Probability Models

Section 6.2
 Should We Chance It?

 http://bcs.whfreeman.com/tps3e/default.asp
?s=&n=&i=&v=&o=&ns=0&uid=0&rau=0
 The Big Idea
 Chance behavior is unpredictable in the
short run but has a regular and
predictable pattern in the long run.
 Random in statistics does not mean
haphazard. It is instead a description of a
kind of order that only emerges in the long
run.
Vocabulary
Probability Models
 Some Simple Sample Spaces
(Try saying that three times fast!)
 A coin toss: S = {H, T}
 A die roll: S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
 The outcomes of four coin tosses:
S = {TTTT, HTTT, THTT, TTHT, TTTH,
HHTT, HTHT, HTTH, THHT, THTH, TTHH,
HHHT, HHTH, HTHH, THHH, HHHH}
 The number of tails in 6 coin tosses: S = {0, 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
 Three Ways to Enumerate the
Sample Space
1. A Tree
Diagram
for a coin
toss
followed by
a die roll:
 2. Make an organized list of
the number of tails in four
coin tosses:
0 tails 1 tail 2 tails 3 tails 4 tails
HHHH THHH TTHH TTTH TTTT
HTHH THTH TTHT
HHTH THHT THTT
HHHT HTTH HTTT
HTHT
HHTT
 Work It Out!

 Use the Multiplication Principle

to find the number of outcome if
we flip a coin, roll a die, and then
draw a card from a standard deck:

2  6  52 = 624
 Keep It or Toss It?
 Be careful to note whether you are sampling
with or without replacement!
– How many outcomes are there if you draw two
cards from a standard deck with replacement?
52  52 = 2704

– How many outcomes are there if you draw two

cards from a standard deck without?
52  51 = 2652
Probability Rules!
 Some Notable Notation
 The event A union B is the set of all
outcome that are either in A or B.
A  B means A or B

 If two events, A and B, are disjoint, then

their intersection is empty.
AB=
 Some Venn Diagrams
 Disjoint events A and B:

 Event A and its complement:

 Disjoint (Mutually Exclusive)?
 Suppose you select a person at random from
your school. Which of these pairs of events
must be disjoint?
– The person has ridden a roller coaster, the
person has ridden a Ferris wheel?
– Is a senior, is a junior?
– Has brown hair, has brown eyes?
– Has shoulder-length hair, is a male?
Venn Diagram of A and B
Multiplication Rule for
Independent Events