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A special report for Viettel

Corporation

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Julian Herbert
Principal Analyst
Broadband and Internet
julian.herbert@informa.com

Introduction

The union of the world of content delivered over the of the first operators to launch a hybrid over-the-top/digital
unmanaged internet and that of the walled-garden IPTV terrestrial TV box alongside a managed IPTV service, called
service has moved from the realm of mere prediction to ‘Cubovision’. The shape clearly started a trend, as French
being an all-pervasive PR message and in one or two pay TV broadcaster Canal+ has responded to decreasing
cases, commercial reality. market share by introducing Le Cube, which will enable it
to bring on-demand content to its customers. The concept
The TV ecosystem now includes games consoles. There behind both boxes – expanding the content of an STB
are 25 third-party pay or catch-up TV services that beyond linear TV – is sound, but both fall down in some
have launched, or will launch, on the three major games major ways. It remains to be seen whether these are merely
consoles. Sony’s more open approach to PlayStation interesting experiments or part of a strategy which has legs.
means it has been able to offer more services (20 out of
25 services launched so far) than Microsoft’s Xbox 360, OTT perhaps poses the biggest threat to that group of
but the proliferation and use of existing technologies and operators which are marketing high-speed broadband quite
platforms, including Microsoft’s Mediaroom and Silverlight aggressively, but which also offer PayTV. Cable operators
and Adobe’s Flash, will determine which providers launch face the conundrum that the faster the broadband speed,
on which platforms. For all the hoo-hah, games consoles the more potent the threat from OTT providers: who
are unlikely to usurp TV platforms as the medium of needs a managed TV service when broadband can offer
choice for broadcasters and content providers, but they all the bandwidth (and stability) one needs to watch TV or
represent an opportunity for operators to reach new download video over the open internet? Speed gives cable
audiences at low cost. operators the marketing edge against incumbents, but may
yet prove their undoing as PayTV providers.
Consoles aside, some operators are now openly
embracing OTT (over-the-top) strategies, by launching
innovative hybrid settop boxes (STBs), in order to
segment and expand audiences. STBs will require a
strong brand and unique services for customers to pay
for them. In November 2009, Telecom Italia became one Julian Herbert

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2
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
CONTENTS

Speed is cable’s biggest strength against


incumbents but its Achilles’ heel against OTT players 4
Andrew Ladbrook
Research Analyst

Games consoles start to define their roles


in the TV ecosystem 9
Giles Cottle
Senior Analyst

Stagnating TV operators look to hybrid boxes


to segment and expand audience 14
Andrew Ladbrook
Research Analyst

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3
Andrew Ladbrook
Research Analyst
Broadband and Internet
andrew.ladbrook@informa.com

Speed is cable’s biggest strength


against incumbents but its
Achilles’ heel against OTT players
25 March 2010

n Cable-industry revenues and ARPU are growing as Analysis


broadband-subscription numbers rise. Speed is working against the incumbents
n Speeds that are higher than incumbent rivals’ are With a few exceptions, such as in the UK and Spain, the
proving an effective marketing tool but will provide leading cable companies in most countries are growing faster
opportunities to OTT players. than the incumbents (see fig. 2). In Norway, Portugal,
n The proliferation of legacy settop boxes will restrict Germany and several other countries, cable’s growth is over
cable companies’ abilities to deliver new services. 20 percentage points higher than the incumbent’s.
n Cable operators’ content partners are embracing OTT
strategies as they seek to reach their viewers directly. The growth in the number of cable-broadband subscribers
n Owning the living room will not be enough for cable: It is due to three factors: the cable industry is becoming more
must seek to become important over all devices. serious about bundles as it faces up to competition from
IPTV services; consumer dissatisfaction with unreliable
Introduction DSL; and strong marketing built around an emphasis on
On the surface, the outlook for the cable industry is high speed and reliability. Subscribers are not choosing the
positive. Subscription numbers are rising, as is ARPU, highest speeds available, but they are choosing cable
as more and more customers subscribe to digital cable broadband. Liberty Media and Kabel Deutschland say their
services over TV and broadband. most popular broadband packages are 16-30Mbps.

Broadband take-up is being driven by DOCSIS 3.0, which With FTTx rollouts taking place slowly, cable is likely to
provides a big speed advantage over DSL providers, maintain its speed advantage in the short-to-medium term.
few of which have rolled out extensive next-generation Because of this, it is likely that cable companies will
access networks. continue to be able to sell their broadband services to their
pay TV customers and continue to raise ARPU. Even if the
In March 2010 Finnish cable player Welho announced that incumbents can catch up to today’s cable-broadband
it was launching a 200Mbps service, claiming the title of speeds, Welho has already demonstrated that even
the world’s fastest broadband. The cable industry is using greater speeds still can be squeezed out of DOCSIS 3.0
its advantage in the speed war (see fig. 1) to underpin its in some cases.
marketing efforts.
But speed will be good for OTT players
The cable industry claims that it owns the living room and The last mile – the part of the broadband network that runs
that it is an industry built on delivering premium content. into the customer’s home – is considered a major weakness
However, it finds itself being challenged on its core for OTT video. Although content providers can use
proposition – content – by several disparate groups. As content-delivery networks to guarantee quality in the core
TV manufacturers introduce connected TVs, they have network, they cannot do so closer to the home.
signed several deals that will enable their devices to
provide a variety of “over the top” (OTT) services – those With DOCSIS 3.0, cable has gone some way toward
that are delivered to the end-user via the Internet. Other overcoming both these problems with more-reliable
consumer-electronics manufacturers, including Apple, networks and faster speeds. Although this does not
Microsoft and Sony, have all introduced settop boxes guarantee quality, one of the major impediments to OTT
(STBs) in various guises, aiming squarely for control of the players – lack of bandwidth – has been removed, and that
living room. Also, some pure OTT players, such as Boxee, can only make their services more attractive.
are trying to migrate from the PC to the TV, by either
offering their own boxes or licensing their software to be The speeds that cable companies now offer also mean that
used in TVs or STBs. In this regard, with its unblinkered OTT can offer much better services. iTunes downloads and
focus on higher speeds, cable could be sowing the seeds video-streaming services will now be nearly instantaneous,
of its own destruction, because it gives OTT players the without lag and in full HD. These OTT players also have
perfect platform to deliver their services. well-known brands that might attract many cable
subscribers to them and be used as substitutes for cable’s
core content services.

