Sri Hari Krishnan

The Pacesetter The Skeptic

Arthur Danzi
The Green Guy

Gudmundur Kristjansson Mauricio Suzuki

The Challenger The Checker

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Agenda
 Background
 Scenarios
 Summary
 QA

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Future of the European Union in 2030
Situation
 Europe's longest peace period
 Introduction of the Euro highly successful
 EU politics and treaties evolving
Key Questions
 How is the European Union Governed?
 What are the main bodies of the EU?
 How does the EU take decisions?
 What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
 What are the policies of the EU?
 What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?
 What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
 EU's response to climate change?
 What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
 What can cause the instability of the Euro?
 What are trade statistics for the EU?
 Does European Union really bond its members together?
 What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?
 Population of the EU and how is it distributed?

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Analysis References Highlights
Scenario Reports
 NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue:
Budapest, Hungary
 New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
 European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
 Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States
 Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector:
Scenarios (pdf)
 Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe to 2030
 Could we imagine another future for Europe? (very good resource)
Research Papers, Books and Chapters
 Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
 Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
 Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality.
Oxford: Blackwell.
 Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
 Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
 Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
 Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
 Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for
European studies. Baden-Baden
 Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
 Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
 Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
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Videos
 Why Ireland should vote No to the Lisbon Treaty
 The European Union - the New Soviet Union?
 Barroso: European Union is 'empire'
 Should the UK leave the European Union?
 Interview - Jose Manuel Barroso
 Economic future of EU is Green" Philippe Lamberts from EGP on EU
Elections
 Davos Open Forum 2006 - The Future of Europe in the World
 EU European Union Strasbourg Parliament Poster Pentagrams
 The Rise of the European Superstate
 An alternative view of the European Union
 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic
Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference
News & Other Sources
 Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
 Economic Problems of European Union
 Immigration Problems in EU
 Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?
 Q&A: EU enlargementAbout the European Union on Wikipedia
Our view of the EU System
Resources/Energy

Population Change

Economy

Boundary
Commerce/Trade
Immigration

Governance

Identity
Financial

Political Alignment
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Getting down to Scenarios
The Blame Game The New Beginning The Gilded Cage

Governance National Network Supranational union

Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth

Identity Inward Outward -

Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is

Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline

Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism

Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free

Resources/Energy Energy Scarcity Sources of energy Energy Scarcity

Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive

Population Change Aging Europe Increasing Mobility Aging Europe

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 Scenarios for the Future of the EU in 2030

The Blame Game

r ence
fe
Dif

What is the focus

on politics on identity? Simila
rity

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Depression Restrict Identity

ive
policies crisis
Social
backlash
Unemploym National
ent
Agendas

Anti Political
Panic n conflict The
Immigratio

Financial
Anti
Blame
crisis
Euro Game
sentiment
Liquidity
Protective
crunch policies
Ideological Nationalism
conflict Energy
dependen
ce
Economic Focus The Sta
rt of
Collapse
Rise of
on t he
Left wing Disinte
Survival g ra t i on
of EU

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 Scenarios for the Future of the EU in 2030

The Blame Game

r ence
fe
Dif The Gilded Cage

What is the focus No

on politics on identity? Simila
rity

Is there capacity for renewal? Yes

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Emergence
of
Depression BRIICS
Centralized
Impro Power
v
Gover ed
EU nance
Unemployment Stabilizes
Stable EU

Efficient
Growth Common Financial No
Stagnant EU
system Significant
Policy Change

Financial EU EU
Crisis Turnaround Identity Less
Influence

New Focus on
Emerging
The
Strategy Centralized
Control
markets Gilded
Cage
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 Scenarios for the Future of the EU in 2030

The Blame Game

r ence
fe
Dif The Gilded Cage

What is the focus No

on politics on identity? Simila
rity

Is there capacity for renewal? Yes

New Beginning

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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

End Mediterranean
Sea Inter Sea
of Union
Bridge Dependency Bridge
Financial
Commissioned Project
Crisis

Stable Development
Growth Economic Free Trade
Growth
Investments Solar Fa Positive
rm s Networked
Secured Trial Results
Balanced Energy
Growth
in EU North Africa Nordic
Implements
Expansion Network
n
Expansio of EU Government
of EU
New
Sustainable The
Green Technologies Network
Benelux Beg New
Revolution Governanc Network inni
Proposed
e ng
Trial

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 Scenarios for the Future of the EU in 2030

The Blame Game

r ence
fe
Dif The Gilded Cage

What is the focus No

on politics on identity? Simila
rity

Is there capacity for renewal? Yes

New Beginning

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 Future of the
European Union
in 2030

QA

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 Future of the
European Union
in 2030

Appendix

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Driving Forces
 Political Driving Forces
 Political Stability in Europe
 Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics
 To be a world power house
 Turkey Joining the EU
 Movement Towards World Unification
 Islamic Fundamentalism
 Technological Driving Forces
 Alternative sources of energy
 Environmental Driving Forces
 Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices
 Pressure from developing countries
 Effects of climate change
 Economic Driving Forces
 EU as a Counterweight to America
 Energy Scarcity in Europe
 The increasing globalization of markets
 Societal Driving Forces
 Increasing Mobility
 Aging Europe
 Unemployment
 Racism

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