IT1.14 - fact sheet http://tyndall.e-collaboration.co.uk/publications/fact_sheets/untitled/it1...

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How do people perceive and respond to climate change?

The success of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies depends on human decisions, which are based on an
awareness of climate change. Dr Simon Shackley, from UMIST and the Tyndall Centre, is leading a team combining social
science theory with computer simulation to develop a model of people's perceptions of climate change, how they
negotiate, and their subsequent responses.

The model will represent influential groups in society which share similar ideas and beliefs (known as discourse coalitions),
including non-government organisations business and political groups, which occur across institutions on local, national and
global scales. For example, one discourse coalition may be made up of people who strongly believe that human activities
are responsible for the observed increase in global temperature, while another may be made up of people who believe
natural variability is the main cause.

The researchers are identifying ways to numerically represent social groups - and the discourse coalitions to which they
contribute- based on social and political theory and data collected from surveys and detailed interviews. They will
investigate ways to simulate the interactions and negotiations within and between different groups, to identify ways that
climate change policies can evolve. The eventual aim is to understand how different groups and coalitions respond to
external events such as extreme climate changes and unexpected political developments. This will allow an analysis of
how beliefs change under various climate change and socio-political scenarios, including the implications for policy
preferences and outcomes.

The social beliefs model will provide feedbacks to improve the realism of the Tyndall Centre's Integrated Assessment
Model, as well as allowing critical input from stakeholders. The results will also provide a tool that allows decision makers
to analyse alternative climate change policy choices from the perspective of how they will influence the relative strength of
different belief groups.

A Tyndall Centre project is modelling people's perceptions of climate change and ways they change their behaviour to
reduce climate change or adapt to it.
© M. Robinson

More information

Contact the lead investigator of Project IT1.14 (Developing discourse coalitions to incorporate stakeholder perceptions and
responses within the Tyndall IA):
Dr Simon Shackley
Manchester School of Management, UMIST
PO Box 88, Manchester, M60 1QD, UK
Phone: +44 (0) 161 200 8781; Fax: +44 (0) 161 200 3505
Email: simon.shackley@manchester.ac.uk

Other researchers involved in this project are:

Ms Clair Gough, Manchester School of Management, UMIST
Dr Dennis Bray, GKSS Research Centre, Germany, and UMIST Visiting Fellow
Dr Andy Stirling, SPRU, University of Sussex

Project duration:
September 2001 to August 2003

Useful web sites:

The Tyndall Centre: www.tyndall.ac.uk
Manchester School of Management: www.manchester.ac.uk/management/research/researchtechman.htm

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IT1.14 - fact sheet http://tyndall.e-collaboration.co.uk/publications/fact_sheets/untitled/it1...

The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation: jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html

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