4
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
Speed is cable’s biggest strength against incumbents
but its Achilles’ heel against OTT players

Country Service provider Service-provider type Advertised speed (Mbps)

Belgium Telenet Cable 25

Belgium Belgacom Incumbent 20

Denmark YouSee Cable 50

Denmark TDC Incumbent 20

Finland Welho Cable 200

Finland Sonera Incumbent 100

France France Telecom Cable 100

France Numericable Incumbent 100

Germany Kabel Deutschland Cable 100

Germany Deutsche Telecom Incumbent 50

Japan J-Com Cable 160

Japan NTT Incumbent 100

Netherlands UPC Cable 120

Netherlands KPN Incumbent 20

Norway Canal Digital Cable 70

Norway Telenor Incumbent 50

Portugal Zon Cable 1,000

Portugal PT Incumbent 100

South Korea SK Cable 100

South Korea KT Incumbent 100

Spain ONO Cable 50

Spain Telefonica Incumbent 25

Sweden Com Hem Cable 100

Sweden Telia Incumbent 24

UK Virgin Media Cable 50

UK BT Incumbent 20

US Comcast Cable 50

US AT&T Incumbent 18

Fig. 1: Selected countries, advertised speeds for leading cable and incumbent providers, 1Q10

Cable Incumbent

60

50
Year-on-year change (%)

40

30

20

10

-10
*

PT

le

om

om

et

om

SK

om

st

KT

or

d
ta
nd

TT

ho
Se
Zo

&

an
TD
ab

ta
en

en
gi

AT
ek

ac

ec
el
la

on

hl
be

u
Di

ic

l
J-

Te

Te
ch

Yo

c
l

lg

l
er

Te

Te

C
Ka

ts
al

Be
ts

um

eu
an

he

ce
eu

lD
C

sc

an
lD

ut

be
Fr
be

De

Ka
Ka

Fig. 2: Subscription growth of selected cable and incumbent providers, 4Q09 (*Q308 to Q309)

5
Cable’s content partners are experimenting with that a publicly funded body should have no interest in
directly distributing their own content funding such a service.
The rise of connected devices means that cable’s
traditional partners, TV broadcasters and content In the key markets of France, Germany, Spain and Italy,
producers, are seeking direct access to their viewers. similar developments are occurring with HbbTV.
They have taken two main paths. The first is to form
partnerships with CE manufacturers that are courting In the US, online aggregator Hulu continues to attract
content providers for their connected TVs (see fig. 3). large audiences. It has yet to lure anyone other than the
technology savvy, but in some circles it is being spoken of
The second is to create new platforms that will enable TV as a cable replacement. Furthermore, with cable
to be delivered over IP. In the UK, a consortium that companies and TV broadcasters squabbling over
includes several TV broadcasters plans on launching a retransmission fees – Disney recently removed its
new platform, Canvas, that will enable OTT delivery of TV channels from Cablevision after failing to come to an
content. It will be an open platform, which means that any agreement about future retransmission prices – online
content provider can deliver its service using Canvas. Until delivery might be an attractive option.
early 2010, Virgin Media had remained quiet about
Canvas, allowing pay TV rival Sky to lead the complaints. Not all TV broadcasters are attempting this shift. Some still
However, it has subsequently broken its silence, saying see advantages in remaining with companies that have

Date Participants Announcement type Deal

6-Jan 09 LG Electronics (South Korea), Netflix, Yahoo, Partnership LG partners with Netflix, Yahoo and YouTube to offer video streaming on two
YouTube (all US) HDTV sets using its Netcast Entertainment Access service.

6-Jan 09 Samsung (South Korea), Yahoo (US) Deal Samsung teams up with Yahoo to put the latter's Widget Engine on selected
HDTV sets starting in spring 2009.

6-Jan 09 Toshiba (Japan), Yahoo, Intel, Microsoft (all Deal Toshiba launches devices such as LCD TVs and LCD TV/DVD combos that
US) support Yahoo/Intel's Widget Channel apps and Microsoft's Windows Media
Center.

24-Feb 09 Panasonic (Japan), Eurosport (France) Partnership CE manufacturer Panasonic partners with Eurosport. Content from the
European sports TV broadcaster will be available on Panasonic's connected
TVs

24-Feb 09 ARD Television (Germany), Panasonic (Japan) Partnership German TV broadcaster ARD Television makes some of its content available on
Panasonic's Viera Cast-enabled TVs

22-Jun 09 Boxee, MLB (both US) Deal Boxee, a provider of home-media software, signs a deal to bring videos from
Major League Baseball's MLB.tv site to the platform.

13-Jul 09 Blockbuster (US), Samsung (Korea) Partnership The companies announced that Samsung Internet-enabled TVs will be able to
stream Blockbuster movies.

3-Sep 09 Panasonic (Japan), ZDF (Germany), Nova Partnership TV broadcasters ZDF and Nova make TV shows available to be streamed over
(Czech Republic) Panasonic's Viera Cast-enabled TVs.

14-Oct 09 Samsung (South Korea) Launch The Amazon video-on-demand service is available on new Samsung connected
TVs.

21-Oct 09 BSkyB (UK) Launch BSkyB makes its VOD service, Sky Player, available on Windows 7 PCs.

16-Nov 09 Sony (Japan), Netflix (US) Deal Netflix announces that its Watch Instantly online-video service is available via
several Sony devices, including Bravia Internet Video-capable HDTVs and the
Sony Network Blu-ray Disc Player.

16-Nov 09 BBC (UK), Nintendo (Japan) Launch The BBC and Nintendo announce a new version of the BBC's iPlayer for
Nintendo's Wii console.

19-Nov 09 Sony (Japan), NOS (Netherlands) Partnership Dutch public broadcaster NOS begins offering content to Dutch PlayStation
owners via the PlayStation Network.

10-Dec 09 TF1 (France), Samsung (South Korea) Partnership French TV broadcaster TF1 teams up with Samsung to provide its online-video
services and selected widgets and applications via the South Korean
consumer-electronics giant's Internet-connected TV sets.

6-Jan 10 Yahoo, Brightcove (both US) Deal Online-video platform Brightcove has teamed up with Yahoo to give its
customers access to Yahoo's connected-TV platform.

