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Presentation - H1fy09 Results
Presentation - H1fy09 Results
October 2008
Agenda
• UB Group: The growth story (slide 3)
• Airline Industry Overview (slide 9)
• Kingfisher Airlines Overview (slide 18)
• KFA Financials (slide 25)
• KFA Outlook (slide 31)
2
31st October 2008
UB Group: Growth Story
3
UB Group’s growth story
SUCCESS MANTRAS
• India’s Leading branded consumer group
• Has dominated domestic market
− Accelerated organic growth
− Acquisitions
• Is Globally Competitive
• Has set standards of governance and transparency
4
31st October 2008
No. 1 Beer in No. 1 Spirits in No. 1 Airline in
India India India What next?
Merged Hebert- Kept acquiring Brought in Scottish Acquired 100% Acquired further KFA merged in
sons into MCD smaller players in New Castle stake in Whyte 20% stake in DAL and the
beer and liquor and Mackay, Deccan Aviation merged entity
industry. through open offer renamed as
worlds 4th largest
Market gave Kingfisher
scotch company
thumbs up as Airlines
Margins doubled Limited
to 18% because of
synergies
UB2002
Group 2003 2005 2007 2007 2008
TIMELINE
Bought Gilbey BUILT BRANDS Acquired Acquired 26% in Announced merger Announced
Green lablel LIKE Shaw Wallace of KFA with
Deccan Aviation- Alliance with
KINGFISHER, Deccan,; Acquired Jet Airways
BAGPIPER,
& Co Ltd further 3% stake in
BLACK DOG … Deccan Aviation to
Consolidated Beer
increase the holding
business under
to about 50%
UBL and liquor
business under
USL
UB group has become the market leader in each core business it has ventured into
31st October 2008
United Spirits Limited
3 Years ago • Strong EBITDA growth Now
• World’s No.3 distiller
• Multiple legal entities • 17 Millionaire brands
• One legal entity
• McDowell No 1 family is the largest spirits brand
in the world with sales of 27.6 million cases( FY • Primarily top-line and
• Primarily volume focus
2008) profitability focus
• Growth driven by
• Growth driven by • McDowell No1 family becomes the largest FMCG increased “premium-
market share across brand in terms of retail sales value* ness” of the portfolio
segments
• Mc Dowell No 1 Brandy – Worlds largest selling • Integrated player
brandy across spirits and
• “Spirits” player wines
• Bagpiper Whisky – largest selling in the world • Global ambitions –
pragmatically
• Focus on India • Pan-Indian presence - largest manufacturing/ calibrated
distribution set up
• Accountability for 3
• Focus on annual • Leadership across flavors, geographies and price year strategic plan
performance points
• Export unit targeting Indian communities living • EBDITA 22%
• EBDITA 8.50% abroad
• UBL is the largest beer company in India with a market share in excess of
45%
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31st October 2008
Aviation
• Current Fleet size of 86 aircraft (50 Airbus NBs and 36 ATR’s). Market
Share of 27.5%. Network coverage of 64 cities operating over 400 flights a
day. Over 34 million guests flown since inception.
