trend line

100.0000%

80.0000%

60.0000%

40.0000%

trend line
Axis Title 20.0000%

0.0000%
-0.4000 -0.3000 -0.2000 -0.1000 0.0000 0.1000 0.2000 0.3000

-20.0000%

-40.0000%

-60.0000%

Axis Title
 closing
YEAR MONTH rates EXCESS RETURN(Y) Stock Variance KSE-100
2004 DEC 306 6218.4
2005 JAN 300 -1.9608% 0.0006 6747.39
2005 FEB 280 -6.6667% 0.0052 8260.06
2005 MAR 228 -18.5714% 0.0366 7770.33
2005 APR 235 3.0702% 0.0006 7104.65
2005 MAY 224 -4.6809% 0.0028 6857.67
2005 JUN 258.3 15.3125% 0.0217 7450.12
2005 JUL 238 -7.8591% 0.0071 7178.93
2005 AUG 234 -1.6807% 0.0005 7796.86
2005 SEP 245 4.7009% 0.0017 8225.66
2005 OCT 249 1.6327% 0.0001 8247.34
2005 NOV 311.5 25.1004% 0.0602 9025.93
2005 DEC 329 5.6180% 0.0025 9556.61
2006 JAN 310 -5.7751% 0.0040 10524.16
2006 FEB 286 -7.7419% 0.0069 11456.27
2006 MAR 294 2.7972% 0.0005 11485.9
2006 APR 349.5 18.8776% 0.0335 11342.17
2006 MAY 298.9 -14.4778% 0.0226 9800.69
2006 JUN 298 -0.3011% 0.0001 9989.41
2006 JUL 290 -2.6846% 0.0011 10497.63
2006 AUG 300.5 3.6207% 0.0009 10064.13
2006 SEP 300 -0.1664% 0.0001 10512.48
2006 OCT 330 10.0000% 0.0089 11327.71
2006 NOV 350 6.0606% 0.0030 10618.75
2006 DEC 370 5.7143% 0.0026 10040.5
2007 JAN 642.8 73.7297% 0.5352 11272.33
2007 FEB 654 1.7424% 0.0001 11179.97
2007 MAR 640 -2.1407% 0.0007 11271.59
2007 APR 565.25 -11.6797% 0.0150 12369.7
2007 MAY 575 1.7249% 0.0001 12961.26
2007 JUN 575 0.0000% 0.0000 13772.46
2007 JUL 570 -0.8696% 0.0002 13738.87
2007 AUG 551.5 -3.2456% 0.0015 12214.26
2007 SEP 584.05 5.9021% 0.0028 13351.79
2007 OCT 575.95 -1.3869% 0.0004 14319.42
2007 NOV 510 -11.4506% 0.0144 13998.52
2007 DEC 457 -10.3922% 0.0120 14075.83
2008 JAN 458 0.2188% 0.0000 14017.01
2008 FEB 437 -4.5852% 0.0027 14934.3
2008 MAR 360 -17.6201% 0.0331 15125.29
2008 APR 396 10.0000% 0.0089 15122.47
 2008 MAY 305 -22.9798% 0.0555 12130.51
2008 JUN 380 24.5902% 0.0577 12289.03
2008 JUL 388 2.1053% 0.0002 10583.58
2008 AUG 343.67 -11.4253% 0.0144 9208.26
2008 SEP 343.67 0.0000% 0.0000 9179.68
2008 OCT 343.67 0.0000% 0.0000 9182.88
2008 NOV 343.67 0.0000% 0.0000 9187.1
2008 DEC 343.67 0.0000% 0.0000 5865.01
2009 JAN 326.49 -4.9990% 0.0031 5377.42
2009 FEB 310.17 -4.9986% 0.0031 5727.46
2009 MAR 167.21 -46.0909% 0.2177 6860.22
2009 APR 193 15.4237% 0.0221 7202.1
2009 MAY 180.01 -6.7306% 0.0053 7276.61
2009 JUN 167.02 -7.2163% 0.0061 7162.18
2009 JUL 167.99 0.5808% 0.0000 7720.93
2009 AUG 170.9 1.7322% 0.0001 8675.67
2009 SEP 187.8 9.8888% 0.0087 9349.68
2009 OCT 209.34 11.4696% 0.0119 9159.18
2009 NOV 284.26 35.7887% 0.1240 9206.21
2009 DEC 266.76 -6.1563% 0.0045 9386.92
2010 JAN 260 -2.5341% 0.0010 9614.19
2010 FEB 226.1 -13.0385% 0.0185 9657.79

SUM 21674.65 35.2960% 1.4054 631827.43

AVERAGE 344.0421 0.5693% 0.0227 10029.007
S.DEVIATION 0.1506

EXESS (NEW MONTH - PREVIOUS MONTH)