6-Jan 10 Divx (US), LG (Korea) Deal Divx, a digital-film distributor, signs a deal with consumer-electronics company
LG to provide its over-the-top video service to LG's connected TVs and Blu-ray
players.

6-Jan 10 Vizio, CBS, Showtime, Vudu (all US) Partnership TV manufacturer Vizio announces that it has added several new content
partners, including TV broadcasters CBS and Showtime.

6-Jan 10 Panasonic (Japan), Fox Sports, Netflix (both Partnership Panasonic adds two new content partners, Netflix and Fox Sports, to its Viera
US) Cast platform. Users will be able to stream films from Netflix and get sports
statistics and news from Fox Sports.

8-Mar 10 Sony Computer Entertainment America, Sony Deal Sony Computer Entertainment has signed deals with all six major movie studios
Pictures, 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney to distribute their HD-quality movies on its PlayStation Network. It is the first
Pictures, Paramount Pictures, Universal, service in which all six studios will have HD-quality films available.
Warner Bros. (All US)

Fig. 3: Selected deals and partnership between content providers and CE manufacturers, Jan-09 to Mar-10

6
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
Speed is cable’s biggest strength against incumbents
but its Achilles’ heel against OTT players

established billing relationships with their viewers. HBO said they can be accessed, making them less than ideal.
it intends to remain on cable platforms for the near future, Subscribers should not be chased into the arms of OTT
seeing little profit in operating a stand-alone OTT service. In players who give their users access no matter their
Eastern Europe it sees its partnership with cable companies location or device.
as a means of tackling piracy and strengthening its service.
HBO plans to give its Eastern European customers on- If content delivery is going to stop cable from turning into
demand access to its shows the day after they have been a dumb pipe, cable operators should make sure their
shown in the US. Offering this service alleviates one of the subscribers can get to their content. This value-added
major reasons for piracy: viewers’ desire to keep up to date service only enhances cable’s greatest strength and takes
with their favorite shows. Another reason for HBO to remain into account modern realities.
on cable is that it sees little value in the a la carte model and
remains strongly tied to subscriptions. Focus new services on the right audience
Just as not every subscriber is going to care about getting
Cable networks will require major upgrades to digital cable or HD, not every subscriber wants to access
provide an adequate response to OTT OTT content. Cable’s focus on the living room means that
Cable companies are not all at the same place when it it is losing the generation that does not spend time there
comes to their rollout of digital cable. Comcast expects but prefers its own room or device.
that by end-2010 all of its customers will be on digital
cable. Liberty Media is aggressively deploying digital cable These tech-savvy users have already adopted many OTT
in all the countries it operates in, but it does not expect to services, and their relationship with cable companies as a
have the vast majority of its subscribers on digital cable content provider is weak. It is unlikely that this group will be
until late-2011. interested in the walled-garden services offered by cable
companies via advanced settop boxes, because they will not
There is also a vast a range of settop boxes in the homes want to give up services they have become familiar with.
of cable subscribers, many of which cannot deliver the
new services being introduced by cable companies. Any new services that cable companies introduce as a
means of tackling the OTT players should be two-
Unless the settop boxes and cable systems are upgraded, pronged, to give older generations new features as a
cable companies will have no chance to compete with OTT churn-reduction strategy and to build a relationship with
rivals of any stripe. Even with the upgrades, cable providers the younger generation.
face a dilemma in offering new interactive services. Most
cable operators deliver video via DVB-C and data via If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em
DOCSIS 3.0, which is a cost-effective way of delivering both Having already aggregated premium content, and with
types of traffic. To offer many new interactive services, cable good relations with content producers, cable players are
operators will need to deliver everything over DOCSIS 3.0, already in a good position to offer OTT services. Such
which will substantially increase delivery costs. services might be a good way to provide their services
universally and to younger demographics.
Informa viewpoint
Speeding toward a dumb pipe Going OTT has three other advantages. First, it means that
In providing ever greater speeds to grab headlines and the cable player is now competing directly with OTT players,
win broadband customers, cable is moving even quicker which should enable them to gain some market share and
than its incumbent rivals toward being a dumb pipe. crowd out any new competitors that might have arisen
Managed services lose their advantages when so much without their presence. Second, to deliver video, OTT could
high-quality, reliable bandwidth is available. be a virtuous cycle; by delivering high-quality premium
content, demand for faster broadband should rise, which
DSL operators, with their slower and less reliable lines, will have a positive impact on ARPU.
have not yet reached this point; their managed services
still hold a tangible difference in quality over OTT. And by embracing OTT fully, cable companies will also be
able to reach customers who are outside of their footprints,
Cable must own devices, not the living room which are typically smaller than incumbents’ footprints.
Cable’s boast about owning the living room is
anachronistic thinking, because the TV does not have the Belgian cable company Telenet, which offers its complete
place that it used to. Users now have a plethora of service as an OTT service for the same price as its cable
devices, such as smartphones and laptops, that not only TV service, has had little success with this approach. User
take attention away from the TV but offer access to numbers remain low and annual revenues remain below
whatever they want, wherever they want. A focus only on 11 million (US$1.33 million). But it stands by its decision,
owning the TV will push these users to OTT services. saying it is learning important lessons and is positioning
itself for the future.
Some leading cable companies are already embracing this
view. YouSee in Denmark and Comcast in the US are doing This analysis has been taken from the Intelligence Centre,
so by providing access to their TV content on the PC. for more information about the service please visit:
These services are often limited as to the location where www.intelligencecentre.net/broadband-internet/

7
Market data you
can trust
Europe, fixed-broadband and mobile-broadband subscriptions and net additions,
4Q07-4Q09
200

150
Million

100

50

0
4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
● Fixed-broadband subscriptions ● Mobile-broadband subscriptions
● Fixed-broadband net additions ● Mobile-broadband net additions
Note: Subscription figures refer to quarter-end Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

