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Geometric Model of Population Growth

Assumes constant per capita rates of birth and death


variables Constants
t Nt Total births Total deaths ∆Nt (∆Nt)/Nt b d R
0 100 125 50 75 0.75 1.25 0.5 0.75
1 175 218.75 87.5 131.25 0.75
2 306.25 382.8125 153.125 229.6875 0.75
3 535.9375 669.921875 267.96875 401.953125 0.75
4 937.8906 1172.363281 468.9453125 703.417969 0.75
5 1641.309 2051.635742 820.6542969 1230.98145 0.75
6 2872.29 3590.362549 1436.14502 2154.21753 0.75
7 5026.508 6283.13446 2513.253784 3769.88068 0.75
8 8796.388 10995.48531 4398.194122 6597.29118 0.75
9 15393.68 19242.09929 7696.839714 11545.2596 0.75
10 26938.94 33673.67375 13469.4695 20204.2042 0.75
11 47143.14 58928.92906 23571.57162 35357.3574 0.75
12 82500.5 103125.6259 41250.25034 61875.3755 0.75
13 144375.9 180469.8452 72187.9381 108281.907 0.75
14 252657.8 315822.2292 126328.8917 189493.338 0.75
15 442151.1 552688.9011 221075.5604 331613.341 0.75
16 773764.5 967205.5769 386882.2308 580323.346 0.75
17 1354088 1692609.76 677043.9038 1015565.86 0.75
18 2369654 2962067.079 1184826.832 1777240.25 0.75
19 4146894 5183617.389 2073446.955 3110170.43 0.75
20 7257064 9071330.43 3628532.172 -7257064.34 -1
6000000 0.8

0.7
5000000
0.6
4000000
0.5 Nt
Total births
3000000 0.4
Total deaths
0.3 ∆Nt
2000000 (∆Nt)/Nt
0.2
1000000
0.1

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

6000000 0.8

0.7
5000000
0.6
4000000
0.5
Total births
3000000 0.4 Total deaths
∆Nt
0.3 (∆Nt)/Nt
2000000
0.2
1000000
0.1

0 0
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000
Comparison of Exponential and Geometric Models
constants
r= 0.25
R= 0.25
Calculated values
Nt Nt r R 160
Time(t) Exponential Geometric Exponential Geometric
140
0 1 1 0.25 0.25
1 1 1 0.25 0.25 120
2 2 2 0.25 0.25
100
3 2 2 0.25 0.25
4 3 2 0.25 0.25 80
5 3 3 0.25 0.25 60
6 4 4 0.25 0.25
7 6 5 0.25 0.25 40
8 7 6 0.25 0.25 20
9 9 7 0.25 0.25
0
10 12 9 0.25 0.25 0 5 10 15 20
11 16 12 0.25 0.25
12 20 15 0.25 0.25
13 26 18 0.25 0.25
14 33 23 0.25 0.25
15 43 28 0.25 0.25
16 55 36 0.25 0.25
17 70 44 0.25 0.25
18 90 56 0.25 0.25
19 116 69 0.25 0.25
20 148 87
Exponential
Geometric

0 15 20 25

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