4G - A Look Into the Future of Wireless Communications

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By: Allen H. Kupetz and K. Terrell Brown
Copyright © 2003 Allen H. Kupetz

What is 4G?

“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

Arthur C. Clarke

First generation (1G) wireless telecommunications – the brick-like analog phones

that are now collector’s items - introduced the cellular architecture that is still being offered
by most wireless companies today. Second generation (2G) wireless supported more users
within a cell by using digital technology, which allowed many callers to use the same
multiplexed channel. But 2G was still primarily meant for voice communications, not data,
except some very low data-rate features, like short messaging service (SMS). So-called
2.5G allowed carriers to increase data rates with a software upgrade at the base
transceivers stations (BTS), as long as consumers purchased new phones too. Third
generation (3G) wireless offers the promise of greater bandwidth, basically bigger data
pipes to users, which will allow them to send and receive more information.

All of these architectures, however, are still cellular. The cellular architecture is
sometimes referred to as a “star architecture” or “star topology” or “spoke and hub,”
because users within that cell access a common, centralized BTS. The advantage is that
given enough time and money, carriers can build nationwide networks, which most of the
big carriers have done. Some of the disadvantages include a singular point of failure, no
load balancing, and spectral inefficiencies. The single biggest disadvantage to cellular
networks going forward is that as data rates increase, output power will have to increase, or
the size of the cells will have to decrease to support those higher data rates. Since
significant increases in output power scare both consumers and regulators, it is far more
likely that we will see significantly smaller cells. This will further reduce the return on
investment in already fragile 3G business plans.

Fourth generation (4G) wireless was originally conceived by the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the same organization that developed the wired
Internet. It is not surprising, then, that DARPA chose the same distributed architecture for
the wireless Internet that had proven so successful in the wired Internet. Although experts
and policymakers have yet to agree on all the aspects of 4G wireless, two characteristics
have emerged as all but certain components of 4G: end-to-end Internet Protocol (IP), and
peer-to-peer networking. An all IP network makes sense because consumers will want to
use the same data applications they are used to in wired networks. Peer-to-peer networks,
where every device is both a transceiver and a router/repeater for other devices in the
network, eliminates this spoke-and-hub weakness of cellular architectures, because the
elimination of a single node does not disable the network. The final definition of “4G” will
have to include something as simple as this: if a consumer can do it at home or in the office
while wired to the Internet, that consumer must be able to do it wirelessly in a fully mobile
environment.

Let’s define “4G” as “wireless ad hoc peer-to-peer networking.” 4G technology is

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significant because users joining the network add mobile routers to the network
infrastructure. Because users carry much of the network with them, network capacity and
coverage is dynamically shifted to accommodate changing user patterns. As people
congregate and create pockets of high demand, they also create additional routes for each
other, thus enabling additional access to network capacity. Users will automatically hop
away from congested routes to less congested routes. This permits the network to
dynamically and automatically self-balance capacity, and increase network utilization. What
may not be obvious is that when user devices act as routers, these devices are actually part
of the network infrastructure. So instead of carriers subsidizing the cost of user devices
(e.g., handsets, PDAs, of laptop computers), consumers actually subsidize and help deploy
the network for the carrier.

With a cellular infrastructure, users contribute nothing to the network. They are just
consumers competing for resources. But in wireless ad hoc peer-to-peer networks, users
cooperate – rather than compete – for network resources. Thus, as the service gains
popularity and the number of users increases, service likewise improves for all users.

And there is also the 80/20 rule. With traditional wireless networks, about 80% of
the cost is for site acquisition and installation, and just 20% is for the technology. Rising
land and labor costs means installation costs tend to rise over time, subjecting the service
providers’ business models to some challenging issues in the out years. With wireless
peer-to-peer networking, however, about 80% of the cost is the technology and only 20% is
the installation. Because technology costs tend to decline over time, a current viable
business model should only become more profitable over time. The devices will get
cheaper, and service providers will reach economies of scale sooner because they will be
able to pass on the infrastructure savings to consumers, which will further increase the rate
of penetration.

The 4G Car

With the hype of 3G wireless in the rear view mirror, but the reality of truly mobile
broadband data seemingly too far in the future to be visible yet on the information super
highway, it may seem premature to offer a test drive 4G. But the good news is, 4G is finally
coming to a showroom near you.