RETURN PREVIOUS MONTH

EXPECTED SUM OF EXCESS RETURN

RETURN NUMBER OF VALUES

VARIANCE SUM(EXESS RETURN-EXPECTED RETURN)²

STANDARD DEVIATION (VARINCE)½

BETA (ß) N∑XY-(∑X)(∑Y) 0.2129848

N∑X²-(∑X)²
 EXCESS RETURN
100.0000%

80.0000%

60.0000%
40.0000%

20.0000%

0.0000%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 2 9 31 33 35 37 39 41
-20.0000%

-40.0000%

-60.0000%
EXCESS RETURN(X) Market variance X*Y X² Y²

0.0851 0.0054 -0.00166801 0.007237 0.0004

0.2242 0.0452 -0.01494573 0.050259 0.0044
-0.0593 0.0050 0.011010799 0.003515 0.0345
-0.0857 0.0094 -0.0026302 0.007339 0.0009
-0.0348 0.0021 0.001627211 0.001208 0.0022
0.0864 0.0056 0.013228824 0.007464 0.0234
-0.0364 0.0023 0.002860764 0.001325 0.0062
0.0861 0.0056 -0.00144665 0.007409 0.0003
0.0550 0.0019 0.002585305 0.003025 0.0022
0.0026 0.0001 4.30311E-05 6.947E-06 0.0003
0.0944 0.0069 0.02369603 0.008912 0.0630
0.0588 0.0022 0.003303093 0.003457 0.0032
0.1012 0.0081 -0.00584692 0.01025 0.0033
0.0886 0.0059 -0.00685692 0.007844 0.0060
0.0026 0.0001 7.23456E-05 6.689E-06 0.0008
-0.0125 0.0006 -0.00236226 0.000157 0.0356
-0.1359 0.0217 0.019676374 0.018471 0.0210
0.0193 0.0001 -5.798E-05 0.000371 0.0000
0.0509 0.0016 -0.0013658 0.002588 0.0007
-0.0413 0.0028 -0.00149517 0.001705 0.0013
0.0445 0.0011 -7.4125E-05 0.001985 0.0000
0.0775 0.0044 0.007754878 0.006014 0.0100
-0.0626 0.0055 -0.00379311 0.003917 0.0037
-0.0545 0.0044 -0.00311175 0.002965 0.0033
0.1227 0.0124 0.090456146 0.015052 0.5436
-0.0082 0.0004 -0.00014276 6.713E-05 0.0003
0.0082 0.0000 -0.00017543 6.716E-05 0.0005
0.0974 0.0074 -0.01137868 0.009491 0.0136
0.0478 0.0013 0.000824905 0.002287 0.0003
0.0626 0.0026 0 0.003917 0.0000
-0.0024 0.0002 2.1208E-05 5.948E-06 0.0001
-0.1110 0.0150 0.003601676 0.012314 0.0011
0.0931 0.0067 0.005496689 0.008673 0.0035
0.0725 0.0037 -0.00100509 0.005252 0.0002
-0.0224 0.0012 0.002566104 0.000502 0.0131
0.0055 0.0000 -0.00057393 3.05E-05 0.0108
-0.0042 0.0002 -9.144E-06 1.746E-05 0.0000
0.0654 0.0029 -0.00300058 0.004283 0.0021
0.0128 0.0000 -0.00225338 0.000164 0.0310
-0.0002 0.0001 -1.8644E-05 3.476E-08 0.0100
-0.1978 0.0438 0.045465216 0.039144 0.0528
0.0131 0.0000 0.003213412 0.000171 0.0605
-0.1388 0.0226 -0.00292165 0.019259 0.0004
-0.1299 0.0200 0.014846947 0.016887 0.0131
-0.0031 0.0002 0 9.633E-06 0.0000
0.0003 0.0001 0 1.215E-07 0.0000
0.0005 0.0001 0 2.112E-07 0.0000
-0.3616 0.1392 0 0.130757 0.0000
-0.0831 0.0090 0.004155924 0.006911 0.0025
0.0651 0.0029 -0.00325382 0.004237 0.0025
0.1978 0.0347 -0.09115712 0.039116 0.2124
0.0498 0.0015 0.007686431 0.002484 0.0238
0.0103 0.0000 -0.00069632 0.000107 0.0045
-0.0157 0.0007 0.00113481 0.000247 0.0052
0.0780 0.0044 0.000453081 0.006086 0.0000
0.1237 0.0126 0.002142028 0.015291 0.0003
0.0777 0.0044 0.007682595 0.006036 0.0098
-0.0204 0.0010 -0.00233694 0.000415 0.0132
0.0051 0.0000 0.001837655 2.637E-05 0.1281
0.0196 0.0001 -0.00120844 0.000385 0.0038
0.0242 0.0002 -0.00061354 0.000586 0.0006
0.0045 0.0000 -0.00059129 2.057E-05 0.0170

0.7133 0.4995 0.110452101 0.507732 1.4074

0.0115

0.0057

0.1506
 EXCESS RETURN(Y)

EXCESS RETURN(Y)

2 1 2 3 25 27 2 9 31 33 35 3 7 3 9 41 43 45 4 7 49 51 53 5 5 57 59 61 63