Probability Tree Diagrams MS

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1. (a) 0.

8,
0.4, 0.6, 0.4 2
B1 for Julie correct
B1 for Pat correct
(b) 0.12 oe 2
0.2  0.6
M1 for 0.2  0.6
A1 cao
[4]

2. (a) 0.7, 0.7, 0.3, 0.7 2


B1 for Monday correct
B1 for Tuesday correct
(b) 0.51 oe 3
1  0.7  0.7
M1 for 0.7  0.7
M1 for 1  “0.49”
A1 for 0.51 oe
(M1 for 0. 3  0. 3 OR 0.7  0.3 OR 0.3  0.7
M1 for 0. 3  0. 3 + 0.7  0. 3 + 0. 3  0.7
A1 for 0.51 oe)
[5]

3. (a) 5 fractions 2
4 1 3 1 3
7 and 4 , 4 , 4 , 4
B1 for bag P correct
B1 for bag Q correct
3
(b) 28 oe 2
3 1
7 × 4
3 1
nd
M1 for 7 ×” 4 “(0 < 2 fraction < 1)
A1
[4]

Teddington School 1
4. 14 3
1 1
:
n = 21 × 4 or 4 6
1 2
6 × 84 or 21 × 3
1 3 1 2 1 1
     
M1 for 3 4  4  or 3 4 6
21
M1 for 21 × 4 = 84 or 3 × 2
A1 cao
[SC:B2 for answer of 63]
[3]

5. (a) 0.6
0.3 0.4
0.6 2
B1 for 0.3
B1 for 0.6, 0.4, 0.6

(b) (0.7 × 0.6) + (0.3 × 0.4)


0.54oe 3
M1 for either 0.7 × “0.6” or “0.3” × “0.4”
M1(dep) for (0.7 × “0.6”) + (“0.3” × “0.4”)
A1 cao
[5]

6. (a) 7/10 2/9, 7/9 3/9, 6/9 2


B2 for all 5 correct
(B1 for 2, 3, or 4 correct)
42
(b) 90 2
st nd
M1 for “1 girl” × “2 girl”
A1 cao.
[4]

Teddington School 2
7. 4/7
5/11, 6/11, 5/11 2
B2 for all four probabilities correct
(B1for 1 probability correct)
[2]

8. (a) 4/5
(7/10, 3/10) (1/10, 9/10) 2
B2 cao
(B1 for 2 correct from 4/5, (7/10, 3/10), (1/10, 9/10))

(b) (1/5 × 7/10) + (4/5 × 1/10)


11/50 3
M1 for 1/5 × “7/10” or “4/5” × “1/10” oe selected
M1 for (1/5 × 7/10) + (4/5 × 1/10) oe
A1 for 11/50 oe
[5]

Teddington School 3
 3 2  2 1  4 3
      
9. 9 8  9 8  9 8
6  2  12
= 72
20
72 4
2 1 3
or or
B1 for 8 8 8 seen as 2nd probability
3 2 2 1 4 3
   or    or   
M1 for  9 8   9 8   9 8 
3 2 2 1 4 3
      
M1 for  9 8   9 8   9 8 
20
A1 for 72 o.e.
Alternative scheme for replacement
3 2 4
or or
B0 for 9 9 9 seen as 2nd probability
3 3 2 2 4 4
   or    or   
M1 for  9 9   9 9   9 9 
3 3 2 2 4 4
      
M1 for  9 9   9 9   9 9 
29
A0 for 81
Special cases
29 20 29
or or
S.C award B2 for 81 81 72
2 1 3 3 2 4
and and or and and
SC award B1 for 9 9 9 8 8 8 seen as
second probability if B2 not scored
Watch for candidates who misread the question and work with
10ths and 9ths They can score M2
Any other total for the number of yoghurts must be identified
before ft
[4]

Teddington School 4
5 7 5 1  3 2 3 1  2 2 2 7
            
10.  10 10   10 10   10 10   10 10   10 10   10 10 
35  5  6  3  4  14
= 100
OR
 5 2   3 7   2 1 
          
1 –  10 10   10 10   10 10 
10  21  2 33
 1
=1– 100 100
67
100 4
M1 for a tree diagram with at most 2 errors
 5 7   5 1
     
or one of  10 10  or  10 10  etc
M1 for 5 out of 6 correct pairings of different colours
or 2 out of 3 correct pairings of same colours
or 8 out of 9 correct pairings of all colours
M1 (dep on M2) for adding 5 or 6 correct pairings of different
colours
or 1 – (2 or 3 correct pairings of same colours)
67
A1 for 100 oe
x
nd
SC All correctly done but 2 spinner all 9
Award M1 for a “correct tree”
M1 for adding 5 or 6 “correct pairings” of different colours or
1 – (2 or 3 “correct pairings” of same colours)
M0 A0 (answer = 67/90)
[4]

Teddington School 5
 4 3   3 2   2 1  12  6  2
      
11. 9 8 9 8 9 8 = 72
20
72 oe 4
3 2 1
or or nd
B1 for 8 8 8 seen as 2 probability
4 3 3 2 2 1
   or    or   
M1 for  9 8   9 8   9 8 
4 3 3 2 2 1
      
M1 for  9 8   9 8   9 8 
20
A1 for 72 oe
Alternative scheme for replacement
4 3 2
or or nd
B0 for 9 9 9 seen as 2 probability
4 4 3 3 2 2
   or    or   
M1 for  9 9   9 9   9 9 
4 4 3 3 2 2
      
M1 for  9 9   9 9   9 9 
29
A0 for 81
Special cases
29 20 29
or or
S.C. if M0 scored, award B2 for 81 81 72
3 2 1
or or
S.C. if M0 scored award B1 for 9 9 9
3 2 4
and and
or 8 8 8 as second probability if B2 not scored
[4]

Teddington School 6

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