You’ve probably seen those television commercials with Batmani locking his keys in
the Bat Mobile and calling OnStar to open his door remotely. This service also gives the
Dark Knight access to personal concierge services, roadside assistance, and – in the event
of a bad encounter with the Joker – can even send his medical records to the Gotham
Hospital, for about US$69.95 per month.ii The magic of OnStar is a combination of an
analog cellular network, the Global Positioning System (GPS), and a staff of employees
who manually process many of Batman’s requests. “Holy twentieth century,” Robin might
say.

In the event of another Batman sequel, he might want to save Gotham and the rest
of the world with a 4G car, which can talk directly to other cars, get real-time streaming
audio and video, obtain geo-location services with greater accuracy than GPS, and
download his favorite Web sites. And he’ll be able to do all this at 60 mph at download
speeds faster than when he is sitting back in the Bat Cave with a cable modem.

To quote Bob Dylan, “The times, they are a changing.” The notion of browsing the
Internet at 60 mph is a reality today, although everyone hopes it is not the driver of the
vehicle actually do the browsing. The data rates can exceed the fixed-line rates of DSL or
cable modems. And forget about $400 worth of equipment in the car; how about an ASIC
costing less than US$50 per vehicle?

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4G and Public Safety

For the parents of baby boomers, December 7, 1941 was the day that would live in
infamy. September 11, 2001 merits the same sad distinction for the children of baby
boomers. The events of September 11 also have meant profound changes for this
country’s police, fire, and emergency medical services, our “first responders.” Though they
have always trained for disasters, both natural and criminal, there is a new urgency to give
the men and women on the ground more tools to deal with these disasters.

Although not directly tied to the events on September 11, there are sweeping
changes taking place in transportation and intelligent highways, generally referred to as
“Intelligent Transportation Systems” (ITS). ITS is comprised of a number of technologies,
including information processing, communications, control, and electronics.iii Using these
technologies with our transportation systems, and allowing first responders access to them,
will help prevent - or certainly mitigate - future disasters.

Communications, and the cooperation and collaboration it affords, is a key element

of any effective disaster response. Historically, this has been done with bulky handheld
radios that provide only voice to a team in a common sector. And this architecture is still
cellular, with a singular point of failure, because all transmissions to a given cell must pass
through that one cell. If the cell tower is destroyed in the disaster, traditional wireless
service is eliminated.

4G wireless eliminates this spoke-and-hub weaknesses of cellular architectures

because the destruction of a single node does not disable the network. Instead of a user
being dependent on a cell tower, that user can hop through other users in dynamic, self-
forming, self-healing rings. This is reason enough to make this technology available to first
responders. But there is more: mobility, streaming audio and video, high-speed Internet,
real-time asset awareness, geo-location, and in-building rescue support. All this, at speeds
that rival cable modems and DSL.

Combining 4G with ITS infrastructure makes both more robust. In 4G architectures,

the network improves as the number of users increases. ITS offers the network lots of
users, and therefore more robustness. Think of every light pole on a highway as a network
element, a “user” that is acting as a router/repeater for first responders traveling on those
highways. Think of every traffic light as a network element, ideally situated in the center of
intersections with a 360-degree view of traffic. This is the power of the marriage between
4G networks and ITS.

Incorporating 4G architectures with ITS can create numerous public safety

applications.

Sensors on Public Vehicles Putting a chemical-biological-nuclear (CBN) warning

sensor on every government-owned vehicle instantly creates a mobile fleet that is the
equivalent of an army of highly trained dogs. As these vehicles go about their daily duties
of law enforcement, garbage collection, sewage and water maintenance, etc., municipalities
get the added benefit of early detection of CBN agents. The sensors on the vehicles can
talk to fixed devices mounted on light poles throughout the area, so positive detection can
be reported in real time. And since 4G networks can include inherent geo-location without
GPS, first responders will know where the vehicle is when it detects a CBN agent.

Cameras in Traffic Lights Some major cities have deployed cameras on traffic lights
and send those images back to a central command center. This is generally done using
fiber, which limits where the cameras can be hung, i.e., no fiber, no camera. 4G networks
allow cities to deploy cameras and backhaul them wirelessly. And instead of having to
backhaul every camera, cities can backhaul every third or fifth or tenth camera, using the
other cameras as router/repeaters. These cameras can also serve as fixed infrastructure

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devices to support the mobile sensor application described above.

