Risk Scenarios for Mungiki

Probability Possible Impact / Consequences Risk Certainty

1. Support base from poor  Disillusioned youths High

urban slum-dwelling  Criminal “gangster” culture High
youths

2. Identifying with Islamic  Threat to national security Low

fundamentalism  Support for terrorism. Low
 Infiltrations & Arms dealings High

3. Sect cleansing rituals,  Promoting tribalism High

initiation rites, cultural  Ethnic cleansing Low
barbarism  Genocide Low

4. Infrastructure  Superiority to state protection rackets Low

maintenance through  Civil society dependency Low
matatu (bus) & housing

5. Political agendas and  Intimidate voters High

electioneer violence  Weaken democracy Medium
 Rise in insecurity High

6. Anti-Imperialist & anti-  Influence unemployed individuals High

western  Weaken support for western ideals Low
such as liberal democracy, free trade,
aid which in turn could effect
bilateral agreements and stall
development Low
 Identify with Islamic fundamentalists Low
 Threat to national security

7. Drugs & arms dealings  Threat to national security High

 Movement infiltration for militia High
groups & terrorist organisations

8. Kikuyu hegemony  Promoting tribalism High

 Minority exclusions High
 Unhealthy democracy High