8
31st October 2008
Indian Airline Industry
Overview
9
The economy looks up when we fly
IX J IX J
IXD
PH M
ATQ ATQ KU U
SLV
IX C IX C
D EL D EL
D IB D IB
IX I
JA I T E ZJR H JA I T E ZJR H
JD H LKO IX B JD H LKO GOP IX B
GW L GAU DMU GW L GAU DMU
SH L
VNS PAT I X DV N S PAT
I X SI M F I X SI M F
UDR H JR UDR H JR
IX A A JL IX A A JL
BH J B IHX JY
AM D BHO IX R AM D BH O JL R IX R
J GR
AAJ ID R CCU JGR
AAJ ID R CCU
BD Q BD Q
PBD BHU PBD BH U
D IU N AG R PR D IU STV N AG RPR
IX U BBI IX U BBI
BOM BOM
PN Q PNQ
VTZ VTZ
H YD H YD
R JA
KLH
VGA
IX G
GOI GOI H BX
BEP
PUT
T IR T IR
IX E BLR M AA IX E BLR M AA
IX Z IX Z
C C JC J B AGX C C JC J B
TRZ TRZ
CO K CO K
IX M IX M
TRV T R VT C R
11
129 new routes connecting 22 cities were added from 2000 to 2007
31st October 2008
Indian Aviation Industry growth to exceed 25% CAGR
In the past few years, domestic Enabling the following macro economic conditions
industry has grown at CAGR of 31% would ensure continued growth:
KPMG report states that India’s air traffic will exceed the projected 25.4% CAGR for 2008
and expected to grow 2-3 times by 2012
12
31st October 2008
Airline industry: India vs. International
ATF prices are ~ 50% higher than international markets
(Estimated impact $ 1.5bn)
¾ Tax incidence ~ 50% on base price As a result airline companies are incurring heavy
losses while govt. and service providers are
¾ In contrast, the rest of the transportation industry has access to
significantly gaining at its expense
fuel at subsidized rates ~ 29% subsidy on petrol and 47% on
diesel
• Central & State Govt. – $1.5bn
Additional fuel consumption of ~10% due to airport congestion
(Excise duty, Custom Duty, Sales-tax, Entry tax)
(Estimated impact $0.5bn)
Despite its economic significance, growing contribution to Indian economy and increasingly adverse fuel situation, the
industry has been subjected to significant disadvantages
13
31st October 2008
Consolidation to pave way for rationalization
Industry consolidation would be driven through exit of fringe players and rational capacity addition linked to demand by
existing players in the near term. This would assist in driving-up load factors and realizations
th
14 * All fares for key metro sectors across countries equated to DEL-BOM distance (1167Km). Fares for Aug 18 from local airline websites; Fuel prices for Jun08
31st October 2008
Impact of the first round of consolidation
MDLR, 0.2%
Paramount, 1.7%
Indigo, 10.1%
Go, 1.8% UB Group, 27.5%
Spice, 7.9%
9 carriers
99 carriers reduce
carriers reduce to
to 333 players
reduce to players
players
Top
Top333 players
Top players control
control close
players control over
over
to
80%80% of the market
market
80% market
15
31st October 2008
Jet Airways & Kingfisher Airlines working together
16
31st October 2008
UB group has a history of successfully managing highly regulated,
capacity surplus industries and turnaround acquisitions
• Spirits business in India is characterized by • Achieved ~ 50% share of volumes in the segment United Spirits
− High fragmentation operates and 60% share of value
− Over capacity
− Market segmented by multiple price points • Latest EBITDA margin 22% (similar to major multinational
companies)
Current Indian aviation industry scenario is similar to spirits industry 5 years ago
17
31st October 2008
Kingfisher Airlines Overview
18
Unique high product quality with low cost
Best brands in the Airline Industry
• KFA is the 2nd ‘Buzziest Brand’ in the country
• Deccan voted the “Best Indian Budget Airline”*
• The airline has the widest network in India, flying to all major business & leisure destinations in the country
covering > 95% of the addressable passenger base
• “Uniquely flexible” strategy to benefit from higher realizations on business routes and transition to low cost
if yield declines
20
31st October 2008
KFA’s fleet plan has tremendous flexibility
• KFA fleet plan is based on A320 which remains a high value/high demand asset
− Group has current Airbus fleet size of 50 and net addition of 10 aircraft till Mar 2011
− There is a shortage of A320 in global markets; 166 orders of narrow bodies in the recently concluded air show
− This provides the flexibility to contract in short-term while maintaining longer-term growth potential
− No ATR additions in the current year
21
31st October 2008
Proactive steps: Capacity addition
Approach to detailed Route wise Potential deployment opportunities
profitability assessment based on detailed route wise profitability
• Conducted detailed assessment of route traffic potential based • Potential route deployments planned for wide body aircraft
on data sources like IATA Pax-IS, MIDT • A 330
• Analyzed route wise competitive market share, product, − BLR – LHR
schedule
− BOM – LHR
• Defined class-wise projections on pure O&D traffic and feeder
markets − BOM – SIN
• Assessed the impact of Kingfisher market entry on route • Wide body Fleet status
capacity − 5 A340s replaced by A330
• Defined detailed projections of all operational and fixed costs at − No further wide body aircraft induction for the next 2 year
multiple fuel price scenarios
22
31st October 2008
KF is leading the industry towards a structure where Vendors to Airline companies
make only a reasonable return
Fuel companies & state Returns for fuel companies and tax revenues for Savings of Rs 9-10 / litre targeted through
governments govt.- Rs 18-20/ ltr sales tax and discounts of Rs 2/ ltr
Other opportunities: AAI operating profits at 40% Reduce current landing charges by 50%;
representation by industry supported by civil
Airport Authority of India Current profits ~ Rs 400 cr. p.a. aviation ministry
Above initiatives except AAI opportunity would lead to savings of over Rs 50-55 cr/ month
23
31st October 2008
Further reduction in non-fuel costs is being targeted
24
31st October 2008
What is the impact on the
KFA Financials?