First Responder Route Selection Using fiber to backhaul cameras means that the
intelligence collected flows one way: from the camera to the command center. Using a 4G
network, those images can also be sent from the command center back out to the streets.
Ambulances and fire trucks facing congestion can query various cameras to choose an
alternate route. Police, stuck in traffic on major thoroughfares, can look ahead and make a
decision as to whether it would be faster to stay on the main roads or exit to the side roads.

Traffic Control During Disasters If a hurricane hits the Gulf Coast of Florida and
cars start driving east, 4G networks can allow officials to access traffic control boxes to
change inland traffic lanes to green. Instead of having to send officers to every box on
roads being overwhelmed by civilians who are evacuating, it can all be done remotely, and
dynamically. In a September 11 type environment, lights could also be forced to red to
prevent civilians from driving into harm’s way.

Where am I? Where are My Colleagues? If every emergency response vehicle in a city

is equipped with a 4G transceiver, the command center then knows where all potential first
responders are during an emergency, as do the individual officers. While GPS would allow
management to know where the vehicles are, 4G networks allows them to see where the
individuals are even when they have had to leave their vehicles.

The 4G Nightclub in Your Pocket

My son was playing Pokemon red version on his GameBoy the other day. Bored
with that, apparently, and bored with the other color versions of the Pokemon spectrum, and
with no other kids within one meter to connect his GameBoy to via a cable, his journey with
Pikachu ended for that day. But what if my son could battle against Ash, Misty, and Brock
without a cable, whether they were down the street or an ocean away? 4G wireless could
make Pokemon not just a game played around the globe, but a truly global game.

Many professionals in the mobile wireless space argue that voice is the killer app
for now, but data is the killer app of the future. And because Voice Over Internet Protocol
(VoIP) is simply another kind of data, this prediction is likely true just by definition. But you
can get voice with the current generation technology and the device you already own. So
the issues become: What other applications will make companies deploy this 4G
technology? And what will make consumers buy new devices?

There are many fields that could greatly benefit from 4G, but entertainment is a
killer app when the term is broadened to include music, books/magazines, gambling, video,
and adult content.

4G can deliver games, music, books/magazines, video, as well as gambling and

adult content – arguably the two most profitable online services – into mobile users’ hands
all over the world, and allow them to interact in real-time with other users.

4G wireless is a disruptive technology.iv Vendors of wireless hardware fear 4G

because it means the end to the giant cell towers they are trying to sell. Incumbent carriers
fear 4G because it means their consumers will get a taste of the possible and demand the
feature set that 4G can deliver. Handset makers fear 4G because it will hasten the
migration from phones to voice-enabled PDAs. But the consumers, those who ultimately
will dictate how the term 4G is defined, will embrace this technology and force the industry
to deliver these services.

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 About the authors

Allen H. Kupetz is the director of sales and international business development for
MeshNetworks, Inc. (www.meshnetworks.com), and an adjunct professor for international
affairs at the Hamilton Holt School of Rollins College (www.rollins.edu/holt/). He served as
the telecommunications policy officer for the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 1992-96. Mr.
Kupetz is also the founder of www.4Gwireless.org and the author of more than a dozen
articles and international conference presentations on fourth generation (4G) wireless. He
has an MA in international relations from the University of Texas at Austin. Mr. Kupetz can
be reached at akupetz@meshnetworks.com.

K. Terrell Brown is the marketing manager for the Advanced Wireless Solutions Group of
Viasys Corporation (www.viasyscorp.com), a global systems integrator. Previously, he
served as emerging markets manager for MeshNetworks, Inc (www.meshnetworks.com)
and a wireless consultant with CNL Financial Group. He has an MBA with concentrations in
finance and e-commerce from the Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins
College. Mr. Brown can be reach at tbrown@viasyscorp.com

i
Batman and all related characters and elements are trademark and  DC Comics.
ii
The list of services and pricing information was obtained from
http://www.onstar.com/visitors/html/ao_plans.htm and retrieved on March 30, 2002.
iii
For detailed information on Intelligent Transportation Systems, please see “What is ITS?” at the ITS America
Web site (http://www.itsa.org/).
iv
The term disruptive technology is from Clayton Christensen’s 1997 book, The Innovator’s Dilemma.
“Disruptive technologies bring to a market a very different value proposition than had been available previously.
Generally, disruptive technologies under-perform established products in mainstream markets. But they have
other features that a few fringe (and generally new) consumers value.” (pg. xv).

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