“Increasingly fixed operators are keen to tap into the mobile


broadband boom in some way. Mobile broadband subscriptions
in Europe rose by 91.4% to 61.9 million in the year to end-4Q09,
against a 12.1% rise for fixed-broadband subscriptions. Incumbents,
for the most part keen to sweat their legacy copper networks for
as long as possible, are less likely to offer fixed/mobile broadband
bundles than their alternative operator rivals.
Meanwhile, the number of alternative operators offering mobile
services is set to increase as there is a pool of alternative operators
as yet without a mobile offer. These companies, which include
providers in the cable sector and some utility-backed fiber-to-
the-home/building (FTTH/B) operators, see mobile broadband,
World Broadband Information Service (WBIS) is the
bundled or not, as a key part of their future strategy.” industry’s leading source of broadband, multichannel TV
and fixed-line market data.
Julian Herbert, Principal Analyst & WBIS Product Manager As well as access to a comprehensive, reliable and detailed
global database of historic market data, KPIs and forecasts,
clients also receive unlimited access to a team of dedicated
analysts. The data supplied by WBIS, as well as the online
tools and analyst support help you make those important
strategic and tactical decisions.

www.wbisdata.com
Giles Cottle
Senior Analyst
Broadband and Internet
giles.cottle@informa.com

Games consoles start to define


their roles in the TV ecosystem
25 February 2010

n Informa Telecoms & Media counts 25 third-party pay or Where the picture gets really interesting is in the provision
catch-up TV services that have launched, or will launch, of third-party services. Ultimately, the extent to which
on the three major games consoles. consoles work with third parties will determine just
n Sony’s more open approach to PlayStation means it how ingrained they become in the connected home.
has been able to offer more services than Microsoft’s The headline-grabbing deals have included Facebook
Xbox 360. and Twitter, which are available on Xbox Live in several
n The proliferation and use of existing technologies and countries, and Netflix, whose Watch Instantly video-
platforms, including Microsoft’s Mediaroom and streaming service is available via all three major consoles.
Silverlight and Adobe’s Flash, will determine which
providers launch on which platforms. But outside the US, the big move has been the inclusion
n Consoles are unlikely to usurp TV platforms as the main of major third-party TV services by the main consoles,
method by which services can be accessed. including catch-up TV services provided by broadcasters
and pay-TV services usually delivered via satellite (DTH) or
Introduction IPTV (see fig. 2).
The idea of the games consoles as a connected device
that allows for far more than game-playing is not a new Analysis
idea. After all, it was back in 2002 when Informa Telecoms Motivations for offering services via a console
& Media reported on news of a corporate restructuring at vary greatly
Sony that resulted in the creation of a Broadband Strategy There is only ever one ultimate reason for a broadcaster or
Group within the company. The group was charged with operator to offer services via new platforms: to go where
pushing the evolution of Sony’s PS2 console as a its audience is, so it can reach as many eyeballs as
broadband-based entertainment-delivery medium. possible. But beyond this, there are some subtleties and
nuances that can hasten an operator’s decision to offer
Several years and one generation of consoles later, and these services:
it’s becoming clear that games consoles will be, if they
aren’t already, one of the key players in the connected On-demand on the cheap: Sky and Canal in France
home. In no way is this more obvious than in the types of have persevered with the Xbox 360 because the
services available via the devices (see fig. 1). Microsoft, limitations of their pay TV platforms – satellite – mean it
Sony and Nintendo have been gradually ramping up is difficult to offer a true on-demand service. Instantly
the features of their Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and Wii being able to offer on-demand content to Microsoft’s
consoles, including providing their own VOD libraries. estimated 2.5 million Xbox Live homes in the UK will be
extremely appealing.

Console Web service Social Video-on-demand

Nintendo Wii Offers photo sharing, shopping, news and In-house services including a message board Nintendo offers Wii no Maa, a social VOD
weather forecasts and a Web browser. Other and the Everybody Votes channel are service that offers cartoons and other
features, including a food-delivery service, are available; Nintendo has yet to strike any deals family-friendly shows from major content
included in Japan. with third-party social networks or media providers, in Japan.
providers, however.

Sony PlayStation 3 PS3 users can access Home, the console’s Home is Sony’s PS3-based online community. Sony sells VOD content via the PlayStation
virtual world and community, the PlayStation Users can create avatars, which live within store in the US, the UK, France, Germany,
store and other services. The service also Home and can interact with the avatars of Spain and Japan. VidZone, a service that
includes a Web browser. other users. Users can also access several allows users to watch music videos free, is
social-media sites via the PS3’s Web browser. available across Europe and Australasia.

Xbox 360 Xbox Live users can play online against each Twitter and Facebook are available in the Zune, Microsoft’s VOD service, was made
other and download full games and other majority of countries in which Xbox Live has available across Europe and Australia, having
additional content. Unlike the PS3 and Wii, launched. Music-discovery service Last.fm is previously been available only in the US.
Xbox Live does not include or support a Web available in the UK and US and will soon
browser. launch in Germany. Pioneering interactive live
game show 1 vs 100 is available in the UK
and US.

Fig. 1: Non-game services offered by the big three games consoles, Feb-10

9
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
Games consoles start to define their
roles in the TV ecosystem

Country Service Service Platform Creating a splash: Well-funded communications


provider providers that are new to the TV market can use consoles to
Australia ABC iView PS3 boost their TV efforts. KT of South Korea was the first
Bulgaria AXN AXN Player PS3 operator to launch a service via a games console, but it was
Czech Republic Animax Animax Player PS3
something of a TV laggard when it did so. Legislation
prohibited the operator from launching linear services, and its
Czech Republic AXN AXN Player PS3
on-demand service came after that of rival SK Broadband,
France Canal Canal+ Xbox 360 then branded Hanaro Telecom. Launching over the PS3 was
Germany ZDF ZDF Mediathek PS3 a natural step, given that persuading consumers to install
Hong Kong PCCW Now TV PS3 and pay for another settop box simply to access on-demand
Hungary Animax AXN Player PS3 viewing was also going to be a hard sell. Vodafone Portugal
also launched its Casa TV service via Xbox Live only a few
Hungary AXN Animax Player PS3
months after it launched the service.
Ireland RTE RTE Player PS3

Netherlands NOS NOS Journaal PS3 Sony’s vertically integrated approach: Some
New Zealand TVNZ TVNZ ondemand PS3 eyebrows were initially raised when Sony channels AXN
Poland AXN AXN Player PS3 and Animax were included as dedicated catch-up
Portugal Vodafone Casa TV Xbox 360
services on the PlayStation Network. Informa estimates
that, by the end of 2009, about 2 million PS3 consoles
Romania AXN AXN Player PS3
were sold in Europe outside the Big Five countries. The
Romania Animax Animax Player PS3
potential audience for viewing Animax and AXN can
Slovakia Animax Animax Player PS3 therefore be assumed to be extremely small. These
Slovakia AXN AXN Player PS3 launches most likely represent an opportunity for Sony to
South Korea KT Qook TV PS3 experiment with offering catch-up TV services in smaller
Spain Antenna 3 Atenna3videos PS3
markets. Signing up third-party broadcasters in these
markets will be difficult, because the costs of offering the
Spain La Sexta Misexta.tv PS3
service will be high compared with their potential benefits.
Spain RTVE RTVE a la carta PS3