25
KFA Results: H1FY2009 Highlights
• The spiraling fuel costs have created an unprecedented and adverse impact on the operations
• The average fuel price in the six month period April to September 2008 has increased by close to 60%
and this increase resulted in an impact of INR 640 crores on the Company’s fuel bill. The average per
kiloliter price in this period (H1 FY09) was INR 61,400.
• The Company in order to overcome these increasing costs was constrained to pass on a part of the
costs to the traveling customer in form of higher fuel surcharges resulting in increased pricing to the
customer.
• The increase in fares coupled with the lean season (June to September) witnessed a drop in
passenger traffic and corresponding seat factor not just for the Company but also for the industry.
The period saw Kingfisher’s seat factor dropping in line with the industry by about 6%.
26
31st October 2008
KFA Results: H1FY2009 Highlights
In order to manage this challenging scenario, the Company has initiated various measures to manage
costs:
• Network alignment on merger and continuous review of poor performing flights, has resulted in
a reduction in capacity to the extent of around 4% during this 6 month period with further
reductions planned.
• The reduction of capacity was achieved more in the second quarter of this year i.e. July to
September 2008 where the reduction achieved was close to 15% as compared to Q2 FY08 i.e.
July to September 2007.
• As a result of this exercise, the Company has returned 2 aircraft and is in discussions to return
an additional 8 aircraft. The impact of these returns will be seen in H2 FY09.
• Deferred international roll-out plans apart from one flight operating between Bangalore and
London. Reduced deployment of wide-body aircraft in the near term.
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31st October 2008
KFA Results: H1FY2009 Highlights
• Employee Costs
28
31st October 2008
KFA Results: H1FY2009 Highlights
29
31st October 2008
KFA Results: H1FY2009 Highlights
30
31st October 2008
KFA Outlook
31
KFA - Outlook
• The softening of the fuel prices has resulted in an improvement in the Company’s performance in
September 2008 (fuel prices reduced by 15.5%). Given the further drop in fuel prices, the Company
expects a better performance in H2 FY09.
• The recently announced alliance between Kingfisher Airlines and Jet Airways is expected to help both
carriers to significantly rationalize and reduce costs by offering a unique high product quality with
improved standards of service to its consumers.
• The two airlines will be able to derive maximum synergies by working together and thereby offer best
possible fares for the benefit of the end users i.e. the travelling customer.
32
31st October 2008
KFA - Outlook
The scope of this alliance is expected to include the following on the operational and cost aspect:
• Joint fuel management to reduce fuel expenses
• Common ground handling of the highest quality
• Common Global Distribution system platform
• Cross utilization of crew on similar aircraft types and commonality of training as also of the technical resources, subject
to DGCA approval
Areas covered on the revenues and revenue related operational aspects are :
• Code-shares on both domestic and international flights subject to DGCA approval
• Interline/Special Prorate agreements to leverage the joint network deploying 189 aircraft offering 927 domestic and 82
International flights daily
• Joint Network rationalization and synergies
• Cross selling of flight inventories
• Reciprocity in Jet Privilege and King Club frequent flier programs
33
31st October 2008
In Summary…
• Further Consolidation would result in exit of • KFA is the cost player in the industry with
fringe players; rational capacity addition and best product offering
viable pricing
• Fuel prices are expected to stabilize to around • KFA has prepared a pro-active plan to
$70-90 /barrel in next 6-12 months overcome difficult fuel situation
Kingfisher Airlines would emerge a stronger airline in the next 6-12 months from the current situation
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31st October 2008
Thank you