PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

INDEPENDENT POLL

FALL 2010 – NOVEMBER 2ND ELECTIONS

“THE BENCHMARK OF MAINE PUBLIC OPINION”

5 Milk Street, Portland, Maine 04101
Tel: (207) 871-8622
www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com

Named Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 by:

 2 BACKGROUND & METHODOLOGY

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

Pan Atlantic SMS Group
 Background
3

 Pan Atlantic SMS Group is Maine’s largest independent marketing research and
marketing consulting firm and is currently in its 26 th year of successful operation.
PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP

 Pan Atlantic SMS group conducts statewide Omnibus surveys on Maine public
policy, economic and business issues on a regular basis. The results presented in this
report are a follow up to our Elections 2010 poll released on October 19 th, 2010 and
the third in our series of 2010 Elections polls.

 Pan Atlantic SMS Group reserves all copyright and property rights associated with
this polling report. Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS
Group Omnibus Poll must identify the source of information. Reproduction, by
any party other than the media, is subject to express approval by Pan Atlantic SMS
Group. For further information, please contact Patrick Murphy, President of Pan
Atlantic SMS Group, at (207) 871-8622 or by e-mail at
pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Methodology
4
 The most recent Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll was conducted over three
nights between October 25th and 28th, 2010. This independent survey data on the
November 2010 elections is being released to the Maine media in the public interest.

 A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 400 “likely” Maine voters was
interviewed by telephone. Each Congressional District had approximately half of
the sample. The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following
criteria:
 Registered Maine voter
 Voted in the 2008 Presidential Elections
METHODOLOGY

 “Certain”, “Very likely”, or “Likely” to vote in the November 2010 Elections.

 Do not, nor anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or
media firm.

 The poll was conducted by phone, in our in-house interviewing center, by Pan
Atlantic’s team of experienced interviewers. No outside interviewer sources were
used.

 Survey results were weighted to ensure that the poll results are representative of the
various demographic segments of Maine’s population.
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group
 Methodology
5

 It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of
decimals.

 Although the survey instrument was administered only to registered voters who said that
they are likely to vote on November 2nd, the results contained herein represent a snapshot
of voters’ opinions at a point in time. They do not purport to predict final election
results.

 The sample was stratified based on the most recently available U.S. Census of Population
and Housing data. The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.9 percent at the 95
METHODOLOGY

percent confidence level. This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out
of 100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the + 4.9 percent margin of
error.

The Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus poll is an independent poll. Pan Atlantic SMS
Group has not been paid by or acted as volunteer to any of the campaigns on which
data is reported in this poll.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 6 KEY FINDINGS

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a
new governor. If today were Election Day, who
would you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]
7

40%
36.8%
35%
30% 30.6%

25%
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

29.8% 21.8%
20% 20.8%
Vote
15% 16.5% Lean
10%
7.3%
5% 9.8%
7.0% 5.3% 2.8% 1.1%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Elliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell Shawn Moody Kevin Scott (I) Undecided
(D) (I)

Vote 29.8% 20.8% 16.5% 1.5% 0.8% --

Lean 7.0% 9.8% 5.3% 1.3% 0.3% --
Total 36.8% 30.6% 21.8% 2.8% 1.1% 7.3%

 Paul LePage (R) has the support of 36.8% of “likely voters” (vote yes / lean yes) and leads
the field by a margin of 6.2 percentage points.
 Eliot Cutler (I) follows, with 30.5% of “likely voters” and Libby Mitchell (D) is at 21.8%

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a
new governor. If today were Election Day, who
would you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]
8

 Shawn Moody (2.8%) and Kevin Scott (1.1%) bring up the rear of the field.
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

 While the margin for Paul LePage in this poll is not quite as high as those
reported in the just released Rasmussen and Public Policy Polling robocall
polls, he continues to maintain the lead.

 Nineteen percent (19.0%) of Paul LePage’s support comes from “leaners”

(7.0% ÷ 36.8%), while 32.0% of Eliot Cutler and 24.3% of Libby Mitchell
supporters are “leaners”.

 The undecided vote level is 7.3% of the ‘likely voter” population.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Polling Averages

Average
Pan Atlantic SMS Rasmussen Public Policy of all 3
Group (Live (Robocall poll) (Robocall poll) polls
interviewer poll) (Released Oct. 28th) (Released Oct. 29th)
(Released Oct. 29)
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

LePage (R) 37% 40% 40% 39%

Cutler (I) 31% 26% 28% 28%
Mitchell (D) 22% 26% 24% 24%
Moody (I) 3% * 4% 4%
Scott (I) 1% * 1% 1%
Undecided 7% 8% 2% 6%

 Averaging all three polls, Paul LePage has an eleven point lean over Eliot Cutler
and a fifteen point lead over Libby Mitchell.
- All percentage points are rounded to yield whole numbers.
* The Rasmussen poll did not offer Shawn Moody or Kevin Scott as choices.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group 9