UK BBC iPlayer Wii, PS3 Consoles attract new viewers, but there is some
UK BSkyB Sky Player Xbox 360 cannibalization from existing sources
US AT&T U-Verse Xbox 360 Viewing catch-up services via games consoles is
popular. Months after launch, the PS3 now accounts
Fig. 2: Global, pay-TV and catch-up services offered via games consoles,
Jan-10 for a significant proportion of iPlayer program requests
(see fig. 3). And in Australia, ABC achieved 89,000 views
a week only days after the iView service officially launched
Multiroom viewing or STB replacement: PCCW says via the PS3, having achieved only 83 views when the
that one of the main reasons it is offering Now TV via the service was available via the console but not promoted
PS3 is that it will enable people to watch its service on a (see fig. 4).
second set. This will appeal to customers, because such a
service is usually something that operators charge for. It is
particularly apt in Hong Kong, because many users live in
small apartments and space is at a premium, meaning any
device providing multiple services usually has an advantage.

PC 100
89,000
Virgin Media
Mac 80
Visits (thousands)

PS3
Wii 60
iPhone
Other mobile 40
26,000
20

83
0
Note: Problems with collection of iPhone data means that the Week 46 Week 47 Week 48
iPhone’s share is in reality higher than as presented (Nov 9–15) (Nov 16–22) (Nov 23–29)

Fig. 3: iPlayer, program requests by platform, Dec-09 Fig. 4: Australia, iView visits via PS3, Nov-09

10
Silverlight’s big competitor, Adobe Flash, is not supported
PC + MAC PS3
on Xbox Live but is supported on the Sony PS3, which in
70 turn does not support Silverlight. This means that
60
broadcasters using Flash for online-video services can
more easily integrate their services into the PlayStation
No. of requests (mil)

50 Network. This is made even easier by the fact that, unlike


the Xbox, the PS3 has a browser, via which several
40
services that are not officially supported are actually
30 watchable. Although the BBC described its unofficial
version of iPlayer as “clunky,” Informa Telecoms & Media
20 has used several other services via the PSN where the
quality could at least be described as reasonable.
10

0 The respective strengths and use-cases for Flash and


Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Silverlight also help explain the reason pay services are
Fig. 5: BBC iPlayer, selected program requests by platform, Jul-Dec 09 on Xbox Live and free services are on the PS3. The
vast majority of free catch-up TV services use Flash
One reason games consoles appeal to broadcasters is (see fig. 6). It remains a strong video platform and has
that they can bring a “lost generation” of viewers back to much higher penetration than Silverlight does, being
the TV. Broadcasters reason that if they bring their installed on about 98% of all PCs, compared with
services to the console, they will be able to win back Silverlight’s penetration of around 50%.
viewers who have abandoned the TV for gaming. But that
is a pretty major assumption to make. Most gamers are Service Country Free or pay Technology
technology-savvy people and are arguably those who RTL Now Germany Free Flash
would still watch via the PC. It is likely that many of these
Rai TV Italy Free Silverlight
“lost” viewers have abandoned TV because it simply does
TVE Spain Free Flash
not interest them as a medium, rather than because they
cannot access it in the way they want too. SVT Play Sweden Free Flash

Viasat on Sweden Free Flash


It is also clear that at least some viewers of catch-up TV Demand

via the console are churning from other platforms. An 4oD UK Free Flash
analysis of iPlayer data provided by the BBC shows that BBC iPlayer UK Free Flash
the number of iPlayer requests via PCs and Macs Demand Five UK Free Flash
dropped in the month the PS3 launched (see fig. 5).
M6 Reply UK Free Flash

TV2 Denmark Pay Silverlight


Technology restraints are underpinning which
services launch on which platforms Canal Foot+ France Pay Silverlight

Much has been made of the fact that Microsoft has Mediaset Italy Pay Silverlight
launched only paid-for third-party video services over Xbox Sky Player UK Pay Silverlight
Live, while Sony has embraced free catch-up TV for the Fig. 6: Use of Microsoft Silverlight and Adobe Flash by selected online-
PS3. At first glance, these strategies mirror both companies’ video services, Feb-10
online strategies for their consoles. The Sony PlayStation
Network is free for all PlayStation users; Xbox 360 users But Silverlight has a key advantage over Flash in offering
must pay US$50 a year for Xbox Live Gold membership to paid-for content: Microsoft’s strong heritage in offering
access the majority of the service’s features. But the split is DRM. Silverlight’s DRM is considered extremely robust,
not one simply between free and pay: For a start, Sony whereas Adobe only began adding DRM to Flash in 2008.
offers at least two pay services – Qook TV in South Korea
and Now TV in PCCW – via the PS3. Silverlight is also widely considered a stronger live-
streaming platform; several broadcasters used Silverlight
The main issues underpinning which platform they chose to show live streaming of the Olympic Games, to great
are technical, not strategic. Microsoft has two key acclaim. NOS of the Netherlands uses Flash for its VOD
advantages in the online-video and IPTV ecosystems: service that is being made available via the PS3. But it
Mediaroom, its middleware technology for managed IPTV uses Silverlight for live streaming because, it says, it is
providers, and Silverlight, its online-video platform, which much cheaper.
is used by many service providers offering streaming
video over the Internet. The two IPTV providers it is
offering services for – AT&T and Vodafone Portugal – are
Mediaroom customers. Microsoft will not be able to
provide IPTV services via the Xbox for non-Mediaroom
customers. Likewise, Sky’s Sky Player and Canal’s Foot+
both use Silverlight, making integration with Xbox Live
much more straightforward.

11
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
Games consoles start to define their
roles in the TV ecosystem

Less settop-box subsidization means lower With the Wii, the BBC had to abandon HTML completely,
capex and higher ARPU for operators because the console was not powerful enough to provide
Although Microsoft Mediaroom customers offering a good user experience. Instead, the BBC had to develop
services over the Xbox 360 will not be able to let their a new application using FlashLite and integrate it with the
subscribers use the device as a primary settop box, Qook Wii’s H.264 video player. The maximum level the Wii could
TV and Now TV subscribers can use the PS3 as their deliver was 700Kbps – less than the speed at which
primary settop box. And of course the whole reason for regular-definition iPlayer content was delivered – so a lot
satellite providers such as Sky and Canalsat to launch via of work also had to be done on encoding the video.
the Xbox 360 is to offer services without requiring users to
have a conventional settop box. Expect Microsoft to start offering some free video
services on Xbox Live
Offering content without needing to provide a box could It will take a fairly large shift in market dynamics for
save operators a significant amount, since the cost of numerous free services to appear on Xbox Live. It would
providing settop boxes is a major drain on opex for TV be inconceivable for Microsoft to support Flash on Xbox
providers. Sky also charges users to access its service via Live, and it is equally inconceivable for service providers
Xbox, meaning it can still charge for multiroom services across Europe to offer services in both Flash and
without having to provide the device. For satellite Silverlight or to switch en masse to Silverlight, simply to
operators, however, this saving is not likely to outweigh reach console audiences.
the cost of delivering its linear programming via
broadband instead of broadcast, which is a far cheaper But Informa believes that some free services will launch.
distribution mechanism. The stumbling block for iPlayer’s appearing on Xbox 360
is not that it cannot be charged for but that the service
Wider footprint or better quality of service? cannot be used to upsell a product – in this case,
Whereas Sky Player is available to any customers of any Microsoft’s Xbox Live. Commercial broadcasters will not
broadband operator, the services from PCCW and AT&T have this concern. And some free Silverlight-powered
will be available only to each operator’s respective services, such as Italian broadcaster Rai’s catch-up
broadband customers. The former approach enables the service, could be offered via Xbox Live.
operator to extend its footprint far beyond its customer
base. But it also presents problems of delivery, and it is Consoles will play second fiddle to TV platforms in
much more difficult to deliver video content “over the top” offering services
than via a managed network. Offering HD to the TV set, Broadcasters, especially smaller ones without the
for example, is difficult over an unmanaged broadband resources to develop for multiple platforms, will turn to TV
network. And guaranteeing good quality of service is platforms first for one of three reasons. First, the audience
difficult when both the network and the settop box are in for catch-up TV via a pay TV platform can reasonably be
the hands of third parties. assumed to be 100%, whereas many games-console
users will not have plugged their consoles in – only 59% of
The Informa view PS3 homes are connected to the Net – or might simply
Service providers will choose the path of least not be interested.
technical resistance
Although service providers want to reach as many users The pay TV audience is also bigger than the console
as possible, some will choose technical simplicity over audience. In no country in Europe can the most popular
eyeballs when it comes to deciding which console they games console claim to have a larger user base than the
want to offer a service via. most popular games pay TV platform.

The fates of Adobe’s Flash and Microsoft’s Silverlight and Finally, it is technically simpler and cheaper to deliver
Mediaroom will therefore decide which services will launch services via IPTV than via a console. To deliver services via
where and which platforms become dominant in offering Virgin Media, broadcasters simply need to upload their
paid-for services. The next IPTV service offered over Xbox content into the broadcaster’s system, as opposed to
Live will be another Mediaroom customer, with German creating a new application or coding. It is simply another
incumbent Deutsche Telekom a likely target. Sony, TV program delivered on-demand. One indication of this
meanwhile, has a number of Flash-powered catch-up TV is that although cash-strapped ITV has gone on record
services it can still woo. as saying it is cost-prohibitive to develop for lots of
platforms, it does appear on cable operator Virgin Media’s
The Nintendo Wii is likely to remain more peripheral, VOD service.
simply because of the efforts broadcasters must make
to get their services on the platform. This analysis has been taken from the Intelligence Centre,
for more information about the service please visit:
Offering services via the PS3 is relatively cheap for www.intelligencecentre.net/broadband-internet/
catch-up TV providers. The BBC, for example, rebuilt its
application to optimize it, but it was based on the same
underlying technologies – Flash and HTML – as the
Web version.

12
Independent

Connected
Interoperability
Mergers Video
pricing apps
Accessible
media

acquisitions
FTTx wireless

Content
Digital

Voice
IPTV
Dedicated

Bandwidth
Demand
Wholesale
Fixed/mobile

Valuable
management

Complete
Cable
Device

messaging
xDSL Mobile
broadband
convergence Finance
Retail

Regulation
Next-generation

Broadband & Internet

Whether you are looking to grow, diversify, acquire or defend


your market, a subscription to the Intelligence Centre will
provide you with the analysis, insight, market data and forecasts
to underpin major decisions and reduce risk.
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and mobile, the Intelligence Centre provides comprehensive
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Andrew Ladbrook
Research Analyst
Broadband and Internet
andrew.ladbrook@informa.com

Stagnating TV operators look


to hybrid boxes to segment
and expand audience
19 February 2010

n In November 2009, Telecom Italia became one of the Canal, a French pay TV broadcaster, also introduced a
first operators to launch a hybrid over-the-top/digital hybrid box in 2009. Unlike Telecom Italia’s Cubovision, its
terrestrial TV box alongside a managed IPTV service. Le Cube builds more directly on its previously established
n French pay TV broadcaster Canal has responded to services. It too requires users to pay a large fee for an STB,
decreasing market share by introducing Le Cube, a departure from the norm, since STBs are typically heavily
which will enable it to bring on-demand content to subsidized. Le Cube acts as both a satellite-TV receiver and
its customers. a VOD box, offering free catch-up services and paid-for
n Internet-enabled STBs are not direct competition for content. It also enables users to watch via a second TV set
IPTV but can be part of a wider strategy. connected to Le Cube by an Ethernet cable. To make Le
n STBs will require a strong brand and unique services for Cube more attractive, Canal also offers access to its most
customers to pay for them. popular shows before they are broadcast, a service regular
Canal subscribers must pay extra for.
Introduction
Hybrid settop boxes (STBs) have been on the market for Both Telecom Italia and Canal are not subsidizing the cost
several years. Traditionally, they have been used by of their STBs as part of a subscription package. Cubovision
operators that want to offer video-on-demand (VOD) and Le Cube are walled gardens, restricting over-the-top
services and lack the resources to absorb the cost of access to preapproved services.
investing in a full-fledged IPTV service. One prominent
example is UK incumbent BT’s BT Vision service. Analysis
IPTV is failing in Italy
However, in November 2009, Telecom Italia, which Incumbent Telecom Italia is seeing its broadband market
already had an IPTV service, launched its own hybrid share fall, but it remains the dominant operator, controlling
product, Cubovision. The STB offers PVR, linear digital just over 60% of the market. Even so, it has failed to
terrestrial TV (DTT) and crucially, access to some over-the- successfully push its IPTV service to its subscribers,
top (OTT) services. It also offers users USB connectivity adding just under 200,000 customers between end-3Q08
and an SD-card reader, which will allow digital media to and end-3Q09. Customers using the IPTV service
be transferred easily from a computer to the Cubovision accounted for only 6% of total subscriptions at end-3Q09
STB (see fig. 1). Telecom Italia appears to be the first (see figs. 2 and 3).
major operator to offer an IPTV service and a hybrid
box separately.
Fig. 1: Cubovision
Fig. 1: Cubovision
and Le Cubeand
features,
Le CubeFeb-10
features, Feb-10