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new governor. If
today were Election Day, who would you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]

10

Gubernatorial Race Choice by Political Affiliation – Top Three

80% 71.4%
70%
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

60%
50% 44.2% 46.2%
40% 32.8%
30.8%
30%
18.8%
20% 12.5%
10.3% 8.7%
10% 3.8% 6.4% 3.0%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Eliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell (D) Undecided
Democrat Republican Independent

 Paul LePage has the support of 71.4% of Republicans, 30.8% of Independents and 10.3%
of Democrats.
 Eliot Cutler is supported by 44.2% of Independents, 32.8 % of Democrats and 18.8% of
Republicans.
 Libby Mitchell has the support of 46.2% of Democrats, 8.7% of Independents and 3.8% of
Republicans.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new governor. If today
were Election Day, who would you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]

11

Gubernatorial Race by Congressional District

45%
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

40% 38.7%
35.0%
35%
30.1% 30.9%
30%

25% 23.3%
20.1%
20%

15%

10% 8.8%
5.8%
4.4%
5%
1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Eliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided
(D)

1st Congressional District 2nd Congressional District

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

Pan Atlantic SMS Group
 Voting Pattern by Congressional District
12

Congressional District 1 Congressional District 2

NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

Paul LePage (R) 35.0% 38.7%

Eliot Cutler (I) 30.1% 30.9%

Libby Mitchell (D) 23.3% 20.1%

Shawn Moody (I) 4.4% 1.0%

Kevin Scott (I) 1.5% 0.5%

Undecided 5.8% 8.8%

 Paul LePage has the highest support level in both the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts
(35.0% 1st CD and 38.7% 2nd CD).

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 On November 2nd, Mainers will vote to elect a new governor. If today were
Election Day, who would you vote for?
[Candidate options were read and rotated]

13

Gubernatorial Race by Gender

45%
39.1%
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

40%
34.5%
35% 32.0%
30% 28.9%

25% 24.1%
19.3%
20%
15%
10% 8.6%
5.9%
5% 3.6%
2.0% 1.5%
0.5%
0%
Paul LePage (R ) Elliot Cutler (I) Libby Mitchell (D) Shawn Moody (I) Kevin Scott (I) Undecided

Males Females

 No candidate has the majority support of either gender. LePage and Cutler have reasonably
equal support levels among both males and females, while women tend to support Mitchell
more than men.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Voters by Age Segment (vote / lean)
14

Undecide
LePage Cutler Mitchell Other
Age Segment d
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

18-34 years 32.1% 23.2% 33.9% 5.4% 5.4%

35-54
39.9% 27.4% 20.2% 4.3% 8.2%
years

55+
33.3% 38.5% 19.3% 2.2% 6.7%
years

 Paul LePage does best in the 35-54 year age segment (39.9%) while Eliot Cutler does best
in the 55+ segment (38.5%) and Libby Mitchell does best in the 18-34 year segment
(33.9%).

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 QUESTION 1 – CASINO QUESTION
Q. Do you want to allow a casino with table games and slot machines at
a single site in Oxford County, subject to local approval, with part of the
profits going to specific state, local and tribal programs?
15

Question 1: Oxford County Casino

60%
50.6%
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

50% 4.8% 46.8%

2.5%
40%

30% Lean
Vote
45.8% 44.3%
20%

10%

0% 2.8%
Vote For Vote Against Undecided

 At this point, the margin in favor of the casino referendum is low, at 3.8 percentage
points. (50.6% vote / lean “yes” vs. 46.9% vote / lean “no”).
 The undecided level has declined by 3.4 percentage points since our mid-October poll.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 QUESTION 1 – CASINO QUESTION
Q. Do you want to allow a casino with table games and slot machines at a single site in Oxford
County, subject to local approval, with part of the profits going to specific state, local and tribal
programs?
16

 The “leaning yes” vote (softer vote) (4.8%) is approximately twice that of the
“leaning no” vote (2.5%).
NOVEMBER 2010 ELECTIONS

 Voters in the 2nd Congressional District (50.0% against, 45.9% for) are more
opposed to the casino than those in the 1st Congressional District (54.9% for,
43.7% against).

 Should turnout levels in the 2nd Congressional District be stronger than those in
the 1st Congressional District, this could impact the final result.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

17 KEY POLL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 Key Poll Demographic Data
18

GENDER %
Females 51%
Males 49%

POLITICAL AFFILIATION %
Democrats 38%
Republicans 34%
Independents / Unenrolled 26%
Other 2%

BY AGE SEGMENT %
18-34 15%
35-44 26%
45-54 26%
55-64 19%
65+ 15%

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008 Pan Atlantic SMS Group

 19

5 MILK STREET
PORTLAND, MAINE 04101
207.871.8622
WWW.PANATLANTICSMSGROUP.COM

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008

Pan Atlantic SMS Group