Cubovision Cubovision
Cubovision Le Cube Le Cube Le Cube
Provider
ProviderProvider Telecom ItaliaTelecom
Telecom Italia
Italia Canal+ Canal+
Canal+
Price (€) Price (€) 199 199 Deposit: 75; subscription:
Deposit:6/month
75; subscription: 6/month
Price
HDD (GB) HDD (GB)
500 1199500 320 320 Deposit: 175; subscription: €6/month
Inputs HDD (GB)Inputs 1 Ethernet, 1 DTT
500 1reciever
Ethernet, 1 DTT reciever1 Satellite reciever,1 1Satellite
ethernetreciever,
port, USB
320 1 ethernet
port port, USB port
Additional ports Additional2 ports
USB ports, SD card
2 USB
reader,
ports,
Wi-Fi
SD card
b/g/nreader,
2 USB
Wi-Fi
ports
b/g/n 2 USB ports
Outputs Inputs One HDMI,
Ethernet,
Outputs HDMI, Video composite onecomposite
Video TV reciever HDMI, 2nd TV decoder Onedecoder
HDMI, 2nd TV Satellite receiver, one Ethernet port, USB port
Catch upAdditional
TV Catch
portsupNone
TV Two None Canal+
USB ports, SD card reader, play, M6 replay
Wi-Fi b/g/n Canal+ play,2M6
USBreplay
ports
Other free video services
Other free
La7.tv,
videoYouTube,
services various
La7.tv, Web
YouTube,
TV services
various Web
EarlyTV
premieres,
services Extended
Early premieres,
catch upExtended
service catch up service
Outputs HDMI, video composite HDMI, second TV decoder
Paid VoD Paid VoDEpisodes of Lost, selected
Episodesmovies
of Lost, selectedSelected
movies movies Selected movies
Catch-up TV None Canal+ Play, M6 Replay
Source: Companies Source:
Other free Companies
video services La7.tv, YouTube, various Web TV services Early premieres, extended catch-up service

Paid VOD Episodes of Lost, selected movies Selected movies

Note: 11=US$1.37

Fig. 1: Cubovision and Le Cube features, Feb-10

14
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
Stagnating TV operators look to hybrid
boxes to segment and expand audience

DTT Sky Italia Telecom Italia FastWeb 7

6
15
5

Subscribers (mil)
12
4
Users (mil)

9
3

6
2

3 1

0 0
3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 Broadband Triple play
and voice

Fig. 2: Italy, multichannel-TV users, 3Q08-3Q09 Fig. 3: Italy, Telecom Italia subscriptions, 3Q09

Italy has a strong satellite operator in Sky, which has a


near monopoly on pay TV; DTT adoption has been IPTV CanalSat
relatively fast in the past year, since the country has begun
its migration to digital television. Neither Telecom Italia’s 10
nor FastWeb’s IPTV service has made a significant impact
on the market. 8
Subscribers (mil)

Given this state of affairs, adding a DTT hybrid product 6


alongside its IPTV service looks to be a good strategy for
Telecom Italia. However, having persevered for so long
4
with only an IPTV offering, it has missed an opportunity,
since DTT penetration had already increased from 27% to
2
49% in the 12 months to end-3Q09.
0
There is clear demand for DTT, and the confusion 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09
regarding the switchover should have a positive impact on
sales of Cubovision. In Italy, analog TV is being phased out Fig. 4: France, pay TV subscriptions, 3Q08-3Q09
on a region-by-region basis, forcing people to consider
which DTT service or STB is best for them.
Using OTT to stay ahead
Until the launch of Cubovision, Telecom Italia had opted A very different set of problems has moved pay-TV
not to provide a DTT service, despite operating several of broadcaster Canal to introduce a hybrid box. Unlike
the country’s DTT multiplexes. DTT’s association with Telecom Italia, Canal already has a large subscription base
low-ARPU users might have been a factor in Telecom for its satellite-TV service. Another difference is that the
Italia’s late entry into the market. French pay-TV market is very competitive and is one of the
few in which operators have managed to introduce
OTT complements, rather than competes with, IPTV successful IPTV services. In four years the combined
Telecom Italia’s IPTV service and Cubovision both offer linear subscription base of the IPTV operators has exceeded that
TV and on-demand services. However, the operator is trying of Canalsat (see fig. 4), and IPTV is now the dominant
to sell both products to very different markets. IPTV service technology. Much of this growth has occurred because
is being offered to premium customers, who will pay for HD IPTV is bundled with broadband at a reduced price.
and the improved quality of service that managed services
bring. Cubovision is being marketed to lower-ARPU IPTV is a more interactive medium than satellite in that it
subscribers, who are unlikely to subscribe to IPTV. has a two-way communication between the user and the
TV, enabling VOD services to develop from push to pull.
In offering Cubovision, Telecom Italia can access a large However, it costs more to deliver live TV via broadband
segment of its broadband subscribers it had previously than via satellite. With Le Cube, Canal has released a
not served. It also means that its IPTV service no longer product that can take advantage of the two-way
needs to try to be attractive to the mass market and can communication of broadband delivery and the cost
concentrate on better serving premium users. efficiency of satellite delivery. It also means the operator
can deliver VOD to the TV, something people are much
more likely to pay for than VOD to the PC.

15
Making STBs attractive providing only an IPTV service. Cubovision is the tool
STB prices have been kept artificially low because they most suited to reducing churn, because Italians prefer
have been subsidized by service providers aiming to DTT to paid TV.
attract more subscribers. As a result, the STB has
become a commoditized item, and customers have Likewise, Canal has reacted to the popularity of IPTV in
become reluctant to pay for such a box, possibly France by pursuing a strategy that focuses on this
hindering adoption of Le Cube and Cubovision. particular challenge. It has done so not only in launching
Le Cube but also in allowing its Canalplay service to be
Despite having the cheaper box, Canal provides greater available on the Xbox 360. It is providing several routes to
incentives to its subscribers to acquire Le Cube. It has a access its content and give users the on-demand
relatively low price of a 175 (US$102.50) deposit and a services they desire.
subscription fee of 16 a month. Le Cube also comes with
additional content; users will be able to access popular Good intentions but fundamental flaws
programs on-demand before their first airing on linear TV The concept behind both boxes – expanding the content
and will be able to access a catch-up service for longer of an STB beyond linear TV – is sound, but both fall down
than the usual seven-day window after broadcast. in some major ways.
Another unique feature is that Le Cube comes with a
second decoder, which will enable linear TV to be viewed Cubovision broadly fails to deliver on what it promises,
on another TV connected to it; in effect, Le Cube is two and inclusion of its La7 service does not compensate for a
STBs for the price of one. Canal also designed Le Cube to lack of many other online services. YouTube via the TV is
be more visually attractive and have its own branding, a nice add-on but cannot be called a premium product.
making it quite different from many other STBs. Cubovision’s failure to include any other services from
competitive broadcasters is understandable, given
Telecom Italia have employed a similar approach. It too is Telecom Italia’s position in the TV market, but it severely
attempting to build Cubovision into a brand of its own, hampers the product.
giving it a distinctive design and separate Web site. It has
eschewed providing catch-up services, which would have The proposition for Le Cube is stronger, in that it offers at
probably incurred licensing costs, but it has added various least one popular third-party catch-up service in M6
Web TV services and YouTube as well as its own online- Replay. But it still offers broadly the same content as its
video services. This approach takes advantage of the regular subscribers can receive. Providing access to
connected capability of Cubovision to provide more than YouTube or other short-form video sites, for example,
just what is already available on linear TV. would enable Canal to, at little cost, provide something
beyond a mere extension of its core product. If it did this,
Telecom Italia has for several years been developing Le Cube would be a genuine hub for all users’ video
various online-video portals, such as La7 and user- demands, be that skateboarding cats or the newest
generated-content site Gulp. Cubovision has access to episode of Lost.
both of these services, which means it has access to
unique content. Additionally, it should drive traffic to both Both boxes are also priced too high. If Telecom Italia is
sites, and Telecom Italia should therefore benefit twice genuinely aiming for the mass market, 1200 for a settop
from this cross-promotion. box with some added bells and whistles is considerably
more expensive than its potential rivals. Le Cube is
Alongside the free content available on Cubovision, there cheaper, but save for the inclusion of catch-up TV
is a paid-for on-demand service. In February 2010, the services and getting some US shows earlier, there
only paid-for content available was episodes of Lost, but appears to be little benefit in users paying an extra 16 a
the lineup is likely to be expanded because it makes month on top of their regular satellite subscriptions.
Cubovision more attractive to users and should generate
revenues for the operator. Push VOD is not a USP
Cubovision and Le Cube are Internet-enabled but offer
The Informa view users little OTT content, preferring to provide limited
Operators must play what is in front of them walled-garden services.
Canal cannot be said to be failing in the TV market in quite
the same way that Telecom Italia is, but it is continuing to Push-VOD services are a good means by which operators
lose market share each quarter. Both companies’ can increase ARPU but are by no means cash cows. And
strategies show an awareness of their native markets. as hybrid boxes become more popular and numerous
players enter the market, providing VOD will no longer be
In Italy, DTT is proving popular and IPTV is not. For enough to make an STB stand out. And to limit the OTT
Telecom Italia to augment its strategy with a hybrid STB is capabilities to video is to ignore a great deal of online
a good move, because it gives it access to this much content that non-tech-savvy users would like to access
larger market. It shows an adaption to market conditions, on their TVs.
which is a better move then persisting, in isolation, with

16
© Informa Telecoms & Media 2010
Stagnating TV operators look to hybrid
boxes to segment and expand audience

Several OTT boxes offer services with unique features.


Boxee provides users with social features that enable
them to recommend movies and TV series to friends
using Facebook. Roku’s STB provides access to OTT
services such as photo-sharing Web site Flickr, Internet-
radio service Pandora and some Facebook interactivity.
These services have yet to enter the Italian market, but it is
inevitable that similar services will launch in the future.

There are, of course, major barriers to offering these


services – namely the cost to the operator of supporting
them, and the difficulty operators face in persuading
service providers to develop services for what remain
small platforms. But these are areas that service providers
might not be able to avoid in the future.

This analysis has been taken from the Intelligence Centre,


for more information about the service please visit:
www.intelligencecentre.net/broadband-internet/

Further resources

Across the 10 channels of the Intelligence Centre, clients have access to over 9,000 pieces of analysis, over
500 data and forecast spreadsheets, over 3,000 conference papers and over 21,000 comments. In addition,
the service features over 200 individual country profiles and over 1000 company profiles, all of which are updated
on a regular basis.

Here is just a selection of further content related to OTT and IPTV:

Analysis & Comment Data & Forecasts


n Operators ramp up their IPTV value-added-service n BBC iplayer performance, December 2009
efforts n Global IPTV forecasts to 2014
n Look beyond the E3 hype for proof of Microsoft’s n Internet-enabled TVs and corresponding services
march toward owning the digital home
n Global IPTV subscriptions to end 2009
n O2 looks for new strategy to combat DTT
n Global fixed broadband subscriptions to end 2009
n Internet-enabled TVs and corresponding services
n Global fixed broadband subscription forecasts,
n Cable: if you’ve got it, flaunt it 2010–2014
n 2010 heralds a new dawn for operator CDNs n Global conditional access systems (CAS) contracts

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